HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
The bullish engulfing pattern on 6/5 is a significant bullish reversal indication. After a series of consolidation, it formed another bullish engulfing pattern on 14/5 and could be poised to trend higher. Need to clear its immediate resistance at 0.30 convincingly to test its next resistance level at 0.34 before attempting to take out the evening star formation of 25/4. Immediate support is 0.265 while it should find major support at 0.22/0.225.
If it can take out the 2 resistance level convincingly, the bullish engulfing pattern of 14/5 would mark the end of wave 2 on the Elliot and it would now embark on wave 3, the bullish phase.
Gerry188 - very good point. As you may be probably aware, sometimes when new data surfaced, they may call for a recount. Yes, to my interpretation, wave 1 is an extended wave. Different wave readers can have different interpretations. If you are trading based solely on waves, then the sub-waves becomes critical.
gerry188 - Can't say I am very advanced because I do not really read sub-waves and frankly, sometimes I too find it confusing. As you may be aware, the thread "chrissyconn" trades wave and there are some very good wave readers there like skyhawk, ct, connie and others.
LBAlum - Broke out with volume on 17/4 and attained an unsustainable high of 0.815 on 18/4. It has since consolidated. It is currently trending up since the tweezer bottom formed on 5 & 6/4, a bullish reversal indication.
Immediate support = 0.63. If it fails to hold, it should find strong support at 0.615. Based on the readings, 0.63 seems to be a strong support.
Immediate resistance = 0.78 with a major resistance at 0.815. If the bullish trend is successful, it carries a TP1 of 0.75 and TP2 of 0.83. (Note: TP is just a guide)
Update analysis: Consolidating. Immediate resistance is now at 0.745 while the immediate support is at 0.68.
carson--chat reading for harvest HARVEST—Breakout from the Round Bottom at $0.30 on the weekly chart which carry an estimated target of $0.40 in mid term. For short term very Bullish stage 2 of the cycle with 3 White Soldiers formation. It hit high of $0.36 yesterday, but formed an almost Black Spinning Top implies some consolidation is expected. Any weakness should find immediate support at $0.30/$0.26 which offer buying opportunity for future play. Once the level of $0.36 is broken it should be moving towards the target of $0.40 /$0.425. For short term trader exit if $0.27 is violated as the next meaningful support is at $0.23.
Dino, I don”t think you can download Metastock for free, it is a software that is under license. I bought mine years ago and now subscribed to data which I need to pay yearly.
PREBHD—Collected some Presbhd for some quick trade, yesterday formed an Engulfing Bull during down trends imply maybe the Bear has shifted to Bull for PREDBHD.
MINHO broke above my TP2 of $1.23/$1.26 and I have raised my Trailing Stop from $1.14 to $1.19 to protect my profits. The next Target as posted earlier is at $1.30/$1.32.
0.24 is supposed to be a strong support. It was sold down to 0.24 but buyers came out and bid the price higher to close at 0.245. Which means, for the time being 0.24 is a good support level. If it falls below 0.24, high chance that it will trend down to 0.205. Should this level of support be further broken, the counter will now be in a bearish phase, a phase we want to avoid trading in.
Just like to add for TA purpose about Gap Support:
We traders believe any Gap needs to be filled eventually, the timing of when it will be filled is not known. So when a stock like KTB which is under consolidation the strong support is expected to be the Gap support of $0.24/$0.235. If this support is filled and break below( show lots of weakness), please observe the very important support of KTB which is at $0.205. Refer to my earlier post if this level is violated with volume you may want to exit as it confirms the Double Top formation which has Bearish implication.
Harvest, if play play n be quick its ok.. just dont be the last one holding the baby when the party ends n the music stop..too many alrdy kena cot by this goreng counter..ceeriooo..
Hi matrixcool and profitman, thank you so much for your explain action. I understand more now.
From what I see now, the price of ktb is 0.24. I see the vol for q-buy of 0.24 is taken up slowly, almost all taken up. Then there's buyer came out and bid at the price again. Meaning it is still supporting? It is in this way?
HanTuaKee-Thanks for your caution statement on Harvest, that is why whatever stock one trade do have an exit plan ready before buying just in case the stock is manipulated.
joyous, i do not follow KTb so really cannot comment on your statement. Anyone who follows KTB would like to give some comments?
matrix..yes always admire ur discipline to take profit or cut loss..as they said ..selling is the most difficult part..thats why alot get caught at the top when the move finishes...
copy from yesterday: News Flash!!! > For the next two-three months; FBMKLCI will be 'supported' to PUSH up 1890+; ending with Q4 2014 = 1900!
Today already start BUY calls for few Blue Chips counter. BIG SUPPORT will come, SMALL investors should jump in now! Contra TRADERS will realize this buy June-July; but too high enough to play then... INVESTORS should take this chance
-forwarded from a reliable source-
If true then its time to look into it seriously..........
Any1 heard this also??? comments/opinion plse... TQ
Better to look at charts then to listen to rumours. Market movement is not determined by 1 or 2 person/group who can simply push.
Besides, World Cup season is coming, not to forget puasa month to begin next month. Based on historical trends market are usually quiet during these events, furthermore this year, these 2 events happen at the same time.
HanTuaKee > You are absolutely right, Selling the most difficult part of trading because of our greed and fear. Thanks for your kind words, ya, I find the only way to make money in this stock market in the long run is to be disciplined.
YatYeeSam—Even though you are just只是路过 ...We welcome you as . The market is full of talks all the time, some said Sell in May, June because of the world cup and so much information it can be confusing at times. Thanks for sharing your information about KLSE hitting 1900, hope it will get there so all traders can benefit from the stock market. After all, we are here for one purpose that is trying to make money.
Mc_Wei --Thanks for sharing your thoughts..
matrix6050 --I am looking at the charts you requested.
matrix6050 # Hey Matrixcool bro, what's your thought on mitra, gadang-wa, fitters? # ?
matrix6050—I have done Mitra in March and April.
MITRA—Very Bullish, after trading in the rectangle for almost 2 years plus, it breakout from $0.525 on the daily chart with volume and carry an immediate target of $0.585, TP2=$0.625 and long term target of $0.725.It is very bullish and any consolidation should find support at $0.555 and strong support at $0.525( Resistance turns support). Any weakness offer opportunity to collect for future play. Exit if $0.465 is violated.-- Cherry tomato( 12/03)
After the reading, it actually broke all those targets I mentioned in March.. Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish. Breakout from the round bottom on the weekly chart (Bullish implication) and has an estimated target of $0.79/$0.835.if break may try its previous high of $0.925/$0.935. Immediate support adjusts to $0.705/$0.675 and any weakness offer buying opportunity for future play. Congratulation, you are on a winner, but do remember to set a Trailing Stop to protect your profits in case there is a big pullback.(April)
May 15th
It hit my estimated target of $0.835 and actually to a new high of $0.875. It is expected to test my next target of $0.925/$0.935 if $0.875 is taken out. Any consolidation should find immediate support at $0.835 /$0.815 and very strong support at $0.77/$0.74 which offer opportunity to collect for future play.
GADANG-WA—Stage 2 of the cycle and very Bullish. Hit the high of $1.16 on 18/04 and started its consolidation due to recent rally and may have found a new bottom in $0.85 at 29/04. It broke out from the Bullish flag on a Flag Pole pattern on 08/05 which is bullish and carry an estimated target of $1.30. Volatility is extremely low and upward momentum has slowed down so it may retest immediate support at $1.01 and strong support of $0.95. A break above $1.08 and it is expected to retest its previous high of $1.16 and TP of $1.30.. For short term trader exit if $0.85 is violated.
profitMan, SF, htyeap , Mc_Wei or any TA here can you help out the chart of FITTERS as I need to go out now..
To encourage people to learn TA, I suggest we use this platform to exchange ideas on our studies on certain charts and then allow the seniors to comment or correct the findings, instead of asking straight out for answers.
matrix6050 > FITTERS—Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish. After hitting high of $1.13 on 23/04 and it went through some healthy consolidation and may have found a new bottom at $0.955. It has started to rebound from the new low and testing its immediate resistance at $1.04. A break above $1.04 with volumes, it is expected to re test its previous high of $1.13 and beyond with next resistance at $1.10.Immediate support adjusts to 41.00 with strong support at $0.955. Short term trader may want to set the Stop Loss level is $0.95 is violated.
Mc_Wei--The problem is some traders have no TA knowledge so we would like to encourage them to start TA so that they can trade with more confident.
John Wong--Welcome to our thread, we are looking at your requests as there are quite a few charts we do need some times to look at them..
Earlier analysis by SF and my additional comments as at 30/4:
SBCCORP (by SF)- The price is quite volatile now. The support at 2.14 is very easy to break, if further sell down it may test 2.01 and 1.87. The market is driven by fear and greed. So like Matrix always say, we need to be discipline to every trade and plan before we enter into a trade (when to cut loss and when to take profit).
Just to add to SF, from my interpretation, I believe it is now undergoing wave 4 which is a corrective wave, which means you can expect some more retracement bringing the price down. Only after this comes the upward wave which you can expect price to move up.
Update analysis on 11/5:
It did broke the support at 2.14, trended down to a low of 2.12, tested and found support at 2.06. The doji with 2 subsequent inverted hammers underpinned by decreasing volumes pre-empts a potential price shift with decreasing selling pressures. Please note that this is not a buy signal. It needs to take out the resistance at 2.26/2.27 and in the process will also take out the engulfing bear on 5/5 to signal the start of wave 5, the last bullish phase on the Elliot wave. Immediate support is now at 2.06. If you are bottom fishing, please set your stop loss price in case the trade turns against you.
Update analysis:
Managed to break the resistance of 2.26/2.27 on 14/5 but not convincingly. Still testing to break the resistance.
I have done the chart reading for Destini in March and early April: DESTINI—After hitting high of $0.605 on 11/02 which formed a ‘Dark Cloud” the same day implies some pull back which it did. The big pull back from $0.605 to $0.445 must have shaken out lots of traders, especially it broke below $0.50 and $0.465. It finds a new low of $0.445 on 04/03 with an “Engulfing Bull” implies more rebound, which it did. Today it breaks out from its immediate downtrend line ($0.52) with volume so it is expected to test its immediate resistance at $0.57 and its previous high of $0.605. Unless $0.605 is taken out it is most likely to enter stage 3 of the cycle (Distribution stage and prices can be volatile).--(11/03)
After the reading, It did tested $0.57 and heading towards $0.605. A break above this level with volume it is entering uncharted territory with an immediate target of $0.65 and beyond. (07/04)
15th MAY
After the reading it is still at stage 2 of the cycle and very Bullish. It did break above $0.605 and set an all time high of $0.705. It went through a healthy consolidation and found a new bottom at $0.58. It is forming Flag Pole Pattern with Bullish Flag developing. A break above $0.655( as on today reading) signal breakout from the Flag and should retest its previous high of $0.705 and beyond.Any further weakness should find support at $0.615/$0.60 and very strong support at $0.58. Short term traders may want to set Stop Loss if $0.565 is violated.
Matrixcool, agreed with you. Me don't have TA knowledge purely fundamental. Just pick up the TA term from you and learn from net bit by bit. However very difficult for me as just beginner.
cherry tomato—Don”t worry we are always here to help traders like you in TA.We encourage traders to learn TA because it is very useful in your future trading, especially on entry and exit prices. Take your time to learn, but if you have any query on TA just post it in our thread we promise to do our best to help. We will launch a new thread next week for TA platform as my thread will be slowly phased out by month end.
Matrixcool ready thanks for you guidance. If depend on fundamental will have to hold on for long long time. Furthermore don't not know when the buy signal are on.
cherry tomato - you are absolutely right. Try mixing TA+FA. FA helps you identify good companies and TA helps you to time your entry and exit. I used to trade with FA alone and ended up holding for a long time and with limited funds, capital is tied up. I suppose we are quite fortunate that Matrix unselfishly started this thread.
Hi newbie here.. which software are u guys using??? I am currently on chart nexus and to be honest I am only gettting familiar with MACD, SMA, RSI ... Would love to use fibonacci, candles, support/ resis and etc... any direction on where i should look??? (chartnexus lacks such features) many thanks in advance...
ChunJui Lee - most of us, including myself, use ChartNexus. Unless you are looking for a software that gives you alerts, in which case you will need to buy and subscribe to softwares like Meta Stock (used by Matrix) and others, otherwise, ChartNexus suffices. As you know, with ChartNexus, the user need to work out for themselves the support & resistance but it does have features for fibonacci work, setting changes for indicators and stuff like that. Don't know what TA level you are at, but it would help if you have a good TA book to start with or to reference on.
I am using Cimb's TCPRO and esignal. Both offer live chart. If you have more than 1 screen, you can set one screen display chart and the other display top volume / gainer / favourite list, and as you scroll down the list of stocks the chart changes as well.
16/05/2014 1) 3A—Break below $0.90 with a fallen window so expect more downward movement towards support of $0.88/$0.875. It is expected to fill the gap at $0.91/$0.905 as the breakdown is done with a very small volume or what we traders refer to Common GGap, which means there is no interest in this stock and it is irrelevant to any forecast of the stock.I may clear on any rebound to release my capital.
2) HEVEA—Trapped inside sideways trading as suggested. Showing some strength as downward momentum has slowed down,expects more rebound soon, a break above $1.41 signal BUY and to immediate resistance at $1.45/$1.50
3) MINHO—Break above my TP2 of $1.26 today, it is expected to test my TP3 of $1.30/$1.32. I am raising my Trailing Stop more aggressively to protect my profits, my new Trailing Stop(2) is at $1.23 now.
4) MUDA—show some weakness today, downward momentum has increased, may test its immediate support of $1.88/$1.84. I collected more at $1.89 today.
5) WASEONG—Flag Pole pattern with Bullish Pennant formation, a break above $2.07 signal Breakout and I may scale in more shares.
6) WCT—It is forming the Ascending Triangle and a break above $2.29 confirm the breakout and has Bullish implication. The volume has built up and volatility is extremely low, and WCT is expected to break $2.29 to my TP1 of $2.37/$2.40 & beyond.
Happy Trading and Good Night..
P/s:
Lam2738—I did the chart reading for L&G earlier, L&G—Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish. After hitting a high of $0.545 it is under consolidation at the moment (That is why it is stagnant).It may have found the new bottom at $0.465, a break above $0.525 will take it to its strong resistance at $0.545. If break will get to its next target of $0.575 and into uncharted territory. Any further weakness should find support at $0.485/$0.465. Exit if $0.425 is violated. nicholasnwh90 (14/04) After the reading, L&G did hit my target of $0.575 on 17/04 and into uncharted territory. Today it sets a new high of $0.61 and moving towards its next target of at $0.625 and $0.655. Any weakness should find immediate support at $0.575 (Resistance turns support). MinMin (24/04) 15th May As mentioned earlier, stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish, as suggested it did moved to my target of $0.625 on 28/04 but formed an Evening Star the same day which imply consolidation and it did. It consolidated and may have found a new bottom at $0.54 on 05/05. It is rebounding from this new low and testing its immediate resistance at $0.585. A break above $0.585 will take it to next resistance at $0.60 and the previous high of $0.625 and beyond.Immediate support adjusts to $0.55/$0.54, for short term traders please Exit if $0.54 is violated with volume.
John Wong
PANTECH—I cleared my PANTECH after spotting it formed the Last Engulfing Bull on 25/04, I cleared to release my capital. Since then it has consolidated downward to a new low of $0.96. With today close with a Bullish Candle at $0.985 more rebound can be expected from Pantech in the near term. It is expected to test its immediate resistance at $0.995/$1.00 ( Most likely to trade from $0.96 to $1.00 during this consolidation). If break may try $1.02 and its previous high. Immediate support adjusts to $0.96 and strong support at $0.95. Short term traders exit if $0.94 is violated.
wtclau - very sorry you came to the wrong person to ask. I do not have a truly TA book. I only have 1 book by Adam Khoo (Winning the game of stocks) which talks about investing in a nutshell and touches on FA and TA but not in detail. Those days, I did not manage to find a good TA book and the only one that I do have was lousy. So, I gave up finding and picked up my TA knowledge from online which involved hours and hours of searching,reading and filtering. I believe having a good TA book is the right way to learn and my way may not be the right way.
Matrix would be a good person to advise you on this.
If others have any good TA book, would appreciate if you could share it with wtclau and us.
p/s: no need to address me as Mr. We are all equal here.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!