?? clearly haters only choose to read the part they want to see. i mentioned after gap up will have sell down, now it happen exactly as i predicted kikiki. but dumb holders will not sell even if they have chance, because they prefer to cut loss later hehehe
Say I bias against Kak Z… Widodo on Friday announced total ban, palm bosses make noise but they still can tahan, coz own country comes first…. Dumb Kak Z on Sunday say wanna pump up production n save the world! Talk to EU, talk to US… Indonesia see this as threat… so the rest are history… both if countries join forces, they can rule the market… y compete?
FCPO future is in excess of RM6.0K/ton is extremely good for oil palm industry and the huge sway of oil palm company share prices may perhaps due to people's buying and selling of them without trying to understand they may make some money but lose the whole cow definitely.
JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters. Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban. There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein. According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments. ------------------------------------------------------------------ The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Better to stay calm for more details to emerge.
Provided MALAYSIA don’t compete to win Indonesia market share, Indonesia won’t flip flop again… If both counties can work together, they can control the world market for edible oils… not everyday Malaysia can be taikor in world stage…
RM2.00 will be an easy target within this year as there will be multiple re-rating factors coming in next few months: (1) March qtrly result will show strong earnings on average CPO price of RM6,000/t (2) March qtrly result will include the disposal gain from Kulai land and a potential special dividend (3) May futures CPO broke up RM7,000/t and Jun futures touched RM6,800/t. CPO prices will remain high for next few months meaning that the average CPO to be realised by Bplant for the Jun quarter will be higher than RM6,000/t and hence higher earnings (4) Bplant's parent is heavily indebted and needs cash asap. I predict that Bplant should be working on another land disposal deal and should announce it in next few months (5) A potential take-over offer for BPlant may be on its way from potential suitors like KLK or Sime Plantation
My 2 cents..... Taking it Private is the MOST likely scenario. If BIG corp like IOI, Sime , KLK, etc decides to get involved ...it is likely to benefit " Small holders" who now can dictate the 10% balance of the TakeOver either by Big Corp or Private . Either way ..... "Small holders" will benefit. So .... Why is LTAT disposing ? That is probably link to who is going to take it "Private" .
John...... Indonesia has BANNED esports of Processed PO. That is Cooking OIl. China imports MUCH vai HK ... Cooking OIl which is either Packed in Hk or China. The BAN means that China has to "ReProcess" the CPO into Cooking Oil. Same is for Pakistan and India.. What is the impact of CPO as NOW these countries has to INCREASE their CPO import to make necessary Cooking Oil. Possible to set up additional Processing lines or Push existing line to have more output of Cooking Oil. ??? Either way .... Malaysia companies like Sime , IOI and KLK which does bottled Cooking oil/ mass containers to export to China/India/Pakistan.
Another is...Indonesia will try to "Limit" cooking oil exports. So ... there will still be a "Demand" shifted from Exports to Domestic market in Indonesia. As such Malaysia will benefit as the Indonesia Demand for cooking oil will remove some CPO or Cooking Oil that would have gone towards Indonesia EXPORTS. Likely the impact would come in 2 to 3 months from now ..once the Export bans by Indonesia starts in 28 April 2022. Question is ...HOW MUCH SHORTFALL caused by Indonesia Ban. ??? Note ...Supply is NOT "ELASTIC" as there is a MAX that Indonesia or Malaysia can produce. However ..... Demand can drop if Cooking Oil becomes too expensive.
Anyway .... Bplant "Price" is more likely to be determine by their "intrinsic" value of the LAND they now have. Not the current CPO prices . CPO prices can "determine" the likely EPS and the dividend they can declare. But "Take Over" or "Privatization" ( Which would account for the "intrinsic Value" of the land ) would be THE FACTOR which would determine the "Price" of Bplant.
Ouch,,,Ouchh...Ouch .....My Brains Cells Hurts !!! .... Toooooooooo Much Over thinking about Bplant Issues !!! LoL ........ ( Indonesia USES lots of CPO for their Fuel Oil/Bio Diesel/Aviation Fuel/Etc . And was cited as a cause of the Cooking oil shortage in Indonesia )
Meanwhile for now, Russia is shutting gas to Poland and Bulgaria… sending gas, crude oil, soya oil price up by 3%… as usual, cpo being commodities will follow… my 2 cents…
DJ and Nasdaq collapse , but FCPO overnight UP. FCPO May $7,100, Jun $6,848, Jul $6,477 despite we are in high production season now. CPO will stay high at least until 2023 attributed to the following development : 1. No export of sunflower oil, wheat, barley etc from Ukraine as the war raging on and the Apr/May 2022 planting season will be missed. 2. Next planting season is Apr/may 2023 for harvest in July/Aug 2023. Uncertainty around. 3. Russia is bombing the railway connecting to Europe as it is used to deliver western weapon. No inland logistic capability to enable export . 4. Russia will permanently occupy southern ukraine and black sea . Ukraine has no access to shipping route. 5. Limited capability to boost production elsewhere due to shortage of fertilizers, wild weather swing etc.
Hold on to your Bplant to reap the full gain to come.
yesterday morning went up to 5.43... then goes to 5.22 by the end of the day... today morning starts at 5.12 after deduct dividend. (tapi early morning dropped until 5.09)
Bplant has very strong fundamentals such as huge oil palm land size, good harvests, good management, sell on spot rate, good dividend policy, and so on.
Taking it private, take-over, etc shall factor in all these positive points.
Hold tight for good dividends as long as FCPO is RM6K/ton or even RM5K/ton for as long as possible.
Whatever comes is immense bonus to all faithful shareholders.
The share price for those that have presence in Indonesia will get stuck a bit, those tht pure Malaysian shld be flying… but again, market is not perfect, there are gaps
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RJ87
5,146 posts
Posted by RJ87 > 2022-04-25 17:11 | Report Abuse
You might as well predict sun rise from the east and sets at the west tomorrow...
Kakakkkakakakakakaka
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plantationgameover
?? clearly haters only choose to read the part they want to see. i mentioned after gap up will have sell down, now it happen exactly as i predicted kikiki. but dumb holders will not sell even if they have chance, because they prefer to cut loss later hehehe
1 hour ago