Can shares in condom giant Karex (5247.MY) bounce back?
The Kuala Lumpur-based company is the world’s biggest maker of latex prophylactics and is reaping the incentives of close proximity to Malaysia’s rubber plantations. Karex manufactures condoms for clients adore Reckitt Benckiser ( RB.UK ), whose Durex brand is the world’s second-biggest. Between last summer and the begin of this year Karex shares rallied 50%, however have actually been weaker in 2016. At concerning MYR3.90, now could be an excellent time to accumulate shares.
In 2015 Karex’s stock enjoyed tailwinds from favorable movements in the value of the Malaysian ringgit and weaker commodity prices. The company bills its clients in U.S. dollars, meaning the more powerful greenback has actually helped fatten its bottom line, as its outcomes are reported in Malaysian ringgit. Considerably the company’s costs – mainly locally-sourced rubber – are in the beaten down Malaysian currency.
Karex shares have actually recently been strike by a rebound in the rate of latex. The raw material, Considerably of which is sourced from Malaysian plantations, fell 60% between 2011 and last year, hitting a reduced of sub-400 Malaysian sen a kilogram. Southeast Asian governments have actually taken actions in 2016 to prop up sagging rubber prices. Firstly, Malaysia says it will certainly ‘rubberize’ concerning 600 miles of its roads to stoke demand. Secondly, Kuala Lumpur, along along with Indonesia and Thailand, will certainly collectively cut rubber exports for 6 months to nudge up prices.
Nomura analyst Marcin Spiewak, a Karex bull, thinks the market is over-concerned concerning a rise in rubber prices this year, which is placing stress on the stock’s rate short-term. He thinks the company Can easily pass on any sort of slight improve in raw material prices to its customers. Spiewak additionally expects the rubber market to be oversupplied for two years. He’s got a target rate on the stock of MYR5 a share – concerning 30% greater compared to its current share price.
Spiewak likes Karex’s strategy. The company is now expanding in to niche portions of the condom game, too as cultivating itself as a brand. He points to the recent acquisition of TheyFit for $1.3 million. TheyFit sells custom-sized condoms online, and importantly, has actually US Federal Drug Administration and European Union approval. The Nomura analyst reckons the deal will certainly insight Karex sell its own brands in to the these markets. Selling its own condoms could lift operating margins lasting and enhance profits, Spiewak reckons.
The global condom market looks adore it’s in rude healthiness too. After all, it could be argued birth-manage is virtually recession-proof. Still, it’s expected that condom revenues and volumes will certainly grow by an standard 10% per year through to 2020. The biggest threats this market faces are probably an HIV vaccination or the discovery of a new, a lot more convenient way of birth-control. Neither look adore they’re on the cards any sort of time soon. There are brand-new threats to people’s sexual healthiness though: The Centers for Illness manage and Prevention in February reminded travelers to usage condoms amid an outbreak of the mosquito-borne Zika virus. Broker Hong Leong says Zika could lead to a lot more necessity for condoms as couples in portions of Latin America the Caribbean stay clear of pregnancy. Clinical trials for a vaccine aren’t expected to begin for 18 months.
The outlook for Karex’s earnings additionally looks appealing. Brokers believe earnings per share could rise 50% in fiscal 2016 to MYR0.13 and sales could improve by a third to concerning MYR400 million. The company ought to additionally improve its free money flow over the next two years. This means Karex has actually a lot more cash left in the piggy bank after paying suppliers and capital outlay, etc.
On that note, the company announced a bonus share issuance that will certainly see existing shareholders handed one extra share for each two they hold. Companies normally do this once they’re in a healthy and balanced financial placement and hope to enhance their stock’s liquidity. While share bonus issuances improve the variety of shares traded on the open market, they don’t dilute current stock holders. They Can easily however, affect earnings per share and share price. Karex says it will certainly announce the entitlement date for the share bonus later this year subject to approval. Chue Kwok Yan, an analyst at Affin Hwang Capital, reckons the announcement could provide a “positive boost” to the stock’s rate in the near term.
Meanwhile, recent earnings look strong as well. In its second quarter Karex increased gross profit margins to a lot more compared to 37% on cheaper material costs. Sales flower 25% compared to a year ago, in line along with estimates.
Currency uncertainty could be counted versus the stock. Malaysia’s currency was one of the worst performing in the region last year, however has actually revealed some resilience of late on a slight bounce in oil prices. Still, scandals at state fund 1MDB have actually kept investors sour on Malaysia’s currency and stock market. The direction of the U.S. dollar is one more question mark, provided the fading chance of further Fed hikes this year.
However, the stock isn’t cheap. Karex’s shares trade at 25 times forward earnings. Australian condom play Ansell ( ANN.AU Your Value Your Change Short position ) looks cheaper, however its earnings have actually been pressured by falling necessity for industrial lubricants and rubber gloves to struggling customers in petrochemicals and automotives. once it concerns condoms then, Karex still looks best-of-breed.
Seems like most ppl r selling Karex of late based mostly on strengthening of the MYR. In my opinion, tis is really overdone despite d good news of a 1 for 2 bonus issue. These ppl who r selling r not reading the qtrly accounts close enuf. Karex management is wise enuf to anticipate such currency fluctuations by hedging its USD revenue against the expected MYR appreciation to mitigate such risk. Its profitability shud be intact given its expansion plans r already in placed. If you r truly a medium to long-term investor, u ought not to be disturbed by all these noises. Unless u r a mkt speculator, then I hv no words of advise for u.
@ksyewks, come to think abt it, somehow some ppl ought to b sacrificed to suffer losses to allow others to profit. This is a cruel fact abt d marketplace which is beyond d control of u and me. Hence, may d best prices b with all every time.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Kok Leong Chan
648 posts
Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2016-02-29 19:00 | Report Abuse
Haha...I just predict from last bonus issue only...I still haven't re-enter yet. ..LOL