Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-24 07:27 | Report Abuse

"fishing for big marlin"
Good phrase. great to learn this from you. Yes, don't be a fool to buy new call warrants issued by IB. All selling at very high implied volatility relative to the historical volatility of the underlying shares, meaning hell of expensive, to the naive punters. I wonder why Bursa never bother to protect the public from the vultures.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-10-28 21:36 | Report Abuse

TA Securities has come up with this TP for Sime - 11.46! http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/11296.jsp These analysts from the various investment banks have had their hits and misses but if this one does get to the TP before the CR expires, this could turn out to be the best trade I've ever made.

Posted by captros > 2012-10-29 00:39 | Report Abuse

Mat, Sime performance last year was fantastic. Can they match or exceed last year achievement this year. Was told that their Management is proposing an management performance reward system (million of share to Chairman, CEO, Vice presidents etc), a reward to the top brass. It look like another good year for sime?

Posted by beginner_1 > 2012-11-01 10:42 | Report Abuse

how come today never move?

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 10:44 | Report Abuse

Sime-CR @ 2sen. Any opinion?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 10:55 | Report Abuse

0.02 is better than 0.04. Will be in the money if Sime gets to 9.60. Your guess is as good as mine, but I feel it's definitely achievable with a counter like this. However, have to consider the present general market sentiments. It's definitely a bearish trend where low might become lower. At the same time, there's the year-end window-dressing period to consider... if it does happen. And with four months left to the warrants expiry, CR at this price is a reasonable bet.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 11:10 | Report Abuse

Thanks MC. With the possible delay in the GE, I could detect a sense of relief, and the index has improved. The Telcos are 'flying'; hopefully to be followed by the others, may be Sime as well. How low can CR go? Obviously, 0.015, 0.005 or 0.000; which are quite small in my opinion. Unfortunately, my bullets are low.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 11:14 | Report Abuse

Yeah, I was surprised to see some of the quality counters suddenly clawing back and exceeding yesterday's close. The telcos, SK Petro etc. No sign of that with Sime yet - I'm in a dilemma as to whether to buy the CR at this price or wait. Darn! I hate the indecisiveness.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-28 11:17 | Report Abuse

ledzepp & MC: not worth the risk this one, the expiry date doesn't side us the retail trader. that 4 months is the exactly the uncertain period of GE to be call anytime. As friendly advise, if got chance to escape, escape this Sime-CR. go after the underlying instead where you can hold forever.

Looks for Petgas-CG, my entry yesterday is at 0.09. Regardless how fund managers dump this last few days, they still will come back after profit taking unless they can find something better to replace Petgas in their portfolios.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 11:22 | Report Abuse

Thanks, passerby. You helped make the decision for me. It's okay even if it were to go up after this. I can live with that - had missed so many others before:-) It's the indecisiveness that really troubles me. Anyway, I think I'm going to just watch and keep the remaining capital for future opportunities.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 11:27 | Report Abuse

Tq passerby. Perhaps holding cash is better right now; diving only if a big catch is guaranteed

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-28 11:27 | Report Abuse

all my watch list are in red yesterday except this 2 - Three A Resources & Oldtown. You might want to consider that during the uncertain period

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 13:41 | Report Abuse

There is a double whammy for Sime CR today. First it is the adjusted price ex-dividend of 20 sen I think, and then further drop of 17 sen more for Sime. This affects the price of cr. The earlier one is expected and should have been incorporated into the price of cr whereas the later was not expected. In percentage wise the loss of cr is very high as expected because of the high effective leverage about 20 times. cr at 2 sen when Sime at 9.08 is still worth a punt to me (i am really a gambler) with premium of 9.4% and effective leverage of 25 times. To appreciate this one must understand the mind of a gambler. The only problem is the impending general election which makes a lot of people nervous about the equity market. But then again this uncertainty might have been incorporated into the price already. When Sime price get closer to 9.50, the exercise price, the % change in cr in relation to Sime is very high.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 14:38 | Report Abuse

Thanks kcchong. Currently, 2,000 on offer at 2 sen. Buy cost about RM4,000 + fees. A 0.5 sen increase - you'll stand to make about RM900. Will it rises 0.5 sen? Go or no go? What's in the gambler's mind?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 14:51 | Report Abuse

ledzepp I really don't know whether cr will rise to 5 sen or not. That depend on the performance of the underlying share Sime. RHB today gives a target price of Sime Darby at RM10.30. If you buy cr at 2 sen and keep for 4 months until expiry and Sime rise up to RHB target price, you would have made 400%! Of course in between you might be able to sell cr at high price and even make more profit. That is the "hope" of a gambler's mind.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 15:01 | Report Abuse

kcchong, MC - now with the slide in Sime, I think you can get CR at 0.015. And kc - I'm looking for a rise of HALF sen, not 5 sen, in my calculation.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-28 15:03 | Report Abuse

index being pull down by Sime now

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 15:31 | Report Abuse

ledzepp. yeah ah, can get for 1.5 sen. Just got some. Aiyah I always catch falling knife.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-28 15:34 | Report Abuse

you got a lot of money, consider donate it to market :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 15:34 | Report Abuse

passerby, donate some more? I have been donating already for this bloody Sime.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-28 15:37 | Report Abuse

lol & you are still pumping in ? :)

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 15:52 | Report Abuse

You are right, it actually went to 0.015! At this price, regardless of the mother's slide, I think I'm going to just jump in and buy.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 15:56 | Report Abuse

Mat, seems hard to get. Just check my order, only get 1200 shares! Hack i order 2m shares!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-28 15:56 | Report Abuse

Oop, one zero more

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 16:00 | Report Abuse

Now the buyers' lots are building up. I may have been a bit late. But have to stick to this price because I didn't intend to buy earlier. This would qualify as "impulse buying", which I shouldn't be doing. But the price...

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-11-28 16:12 | Report Abuse

Alamak I'm queuing at 0.01

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-30 10:49 | Report Abuse

0.015 is just too low to ignore given its expiry date of 29/3/13 and the ex price of 9.50 which is very reasonable. At a 5:1 ratio, I'll break even at 9.58. Of course, if Sime goes near that, the CR will be significantly more than 0.015 - 0.04 isn't impossible. Worst-case situation - Sime goes down and remains there. But I think there'll be people willing to take the CR at 0.005. Percentage-wise, the loss would be heavy. But money-wise, I've lost 0.015 before:-)

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 11:46 | Report Abuse

sime-cr at 1.5cts is a good buy I will let go at 2cts

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 11:51 | Report Abuse

those who the price want to hold I think u will be able to get at least 3 cts the price b4 it fell.

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 16:19 | Report Abuse

should see an upside on Monday

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 16:30 | Report Abuse

2 cts is a good buy or a 1/2 ct upside on monday

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 16:33 | Report Abuse

I will wait now to sell at 2.5cts

Posted by richman > 2012-11-30 16:39 | Report Abuse

sime should rebound strong on Monday pulling the CR up.cheers

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-30 17:27 | Report Abuse

Regardless of Sime's slide over the past week, I feel CR has gone down too much. Shouldn't have been at 1.5 sen considering it still has 4 months, with the ex price not that far away. If Sime goes on a rebound, plus if the year-end rally materialises, this might turn out to be one of my best buys for this year. The downside risk looks minimal.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-12 17:19 | Report Abuse

Sime has been creeping up quietly ever since the dividend ex date and the price going down below 9.00. Added another 8 sen today but the CR is still at 0.015. 9.20 isn't too far from the ex price of 9.50 which is definitely achievable. Expires 29/3/2013.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-12-19 10:07 | Report Abuse

richman- you're rich today

Posted by richman > 2012-12-19 10:43 | Report Abuse

I am rich if i had helped others too make some gains.In this case i think many did not buy am i right.I was the only promoter with no response from anybody.

Posted by richman > 2012-12-19 10:45 | Report Abuse

shouls ess more upside coming the mum jumpstart so it shud go higher next stop 9.50

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-12-19 11:03 | Report Abuse

I was in this earlier, but now I'm scared since the expiry is nearer.

Posted by richman > 2012-12-19 11:11 | Report Abuse

do not blame you i was scared too all these CW must learn to run fast

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-12-19 11:16 | Report Abuse

Now I'm casting my net on astro-cd, waiting for the mum to go up. But doesn't look like it. Never know this window dressing may come to astro. Hopefully

Posted by richman > 2012-12-19 12:15 | Report Abuse

cb better longer expiry but ex price a bit more expensive

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-19 13:18 | Report Abuse

Looks like Sime is giving me a year-end bonus after all:-) Now I'm getting a bit greedy too - take it now or wait for more? It's quite near to the ex price, and there's still 3 months to go. On the other hand, have to also remember the saying of "Make hay while the sun shines", and this matter of momentum which @Passerby had mentioned about some months ago must be considered.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-19 13:42 | Report Abuse

Looks like everyone has his preference when it comes to Astro's CWs. I'd choose CE although I don't have it right now. It's forming a new base after the recent rise. I think it might go below 2.90 for a while. That's when the weak holders get discouraged and drop off. Only after this will Astro go on another upswing. When, I don't know.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-19 13:44 | Report Abuse

MC what do u think of bursa cz?
Boleh ka?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-19 14:04 | Report Abuse

Bursa is one of the counters that I've never ever followed in my investing/trading so far. But now that you've mentioned it, I became intrigued and immediately did a quick check of it. For all you know, this might be an opportunity for some profit. I remember Passerby mentioning BAT-CA a few weeks ago when it was at 0.05. I didn't buy, and it went to 0.10!

Bursa-CZ; ex. 6.50; 31/7/13; ratio 4.
Now at 0.04, mother 6.26.

It has been going down and volume is currently low. But you might be on to something here, Tony. The premium is definitely attractive and there's reasonable time to expiry. Of course, it will have to depend on the mother performing, and it's rather quiet. But with CWs, sometimes jumping the gun and getting in early is the way to go rather than chasing. Thanks, Tony - I'm definitely interested.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-28 11:03 | Report Abuse

Just a few weeks ago, everyone had shunned this laggard. Even 0.015 looked `too much'. It's tough to go against the grain and accepted common wisdom when the risk of losing money is very real. But often one has to gather the courage, wait and hope for the best regardless of what everyone else says. Now it's at 0.03 - a 100% increase. Not bad for a one-month trade.

Posted by beginner_1 > 2012-12-28 16:49 | Report Abuse

do u think it will moving forward?

Posted by tomdickharry > 2013-01-04 11:03 | Report Abuse

on the bull. congratulations Mat Cendana, richman & kcchongnz if you are still holding

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 11:20 | Report Abuse

This shows that if a call warrant is sold at a low premium but with very high gearing and reasonable long time to maturity, it is very exciting to punt. Sime Darby may be a quiet stock, not much volatility. But given time, there will be a time when volatility can spike. Then the highly leverage instrument will yield exaggerated return.