John...... Indonesia has BANNED esports of Processed PO. That is Cooking OIl. China imports MUCH vai HK ... Cooking OIl which is either Packed in Hk or China. The BAN means that China has to "ReProcess" the CPO into Cooking Oil. Same is for Pakistan and India.. What is the impact of CPO as NOW these countries has to INCREASE their CPO import to make necessary Cooking Oil. Possible to set up additional Processing lines or Push existing line to have more output of Cooking Oil. ??? Either way .... Malaysia companies like Sime , IOI and KLK which does bottled Cooking oil/ mass containers to export to China/India/Pakistan.
Another is...Indonesia will try to "Limit" cooking oil exports. So ... there will still be a "Demand" shifted from Exports to Domestic market in Indonesia. As such Malaysia will benefit as the Indonesia Demand for cooking oil will remove some CPO or Cooking Oil that would have gone towards Indonesia EXPORTS. Likely the impact would come in 2 to 3 months from now ..once the Export bans by Indonesia starts in 28 April 2022. Question is ...HOW MUCH SHORTFALL caused by Indonesia Ban. ??? Note ...Supply is NOT "ELASTIC" as there is a MAX that Indonesia or Malaysia can produce. However ..... Demand can drop if Cooking Oil becomes too expensive.
Anyway .... Bplant "Price" is more likely to be determine by their "intrinsic" value of the LAND they now have. Not the current CPO prices . CPO prices can "determine" the likely EPS and the dividend they can declare. But "Take Over" or "Privatization" ( Which would account for the "intrinsic Value" of the land ) would be THE FACTOR which would determine the "Price" of Bplant.
Ouch,,,Ouchh...Ouch .....My Brains Cells Hurts !!! .... Toooooooooo Much Over thinking about Bplant Issues !!! LoL ........ ( Indonesia USES lots of CPO for their Fuel Oil/Bio Diesel/Aviation Fuel/Etc . And was cited as a cause of the Cooking oil shortage in Indonesia )
Meanwhile for now, Russia is shutting gas to Poland and Bulgaria… sending gas, crude oil, soya oil price up by 3%… as usual, cpo being commodities will follow… my 2 cents…
DJ and Nasdaq collapse , but FCPO overnight UP. FCPO May $7,100, Jun $6,848, Jul $6,477 despite we are in high production season now. CPO will stay high at least until 2023 attributed to the following development : 1. No export of sunflower oil, wheat, barley etc from Ukraine as the war raging on and the Apr/May 2022 planting season will be missed. 2. Next planting season is Apr/may 2023 for harvest in July/Aug 2023. Uncertainty around. 3. Russia is bombing the railway connecting to Europe as it is used to deliver western weapon. No inland logistic capability to enable export . 4. Russia will permanently occupy southern ukraine and black sea . Ukraine has no access to shipping route. 5. Limited capability to boost production elsewhere due to shortage of fertilizers, wild weather swing etc.
Hold on to your Bplant to reap the full gain to come.
yesterday morning went up to 5.43... then goes to 5.22 by the end of the day... today morning starts at 5.12 after deduct dividend. (tapi early morning dropped until 5.09)
Bplant has very strong fundamentals such as huge oil palm land size, good harvests, good management, sell on spot rate, good dividend policy, and so on.
Taking it private, take-over, etc shall factor in all these positive points.
Hold tight for good dividends as long as FCPO is RM6K/ton or even RM5K/ton for as long as possible.
Whatever comes is immense bonus to all faithful shareholders.
The share price for those that have presence in Indonesia will get stuck a bit, those tht pure Malaysian shld be flying… but again, market is not perfect, there are gaps
LEMBAGA TABUNG ANGKATAN TENTERA (a substantial shareholder) disposed 2,895,000 shares on 25-Apr-2022.
Question : Why cant they dispose at higher price? Why cannot see Bplant price up more than 1.20? Why everytime reaches 1.20....must throw until 1.1+? Why Why Why? So desperate meh? LOL ..... Dispose at higher price = good for everybody ma? No? Math failed ka? haha
As I said before, there are certain groups of investors who are bearish on CPO price outlook and they are not up to date as to what is happening in the edible oil market nowadays. Just look at how many local analysts who are bearish on CPO price, most projecting an average CPO price of just RM4,000-4,200/t for 2022, ridiculous. LTAT has been ill-advised by these people without realising that Bplant is so so much under-valued.
Analysts have repeatedly wrong in their prediction on CPO price since last year but unfortunately investors, as usual choose to refer to analysts before they invest. Just see what happen to tech stocks today.
Sifu, pls see the date disposal, it happens this Monday whn the price as high as 1.25, most likely they disposed at 1.21-1.22 that day. Taking profit a few millions out of 1.5 billion shares is immaterial for LTAT
Jun, regardless of Indonesia restriction, there are indeed shortage in edible oil, that is real. On Indonesia export ban, pls read what’s the proportion of RBD olein export vs total palm oil export n let me know if it is still fake news?
hahaha!! sifu brianklc, please include the "ImLearningFrom" in front of the "sifu" coz that will be more accurate. hahaha..later ada misunderstanding that im sifu... susah .. hahahaa yes yes agree with u... tapi if they dont sell... then maybe price goes higher? just guessing ya... because if they always do like that... who dare buy more to push price higher oh...
Sifu, pls see the date disposal, it happens this Monday whn the price as high as 1.25, most likely they disposed at 1.21-1.22 that day. Taking profit a few millions out of 1.5 billion shares is immaterial for LTAT
Most of the local plantation writers & analysis covering the sector are key board writers repeating past statistical models. You can see all this people{s} attending palm oil conference on the side lines asking planter's tips and waiting for experienced overseas speakers giving their views on our palm oil outlook. Thomas Mielke, James Fry, Dorab Mistry are some of the more prominent overseas based speaker's which our analysts looked in awe for their views. USDA agricultural report is a respectable & comprehensive report and analysis on current weather, planting trends, expected yields and demand & consumption. Overseas based analyst on soft commodities have already revised upwards their price projection of CPO to between 6,000 {FH 22} and 5,000 {LH 22}. Citing SBO premium of USD 200 per tonne over palm oil { meaning CPO is cheapest available alternative} Yet our local analyst is still netrual on the palm oil sector. I guess they have missed out the palm oil rally and continue sit it out again. PIVB is overweight and their price forecast is at $4.300. Cimb is netrual on the sector and their price forecast is at 4,100. Look at how the 2 differ in their recommendations. First one overweight at $4,300.Second one neutral at 4,100. First 4 mths { Jan - Apr} average recorded CPO Jan 5,354 per tonne Feb 5,930 per tonne Mar 6,867per tonne Apr 6,900 per tonne
During Monday, I sort of caught them doing the disposal… tht time lots of ppl buying, so they dispose at buyers price instead of queuing the sales and scared ppl off… agree with u best they don’t sell… but they also need to take profit…
brianklc... yaya... i saw ur comment that day... and i didnt get to sell coz i came in late. lol... no choice la... now wait all rich ppl come back from raya before the coming wave... hehe... now continue collect collect.... cheers bro...
@ImLearningFromSifu today sure red because last night US stock markets fall very deep. Investors worry about the big tech's earning reports especially FB will release their earning reports tomorrow morning. AAPL will release earning reports on Friday morning. Second thing to worry of course is still the Fed rate hikes matter. The third thing to worry is Russia ban two Europe countries to export their crude oil.
Yday there was an article from theedge I think saying that with the storage that Indonesia has, total export ban can only sustain for 1 month max, BUT since it’s only for RBD olein, it takes months to fill up all the storage…
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MuttsInvestor
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Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2022-04-27 01:57 | Report Abuse
John...... Indonesia has BANNED esports of Processed PO. That is Cooking OIl. China imports MUCH vai HK ... Cooking OIl which is either Packed in Hk or China. The BAN means that China has to "ReProcess" the CPO into Cooking Oil. Same is for Pakistan and India.. What is the impact of CPO as NOW these countries has to INCREASE their CPO import to make necessary Cooking Oil. Possible to set up additional Processing lines or Push existing line to have more output of Cooking Oil. ??? Either way .... Malaysia companies like Sime , IOI and KLK which does bottled Cooking oil/ mass containers to export to China/India/Pakistan.