haha pang72, you are even more bullish than I am. My 1st target is 2.50, hopefully to be reached in next 2 weeks, judging by the way it is going up and the aggressive share buyback
I do see similarity in share price trend of SEM as what BJFood has demonstrated in past few months. BJFood share price first jumped up from about RM2.00 level when it announced surprisingly good quarterly earnings, then all the way to RM4.80 within a few months, added with company share buyback along the way offsetting director's selling.
SEM share price broke up RM1.56 when the news of the company getting an offer for Caring Pharmacy came out in the market. The company also started aggressive share buyback knowing that the company share is grossly undervalued below RM2.00. Then we saw the news of a director wanting to deal with company shares.
It does look like your target of RM3.00 is not a distant possibility.
Based on CIMB's report today on SEM, the company is expected to register improved net profits of RM105-108 million every year for FY2023-2024 after disposing off Caring at RM1.3 billion (net proceeds of RM975 million).
I think CIMB has over-stated the interest savings, so I expect SEM net profit should come in at RM90 million level after disposal of Caring, giving EPS of 7.5 sen.
Pegging it at a PER of 30x (slightly lower than its 5-year mean PER of 31.1x), SEM will be worth RM0.075 x 30 = RM2.25 per share for its convenient store business.
Plus the RM975 million proceeds from disposal of Caring, SEM should be worth RM2.25 + RM0.79 = RM3.04 per share.
Surprise will come if SEM receives an offer higher than the RM1.3 billion price tag offered by the American private equity fund. If it indeed gets an offer within the requested range of RM1.5-1.8 billion, it will add 12 sen to 30 sen upside to SEM
I thought I would need to wait till 4.50pm for SEM to touch 2.30, but it looks like it is a combination of retailers / insiders chasing and company share buyback in the morning to push it high.
7-11 can have high growth in many years to come, both from expansion of new outlets and converting existing convenient store format into 7-Cafe format which enjoys almost double transaction of RM12.00 per head.
Just imagine if SEM converts most of its 2,400 convenient stores into 7-Cafe format, revenue will just double, with even higher profit margin of 3.9% as seen in Q2FY2022 compared to 1.8% in H1FY2021
SEM plans to have a total of 130 7-Cafe by end of 2022, soon this will come to Perak and other states. Next year I hope to see at least 500 7-Cafe outlets which will help to grow revenue by double digits
With or without the Caring deal now, it does not matter too much, as SEM can continue growing Caring into a bigger animal.
The Edge reported last weekend that Caring was close to sealing a deal to buy over a pharmacy chain in Sarawak with some 15 outlets there, that would increase Caring outlets by over 7% straightaway (and hence valuation) and give it an instant foothold in Sarawak.
SEM could even consider spinning off Caring to a separate listing later if it cannot not get the required valuation of RM1.5-1.8 billion now. By continued improvements and expansion, Caring could expand to over 300 outlets in next few years and valuation will definitely jump to over RM2.5 billion then.
I was right yesterday that SEM share price would need to take a breather, but did not expect such a big correction. Support at 2.00. I suspect it needs to consolidate the gains for a while before it resumes uptrend, all depending on whether a deal is coming or not
As said before, even there is no deal on Caring now, SEM is still grossly undervalued at RM2.00 level, given that the value of Caring has emerged with proposals from Japanese groups back in July and interests from US private equity funds, and its core convenient store business is charging ahead
The management may think that the RM1.3 billion offer for Caring was a little too low, and SEM could get better valuation even if it lists up Caring as a separate listing, by expanding its network into Sarawak and increasing total pharmacy outlets towards 250 or more.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
dragon328
2,633 posts
Posted by dragon328 > 2022-10-21 10:39 | Report Abuse
aiya so strong, broke up 2.00
when will it pause?