Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-07 23:29 | Report Abuse

I added LCTITAN @ 1.11 3 trading days ago. It's trying to do a technical rebound, but a betting man would say that this rebound will fail, just like every other dozens of rebounds since that minor peak in May 2021 near 3.5x.

Fundamentally, LCTITAN is attractive on book value, but terrible on earnings due to its business cycle and ambitious over-expansion. The Book Value investors may want to start nibbling a little - we'll never be able to buy at the bottom and if you wait for good results, you'll never be able to get near bottom because by the time it publishes good results, the price will have recovered significantly.

To me, the goal is to nibble around half on the way down and around half on the way up ... something like that.

This stock has no guarantee though that it will rise anytime soon. I still nibble nevertheless precisely because I don't know the future.

Fwiw, my portfolio made new record high again today.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-07 23:35 | Report Abuse

I nibble a little at 1.11, because it's NTA is 5.23. That's like paying 21 sen, for every RM1 equity. Clearly, market is extremely fearful. But it's downtrend is not yet over. Most Book Value plays don't work out (in that it can stay undervalued for a long time) but all you need is 1 that works out to and give you nice triple digit % returns. I don't know if LCTITAN will work out or not, but I place my chips across a number and see ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-07 23:39 | Report Abuse

My position is small. My total LCTITAN holdings by market value is only 3.6% of my total equity portfolio (excluding cash). Waiting for lower prices like 1.0x to nibble and so on until it is around 5% of my total equity portfolio ...

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-11-08 17:21 | Report Abuse

what a good catch, DividendGuy67. It's moving towards 1.20

Posted by jomvalueinvest2 > 2023-11-09 14:50 | Report Abuse

Why suddenly moving up 🤔

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-11-17 09:33 | Report Abuse

i guess is chemical price up ...

Posted by jomvalueinvest2 > 2023-11-21 14:20 | Report Abuse

u were right. Import prices up for 4th month in October on higher oil, chemical prices

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2023111300900032

Posted by Stead > 2023-12-05 16:05 | Report Abuse

When is their plant in Indonesia to take shape? 2025? If that’s the case, will we continue to see red all the way until 2026?

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-12-11 15:08 | Report Abuse

with this kind of market situation, 2025 it is

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-23 02:11 | Report Abuse

No news on LCTITAN but +7.3%? Still holding ... stock is very cheap by NTA standards. The company spent billions past 2 years to convert cash into PPE, but every RM1 converted to PPE is only valued at 20-25 sen by Mr Market. Something is obviously not right here for past 1-2 years but Mr Market is very depressed.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-25 17:53 | Report Abuse

Looking at weekly charts since 2017 listing, it looks like LCTITAN is trying to put on a "round bottom", which if true suggests that 1.1 might be the low. Still too early to judge until it goes past RM1.65. Times like this is most uncertain and where the gains are also the largest if it really puts on the bottom.

Market must have been really pleased that last quarter showed first gross profit. My guess is someone must have shown a forecast of a second consecutive quarterly gross profit for this December, given December is only a few days away from closing. A second consecutive quarterly gross profit will make market excited that maybe LCTITAN might survive i.e. the billions it spent on LINE project is not going to go to zero and might be worth billions still.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-25 18:03 | Report Abuse

It is instructive to compare LCTITAN balance sheet at MRQ (30/9/23) vs say 31/12/20, before it embarks on LINE project. The difference in PPE is substantial - 5.1billion vs 14.9billion, or nearly 10 billion increase in PPE. Its cash holdings was pristine back at 31/12/20 - nearly 4 billion with zero borrowings. Today only 0.8 billion cash, with nearly 4 billion borrowings. With such massive increase in PPE of nearly RM10 billion, market penalizes LCTITAN over the past 2.75 years from RM3 down to RM1.2 say when its NAPS is steady around 5.19 to 5.23. When it price crashes, it was a DOOMSDAY scenario - a 2nd consecutive quarterly gross profit is going to convince more market participants that the earlier thought DOOMSDAY scenario might not happen and if so, there's going to be a strong reassessment of the billions invested in the LINE project. Under a normal scenario, 1 billion spent on PPE is going to valued by market by more than 1 billion, not 300 million worth i.e. this reassessment can really kick in a strong potential recovery if true ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-25 18:08 | Report Abuse

LCTITAN capital commitment continues to shrink massively. At 31/12/22, it was 7.5 billion. At 30/9/23, it is now down to 3.4 billion, i.e. more than half has been spent. From capital perspective, we might be approaching the worst soon since there's clearly not enough cash i.e. LCTITAN will need more monies to complete its capital commitments, either by borrowings or raise capital (diluting shareholders) ... with this type of price action (if it gets to RM1.65 or above), market participants will be increasingly discounting the capital raising option and thinks LCTITAN can grow by borrowing more.

We'll have to wait and see.

Best thing to do when having a position is .. do nothing.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-25 18:18 | Report Abuse

A random look at lsat 11 quarters EPS starting from Q1/21, Q2/21, ... to Q3/23.
What pattern do you see?

19.36 .. 16.81 .. 2.14 .. 8.2 .. 4.57 .. (6.41) .. (15.61) .. (13.93) .. (9.87) .. (13.76) .. (2.44).

Q1/23 looks hopeful when the loss went down from (13.93) to (9.87).
Q2/23 looks terrible, when the loss exploded from (9.87) to (13.76).
Q3/23 looks very hopeful, when the loss went down from (13.76) down to (2.44).

When a company financials improves, then, suddenly, the RM10 billlion spent into PPE gives hope and is no longer terrible. When financials deteriorated back in the earlier days and the company kept spending more and more on capital commitment, that's when the market fears the worst that this company is going to drive the business down to the ground. Of course, if the company survives, then, buying when fear is greatest will give the largest rewards. However, if the company did not survive, then, your investment would have gone down the drain together with the company. It was a massive risk taken by the company, hence, Mr Market penalizes this stock massively since 2017 listing.

Posted by Jnlee > 2023-12-26 10:51 | Report Abuse

dividendguy67, thanks for your very analytical comment

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-26 13:43 | Report Abuse

Nice! 1.39 at lunch close. Greater volume, higher RSI highs suggest outlook on this stock may have changed. Looking closer at the chart, there's that gap early this year that's begging to be closed. That's around RM1.56.

My small position has now become my 2nd largest position after these 2 days move! If I didn't buy more MAYBANK today, it would have become my largest position after these 2 days move! Let's see how the price action goes till Chinese New Year.

Posted by Davidl > 2023-12-26 14:15 | Report Abuse

Finally empire strikes back! More to go guys!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-27 09:29 | Report Abuse

This morning, I trimmed my position slightly at 1.42, to sell of the portion I bought at 1.11. 31 sen gain in just a short time is to reduce risk, as it has become too large. Some selling is necessary, to allow price to dip, to form a base, before the next move.

Thanks to LCTITAN, my portfolio has made a new all time high again today.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-12-28 10:48 | Report Abuse

Chemical price is rising?

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-03 10:08 | Report Abuse

breaking Rm1.40 again... turn profits in upcoming q4 I guess

Posted by heesing62 > 2024-01-03 17:25 | Report Abuse

Let’s hope upcoming quarter they made some profits . Based on current financial status this share is undervalued. Probably because 75% of the shares owned by Lotte HQ , thus prices being suppressed. Minority shareholders must have the will power to hold on . NTA more than 5.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-03 20:31 | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh! So nice. 1.45 close, higher than swing high of 1.43 a week ago. Decent chance to close the gap at 1.56.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-05 14:14 | Report Abuse

I think it follows KOSPI going up and down, technically speaking

Posted by JLKL12 > 2024-01-09 15:40 | Report Abuse

Ppl is collecting the shares..

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-09 16:59 | Report Abuse

wow, its momentum is strong today. Excellent QR is coming this month

Posted by heesing62 > 2024-01-09 17:33 | Report Abuse

Something is cooking. Hope it can maintain the momentum …..

Posted by lloydlim > 2024-01-09 18:41 | Report Abuse

Big fund is buying recently, good news ahead!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-09 19:09 | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh ... so nice. 1.53 close, higher than swing high 1.45 a week ago. Thank-you LCTITAN plus 21 other green stocks to offset 10 reds, to allow my portfolio to hit a new all time high again today, after yesterday and 4 prior days. What a superb start to 2024 after a strong 2023!

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-10 19:30 | Report Abuse

Next station will be Rm1.60

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-15 22:56 | Report Abuse

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/lctitan.html.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-18 09:14 | Report Abuse

When will LC Titan announce its Q4 exactly?

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2024-01-18 17:30 | Report Abuse

Dec 23 { Qtr result } will be announced end of January

Posted by staind86 > 2024-01-20 22:05 | Report Abuse

I doubt there will be profit this quarter. Polymer market condition is still weak.

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-01-22 10:07 | Report Abuse

Recovery? so fast climb up ?

Posted by curiousq > 2024-01-22 10:10 | Report Abuse

sifu said much be very very careful with korean

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-01-24 20:04 | Report Abuse

Who is that sifu? 😆

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Lctitan 4qtr result ending Dec 31 continues to bleed. Losses narrow down to - 186 million. Whole year result showed losses widen to -780 million { FY 23 } vs -730 million a year ago. Not a good sign

Posted by lloydlim > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

GG.com?

Posted by Blue Tulip > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Insiders knew the Qr was not going to be good. Thus, they pushed up the price, hoping that retailers would jump in. Once the Qr is released, they knew that retailers would dump the stocks. Thus, they short-sell. That's why short-selling mechanism is banned in Korea.

Posted by Plantermen > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Not only short selling but LCtitan cash is burning fast. FY 2022 - 730 Million loss, FY 2023 - 780Million loss. FY 2024 - Forecast 1billion loss. Not forgetting LCtitan finance loan of 11 billion for their Indonesia plant. This is really bad looking at thier numbers

Posted by Blue Tulip > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I wonder who pushed up the price a month before yesterday, knowing that their cash is burning fast?

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Insider luring & trapping retailers. Remember LC Titan is a foreign based .They don't give a hook what happens. Now we understand why they never sought a listings in Singapore or Indonesia

Posted by Amazonboy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Louzy korean management....no plan B...oil will be high price..naphta high price..demand low...better 2 closedown...Lol

Posted by Blue Tulip > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

In Malaysia, short-sellers make a lot of money. Unfortunately, retailers like us can't short-sell from our screen.

Posted by curiousq > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

korean harvest delicious malaysian kucai and enjoy eating 😍

Posted by icecool > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

how low will it go ?

Posted by kasinathan > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

90cents

Posted by xcu843 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This Korean CEO tak boleh pakai and need to step down immediately. He need to responsible on failed delivery profit for 7 quarters.

Posted by Nepo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Valuetrap stk..

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

You mean football coach from Korea?