Posted by derrtan > 2022-02-18 21:56 | Report Abuse

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-would-seek-to-bring-iran-into-oil-supply-deal-2767181

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-02-18 22:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-18 23:37 | Report Abuse

already announced

1) Nuclear agreement to be reached in days

2) Iran will join OPEC+

3) Iran will produce less oil than before and get higher USD with OPEC+

=> so unBidden dug his own grave

oil is forecast to reach USD120 once Iran joins OPEC+

another conclusion => Trump was correct !!!

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-18 23:46 | Report Abuse

Iran is one of the five founding members of OPEC.

kakakakakakaka

UnBidden is such a stupeeeeeeeeeeeeed feller

Posted by derrtan > 2022-02-19 00:10 | Report Abuse

Brent is recovering from lowest USD90.27 to USD93.27...very volatile...monday a lot will chase again

Posted by Kakume > 2022-02-19 00:23 | Report Abuse

Oil price as long as stay above $70, HIB will have PAT 600Mil. No need $80-90.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-19 00:30 | Report Abuse

oil even at USD120.00 is still cheap compared with historical prices..

just look at share prices now example Microsoft and back then when oil was USD100.00


Posted by Kakume > Feb 19, 2022 12:23 AM | Report Abuse

Oil price as long as stay above $70, HIB will have PAT 600Mil. No need $80-90.

Posted by Moneymore > 2022-02-19 00:42 | Report Abuse

How come Ambank and PBB TP only RM1.3, MBB TP 1.70?

Posted by mf > 2022-02-19 05:50 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones 34,079.18 -232.85 0.68%
Nasdaq 13,548.07 -168.654 1.23%

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-19 07:28 | Report Abuse

bimb tp 1.40. very good article wrote on hibby in The Star today..

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-19 07:30 | Report Abuse

All the sun, star, earth, moon, mars ...other planet are aligned together

Posted by Moneymore > 2022-02-19 09:36 | Report Abuse

On how much Repsol’s acquisition will contribute towards Hibiscus, Pereira says that a third-party expert, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd, estimates that the total revenue contribution from the new assets would reach US$271mil (RM1.13bil) in 2022.

As for Ebitda, RPS Energy in its mid-2021 report estimates that it could be in the range of US$135mil (RM564.91mil) for the new assets. With oil prices now north of US$90 (RM376.61), further upside could be possible.

Posted by Moneymore > 2022-02-19 09:39 | Report Abuse

Profit of RM600-700Mil a year is reasonable estimation. Hibiscus TP will revise upward after next QR in May-22.

Posted by zhangzuode > 2022-02-19 09:49 | Report Abuse

Moneymore, RPS estimate revenue of US$217 (RM1.13b) in 2022, FY or CY? Thanks in advance.

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-19 10:00 | Report Abuse

the weekly edge also reported that they can sell the 2C resources to monetize their asset in this good oil price

Posted by Kakume > 2022-02-19 10:08 | Report Abuse

Group annual Gross Revenue = 23000 x 360 x 4 x 80 = RM2.7Bil, that is min. PAT should be in the range of RM500-700M.

Posted by Nepo > 2022-02-19 10:19 | Report Abuse

I believe can buy @ RM 1.18. This is super stock right now.

Posted by malpac63 > 2022-02-19 10:46 | Report Abuse

They keep telling us the EBITDA figures. Last quarter, EBITDA was $140M and net profit $48M. Something to keep an eye out for.

Posted by twynstar > 2022-02-19 10:58 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus Petroleum on a roll


https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/02/19/hibiscus-petroleum-on-a-roll

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-02-19 12:18 | Report Abuse

The recent Q2 EPS 2.42 was based on the oil price of 75usd. If using the conservative price of 75usd per Boe the Q3 n Q4 EPS should be 2.42 + 2.42 and the annualised total EPS should be around 7.26 +Q1's 2.07 =9.33. So the non Repsol asset will contribute 2.5M to 2.7 M Boe with 9.33 EPS. In addition, the Repsol asset will contribute 2.5M Boe too, therefore another extra 9.33 EPS let's say based on 75usd per boe. Thus the total projected annualised current Financial year Total EPS is 9.33 +9.33 =18.66 cents. Therefore Maybank IB's TP RM1.7 looks very reasonable n conservative. Again If based on the 90usd per Boe the total EPS should be well over 20 cents EPS. So the TP of RM 2.00 is also very much reasonable and possible based on PE of 10
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hibiscus-petroleum-2q-net-profit-jumps-four-folds-higher-crude-oil-prices

What they say about oil prices in 2022 and 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/oil-investing-goldman-sachs-on-energy-outlook-oil-at-100-possible.html

Further more oil is a very good hedge in the rate hike and inflationary cycle. https://biv.com/article/2022/01/commodities-good-hedge-against-inflation-analysts

The current Ukraine n Russia tention seems to be creating a perfect storm to push the oils price beyond 100usd in short term

Considering all these factors, the people with longer term in mind on Hibiscus can probably see that Hibiscus can spring a big surprise on its EPS upside potentials in the coming quarters. Looking forward to Potential rerating in TPs by research houses too

Posted by twynstar > 2022-02-19 12:26 | Report Abuse

Pioneer CEO Warns US Shale Can't Increase Supply Even If Biden Asks


Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield told analysts Thursday morning that its strategy to boost oil production from 0% to 5% won't be affected even if oil prices surpass $100. "There's no change for us," he said, adding, "$100 oil, $150 oil, we're not going to change our growth rate."


He noted private producers in the Permian Basin need to be "reined in" for their high growth rates. He said a few private firms are raising output "at 15-20% are going to run out of inventory fairly quickly." High growth output isn't sustainable, he continued.


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/pioneer-ceo-warns-us-shale-cant-increase-supply-even-if-biden-asks

Posted by Kukubai > 2022-02-19 12:34 | Report Abuse

Tp 1.40 is in the making next week

Posted by Kukubai > 2022-02-19 12:34 | Report Abuse

Early next week

Posted by twynstar > 2022-02-19 12:50 | Report Abuse

Most of the new capacity to produce oil in the global markets has come from the U.S. Tight Oil (fracking) and the Canadian Tar sands (also called oil sands)

The significance of this is that this extra oil production capacity stabilized global demand for crude oil, as conventional oil production plateaued in 2005. U.S. shale (tight oil, fracking with horizontal drilling) contributed 71.4% of new oil supply since 2005. By contrast, OPEC has added 20% of total supply, barely enough to cover losses from countries whose production has been declining.

Since 2008, the Shale revolution (tight oil or fracked oil) has increased global oil supply which stabilized increased demand. US tight oil produced in August 2019 was 7.73 million barrels per day, approximately 8.37% of global supply. The U.S. tight oil sector accounted for 98% of global oil production growth in 2018.


So, now the US shale producer told us that they can't increase supply even if Biden asks....

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-19 12:52 | Report Abuse

WASHINGTON — President Biden said on Friday that the United States has intelligence showing that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has made a final decision to invade Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin#biden-holds-urgent-talks-with-nato-leaders-amid-growing-signs-that-war-is-imminent-in-ukraine

Posted by bb2ualways > 2022-02-19 13:50 | Report Abuse

As mention earlier with rebound closing at 1.18 will be the base for the next strong rally to 1.50
Good luck to all.

Surely bro Pang72 need to upgrade his X70.

Posted by zhangzuode > 2022-02-19 16:14 | Report Abuse

twynstar, thanks for sharing. Yes, very bullish that shale oil meeting their limit.

Do not forget the negative goodwill that would be added, should push eps further. This reflect the excellent acquisition price (super low at today's oil price) - excellent management foresight.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-02-19 18:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-19 20:15 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd is clearly riding nicely on tHibiscus Petroleum Bhd is clearly riding nicely on the upcycle of oil prices. On Thursday it posted a second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ expectations. And as Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research points out, the profits have yet to take into account earnings from the recently completed acquisition of assets from Spain’s Repsol.
“Hibiscus will consolidate Repsol’s earnings from the third quarter of the financial year 2022 (Q3‘FY22). We are positive on this transaction. The deal was done at an

undemanding price and instantly lifts Hibiscus’ production by three times. It also offers Hibiscus the prospect to diversify its assets portfolio to 17% gas (versus 2% gas previously) – a crucial aspect, in its environmental, social, and governance and energy transition quest,” Maybank IB analyst Liaw Thong Jung says in a post-results report yesterday.
Hibiscus’ net profit for the Q2 of FY22 quadrupled to RM48.49mil, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation or Ebitda stood at RM139.9mil. For the six-month period ended Dec 31, 2021, net profit rose to RM90.01mil, from RM22.05mil in the same period before.
The pure upstream oil and gas (O&G) player with a portfolio of assets in Malaysia, North Sea and Oceania, did not declare a dividend for the quarter.

Considering this rise in cash flows, coupled with the rising oil price and earnings contributions from Repsol, will Hibiscus declare more dividends going forward?
Hibiscus says this is a possibility.
“We paid a total dividend of 1.5 sen in respect of the financial year 2021. This dividend was declared during a period when oil prices were not as strong as they are now.
“Crude oil prices have only recently strengthened and we hope that they remain stable at these levels. If they do for an extended period of time and we provide adequately for any capital expenditure commitments for projects that we have in the pipeline, the board may consider declaring dividends of a higher quantum,” managing director Dr Kenneth Gerard Pereira tells StarBizWeek. It is interesting to note that Hibiscus profitability in the Q2 of FY22 was based on an average crude oil price of US$72 (RM301.28) to US$75 (RM313.84).

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-19 20:16 | Report Abuse

Oil prices are now on a tear, which is making analysts become more bullish on the earnings potential of oil and gas companies like Hibiscus.


Notes Maybank IB, “Oil is nearing US$100 (RM418.45). The demand-supply mismatch in the oil market is prevalent, strained by prolonged under-investment since 2014. The adverse situation will extend over the next two to three years, resulting in oil prices sustained at elevated levels.”
As a result, Maybank IB has raised earnings estimates for Hibiscus from FY22-FY24 by 36%, 35% and 28% respectively, noting that the group should be generating strong free cash flows during those financial years.
The Repsol element
In the middle of last year, Hibiscus announced that it was buying Spanish energy major Repsol Exploración SA’s upstream assets in Malaysia and Vietnam for US$212.5mil (RM889.48mil). The deal, which comprised five production-sharing contracts with Vietnam being a new market for Hibiscus, was completed late last month.

On how much Repsol’s acquisition will contribute towards Hibiscus, Pereira says that a third-party expert, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd, estimates that the total revenue contribution from the new assets would reach US$271mil (RM1.13bil) in 2022.
As for Ebitda, RPS Energy in its mid-2021 report estimates that it could be in the range of US$135mil (RM564.91mil) for the new assets. With oil prices now north of US$90 (RM376.61), further upside could be possible.
“As an operator of the newly acquired assets, we are well-positioned to build on our successful operational track record to further enhance value in 2022 and beyond,” he says. The group expects to produce about 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) for the period between the completion and the end of FY22 from the acquired assets, on top of its production in North Sabah and the Anasuria oilfield in the United Kingdom.
Refreshed five-year mission

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-19 20:16 | Report Abuse

Having recently “refreshed” its mission for the 2022-2026 period, Hibiscus aims to achieve a target production of 35,000 to 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and maintain its proven and probable (2P) reserves at about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2026. It also aims to become a net-zero emission producer by 2050.
Under its previous five-year plan covering the period of 2017-2021, Pereira describes the group has having “materially delivered” on its mission. This was to achieve production of about 20,000 barrels of oil per day and build a 2P reserves base of 100 million barrels.
In its pursuit of growth, Hibiscus intends to maintain a geographic focus in the North Sea and South-East Asia.

“We will continue to assess future growth opportunities in these area, but at these oil price levels, we will also be cognisant of the downside oil price risks,” he says, adding that the group also intends to address environmental concerns associated with its business and “this will be done in a meaningful and financially responsible manner”.
Recalling the last two years, Pereira says capital discipline and fiscal prudence enabled it to ride out the challenges of Covid-19 and the low oil price environment.
“We continued to deliver positive cashflows. Mainly, we deferred discretionary capital expenditure to preserve cash.
“We also felt it was important to keep all our team fully employed throughout the period and to pay our contractors promptly. And we did so,” he shares.
With business activities returning to normalcy, Pereira says the main priority now is to

integrate the acquired Repsol assets into the group’s day-to-day operations to maximise value. Over at the UK, a Hibiscus subsidiary project, namely the Anasuria Hibiscus’ Marigold cluster in the North Sea fields, has been identified as one of six projects to be fast-tracked for approvals by its government.
Pereira says the group is “pleasantly surprised” by the development and will be meeting the regulators there in the coming weeks to understand their expectations.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-19 20:17 | Report Abuse

“We are extremely bullish about the Marigold opportunity and at current oil prices, it is much more valuable than when we initially made the acquisition. The Marigold project provides us with a material, long-term growth opportunity in the UK North Sea,” he says. The group’s merger and acquisition track record has caught the attention of the investing community.
The company’s shares had risen about 40% since the start of the year, closing at RM1.18 yesterday. Market capitalisation stood at RM2.37bil.
BIMB Securities Research has a RM1.40 target price on the stock, pegged at 1.3 times

price-to-book to its FY23 forecast book value. This is fair, according to the research firm with Hibiscus in asset acquisition drive amidst foreign PSC leaving the country.
Meanwhile, AmInvestment Bank Research said based on the enterprise value (EV) for the group’s expanded 2P reserves, the stock is currently trading at US$5.86 (RM24.52) a barrel, which was an unjustified discount of 55% to its closest peer, UK-listed EnQuest and 64% of regional average. It has RM1.30 fair value on the stock. PublicInvest Research has a 12-month target price of RM1.31, while Maybank IB’s target price is RM1.70.
Maybank IB says the stock is the most leveraged O&G play to capitalise on the strong energy push given its relatively low lifting cost.“Our target price is conservatively pegged to US$10 (RM41.86)/boe of EV/2P valuation, which is undemanding vis-à-vis its peers that trade at higher multiples”. The research firm says it prefers this valuation method over others for it captures the cyclical nature of the operations and takes into account balance sheet and cashflows aspects.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-19 20:40 | Report Abuse

Russia-Ukraine news: All talks, no actions. We need a war for Brent oil to beat Iran output and not the other way round.

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-02-19 20:51 | Report Abuse

Mon brent oil cross usd100

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-02-19 22:13 | Report Abuse

Suspect a correction to near rm 1 or below.Just too fast.

Posted by lloydlim > 2022-02-19 22:31 | Report Abuse

https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=2862782

Posted by Unfair > 2022-02-20 07:17 | Report Abuse

Penergy QR, dividend why nobody talk here? Worse or different sector?

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-02-20 07:46 | Report Abuse

@pang72 I need to ask you something. I have private messaged you.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-20 09:20 | Report Abuse

Michael Kwok Suspect a correction to near RM 1 or below. Just too fast.
=======================================================
15 Feb 2022: From 1.12 to 1.23 back down to 1.13
18 Feb 2022: From 1.14 to 1.26 back down to 1.18
The above are disappointed daily corrections.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-02-20 09:27 | Report Abuse

The phycology calm down factor is the 3 times earning from Repsol in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-20 09:57 | Report Abuse

if Hibby is a cornered stock like MrDIY it will be RM20.00 already

compared with MrDIY is NOT allowed to expand ...only inside Malaysia and Brunei, physical and internet. Malaysia physical and internet market is extremely unbelievably small.

Hibby can expand anywhere in the whole wide world on Earth and some say Venus, Mars and Alpha Centauri as well

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-20 10:34 | Report Abuse

the oil cartel has resisted pressure from Biden and other consumer to accelerate the pace of output increase

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-20 10:35 | Report Abuse

as long as OPEC is unwilling or unable to do more, oil could climb further, the IEA said recently

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-20 10:37 | Report Abuse

in this circumstance, us 100 is certainly within the realm of what we could see in the next few months.

Posted by ks5S > 2022-02-20 10:37 | Report Abuse

said Chevron CEO Mike wirth

Posted by anonymous91 > 2022-02-20 13:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by lloydlim > 2022-02-20 18:39 | Report Abuse

Not few months later, we shall see it few days later.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-20 20:05 | Report Abuse

Between 1.18 to 1.23 on monday morning is good to buy.

Limit Hibby to between 30% to 70% of your portfolio depending on your risk appetite.

Never forget...... those who all in Serba 100% of portfolio, lost 100% of their money.

Posted by twynstar > 2022-02-20 23:07 | Report Abuse

agree with you, i3lurker.

Sure will maximize hibiscus in my portfolio if got chance to buy the dip, may be around 80sen. Will wait patiently.

but hibiscus is quite different with Serba in view of :

1) hibiscus is debt free company

2) hibiscus sells North Sabah crude oil to one company only, which is Trafigura and share 50% profit with Petronas. So it is quite difficult to manipulate the accounting.

3) hibiscus sells Anasuria cluster crude oil to one company only, which is BP Oil and share 50% profit with Ping Petroleum. So it is also quite difficult to manipulate the accounting.

4) hibiscus has no asset or project in Middle East. hibiscus got bad experience in Oman business before.

5) hibiscus plans to acquire another asset in Southeast Asia, not in Middle East

6) For next 3 years, hibiscus will be quite busy with Repsol assets, Teal West Project and Marigold Project.

7) hibiscus management team has excellent track record. Shell, Exxon Mobil, Repsol, Petronas, Petrovietnam, BP Oil and Trafigura trust Hibiscus and quite happy to do business with hibiscus

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-20 23:10 | Report Abuse

clients of Maybank, Public Bank and AmInvest will be buying on monday.

Thats what starting coverage of Hibby and issuing a TP means