makemoney1, ya. they all discussed abt this since q4-2017. basically china gov is supporting mobile business from upstream till downtream. so any disadvantages faced by china tower might be compensate by china gov in terms of special tax rate or rebate. so juz wait n c.
It's announced today that EPF bought 650,000 OCK shares and its shareholding is 5.0001% as of yesterday. EPF may have taken a year to accumulate this much shares. Hope they are here for a long haul.
Q3 - Myanmar towerco biz produced revenue of RM13.5m, better than expected, not many aware of this, as reported by UOB KayHian analyst. Imagine, only 650 towers (if we annualise Q3) is equal to RM54m, the full 920 towers will be RM76m, what UOB KayHian called it 'blue sky scenerio" - TP1.30
2016AR, EPF hold 17.666mil share (2.027%). Today, it holds 43.586mil share (5%). An increase of 25.92mil share. if ave price is 0.88 , total new buy = RM22.8mil. I think they start buying since Aug'17.
Since EPF is not shareholder for edotco, so I think they put their hope on OCK and also act as another way to diversify their investment into tower business.
What's stopping a competitor from undercutting OCK and building towers and leasing them cheaper? Is OCK the cost leader? or quality leader, in which case, stability is more important than price.
What moat do they have? How is the margin compression, or is it due to initial depreciation cost?
it is a SOP for this type of big fund to have private meeting with targeted companies' board of directors to have better understanding of the company future before start investing or further increase their stake.
maybe EPF also know this ock always wake up once in a quarter end, so want to earn some quick money buy small small wait for Feb end result then dumb...dumb.
with powerful business strategy presented by OCK boss to EPF team, end up EPF prefered directly own more OCK share instead of edotco shown that OCK business plan is at least on par with edotco although OCK is much smaller than edotco.
in my personally opinion, those who sold OCK share in the past 9 mths due to lackluster share px, can rethink to buy back for future growth.
again, there is no answer for any investment we make until we divest it.
Khazanah + KWAP also hold directly on edotco but not EPF. There must be a reason why EPF keen on OCK instead of edotco. I think 1 thing get EPF attention on OCK is good in cost control & keep bringing down especially field operating cost although they have high amt of loan.
Note: EPF also become sustaintial shareholders for ECOWLD this week and ecowld share px pattern same as OCK, price keep dropping when EPF top up their stake....
Yesterday volumes, I believe comes from EPF. and today from their founder. Believe that they would be reporting good number next week, underpinned by forex gain (as I said before they stand to gain about RM18 million from forex gain on loan) and also contributions from their recurring income of tower business. Usually their 4th Quarter would be the best.
Their market cap is only about RM300 million away from magic number of RM1 billion. EPF does not simply take substantial stake in small cap companies unless they see potential or any corporate exercise coming.
I have read somewhere that YTL has the highest no of tower around 5000 nos, Celcom, Digi, and Maxis have close to 4000 each and the balance from TM and U Mobile. Apart from Celcom, other telcos may divest their telco tower to OCK in return of some stake. OCK stand to gain due to their neutrality, unlike edotco which is owned by Axiata.
From a business perspective, in Myanmar (now about 700), they are doing quite well (may be a cost leader) with gradual improving tenancy ratio from other major telcos like MPT, Mytel (in discussion with Ooredoo). Towerco, with 27 years contract, is a sustainable small size "monopoly" with good cash flow (EBITDA Margin 50-65%) when tenancy ratio grow.
Similarly, they also purchase about 2,000 towers in Vietnam and gradually improving its cost and also its tenancy ratio besides expanding more towers.
(misconception of high PE. Normally for long term project, IPP, toll roads, water concessions, towerco, the capex is high (but come with >20 years contract from major telco), its initial years PE is very high due to gradual pay down of loan and high depreciation. About half of Shareholders' Funds or RM200m from rights issue and private placement is injected into towerco biz in 2016/7. It need some time to achieve its optimum tenancy ratio.)
[a] khazanah = pumped in US$200mil for 10.7% stake [b] KWAP = invested US$100mil for 5.4% stake.
for EPF, so far only invested 43.6mil share in OCK (assume @0.90/share, only RM40mil or US$10mil @ forex RM4.00) only kacang putih amt compare to the above 2.
If they just up the stake to 15%, what will be the price by that time?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
rkgfantasy
1,187 posts
Posted by rkgfantasy > 2018-02-11 22:11 | Report Abuse
malaysia got 22,000 tower at 2015, 3500 own by edotco
OCK only own 2xx, wonder who own the rest, and what can banefit OCK