Plantation - Key Takeaways From Globoil's Webinar Date: 9th October 2020
Solvent Extractors Association of India organised a webinar yesterday titled “World Price Outlook for Vegetable Oils and Meals”. There were three speakers i.e. Thomas Mielke from Oil World, Dorab Mistry from Godrej International and James Fry from LMC International. Here are the key takeaways from the webinar: -
James Fry said that rains and good palm prices would encourage better estate maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to improved palm production in year 2021F. Rains would boost CPO supply in early-2021F and in the meantime, there would be a seasonal pick-up in production in 4Q2020. Peak palm production may be delayed by a month or two from the usual month of October or November in Malaysia.
In terms of demand, many companies in the HORECA sector (hotels, restaurants and catering) may not survive without government support. Families in low income countries may be trading down to smaller bottles of cooking oil. James Fry did not give a price forecast.
Thomas Mielke said that CPO prices may hover around US$700/tonne (RM2,905/tonne) in 1H2021. He forecasts global production of palm oil to increase by 3.5mil to 4mil tonnes in 2021F. CPO output in Indonesia is estimated to rise by 3mil tonnes in 2021F from about 43mil tonnes in 2020E. Thomas Mielke expects CPO production in Malaysia to be flat in 2021F.
He added that global soybean supply is ample currently in spite of weather-related losses in the US. He expects world soybean supply to increase by 21mil tonnes in 2020E/2021F as Brazil is envisaged to record a record output of 132.5mil tonnes (2019/2020E: 126.5mil tonnes).
Dorab Mistry believes that CPO production in Malaysia would be flat at 19.9mil tonnes in 2020E compared with market expectations of a decline. We believe that this implies that 4Q2020 production would be strong as Malaysia’s CPO output fell by 4.7% YoY in 8M2020. He did not give a production forecast for 2021F although he said that palm supply would be good.
Dorab has suggested a dynamic biodiesel mandate to the Indonesia government whereby if CPO prices exceed US$600/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced to B25 from B30. If CPO prices exceed US$700/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced further to B20. With this, the biodiesel mandate would still be implemented but at the same time, the smallholders would not be affected by the CPO export levy. Currently, Indonesia implements the B30 biodiesel mandate with subsidies from the CPO export levy of US$55/tonne.
I agree with what Mike said, a lot of plantation counters with huge debt especially BPLANT high debt + high borrowing cost. This is one of the very critical area to monitor for many counter in the next few quarters, ppl will only come back when the company turn to net cash.
@Mikecyc, then how about its RM4.2 Billion assets? cash flows? you can't judge a company's health as simple as financial assets - financial liabilities...do you mean that a company shldn't have any debts? If a company cash rich, what you going to do with that money? put in the bank where interest is at all time low?? Bplant don't enough cash flow to serve its debts? By the way, you know what are the debts or not? Good debts or bad debts?! Don't mislead people!
Assumed the loan interest is 4.5% pa. Yearly interest for 1.36Bn is only 61m. The company has average yearly revenue of 660m. Interest is only Less than 10% of the revenue. Is very healthy.
@Invest Icon, not sure how did you came out that it is not critical, for me 61mil in paying interest/ year is definitely a lot for a company that making RM~600-700mil/year. Imagine this, let’s assume a fresh graduate make RM3000/ month and RM300 goes to interest payment for PTPTN alone, die lah...on the other side, a company director make RM30k/ month paying an interest fee of RM300, that is sap sap water right? My humble opinion based on limited no. of years in the market is that the company asset has nothing to do with you until they sell it and you get part from it. Seriously, I will monitor its debt level closely moving forward in the next few quarters. It should generate enough cash to reduce its debt if CPO price is sustainable...
To each his own, on their views and opinions, BPLANT made a decision few years ago to buy lots of land, incurring debts, mine humble view: 1. Land might be slightly above fair value, but it is LAND, better than cash, so when they leveraged got funds and buy land, I think overall good decision, and please pray tell which currency in the world is worth having, all are FIAT money… 2. What are the chances of BPLANT defaulting? - As long as CPO is above RM2.2k they are able to maintain production of 60k MT of CPO per quarter, they can cover the interest - Indonesia & Malaysia don’t have lots of new land for growing palm oil, population is growing, food demand will also grow, thus CPO in long term will be on uptrend - They have more than 224 hectares of ripe land for development, which eventually can be used to pare down the debts, or hopefully can look to buy more land!! Buying land is a long term play, and it is not easy to buy land now, I think the rich know, money is getting smaller now, so ppl put a very high price on their land/asset, and even got buyer they still not willing to sell. To me investing in BPLANT is investing in Land, and Land that will continue to bring returns…
@Tang Khangseng Obviously you are not businessmen and don’t have any FA knowledge. Take for eg, When YTL REIT have about RM600M debt and revenue less than RM200m per annum with interest to pay amounting to RM87M a year. All analysts still give a good rating on their good cash flow and healthy financial status. A company is good or not depending on whether they have healthy positive cash flow or not, profit can cover interest and potential to growth.
@Tang Khangseng, employee’s salary of Rm3000 still have to bear his living expenses beside interest for PTPTN. A company’s profit means is net after all overhead including interest is also paid off. You are comparing an income before expenses with net income after all expenses. Think carefully before compare...
Revenue for Bplant is definitely very strong in near future. What I’m worry that can reduce their profit after tax is windfall tax that may impose when CPO exceeding RM2,500. Heard the Oil Palm association is still negotiating with government for the exemption of windfall tax
@Invest Icon, I took revenue ~600-700mil/year = engineer salary RM3k*13. Yes, I’m not a businessman nor good in FA but just voiced out my opinion and concern as an investor in BPLANT. Also share what other should watch out and know what they are buy into. It would be great to see the debt of the company can be slowly reduced in the next few quarters, follow by giving out dividend, this would be the sure direction I think everyone want to see.
dun understand what's the concern here...having debts doesn't mean it's bad...it all depends on whether it's good or bad debts. Serviceable good debts, profitable business, healthy cash flows indicates the company is still financially ok. Adding up the high spike of CPO prices now and demand, BPLANT will be earning in the next 2 quarters. The reason why the share price is down is because of contra players, market goreng covid related stocks like LKL or TOPGLOV and top players pushing down to buy more later. BPLANT for sure will go up later in Nov.
Why Rich is getting richer and poor getting poorer? Because rich man always borrow more money to invest when ever there is opportunity, But poor man always worry about having debt and his money with to lend it to rich man. This is why Rich always has huge debt.
you can see from an extremely cash rich Apple who cash can actually buy over 32 largest banks in Europe but still borrow more than 10 billions from market. What's reasons? Simply because interest is too cheap compare to investment return.
correct! No point having no debts and cash rich! with cash sitting in the company's books not generating any value over time...Malaysian mindset still stuck in old gen saving mentality where no debts and huge savings is good...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
brianklc
1,624 posts
Posted by brianklc > 2020-10-08 13:06 |
Post removed.Why?