Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 09:15 | Report Abuse

Wise men say
Only fools rush in
But I can't help falling in love with you (Armada)

Posted by Hotstuff > 2023-06-13 09:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ltlim74 > 2023-06-13 09:40 | Report Abuse

4 years ago impairment charges about 1.6b due to Kraken downtime. What about this time?

Posted by KimSua > 2023-06-13 09:50 | Report Abuse

0.45 %net short position. Slowing down. 3.7 mil shares shorted on Monday. Slowed down but depends how's the buying support next #2/3 trading days

Posted by Mabel > 2023-06-13 09:59 | Report Abuse

KimSua 0.45 %net short position. Slowing down. 3.7 mil shares shorted on Monday. Slowed down but depends how's the buying support next #2/3 trading days
13/06/2023 9:50 AM

Great. Now Armada Battleship has made a strong recovery. It now climb 3.57%..

That's a good starts!

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 10:05 | Report Abuse

Mouse`s account suspended until August. 🤣

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-13 10:05 | Report Abuse

Did you know why?

ltlim74

4 years ago impairment charges about 1.6b due to Kraken downtime. What about this time?

24 minutes ago

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-13 10:13 | Report Abuse

selling looks over for now after yesterday margin call and T+4 for contra players. Recovery will depend on how soon Kraken will be operational again...

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 10:19 | Report Abuse

Kraken FPSO still got book value for impairment? All written off already right?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-13 10:26 | Report Abuse

Armada is a recovery stock.
At the lowest price of 0.42 is a big bargain.
Luckily I make full use of this cheap sales to sailang, hope to win big in this stock in the next 3 months.
Hopefully, laughing all the way to the bank the second time.

Posted by xuxu > 2023-06-13 10:36 | Report Abuse

Why so quiet here ?

Posted by bingoman > 2023-06-13 10:37 | Report Abuse

quiet no good?

Posted by bingoman > 2023-06-13 10:38 | Report Abuse

Due to repeated abuse posts, this account has been suspended from posting to the i3investor portal until 2023-08-08. Please refer to the Terms and Conditions of Use or Community Standards of this portal.

Posted by xuxu > 2023-06-13 10:55 | Report Abuse

The comments overwhelmed by all the nonsenses, really can't read at all. Back to normal now.

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-13 11:00 | Report Abuse

The comments were negative due to their interest or due to their envy or the worst is hoping losses for other investors. We live in a world where we hope the good will be dominant but life is not what we hope.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-13 11:03 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge Liang
Why so confidence,besides price drop a lot ? I only dare to bet small only due to uncertainty in Kraken.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-13 11:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-13 11:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 11:13 | Report Abuse

To recap what we know about the Kraken shut-in:

1. The shut-in was initiated on 20th May 2023 due to the transformer for the HSP failing
2. A restart was attempted within 48 hours but failed
3. Bumi Armada is losing USD450,000 in revenue each passing day the FPSO remains shut-in
4. Bumi Armada is not paying Enquest any compensation for the lack of production
5. The financial burden of repairing the transformers and alternative solutions to overcome the issue will be fully borne by Bumi Armada
6. There was a second attempt of a restart on 11 June 2023 - thus far, with no news and with heavy selling yesterday, we can only presume this failed
7. Even when the FPSO comes back online, it will be on a phased basis. Initially at 50% capacity (i.e. single train operations), and gradually over weeks to full production

Posted by RayLee > 2023-06-13 11:14 | Report Abuse

Start rebounding?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 11:15 | Report Abuse

I am actually rather disappointed in the Bumi Armada management. They issued a vague update to Bursa Malaysia on 2nd June, and radio silence since then. They ought to appraise minority shareholders of what's going on. Plus my emails to their Investor Relations team go unanswered. It's sad that I have to reach out to Enquest's investor relations team instead to find out what the heck is going on.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 11:22 | Report Abuse

Yes I also wrote to Bumi IR, no response at all.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 11:28 | Report Abuse

My honest opinion, IF AND ONLY IF Bumi Armada is able to repair the transformer and the Kraken FPSO is back to full production in 6 months time (i.e. November 2023), then buying in at these price levels is a complete no brainer.

To make matters sweeter, the Cameia FPSO award will be officially completed within the next 4 to 6 weeks, and Bumi Armada will be announcing a FCSIU win within the next 2 weeks. The Mumbai FSRU is also a go, but I am unsure when the official award will be signed/announced.

Debt has been aggressively repaid, so there will be lots of interest savings moving forward. The Fed rate hikes are slowing down, so the "finance costs" per quarter should start going down appreciable here on out. This will only be strengthened further in Q2 2023 with the sale of the Armada Claire FPSO and the final OSV, i.e. Armada Tuah 300.

Unofficially, the TGT FPSO has also secured a contract extension to December 2026 (from December 2024).

A lot to be excited about, the future looks bright, and now is the time to accumulate IF AND ONLY you believe the Kraken FPSO will be back to full production within 6 months time. If however, the Kraken issue turns out to be terminal (highly unlikely, but you never know), then maybe, just maybe, it is game over for Bumi Armada. Or at least, game over in terms of the stock going on to be a multi-bagger.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 11:33 | Report Abuse

Moral d the story: One transformer is worth billions.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 11:34 | Report Abuse

If you know people working in Bumi Armada, they will tell you that Bumi Armada had been awarded a Conditional Letter of Award (CLOA) for the ESPCC of the Cameia FPSO from Total Energies back in September 2022.

It is unfair that they did not announce to Bursa Malaysia. I recall asking this question in the AGM but the CEO says they do not comment on "rumours". A CLOA is not a rumour. This creates an uneven playing field where the insiders know far in advance of an award materializing before an official announcement is made to Bursa Malaysia.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 11:40 | Report Abuse

One bunch of very pricey mat salleh are running BAB. When they deliver consistently, it’s ok. But when they allow transformer failure to wipe off billions in market cap of BAB, the shareholders have to be more activist.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-13 11:44 | Report Abuse

QR is 150+ million but cost is billions when it contributes at most 35% of profits? Maybe your AI isn't working LOL


sense maker

Moral d the story: One transformer is worth billions.

9 minutes ago

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-13 11:46 | Report Abuse

3. Bumi Armada is losing USD450,000 in revenue each passing day the FPSO remains shut-in - Is this net sales? Or assumed lost sales?
5. The financial burden of repairing the transformers and alternative solutions to overcome the issue will be fully borne by Bumi Armada - How much is this>

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-13 11:48 | Report Abuse

While naysayers continue to dish out BS, I laugh all the way to the bank wakakakakak

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-13 11:52 | Report Abuse

I am very disappointed with Bumi Armada IR, SC, Bursa and IB's analyst.

My complaint letter only received SC case number and Bursa reference number and no-response from IR or IB's analyst.

My biggest suprised is why until now Bursa has not yet query Bumi Armada to response to IB's analyst report.

I will write a letter to Bursa CEO this weekend on bursa failure to ensure a timely full diclosure of relavant imformation to investing public.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 11:56 | Report Abuse

BAB’s announcement was concise, complete and complies with all regulatory requirements.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 11:59 | Report Abuse

@Ravi Kumar

3. USD450,000 is referring to the bareboat charter per day, it is Bumi Armada's "topline revenue" for the Kraken FPSO. Since the costs are relatively fixed in nature, we can assume that all of the loss in revenue will result in a corresponding decrease in profit. Assuming net margin of 30%, the net profit would typically be USD135,000 but due to a loss of revenue, the net loss would now be USD315,000.

5. No idea. Some analysts have said RM50m but they're plucking it from their behind. Might be a lot higher, or significantly lower as well.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 12:03 | Report Abuse

So if we take Bumi Armada's "steady" core net profit per quarter to be RM200mil, then the net profit will reduce by around RM185mil (USD450,000 * 4.6 * 90 days) for that quarter, wiping out pretty much all other profits. This is excluding cost of repairs and associated costs.

Hence this is an extremely material event for Bumi Armada.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-13 12:03 | Report Abuse

Thanks all for the comments and updates. Thanks God that no more spam and more sharings in this forum.

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-13 12:05 | Report Abuse

The rebound will only happen once we get news on the restart.

Posted by success2628 > 2023-06-13 12:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-13 12:06 | Report Abuse

Thanks to I3 Investor management stopping the noisy Mouse from causing further nuisance in this forum. This forum is now back what it should be : Good information and opinions sharing instead of flooded by incessant insults among a few nonsense participants. Cheers!

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-13 12:06 | Report Abuse

Also, something I would like to add is that the Cameia FPSO preparations are already in full swing. Bumi Armada has been incurring significant expenses to get the team ready and everything in place. For now, these are "hidden losses". Expect a handy gain (i.e. reversal of the hidden losses" when the revenue starts coming in) once the Cameia FPSO is official awarded to Bumi Armada.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 12:10 | Report Abuse

Precisely because the impact is extremely material that BAB cannot issue any further guidance on this incident till the issue has been fully resolved and production resumes apace. That will take weeks as guided by the announcement.
Suffice to say that it’s very costly, may result in impairment loss, and may even cause prolonged production outage since many remediation efforts all failed. Quarterly results will show the damage come Aug and Nov and even Dec 23.

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-13 12:18 | Report Abuse

I understand there are 4 wholly owned and 3 jointly owned FPSOs in Bumi Armada fleet; though Kraken is important in the revenue generation contributing to about 30 % revenue but I cant imagine how a pump/transformer issue on Kraken can be deemed as a potential game over matter for Armada in the worst case scenario. Further more the transformer is accessible outside the well as I heard from this forum. Does it needs 6 months to replace a transformer ?

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 12:19 | Report Abuse

BAB’s non-executive directors are all very senior and highly experienced, and will ensure full compliance with disclosure requirements.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 12:31 | Report Abuse

Repair cost and non-production lost cost are small amount.

The most important is the 95% SLA, once this gone. EnQuest going to pay just 70 to 80 % of daily charter rate.
Lost cost = 30% x USD 500k x remaining working days.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-13 12:41 | Report Abuse

The only news that market is interesting in is the restart of Kraken.
Any other good news woud be in fact a catastrophic waste. No significant impact on share price with the prolong shut in.

Why bother with new contract if you cannot operate an existing project, that would be the concern of investors that I agree with. The shut is has been going on for too long.

In my opinion, top management of BAB made many mistakes in the past. There is crisis after crisis. Impairment. Sale. Litigation. They do NOT focus on the performance. Greedy Gary has only free share bonus on his mind.

However, there are 1000 of employees, many dedicated. They make things happen when management is NOT in their way.


_____________________________________________________
Hope it can wait until shut in is resolved.
Some good news to share. Two project announcements are imminent:

1. Floating Carbon Capture & Storage (to be announced in June 2023)
2. Cameia FPSO EPSCC (to be announce by July 2023)

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-13 12:49 | Report Abuse

We have many experts who come up with numbers from their arse billions la this la that la. Logically can be 30 million in profits based on 20th May stop
Felix888
Repair cost and non-production lost cost are small amount.

The most important is the 95% SLA, once this gone. EnQuest going to pay just 70 to 80 % of daily charter rate.
Lost cost = 30% x USD 500k x remaining working days.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-13 13:05 | Report Abuse

One transformer costs billions. This bill shareholders have already paid via market cap collapse. I can see some forummers are engineers and couldn’t understand this.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 13:07 | Report Abuse

This one company paid for it right? Free shares for the MD.

Posted by linheng > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

Management Incentive Plan - 4,526,300 shares at 0.663.
TODAY NEW LISTING FOR MANAGEMENT SHARES. 4.526M SHARES ISSUE AT 0.663

Posted by klee > 2023-06-13 13:34 | Report Abuse

Ular disappeared ady ,this stock now has a chance. ....kikiki

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-13 13:35 | Report Abuse

I would like to remind everyone that HSP does NOT have a transformer because it is HYDRAULIC (not electric as ESP).
HSP downhole pump is driven by a water turbine, also located downhole, coupled to it.
There is a pump with a transfromer called HSP POWER PUMP that pumps water to this turbine.
This pump is located on module M40 on the topside. That module has many injection pumps that can inject 225 kbpd.
So there are probably many similar pumps with transformers that could be 'creatively' used to start up.

This FPSO is NOT going anywhere. Problem will be fixed. All equipment downhole is OK, so no need for well intervention. Topside equipment at North Sea can be efficiently procured as there are many assets an services nearby.

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-13 14:13 | Report Abuse

Transformer cost billions? Made of gold?/ wakakaka even the highest end IC making equipment is USD 280 million wakakaka

Posted by hohlaiyet88 > 2023-06-13 14:30 | Report Abuse

@Hotstuff Me too, hope to remove all unrelated post. Very waste time and only read selective post.