HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
wtclau> For a start you can go to chart school at www.stockcharts.com to learn more about the patterns and the basics. If you want to get a book, can consider "Technical Analysis Explained - the successful investor's guide to spotting investment trends and turning points" by Martin J. Pring
ProfitMan> Yes I think currently in the market, only CIMB has a downloadable trading/chart software which comes with a monthly subscription fee. The rest of the broking firms only offer web-based trading platform. Correct me if I am wrong, as I may not have come across all the broking firms in M'sia.
Hi Mc_Wei, nice to know you in this thread. Thanks for the chart school website and also for the book recommendation . I am learning TA albeit slowly. Do share your expertise and help us to have some advantage when we make our stock purchases.
I am sure all in this thread or ( IN TCB )would like to have more TA sifus to guide us.
Mc_Wei --Thanks for helping out on TA books and the link of stockchart.com. We would like you to share your TA with us here so we all can learn together.
Wtclau--For a beginner in TA, Martin Pring book ( which is very good), maybe is too technical for you to start. Depend what you find comfortable, but personally I like candlestick and there are many books in bookstores for beginner in Candlestick. I would also suggest that for a beginner, please do not read too many indicators as you will be confused. Try to understand Price, Volume, Chart Patterns, Support and Resistance and candlesticks well first.
JoJo118 > #Bro Matrixcool, Can u please help to check on Asuprem ? Thanks.. #
From my screen the stock has been suspended since 08/05/2014, I think you need to wait until they lift the suspension, then we can help you to look at the chart.
Mat, are you still in Engtex ? Red red today cos the financial report out yesterday was not favourable. Let me know if you are getting out, ya? Thanks.
ENGTEX—Very bearish and it open with a Fallen Window that resemble Breakaway gap and the Bearish trend should continue. I have not cleared my ENGTEX because it has not violated my Stop Loss at $1.84.
nana88, I am not sure what kind traders you are but I am a short term trader, that is why I set my Stop Loss at $1.84 if violated. For medium term traders their Stop Loss is at $1.65 if violated.
If you are short term trader like me, I would suggest the following actions: a) Cleared when $1.84 is violated, take your losses like me and move on. b) Hold on as today Fallen Gap ($1.93 to $1.90) need to be filled eventually, clear to reduce your losses when it close that fallen Gap.But you may need to go through some teeth biting days when it keep falling and I can"t tell you how soon the gap will be filled.
In Stock Trading, SELLING is the Most difficult part, but still it is the most important decision to make on your own.
Don”t worry, before I dispose off my ENGTEX I will definitely post it here to alert you.
JoJo118 > You did not realize Asuperm is suspended?
Thanks for your advise. Lets hope 1.84 is not violated and it's just a 'knee jerk' reaction. I used to be mid-term trader but slowly moving towards short-term trading.
Joyous > # Good morning, can check on inari please?#
INARI—Stage 2 of the cycle and very Bullish, try its peak of $2.91 on 14/05 but failed to clear to explore the uncharted territory. It is consolidating after recent upward movement and any weakness should find immediate support at $2.74/$2.67. Very strong support at $2.56 and any weakness offer opportunity to collect for future play. Exit if $2.55 is violated.
nana88--Now are we praying to Stock God? (Joke Joke). Even it does not break $1.84 ENGTEX has turned Bearish Ok? So do have a plan either to reduce your losses not sure about your ccost, but my cost is $1.92. Imay want to release my capital when there is a rebound. If not i will just take my losses as what i have planned earlier before buying into ENGTEX.
I've been following this thread for a while and find it very helpful and informative to a newbie like me. Many thanks to Matrix and everyone who contribute a lot in this thread.
I would like to ask if someone can comment on IRCB?
Joyous - the support of 0.24 remains. Does not change so fast unless there is a series of drastic price moves which calls for a reassessment of the immediate support level.
"INARI—Stage 2 of the cycle and very Bullish, try its peak of $2.91 on 14/05 but failed to clear to explore the uncharted territory. It is consolidating after recent upward movement and any weakness should find immediate support at $2.74/$2.67. Very strong support at $2.56 and any weakness offer opportunity to collect for future play. Exit if $2.55 is violated. "
Matrixcool> Mind to share how did you derive S1 and S2 of 2.74 and 2.67? I see a potential double top forming at 2.91, however a double top is only valid and confirmed if 2.56 is violated.
nana88 - yes, you are right. Quite a number of sell transactions. Do remember, for every sell, there is always a buy. At the end of the day, it depends how well these selling pressures are absorbed.
farue, Sp BoiBoi, Welcome to our thread. Since both of you are new I would like to inform you that a new thread by us call “Technical Code Breakers”@TCB will be launched next week to help traders on TA. If you have any query on TA do post on our new thread and we be glad to help.
Farure, will look at IRCB for you later as need to go out , or anyone to help farure here on IRCB chart?
Sp BoiBoi—I based my trading solely on TA, I do not know how to calculate intrinsic value of a company. Anyone can help here on company intrinsic value??
Mc_Wei You use the right word “Potential” Double Top formation, for the Double top formation, we will never know until it happens.
For INARI the immediate support of $2.74/$2.67 which I derived. If you look at the chart on 07/05 a Doji was formed with a low of $2.67 meaning indecision.Then you look at the candle the day before which has a high of $2.73. In candlestick we interpret that if after a Doji, the next day candle if break above $2.73 previous day high( I allow I pip to confirm the break above at $2.74) with a bigger volume signal BUY and that level $2.74/$2.67 becomes immediate support. This is my way of reading and many may not agree as I know many use SMA to identify supports. I accept their ways as long as they are comfortable with it.
Yap, the level to observe for INARI is $2.56 that is why I advise those that trader INARI to exit if $2.55 is violated.Confirmation of Double Top formation.
Novice8, MUDA break below $1.88 today most likely to head to next support of $1.82. My Stop Loss is at $1.78 but for mid term trader the Stop Loss is $1.58. I collected some yesterday and may collect more near $1.82/$1.78.
nana88—I remember I used to trade like that, praying the stocks I bought will move up. Ha, those days are behind me, I look at the stocks without any more emotion, when it hit my Stop Loss I am out and move on. When it turns Bearish I will exit on any opportunity to release my capital. When I am on a winning stock like MINHO I just set my Trailing Stop to protect my profits.
If you ask me, Engtex is the front runner for pipe supply to Langat 2 project, just because it makes less profits this quarter everyone is like it has turned to a bad Company overnight. The stock market is all about emotion, fear and greed and nothing else.
On a downtrend. Formed a bullish engulfing candle on 18/4 and tested a high of 0.39 on 19/4 with volume. Due to the overhang in the share, it came under selling pressure and is now consolidating. It needs to close the gap resistance at 0.34 successfully before attempting to break the resistance at 0.36. Need to clear 0.37 with volume to break out from its downtrend line convincingly. May have bottomed out at 0.295.
FA - please note that it does not have good fundamentals.
This chart is not available live due to its suspension but I will try to help you using ChartNexus. Before suspension, it formed a bearish harami indicating uncertainties in the counter. The doji that followed added to the uncertainties. Temporarily found support at 0.11 with resistance, which is the gap resistance, at 0.145. Of course, upon its suspension uplifting, it has to be reassessed again.
FA - poor fundamentals. Negative cash flow from operations in 2012.
Sp BoiBoi - I will try to help you. Intrinsic value (IV): You need to have some basic finance knowledge to understand its calculations.
You will have read that there are various methods for calculating intrinsic value - Benjamin Graham's growth formula, Residual Income Model, Discounted Cashflow model (DCF), Dividend Discount Model and other variations by different experts. It all sounds fantastic and confusing too. The most commonly used method is the DCF method, my personal preference too. It involves calculating free cash flows and assigning discount rates and terminal rates. I won't go into the details. You will need to sit down, find a good explanation of it in a book or online and go through it slowly.
1st important question - which model should I use? You can go with just one model, in which I will suggest to you the DCF method or some investors use 2 or more models to calculate and then compare the values (can be time consuming). Last resort - if you still don't get the calculation, there are online IV calculators.
2nd important question - what should I do with the value? Depends on whether you trade TA or FA. I won't go into details. If not I will be filling up Matrix thread. IV is just a guide. The share may or may not reach its IV or it may take a long time to reach it. But it does give us an idea of how expensive or cheap the share is currently.
Hi Mat, haha! No la... I don't pray for that cos I know it can go either way cos you have always reminded us of a trading plan. I agree with you, fundamentally for Engtex is still intact.
Jasonshteh - sorry, that is one feature I do not use. I have my own spreadsheet for it. Would appreciate if someone who uses the calculator can answer Jason here. Thanks. So sorry, Jason.
ProfitMan--Not sure about others, I am confused !! Because I have zero knowledge in Finance..
nana88, Supermax—Stage 4 of the cycle to be avoided. If you are thinking of bottom fishing please exit if $2.26 is violated. I used to trade this counter few times and the last time I cleared mine is close to $3.00. I feel for those that were caught up there.
Mc_Wei ,well done and thanks for helping out on PICORP. You mentioned of Resistance ($0.30) turns support and immediate target of $0.345 is spot on. Please put in more inputs in our new thread which we will start next week.
For TA discussion purpose, for Double Bottoms formation I would like to see more volume when it accelerated downward for the two bottoms. I think you know Double Bottom is just opposite of Double Tops and during Double Top is the opposite that the volume should reduce when hit the two tops.
PICORP can be considered as Rectangle Trading between $0.255 to $0.30 and a break above $0.30 gives an immediate estimated target of $0.345 as mentioned by you. In Rectangle Trading the volume reduces when it is near support at $0.255 and volume increases when it rebound from the support.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!