Posted by rkgfantasy > 2018-02-24 15:54 | Report Abuse

OCK able to announce 2:1 bonus share
it mean it potential 100%-150%return in short period

Posted by Sebastian Sted Power > 2018-02-24 22:45 | Report Abuse

better to add more before EPF pump it to 10%. Soon on later EPF will masuk 10%. Wait and SEE!!!

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-02-24 23:30 | Report Abuse

Myanmar Q3 revenue of RM13.5m is better than expected. Hope its Q4 revenue will be another surprise with higher tenancy ratio.

Posted by rkgfantasy > 2018-02-25 00:29 | Report Abuse

sos， mind to share the research pdf ?

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-02-25 10:00 | Report Abuse

@ez6699 linked it on 15 Jan 2018, but, the link no longer available.

If I remember correctly, UOB gave Myanmar's valuation at RM705million, but they used enlarged share capital of 1.135b to calculate its fair value of RM1.05. Meaning the total SOP is about RM1.192b. @rkg you can take a look at my previous blog on OCK.

Posted by Patrick13 > 2018-02-25 13:25 | Report Abuse

I agreed with you as I noted that OCK EBITDA margin is high as 18% for 9MFY17, almost double of PBT margin.
My concern is, the free cash flows look not so nice and debt to equity ratio is high. I would think that their cash flow is quite tight actually due to heavy loans & borrowings and capex proceeds.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

sosfinance
(misconception of high PE. Normally for long term project, IPP, toll roads, water concessions, towerco, the capex is high (but come with >20 years contract from major telco), its initial years PE is very high due to gradual pay down of loan and high depreciation. About half of Shareholders' Funds or RM200m from rights issue and private placement is injected into towerco biz in 2016/7. It need some time to achieve its optimum tenancy ratio.)
24/02/2018 08:45

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-02-25 13:34 | Report Abuse

@Patrick13, I have the same concern 2 years ago. Tomorrow we will see some light.

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-25 17:14 | Report Abuse

I personally think the future cash flow should be OK.
How can it be OK? The supporting point is OCK can reduce SEATH operating cost at least 20% compared to previous owner.

Hopefully it is correct...

Posted by rkgfantasy > 2018-02-25 19:26 | Report Abuse

i see the boss say 50% ? the vietnam operation cost haha

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-26 19:17 | Report Abuse

If everything is great and bright, on what possibilities current shareholders would sell shares to EPF at supposed cheap price 83cent. What value EPF, a genuine investors, could bring onboard as new partner to business without expertise, customers base, and passion to tower business.

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-26 20:10 | Report Abuse

ok, result out. EPF comes in to bail out and with cost 83 cent. org re-structuring maybe part of the deal, i suppose.

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-02-26 20:26 | Report Abuse

Have to dig further to find out what is the forex difference of RM5.5m and other income dropped of RM1.5m whether it is recurring. EBITDA within analsyts' consensus of RM99m.

Posted by Zai Zai > 2018-02-26 20:35 | Report Abuse

"In addition, the Group has secured over RM100 million of frame contracts on Full-turnkey, Upgrading and Network Fiberisation in the end of FYE2017 which will drive revenue growth for the coming year."

Such abig contract rewarded but no make announcement in bursa, how the price can move up

Posted by bpng0904 > 2018-02-26 20:35 | Report Abuse

Boss said double digit growth of PAT, by this, he means:


The Group’s PAT was affected by gains /losses on foreign exchange. For the quarter under review, the group recognized a forex loss of RM1.7 million versus a gain of RM3.8 million recognized during Q4FYE2016. Adjusting for forex gains/ losses, the core PAT for Q4FYE2017 would stand at RM9.7 million versus RM7.6 million for Q4FYE2016. This would translate to a core PAT improvement of 26.0%.

Posted by Flintstones > 2018-02-26 20:37 | Report Abuse

Expect selling pressure tomorrow

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-02-26 20:42 | Report Abuse

Thanks sosfinance for your accurate estimates

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-26 20:43 | Report Abuse

i don't think tomorrow selling pressure, rich papa is here to bail out so would be easily absorb. long term still have fate with this ock, but short term they are really in cash flow BIG problem.

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-26 21:03 | Report Abuse

FY2017 result is over then EPF came into picture.
EPF is targeting FY2018 result and they can foresee the result would be impressive.
If not, how EPF can make money to pay 6.9% div in 2017 then est 6.5% for FY18.

Cash flow is not a concern as if there is a problem, instead of EPF bought from open market, OCK will give placement to EPF ( this is what happened to edotco as they need more cash to run the business)

Net Ops CF = +18mil. The biggest impact on Net CF is the acquisition of subsi (-213mil).

So for CQ1'18, this -213mil (as well as huge current year borrowing at CF statement) will be disappear and will show very strong CF and this is what EPF is looking at.


If your strategy is 2-3yrs, then not much to be worry.
If your strategy is buy today then sell tomorrow, then this is not your company.

Njoy.

Posted by CFTrader > 2018-02-26 23:20 | Report Abuse

@VFTrader, the interest cost start to balloon at a price of 22m / annum already. (comparatively to 10m last year)

And I have concern as their recievable / payable are ballooning in such way that they can't produce a good Cashflow currently....

Continous placement to EPF is not quite a "long term" solution to solve the cashflow problem....

Posted by bpng0904 > 2018-02-26 23:40 | Report Abuse

Comparing 2016 and 2015, the net increase in receivable & payable is 110m & 128m respectively. While comparing 2017 and 2016, the net increase in receivable & payable is 29.7m & -5m respectively. It is either they have improved their collection method or the payment term from towerco is much better.

Posted by bpng0904 > 2018-02-26 23:48 | Report Abuse

The huge jump in interest cost is due to major acquisition in 2016, ST term increased from 81.8m to 277m while LT debt increased from 65m to 178.5m. ST debt of 277m should be coming due within a year, if they can pay off this, this is a boost to the earnings by reducing the interest fee.

When asking on the company's strategy on tackling its debt:
"Everything is still intact at this point in time, there are no changes in terms of business. The Group is still very much bullish to build a towerco as well as building other streams of recurring income, its just that now is the delivery stage. Capex and loan is certain as its still in the growth phase, however the Group will only take on assets that are self sustainable moving forward."

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-27 08:42 | Report Abuse

EPF investment strategy. There hv 3 types of companies in the mkt name: Big-cap, Mid-cap & Small-cap.

EPF always become substantial SH for good big-cap companies like Axiata, TopGlove (TG)...

For Mid-cap especially those below RM1b mkt cap, it is abnormal for EPF to become substantial SH as normally they only hold 1-2% stake.

This is what it puzzle me why they interested in this mid-cap co or they foresee that OCK mkt cap will hit >RM1b in FY18??


Further more, before 2008 mkt crash, EPF stake in TG (Mkt cap reach 2b in 2007) only less than 2%. But their thinking changed after the crash as they foresee that TG is the company that can growth in the future.

Posted by rkgfantasy > 2018-02-27 08:52 | Report Abuse

depending what report bank giving out ba
if they suddenly drop the target price below RM1, than sure will facing selling presure
but anyway, i learn something that USD Drop is worst for OCK

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-02-27 08:55 | Report Abuse

As announced in a separate statement, PAT* (excluding forex gain or loss),

PAT* improved to RM32.7m vs RM26.1m
EBITDA also improved to RM99m vs RM63m
EV/EBITDA also improved to 10.7x vs 11.7x

From a business perspective, OCK has gain its footage in Myanmar as a strong player with Telenor as the principal tenant and co-tenants with MPT, MyTel and Ooredoo.

Posted by warchest > 2018-02-27 09:14 | Report Abuse

Hahaha those holland analysis

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-27 09:53 | Report Abuse

Huge q buy support at 0.80. Suspect is from very big fund.

Posted by limhh > 2018-02-27 10:22 | Report Abuse

Kenanga plan to downgrade to reflect the under expectation result.

Despite delivering record revenue in FY17, its PATAMI came in below expectations due to higher-than-expected cost components. While we continue to like OCK for its attractive growth prospects and growing recurring revenue stream, we are likely to revise our numbers lower, pending an analysts’ briefing today. Our OUTPERFORM stock call and target price of RM1.05 are currently under review.

Posted by Necrophos > 2018-02-27 11:37 | Report Abuse

Warchest zzz

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-27 11:41 | Report Abuse

won't add more lo...next quarter traditional low key quarter. with current situation, the NP might go back lower than 2013 historic low

Posted by warchest > 2018-02-27 14:50 | Report Abuse

Yes higher expected costs built in this company. and the balance sheet already started deteriorating

Posted by ahizra2 > 2018-02-27 18:10 | Report Abuse

Suddenly many turned negative on this counter. Time to buy i guess

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-27 20:43 | Report Abuse

if turn negative, pls sell before px go down to 2016 PP pricing.
look for other opportunity.

Posted by bpng0904 > 2018-02-28 09:02 | Report Abuse

Boss supported the share price in late 2016 and early 2017 from 0.8 to 0.76. He bought again at 0.8 in Feb 2018. It seems like boss is lucky to buy at the same price for two consecutive years. Can he buy at a cheaper price this year? I don't know. Looking back at ock share price for the last few years, a NP of 24mil should be able to fetch a share price of 0.8x. Any thoughts, guys?

Posted by Sebastian Sted Power > 2018-02-28 09:48 | Report Abuse

@VFTRADER, you have pointed something very important!!!! Even many people said EPF is not smart enough (but they are not bodoh either). Sure EPF want to do something on OCK. Who know maybe EPF will make some "interesting movement" on Edotco with OCK?? EPF holds more than 15% in Axiata, sure got something!!


EPF investment strategy. There hv 3 types of companies in the mkt name: Big-cap, Mid-cap & Small-cap.

EPF always become substantial SH for good big-cap companies like Axiata, TopGlove (TG)...

For Mid-cap especially those below RM1b mkt cap, it is abnormal for EPF to become substantial SH as normally they only hold 1-2% stake.

This is what it puzzle me why they interested in this mid-cap co or they foresee that OCK mkt cap will hit >RM1b in FY18??

Posted by warchest > 2018-02-28 10:04 | Report Abuse

EPF not stupid but need also consider that they will be always an exit clause whereby EPF can sell back to owner if it didn't met the expected return. All about the deliverables

Posted by warchest > 2018-02-28 10:04 | Report Abuse

this the info that the retailers do not have an access

Posted by chunwei94 > 2018-02-28 10:06 | Report Abuse

can try its competitor, binacom.

Posted by bgt9963 > 2018-02-28 10:06 | Report Abuse

dumb dumb buy....!

Posted by VFTRADER > 2018-02-28 10:14 | Report Abuse

Sometimes EPF not making so call smart move bcoz it is their commitment to the country like their investment in Felda ( They have no choice).

But who is OCK to them, if EPF have other chances, why they need to come here n they don't hv any commitment to be here as well??

Further more, the share px keep dropping from 90sen in CQ4'17 till now and they are averaging down the px, that means they are lossing money for the additional 2-3% stake they took during 6 to 9 months time......

One more interest movement from OCK is their boss immediately declare intention to trade during closing period n purchase 5k lots of share in the next day...

haha. only time can tell...

Posted by ttt > 2018-02-28 16:48 | Report Abuse

I suspect the AES project will be big

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-28 17:25 | Report Abuse

this ock does not have abundant cash to support more projects. borrow from financing and private placement all incur capital cost. with the interest everywhere on the rise, the hard work revenue will be wiped off by bankers and private placement owner. NP to SH, i think won't be nice for years to come.

Posted by bpng0904 > 2018-02-28 19:08 | Report Abuse

chooheng, why kenanga and malacca securities are still giving 0.95 tp? Can you please pin point their analysis report as to where they maybe wrong? Compared to your own analysis? Thank you very much.

Posted by chooheng > 2018-02-28 19:27 | Report Abuse

bpng0904, I guess they revise their forecast from time to time with new DATA comes. Good example is none of their analysis forecast ock could below expectation in Q4 announced just days ago. As I said I still have fate in ock, I still hold on to their son no sell just no add. I just don't believe in analyst 100% that's all.

Posted by billyrave > 2018-03-01 14:46 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/43986.jsp

Posted by chikying > 2018-03-01 14:47 | Report Abuse

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/southeast-asia-digital-growth-potential/

Posted by ttt > 2018-03-01 16:08 | Report Abuse

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/infrastructure-boom-5-ways-investors-can-play-it/

2. Global Communications
Comms will be buoyed by the rapid growth of 5G, as well as the IoT and its impact on ecommerce.

Wireless data use: 96 exabytes per month (EB/mo) to 278 EB/mo between 2016 and 2021
The U.S. will capture the largest share of the 5G value chain

5. Enablers
Big data, 5G and IoT, and increased automation are enabling bigger trends, such as EVs and smart homes.

By 2040, it’s estimated that 54% of all new car sales will be electric
Meanwhile, the internet of things is exploding to 75.4 billion things by 2025

Posted by vegebird2020 > 2018-03-01 19:07 | Report Abuse

Maybe ock will right isssue for cash to settle debts

Posted by vegebird2020 > 2018-03-02 21:18 | Report Abuse

Need to settle debt issue to reduce finance cost first

Posted by sosfinance > 2018-03-03 15:40 | Report Abuse

Not sure if is it is true, I was informed that they are restructuring their USD30m short term debt they obtained for SEATH to long term debt. (I suppose they only informed analysts)

Anyway, their coming operating cash flow is around RM120m, together with cash of RM118m, I suppose is sufficient for expansion and acquisitions.

Based on analyst report, Myanmar revenue last quarter is RM15.7m as compared against it preceding quarter of RM13.5m. (Growth of 16.2%). This will reach the blue-sky scenario UOB KayHian talk about in mid 2016 (although) it is about one year late (better late than never). I suppose they can do better than that, as they are still building about 102 towers for Telenor & more for other major telco operators and also improving its tenancy ratio. That will go beyond "blue-sky" scenario, will it?

Posted by Zai Zai > 2018-03-04 01:15 | Report Abuse

New fund (local/foreign)holder of OCK :

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 0.50% 4,401,000
Manulife Investment-HW Shariah Flexi 0.29% 2,565,700
DFA Emerging Markets Core Equity 0.25% 2,161,400
DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap 0.22% 1,962,300
S.E.A. Asian Equity Discovery Fund 0.11 1,000,000
Dimensional Emerging Mkts Core Eq Acc 0.02% 205,400
DFA World ex US Core Equity Instl 0.02% 171,300
DFA TA World ex US Core Equity 0.01% 106,000
JHancock Emerging Markets NAV 0.01% 98,000