HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
cbyeoh—It was a pleasure to meet with you and others, hopefully TCB will have more traders to participate in TA and share stocks they are trading.
kheng, winwinborn, choolooi, thanks for the kind words. Choolooi ,TCB needs to thank you for coming out such a good name for our new thread.
etal—Welcome to our thread and thanks for highlighting the book. Do you like to share your TA in our thread ? Hope you can help out some chart analysis so that we could learn together. Yea, TCB will arrange more get together in the future, hopefully you can join us next time.
winwinborn—I think you know I sold mine at a 8% loss when hit my Stop Loss on Borneo oil. For mid term traders please observe the Stop Loss level of $0.58, if breached below it will start stage 4 of the cycle and to be avoided at all cost. Now it is still on stage 3 of the cycle and price can be volatile. The big drop on 09/05 with a fallen window that shaken me out apparently is due to some share restructuring and private placement. The fallen Gap resistance at $0.635/$0.64 will act as an immediate resistance on any technical rebound. I may reenter if $0.58 is not violated.
cherry tomato—TCB will be on by next week, we are still arranging it.
Mc_Wei—welcome to our thread. We are very happy to hear that you are a TA too, please share your TA knowledge so that we could learn together. Ya, PRTASCO is out of its bullish Flag and today hit me TP1 of $2.00/$2.04.
Happy Trading..
P/S: a) BARAKAH hit my Trailing Stop at $1.68 which I cleared everything to lock in 4% profits. b) MINHO hit my TP2 of $1.23/$1.26 which I clear another 20% of my stock at $1.25 to lock in 19% profits. (Total sold 70% so far).
Hi Matrix, Yes, im noticed of it. Im still have holding power for bornoil, I planning to lock profit first then reenter again when there is opportunity.
Thanks for your analysis.
winwinborn—I think you know I sold mine at a 8% loss when hit my Stop Loss on Borneo oil. For mid term traders please observe the Stop Loss level of $0.58, if breached below it will start stage 4 of the cycle and to be avoided at all cost. Now it is still on stage 3 of the cycle and price can be volatile. The big drop on 09/05 with a fallen window that shaken me out apparently is due to some share restructuring and private placement. The fallen Gap resistance at $0.635/$0.64 will act as an immediate resistance on any technical rebound. I may reenter if $0.58 is not violated.
# Good afternoon matrix, mind to share ur views - GPA and Ocncash #
GPA—Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish.Breakout from the Round Bottom formation at $0.115 on the weekly chart that carry an estimated target of $0.16./$0.165. Any weakness should find immediate support at $0.135/$0.125 with strong support is at $0.115. Congratulation, you are on a winner we would encourage you to set a Trailing Stop to protect your profits in case of a Big Pull Back.
OCNCASH—After hitting a high of $0.335 on 04/04 the consolidation looks over at the new low of $0.24. Two Rising windows (Gap up) after establishing its new base is bullish in nature. On 08/05 when it gap up the second time with a big gap invites traders to sell and lock in profits on the anticipation that the gap will be filled which it did on the last 2 days. Any weakness should find immediate support at $0.28/ and very strong first gap support at $0.265/$0.26, offer opportunity to collect for future play.Exit if $0.22 is violated.
Mc_Wei > # Thanks Matrix. This is a good platform where all TA people speak same jargon language. Good that you also hold MINHO. I bought MINHO last week, cost at 1.18. I see cup handle pattern. I am looking at 1.40. #
MC Wei, Ya, you are spot on. The final target depends how one draws the Cup and Handle, I would put the next target at $1.32 if we consider the handle breakout at $1.13. You have drawn the handle breakout at $1.21 (by joining high of $1.13, $1.15) giving you your target of near $1.40. But we must remember target is only a guide and the chart can never tell us how long it will take to get there or actually get there.
We are happy to know another TA is among us and we hope you can help out some of the charts reading here, especially those traders that need chart analysis of their stocks.
Mc_Wei—You are right on on MINHO pattern and breakout. On the weekly chart it gives you even a higher target of more than $1.60+. If you follow my thread you know I am a short term trader and I do not hold stocks for a long time. In my trading I normally work out the short term target from the daily chart. I only use the weekly chart to confirm its medium term trend, so we can accumulate during consolidation knowing its under strength is strong for longer term.
MUDA—I have started to collect MUDA after disposing BARAKAH at $1.68 today. Look good to retest its previous high of $2.00 and beyond. It has found a new bottom at $1.78.
Matrix, I agree with you on MUDA, set to resume its momentum.
By the way, how do you handle your money management? Let's say if you have RM100k, how much would you allocate per trade? And in general how much % profit would you target for? Do you set a time-stop if the stock doesn't move like after a month or so?
Mc_Wei , I am short term trader so i do not hold stocks for a long time. If a stock i pick is doing sideways trading and i will clear it to invest into other moving stocks.
I lock in profits when opportunity arises, like today Barakah i cleared at about 5% but Minho i cleared at about 20% profits. Early this month I have cleared Pantech with no profits, but to release my capital to buy in other stocks.
I do not set any time frame, but my average period can be from 1 day to 8 weeks the most.
wtclau, I am using Metastock. You can use any charts, but I personally like candlesticks. The best way to learn is to buy some reference books and get familiar with the chart pattern, Support and Resistance etc..
Or you can share your reading of your stock in our thread and we will look at it together and guide you from there..
I truly encourage traders to learn TA as it gives a good guide of the movement of the stocks..
Morning Matrixcool, regarding to the trailing stop method, would you mind to share with me what is the ideal % of profit locking if the price drop from the highest point and the cut loss point. Thank you :)
1) 3A-- it rebounded further and break above $0.925. The upward momentum has increased and it is expected to test the strong resistance at $0.945. If break $0.945 it is to test my TP1 of $0.97. Immediate support adjusts to $0.905 with strong support at $0.88/$0.875. 2) BREM—The downward momentum has slowed down, more rebound can be expected to $2.10/$2.12. 3) PRTASCO—As suggested it breakout from its Bullish Flag pattern and hit my TP1 of $2.00/$2.04 today. But due to heavy profit taking activity, it formed an inverted hammer on top expects some consolidation in the near term.A break below $1.90 spell trouble, but most likely to trade between $1.90 to $1.99.
BARAKAH—Hit my Trailing Stop at $1.68 which I cleared the remaining 50% shares to lock in 4.3% profits.
MINHO—Hit my TP2 of$1.23/ $1.26 today, which I cleared another 20% share at $1.25 to lock in 19% profits. A break above $1.26 will take it next target TP3 of $1.30/$1.32. Any weakness will find immediate support at $1.17/$1.15. MINHO (30%)—Trailing Stop at $1.14
I started to collect MUDA at around $1.92/$1.93 today after clearing BARAKAH and some MINHO..It is expected to retest its previous high of $2.00 and if break with volume (Signal BUY and I may scale in) will move to next target $2.10 and TP2 of $2.20/$2.24.
novice8-- ORNA—Still on my watch list it is still under consolidation. May have found a temporary bottom at $1.13 ,will give a first signal if break above $1.20 to the previous high of $1.30 and beyond. Bravo--# Morning Matrixcool, regarding to the trailing stop method, would you mind to share with me what is the ideal % of profit locking if the price drop from the highest point and the cut loss point. Thank you :)# Very valid questions on Trailing Stop.
If you follow our thread we have always encouraged traders to cultivate profit taking habits and set a Trailing Stop when you are on a winning trade.
Trailing Stop—The reason you are at this stage is because your stock moves according to what you anticipated. Ok lets use MINHO as an example: The reason I set the trailing Stop at $1.14 because it is the next important support if $1.20 is breached. My entry cost is @ $1.05 so if it hit $1.14 I will lock in my profits plus protecting my capital. That says MINHO move above $1.26 towards $1.30/$1.32(next Target), I will raise this time my Trailing Stop to $1.19 ( $1.20 will be the next support if $1.26 is breached) and so on.. The reason we encourage Trailing Stop is to prevent a Big Pull back and it will take a longer time to recover and our capital being tied up. For short term trading I am happy with returns of 5% to 20%, When the counter hit a new high I will look at the nearest support from that high and set my Trailing Stop 1-2 pips below that level to protect my profits. (Please note Trailing Stop is not to be compromised when hit with volume you must be out).
wtclau > thanks. I am actually going for a short holiday today, will be back tomorrow.see you all tomorrow..
Bearish after the series of dojis from 18/4 to 22/4 culminated with a gravestone doji on 23/4, a significant bearish reversal indication. It is now in a correction phase. Has broken through its major support at 0.42 and is now testing its next support level at 0.38, failing which will see it trend down to the next support level at 0.35.
Immediate resistance is 0.42. 2nd resistance level is at 0.45/0.455.
FA wise, the company has a healthy set of financials with annual dividend payouts. Can't pinpoint to you the reason for the drop but the price did hit an all time high of 0.48 and it is normal for profit taking to set in as well as some panic selling when its price movements slid down as it did. Possibly, the warrant conversions to ordinary shares in 2012 may have contributed to some extent due to the enlarged shareholding base.
We will not know the exact reasons but we can trade based on its technical signals.
Karyon - forgot to add this. The cost of the warrant conversion I believe could have been around 0.31 (correct me if I am wrong) plus minus a few sens. So, any price range higher then this, the holders might want to lock in profits first when it trends down. This could be one of the factors but this is just my guess.
Am watching Prlexus volume to build up before making an entry. A cup and handle pattern has formed. A bullish divergence can be seen in price accumulation/distribution with despite share price decreasing.Profitman pls comment. Tks
yoda88 - yes, there is a divergence in the Price/AccDist. Seems to be forming a support base at 1.50. Need to overcome the strong resistance level at 1.58. Riding on the bullish Elliot wave 3.
Luxchem: Bullish. Found strong support at 1.42. It issued a buy signal on 12/5 when it took out its major resistance at 1.48 with volume. For the bullish trend to remain valid, it needs to stay above 1.48 and it will be scaling new highs if the trend persist. Immediate support = 1.42. TP1 = 1.55 ; TP2 = 1.63.
Broke out from its downtrend line on 7/1 to commence a bullish phase. Currently consolidating between 1.55 and 1.59. It did form a bullish marubozu on 9/5 to "weakly" signal a potential bullish reversal as it was formed on lower volumes than the prior day's bearish marubozu.
A break of its immediate resistance at 1.59, will see it re-test the major resistance level at 1.67/1.68. Immediate support is at 1.55 while support 2 is at 1.52.
Bro Profitman! May I ask your advise on Benalec pls? I got it a while ago and not sure should I take advantage to dispose to release my capitals a bit? Tq!!!
Matrix did the following analysis on 8/5 for Joyous:
As stated in my earlier post and chart reading for KTB, it is at the bullish stage 2 cycle. Any consolidation should find immediate support at $0.255, if fail to hold next Gap support is at $0.24/$0.235. For KTB to scale higher to continue its stage 2 upward movement, it must break above $0.32 with volume. KTB has a very important support at $0.205 ( IF it is tested) and it is also a neck line support of a possible “Double Top” formation which has Bearish implication. ( Try to draw a horizontal Line at $0.205 and you can see double tops at $0.32 and $0.31. What does it mean ? It meant KTB actually enter stage 3 of the cycle after hitting high of $0.32 and if that support of $0.205 is broken it begins stage 4 of the cycle which is to be avoided at all cost.
Update analysis: It is now testing the gap support at 0.24/0.235 which it did today when it touched 0.24 and closed at 0.245.
Usually, technical readings for warrants are not very meaningful because its movements are inter-dependent on its mother share. Warrants may move ahead of its mother share in anticipation of the latter going up or down.
So, I usually look to the mother share for guidance on the warrant. In this case, PJDev is facing resistance to clear 1.58. Major resistance is at 1.63. It needs to take out these 2 resistance in turn to scale higher. If it does, then the warrant would follow suit. If not, they could be trading range bound.
Successfully broke out from its rectangle trading range when it cleared the 0.95 resistance convincingly on 12/5 and today it broke out with volume. The next 2 levels of resistance are 1.14 and 1.19 respectively.
Can't advise you to hold or sell as you will have to assess your risk reward ratio. There are many options bearing in mind that the counter have just started on its bullish trend. Whether you bought it higher or lower than the current trading price, do adjust your trailing stop price whether to protect capital or profits.
I've seen your past posts on L&G on 14/4 & 24/4. What's your view on L&G's current level? It just broke 0.575 resistance today. Any comment would be appreciated.
Shooting star formed on 28/4 and the price drop since then. On 06/05, the bullish harami formed and implied that the bullish trend is coming. Yeah It has just break through 0.575 resistance but the resistance is not strong enough. It need to break through 0.625 with volume to test 0.655. The new bottom is formed at 0.54 and strong support at 0.51.
1)3A—Showed some weakness today may test immediate support of $0.905 with strong support at $0.88/$0.875.The upward momentum is intact to try $0.945 and my TP1 of $0.97, but a breach below $0.90 may see more consolidation.
2)MINHO---If break $1.26 it is expected to test my next Target of $1.30/$1.32.
3)PRTASCO—Trade between $1.90 to $1.99, expects more upward movement if break and stay above $2.00
4)WASEONG—Expects to re test $2.10 and if break may try next Resistance at $2.18.
5)WCT—The upward momentum has increased,It is expected to retest of $2.30 if break and stay above it will be testing my TP1 of $2.37/$2.40 soon.
I am still collecting MUDA for future Play around $1.88 to $1.92. May has found the new bottom $1.78.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!