Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-07-28 14:58 | Report Abuse

korean scammers, bite me once, shame on you, bite me twice, shame on me.

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-07-30 08:42 | Report Abuse

its 1.15?

and bob's your uncle

Posted by tealeaf > 2023-07-30 14:38 | Report Abuse

lousy korean co ... i trapped near 3 ..

Posted by BursaVulture > 2023-07-31 10:51 | Report Abuse

wtf, you bought at 3? is it because of Choivo's article? There was a period... i think OTB 'read' Choivo's article and told his supporters to invest, say got bright future. Choivo predict it to read Rm6 if I am not mistaken.

I know they've delisted before. Just like Maxis. Never trust such management.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-07-31 10:54 | Report Abuse

Never catch a falling knives. 3qtr Fy 23 ending Sep.finacing cost on the 11 billion kicks in

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 17:59 | Report Abuse

This stock is volatile. It dropped below RM1 before during Covid scare (Mar 2020). Then, it rallied 3.5 times to over RM3.50 in 12 months. And now, it's doing a "die slowly" drop for 2+ years ... still downtrending and trading below the 200dMA and the slope of the 200dMA is still down - it's trying to form a base. That base will take a long time to form. I'm still unsure if lower prices is a buy, as this company has taken on a lot of debt and what was previously excellent Balance Sheet has now turned messy. However, the business it's in is cyclical and as it so happens, current cycle is not so good. Utilization was 66%, management seems optimistic that this will rise to 70%-75% in the coming months, but nobody really knows the future. I feel I already have enough, so, likely there's nothing to do but to sit tight.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:08 | Report Abuse

3 years ago, it's hard to believe that LCTITAN's Net Cash was worth RM1.69 (nearly RM4 billion).
Today, all that Net Cash is gone ... zero and negative once include borrowings. As a result, today's price is hovering near RM1.
This is a classic case of how ambitious management destroys wealth:
1. Net Cash alone is meaningless - the stockmarket is littered with examples where new ambitious management who inherited the Net Cash destroys all past hard work.
2. The problem with this company is that it doesn't share more regularly the previous Net Cash with shareholders.
3. The bigger problem is that management is not held accountable by shareholders - shareholders let management destorys wealth. Else, the CEO and the whole management team should already be sacked, but it's far too late for that now.

Had they not be so ambitious, this stock will still be trading 2-3 times higher than today..... and I wouldn't have bought a single share!!! Haha.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:10 | Report Abuse

Bottom may still not be in sight. Analyst recommendations: 1 Sell, 1 Hold, 2 Buys. When the 2 Buys become Hold/Sell, then, can safely go in and accumulate. Haha.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:17 | Report Abuse

From last AGM:

What is the anticipated dividend rate for FYE 2023?
The Company has a dividend policy of paying 50% of our profit. We will continue to meet that
requirement and pay the 50% dividend on profit. If the Company has sufficient cash like last year,
we will consider declaring special dividend to reward shareholders, subject to Board approval.

Commentary: Looks like in 2023, there won't be any dividends paid since:
1. Expected Net Profit is negative i.e. nil Dividends.
2. Net Cash is negative i.e. nil Special Dividends.

When will all analysts call for a Sell? Then, the bottom will come quicker.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:24 | Report Abuse

The primary feedstock for LCTITAN's business is naphtha. Since July 2023, Naphtha prices has risen from a low of USD520/T to near USD700/T ... it'll be interesting to watch the Q3 report at the end of this Oct - the question is will Q3 losses be even bigger than Q2 loss?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:29 | Report Abuse

Such a sorry state of affairs. This company's NAV is around 5.25/shr, yet, the stock is trading only at RM1.15, and the company - that used to be flushed with cash, but now in debt, and expects the debt to keep rising - can't afford to do any share buyback, despite TREMENDOUS value .... Price/Book is only 0.22 ... basically every RM1 of asset in the company is only worth 22 sen ... including the RM4 billion recently spent to convert cash into asset. Such an extremely sorry state of affairs. The entire Board and Senior Management responsible for this sorry state of affairs should all be sacked.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:36 | Report Abuse

For shareholders, the biggest worry is whether the company will start asking for rights issue in the coming 1-2 years. The capital needs is at least another RM5.5 billion for the LINE project and more. Already, the company is in net debt position. This is another RM2.50 equivalent of debt to be had. Current company price is RM1.15. Shareholders should grill the Board and Management whether or not they foresee rights issue in the next 3 years to dilute existing shareholder's share. Analysts should analyze this angle more and be more transparent in their next 3 year projections, if there's going to be further shareholder dilution. Then, recommend SELL clearly!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:39 | Report Abuse

In summary:
- No Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No Special Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No sign of bottoming to the Borrowings.
- Company needs to commit to borrow even more - maybe another RM5.5 billion.
- The entire Company's equity is not enough to back. Debt to Market Cap is ridiculously high.
- Feedstock naphtha is still on its way up and getting more costly to further create even bigger losses to come.
- Very likely to have further shareholder dilution.

What is keeping analysts from seeing these bad news over the coming 2-3 years?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:45 | Report Abuse

Perhaps all the Buy Analysts are too junior and believe the 60:40 Debt:Equity promise.
- On paper, the Equity is huge. RM15.6 billion. (equivalent to RM5.25/share).
- On paper, 60:40 means they can borrow up to RM25 billion!!
- Current market cap is only RM2.6 billion.

If this company borrows RM25 billion with Debt / Market Cap of 10 times, will this company still be around or all its assets will have already been liquidated and go into PN17? How real is the equity of RM5.25/share when market is valuing these at RM1.15??? I would say practically impossible because noone has the cash, else, they would already be grabbing LCTITAN at RM1.15/share ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 18:48 | Report Abuse

LCTITAN competitor looking to expand should seriously consider buying LCTITAN share. LCTITAN spends RM4 billion cash to turn cash into asset where buying LCTITAN shares would be like buying these RM 4 billion assets at the price of 22 sen for every RM1 spent. No need to expand themselves - all of them should band in, just buy LCTITAN shares and when have enough, execute a breakup and own these assets at massive discounts. They should punish LCTITAN Board and senior management for being so ambitious and irresponsible - the best punishment is get rid of them!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 19:12 | Report Abuse

In Q3/23, LCTITAN's feedstock costs have soared 30-35%. Sure, its outputs PP/PE market price has also gone up but only by 5% or so ... LCTITAN's competitors like LCTITAN has seen their inventories rising in the past ... Will be interested to see if they will be able to make real change to their inventories in the coming Q3 report in October.

I think the only reason why I am still holding is because it may be possible that PP prices have already seen their cycle low. Last 2 cycle lows were Jan 2016 and Mar 2020. Was May 2023 the cycle low or more new lows to come? If May 2023 turns out to be cycle low, then, may be good to accumulate LCTITAN ... problem though is that by the time LINE comes on board in 2025, PP prices may have peaked and come down i.e. all these ramped up production will have come to nought if PP prices starts to come down instead of rising.

Hard as it may, maybe the best thing for LCTITAN is to accelerate further its borrowings to complete faster its LINE project so that by the time it's ready for production, they can sell at rising rather than declining PP cycle prices.

However, speeding up the LINE project including accelerating borrowings further should further cause LCTITAN share price to fall, as market is already so fearful. Board and Management have already been super ambitious, why not even more DOUBLY, DOUBLY ambitious??? ;-)

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-06 19:19 | Report Abuse

But if I have to choose between LCTITAN and PCHEM, I would consider PCHEM better. In my view, this company is better positioned to benefit from the next upcycle than LCTITAN, because of LCTITAN getting bogged down in its LINE project and so, won't be so clean to benefit from it.

Unlike my paper loss in LCTITAN, my holdings in PCHEM is already up by +13%. As they say, you should ride your winners and let your losses go ... I won't cut, but I think I may add PCHEM on dips over the next year or 2.

Posted by speakup > 2023-08-06 21:22 | Report Abuse

Pchem is way better
Lctitan the game plan seem to be list at high -> privatise at low -> list at high -> privatise at low -> ........ (repeat repeat repeat)

Posted by Nepo > 2023-08-20 15:47 | Report Abuse

Definitely choose Pchem
I also already bought some Pchem in my portfolio and waiting to buy more if it further drop below RM 6..
Avoid Lctitian, bad mgt couple with value trap

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2023-08-30 00:20 | Report Abuse

Price 1.25
Support 1.10(If no break to confirm upward)
Tp 1.60-1.80
30/8/23 12.20am

Posted by Nepo > 2023-09-07 08:30 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/680419

Posted by Nepo > 2023-09-07 08:31 | Report Abuse

Still not the right time to buy this shares
From the info above need to wait until 2025..

Posted by Nepo > 2023-09-07 08:34 | Report Abuse

Extract:-

"On a bright note, the RM18 billion Lotte Chemical Indonesia Ethylene (LINE) project in Indonesia is seen as a key catalyst for LCT upon its completion in 2025, as it is set to propel the group into the top three companies in the industry in Southeast Asia, with the other two being Thailand-based Siam Cement Group pcl and PTT Global Chemical pcl."

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-09-07 10:00 | Report Abuse

Turnaround in 2025 when their Indonesia plant expansion is completed.

Posted by stevenckheng > 2023-09-08 20:09 | Report Abuse

too much dependent on china market ? revenue so low even after inflation

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-09-08 20:13 | Report Abuse

Its 1.19
The Extinction Event occurred as predicted

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-13 20:45 | Report Abuse

Turnaround may take longer than 2025 or may not come at all. If during good times, they lose monies, the bet in turnaround is not prudent. At best one can only *hope* for speculations of a turnaround. The company’s financial structure is permanently altered 2 years ago with the huge loans vs massive Net Cash then. This is no longer the same company. Bad case of mismanagement. The loss is permanent.

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-10-05 12:26 | Report Abuse

Yes. Looking at their Financial { the last 2 years have been deteriorating and their business operation crimped by high inventories and lack lustre sales. This is without the interest cost added on for theit line plant expansion. Total group borrowing's USD 2.5 { 11 - 12 MYR} billion over 10 years is a drain on their P&L° not forgetting their competitor in China, Thailand & India has been ramping up thier own plant expansion. 2 years from now their buisness expansion may or maynot be exactly they forsee previously. Coming 3qtr result { ending 30th Sept} will be announced in late October. We may see another big hit on their bottom line

Posted by investingiscommonsen > 2023-10-09 17:37 | Report Abuse

Hi, Below is my analysis of Lotte Chemical Titan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/investmentknowledge/2023-10-09-story-h-218002563-testing

Posted by Amazonboy > 2023-10-11 17:18 | Report Abuse

I like titan...make money pay good divvy...hope this q can make profit...lol

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-10-13 11:05 | Report Abuse

Wonder Lctitan will give dividend this year or not ...

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-10-19 21:11 | Report Abuse

Coming 3rd Qtr Sep {2023} result will be announced by end Oct. The last 5-6 qtr result was bad. LCtitan posted negative and unfavourable performance due to challenging market conditions. Demand for polymer related product is lack lustre. The company may pay a token dividend payout to avoid further down grade by the IB's analyst. Just my 2 sen

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-10-20 08:27 | Report Abuse

Lctitan also borrowed USD 2.5 billion { 10 years floating interest rate tem loan } to built their plant expansion in Indonesia. The king dollar is now at 4.75 =MYR 11.9 billion . USD was trading around 4.15 at end Oct 2021. Forex losses is substantial at 15% which Lctitan needs to write down on thier P&L

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-10-20 14:34 | Report Abuse

Then hard for Lctitan to show better performance in Q3 ...

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-10-20 16:27 | Report Abuse

Yes. Q3 will be bad

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-10-24 16:16 | Report Abuse

Maybank investments see LOTTE CHEMICAL losses widenening & exoanding in the 3rd & 4th quarter of 2023. The investment bank estimated core losses for the cumulative 9 mth period would range betw 650 Million to 700 million. The research house has a sell call on LCtitan following the downward revision.

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-10-24 16:57 | Report Abuse

Their losses wiped out whatever profits they earned during the petrochemical upcycle. Dont expect negative CF to sustain dividend payout.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-10-25 09:54 | Report Abuse

KLCI up. Lctitan still stuck in a sink hole. Best scenario. recovery in 2025/2026

Posted by jomvalueinvest2 > 2023-10-25 12:50 | Report Abuse

Gearing ratio of LCtitan is too high ..

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-10-25 22:10 | Report Abuse

Yes. The interest rate for the USD 2.4 billion will be charged at SOFR + agreed margin spread of dollar denominated loans. Currently SOFR is at 5.4%+1% margin spread =6.4% in USD. The USD is now trading at 4.8 MYR . 20 year high vs our local ringgit

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-10-26 16:08 | Report Abuse

No dividend will be given for this year I guess

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-10-30 11:06 | Report Abuse

No point holding & getting the 3 sen dividend but a possibility of the price drop another 10 sen.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-10-30 11:41 | Report Abuse

Out of 5 analyst covering the stock
Consensus price is at 0.83 - 1.00 based on the FY 2024 earnings . Not a sell/buy call . Please do your own research before you buy or sell

Posted by jomvalueinvest2 > 2023-10-31 13:29 | Report Abuse

let's see if it will move towards the analysts' consensus price or not next month

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-11-01 12:32 | Report Abuse

LCtitan was on a down trend since 2021 after reporting operating losses for the past 7 or 8 consecutive quaters. There is a real strong possibility LCtitan core net loss to widen on higher oil price in the coming Q4. The margin and spread of naphtha polymer & glycol continued to decline and weaken which will impart and hit LCtitan bottom line negatively {Not forgetting the USD 2.5 billion denominated dollars loan}

Posted by Plantermen > 2023-11-02 09:04 | Report Abuse

What's worrying is emerging of new competitor & efficient entrants in the highly competitive chemicals industry . Apart from China, Thailand, Malaysia and now Vietnam is eyeing a part of the business. Vietnam is starting their trial in the Southern province of BA Ria. The integrated petrol chemical industrial complex built at a cost of USD 5.1 billion this month. The Southern petrochemical complex is developed Vietnamese owned Long Son company. Our MNC Petronas chemical is also branching out their industrial production of polymers which include olefind

Posted by stockraider > 2023-11-02 10:17 | Report Abuse

U invest in this type of stock when it is in a cyclical low....around close to now loh!

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2023-11-02 11:04 | Report Abuse

Looks like Lctitan can only turn around after their Indonesia plant expansion completed only in 2025. This is why { CGB -Cimb Analyst } negative outlook on Lctitan FY 2024/2025. Price may have more room to trade lower. Based on IB analysts price calls. Best to wait and see how bad is their Q4 { ending Dec 23} perform.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2023-11-03 10:34 | Report Abuse

then have to wait next year to see their Q4 😆

Posted by jomvalueinvest2 > 2023-11-06 12:05 | Report Abuse

still doesn't drop to 0.83 - 1.00 ...I guess it will stay at 1.10 - 1.20 level until end of this year ..