Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-15 22:48 | Report Abuse

What are the Risks of Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Of course, nothing in this life is guaranteed, and that includes real estate investment trusts.

REITs are more than just a pile of properties, they are active businesses, and subject to business risks. It's a testimony to the industry, however, that over the years only a handful have gotten into deep financial trouble.

According to Ralph L. Block in Investing in REITs, those real estate trusts that have gotten into trouble have done so primarily due to:
- excessive debt leverage,
- poor allocation of capital resources, and
- questionable transactions with directors or major stockholders.

That's for individual REITs.

As an industry, their businesses are subject to two particular risks no matter how well managed they are (though good management can succeed despite these dangers).

1. Overbuilding or excess capacity, or overdevelopment.
2. High interest rates

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-15 23:00 | Report Abuse

Risks

We believe the biggest risk to investing in REITs today is the impact from an economic recession. As a result of the recession, rents and occupancy levels in commercial real estate fall, resulting in a decline in property values.

In addition, if interest rates rise and REIT dividend yields move back toward their historical averages, REIT share prices could also decline.

Other risks to investing in REITs include a considerable increase in the amount of new construction (which would reverse the favourable demand-supply characteristics of the current market) and the potential for large common stock issuances.

We note that because of their high payout requirement, REITs generally need to raise capital in order to finance their growth plans. These capital raises can impact the common share price of the REIT.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-15 23:02 | Report Abuse

Basically, I avoid REITS in general. The main reason is its limited upside compared to good quality growth stocks.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-16 09:29 | Report Abuse

Investing in reits is consider a hedge against inflation while earning a reasonable income, but u must not be greedy on yield mah!

Buy IGBretail reit (Midvalley) or sunwayreit as distribution yield consider about 4% pa loh!

But avoid pavilion reits....bcos too many of this 'pavillion reits' coming out, that will dilute its earning capacity loh!

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

Dutch Lady

Year Price range (LPr - HPr)
2002 3.85 - 8.35
2007 10.00 - 13.30
2012 23.40 - 37.80
2017 54.00 - 62.00
2022 30.00 - 34.60
2023 25.80 - 30.30

Year Dividends (sens)
2002 5.8
2003 12.8
2004 56
2005 63.2
2006 63.2
2007 63.2
2008 42.1
2009 65.6
2010 72.5
2011 72.5
2012 260
2013 260
2014 220
2015 220
2016 220
2017 280
2018 200
2019 100
2020 80
2021 50
2022 50

Total Dividends paid out from 2002 to 2022 = 2456.9 sen = RM 24.569

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:15 | Report Abuse

TSH Resources

Year Price range (LPr - HPr) adjusted for capital changes RM
2002 0.16 - 0.26
2007 0.51 - 1.10
2012 1.25 - 1.91
2017 1.56 - 1.94
2022 0.90 - 1.89
2023 0.99 - 1.15


Year Dividends per Share (sens)
2002 0.27
2003 0.53
2004 0.53
2005 1.67
2006 1.67
2007 1.67
2008 2.20
2009 1.67
2010 1.67
2011 2.00
2012 2.33
2013 1.67
2014 2.33
2015 2.50
2016 2.00
2017 2.00
2018 2.00
2019 1.00
2020 1.00
2021 1.50
2022 11.00

Total Dividends per share paid out from 2002 to 2022 = 43.21 sen

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:52 | Report Abuse

Differences between Value Investors

The distinction between price and value is the sole requisite principle of value investing. It’s the only must. Beyond that, there are valid differences in approach. I see eight.


Summary

Dimensions on which bona fide value investors can differ include:

1. Asset class

2. Holding period

3. Activism

4. Diversification

5. Quality

6. Leverage

7. Complexity

8. Shorting

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:56 | Report Abuse

1. First is asset class.
Listed equities return best over time, as addressed. But there are practitioners able to squeeze performance out of other sorts of holdings. Bonds work for some, real estate works for others. They’re tougher rows to hoe, but some hoe them well.

2. A second valid difference is holding period.
Some value investors plan to hold what they buy for just months. Others hope to hold indefinitely. Different timelines occasion different priorities. For example, short-term holders consider catalysts. A catalyst is a reason that a price could soar from the depressed level that helped to make a security attractive. Unexpectedly good quarterly results could be a catalyst, as could the dismissal of an unpopular executive.

Catalysts are less interesting to long-term investors. They’re too near-term a concern. Never intending to sell, I don’t give them a thought.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:56 | Report Abuse

3. A third valid difference is activism.
Activist investors agitate for change in the companies that they own. They might be viewed as their own catalysts. The alternative is staying uninvolved. It’s the choice of most investors, both good and bad. I call it inactivism, since passive implies index fund investing.

Activism requires an extraordinary level of gravitas and tenacity. People who are feared and skilled in this specialty are the ones that achieve the best results. Activism is not something in which one fruitfully dabbles.


4. Fourth is diversification.
Some value investors have diversified portfolios, with perhaps 50 or more names. Others prefer concentration, with fewer than 10.

These thresholds depend somewhat on the amount of money managed. A $50,000 portfolio spread out among a dozen different stocks might be considered diversified, while a $10 billion fund invested in a dozen names might seem concentrated.

Diversification tends to decrease volatility, should that be a goal. But, the more diversified a portfolio is, the harder it is to beat a relevant index.

One way to appreciate this is through the law of large numbers. It’s a principle from probability. It says that the more times an experiment is run, the closer the average result will be to the expected result. In investing, the expected result is the index’s return. So the more names in the portfolio—each name being an experiment, in the parlance of the law—the closer the portfolio’s return will
be to that of the index.

Some stripes of value investing force one into a diversified portfolio. Small cap investing can, since there aren’t that many shares traded of each company. They’re small. So a small-cap investor that adds $100,000 to assets under management might have to find a new name because the ones already owned don’t have enough shares available to buy.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:57 | Report Abuse

5. A fifth valid difference is quality.
Our approach has been to focus on how good a business is in an absolute sense, before considering price. We labor over historic performance metrics, strategic positioning, and shareholder-friendliness. We look for quality.

But an equally convinced group focuses on buying companies that are inexpensive relative to how good they are. To them garbage is fine, as long as it’s cheap garbage. Some in this group get exceptional results.

My focus on company quality reflects three of my other preferences: inactivism, concentration, and a long holding period. What I buy has to be good because I’m not going to fix it, I’ve only got a few others like it, and it’s mine forever.

These preferences aren’t about great foresight or morality. They’re about taxes. Unrealized appreciation isn’t taxed in the United States, so everything else being equal, holding is advantageous. I draw a straight line from tax policy to investment policy.


6. Sixth is leverage.
Leverage is debt. What is true for operating companies is true for investors: debt amplifies results. When an investor buys on margin, results that would otherwise be good become exceptional, and results that would otherwise be bad become catastrophic. The potential of the latter keeps many value investors away from debt. But not all.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:57 | Report Abuse

7. Seventh is complexity.
Some value investors prefer simple setups. They like common stock in straightforward companies. I do, as the model makes clear. But others like it complicated. They may seek convertible bonds that become equity only under hard-to-forecast circumstances. They may prefer stock in development-stage pharmaceutical companies undergoing clinical trials, or in technology companies whose fortunes are dependent on the outcome of pioneering research.

They adore these complications not because they’re falling prey to the cleverness bias. They adore them because it gives them less buy-side competition. Other investors will simply abstain from trying to sort out convoluted situations. This can keep prices lower than they would be otherwise.


8. Eighth is shorting.
Shorting is a way to bet on a stock price’s decline. It involves selling stock without actually owning it, by renting it from someone who does, with the goal of profiting when the price falls.

Shorting is theoretically attractive. It promises a way to benefit from a finding that a security is overpriced. But it’s thorny to implement. Shares to rent can be hard to find, fees can be high, and a short squeeze can cause a price meant to plunge to actually soar.

Despite these complications, some value investors do short. But many do so as agents, not as principals. That’s because it increases their compensation. Shorting is a hallmark of a complicated fund. It’s the kind of stunt that managers attempt in order to justify compensation schemes of 2 percent plus 20 percent. It’s a ticket out of the land of 1 percent.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-16 11:58 | Report Abuse

Dicey Strategies: Can work and Doesn't work sometimes

Of the eight dimensions on which value investors can differ, two invite suspicion.

1. Shorting is one.
It just doesn’t work that well. I know of no principals that both rely on shorting and outperform over the long term.

2. Leverage is the other.
While debt can be milked for bonus returns much of the time, one big margin call can be enough to foul years of solid results.



I nonetheless include shorting and leverage on the list to allow for the possibility that they could be made to work under some circumstances.

But they’re dicey.
They’re back doors out of the kingdom of value investing and into a land of some other, less practical strategy.
Some would say that this invalidates them as intelligent tactics.
To those with long-term perspectives, something that doesn’t work sometimes can ultimately be indistinguishable from something that doesn’t work at all.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-17 08:25 | Report Abuse

PHILIP FISHER'S WISE WORDS
"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-17 10:34 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by Mikecyc > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Haha finally see the Speaker Callvin photo is uploaded… the old man whom bullied me as a Newbie on 2019 . Uncles n Aunties May ask you the following questions loh :

1) posted in Netx on 2020 .. asking ppl to sell other shares to buy Netx … said had sold 8 houses out of 20 houses to buy … repeatedly saying Win Win Win with cost 1 sen .. but posted on 2022 in Tsh is Lost in Netx !!! What is this investing tactic ???

2) Promoted Tsh up to Peak Range RM 1.80 … then on Sliding down , asked followers to Averaging down on every 10 sen down !!! What is this Investing tactic ???

3) Promoted Scomies from 7 sen to 12 sen on 2019 … then posted another Blog promoting Scomies from 12 sen to TP 30 sen … but Scomies is Sliding down from 12.5 sen … just Pump n Dump ..

Ppl questioning you .. replied is did not Promote at 12 sen even shown your blog … then said is small matter even in PN17 as Mother will pay back the Loan .. how is Scomi and Scomies today ? Scomi is delisted… Scomies Price is worst than delisted price ( Current Price divided by 5 ) !!! What is this Investing Tactics ??? Hahahaha
>>>>


Hmmmm!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-17 11:58 | Report Abuse

Konmike is a shameless & useless Penipu loh!

Do not trust this type of people loh!

Avoid him loh!

Very toxic mah!

True mah!

Posted by stockraider > 16 hours ago | Report Abuse

Ha....ha...ha,,,,!

Zelan is one of the worse soorhai stock pick by konmike loh!
Now zelan is 3 sen, worse than netx & sapnrg loh!

As usual as a kon man.....this konmike try to divert loh....!
Quoting MMC.....which nothing relevant to his soorhaaii zelan pick loh!

stockraider

Zelan is one of the soorhaiii....konmike best stock picked ...now share price only 3 sen....even lesser than sapnrg n netx loh!.

The moral of the story is konmike trying to avoid responsibity loh!

Do not trust konmike loh!

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-18 09:17 | Report Abuse

If you have any investing questions or issues, please share in this thread. Hopefully, those in this forum can try to offer some suggestions or answers.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 12:05 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/hti/advice

Very good advice.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 22:08 | Report Abuse

My first post in my blog on investing on 1.8.2008. Soon, I can look back at 15 years of blogging and sharing.
I noted too that many bloggers whom I have linked my site with have stopped blogging.
https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 22:09 | Report Abuse

My first post in my blog on investing on 1.8.2008. Soon, I can look back at 15 years of blogging and sharing.
I noted too that many bloggers whom I have linked my site with have stopped blogging.
ht tps://my investingnotes.blog spot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 22:10 | Report Abuse

FRIDAY, 1 AUGUST 2008
Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)
Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.


_______________


For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B
(Portfolio A: Cash, FDs, Bonds Portfolio B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)

For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B & C
(Portfolio C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)

For SPECULATORS: Portfolio D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 22:13 | Report Abuse

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-19 22:21 | Report Abuse

Profits of plantation companies are affected by crude palm oil (commodity) prices which are heavily influenced by many external factors:

- seasonal fluctuation on palm oil production,
- weather conditions
- availability of supply of other major vegetable oils e.g. soya
- labour supply in oil palm plantations' FFB harvesting and unloading activities.
- strength of the ringgit
- increase in the oil palm productive areas
- tariffs for palm oil products

CPO prices had experienced a decline beginning the third quarter of 2022 due to the

- high CPO production season,
- rising palm oil stocks and
- declining soybean oil prices.
Palm oil industry saw higher production, exports and revenue in 2022

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects the price of crude palm oil (CPO) to average at RM5,100 a tonne in 2022, which is 15.7% higher compared to RM4,407 a tonne in 2021.

The government agency also foresees the price of CPO to stabilise at an average of RM3,800 a tonne in 2023 in anticipation of

- higher palm oil production,
- improved weather conditions in the second half of 2023 and
- higher availability of supply of other major vegetable oils.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-21 18:26 | Report Abuse

Plantation business is cyclical mah!
U buy when commodities prices is affected & coming down which affected the share price loh!
Not chasing when everything up & bouyant mah!

Lu tau boh ??

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-05-22 00:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-05-22 00:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-22 06:54 | Report Abuse

Ya loh sooorhaiii Kon Mike cause alot of people to lose monies on zelan, now only 3 sen loh!

Do not trust this fellow loh!

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-05-22 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-22 22:54 | Report Abuse

stockraider was caught out on two occasions in past for not telling the truth. That reflects a lot on his integrity.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-25 10:44 | Report Abuse

The Malaysian stock market benefits from a diverse pool of investors, underscored by sturdy support from local institutional and retail investors.

1. Domestic institutions remained net sellers in 2022, to the tune of RM6.53 billion (2021: RM9.1 billion).

2. Meanwhile, local retail investors infused RM2.31 billion of net funds into the equity market, which paled in comparison to the previous year’s RM12.2 billion.

3. Interestingly, foreign investors pumped in RM4.40 billion net (2021: RM3.15 billion) after four consecutive years as net sellers.

Against this backdrop, the participation rate of retail investors declined to an average of 25.7% in terms of transaction value, relative to 34.6% in 2021. Nonetheless, this is still higher than the five-year pre-pandemic average of 18.8%

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-25 10:55 | Report Abuse

In 2022, the Main Market hosted the listing of five companies while the ACE Market welcomed 25 and the LEAP Market contributed another five – bringing the total to 35 IPOS for the year. Together, these newly listed entities raised RM3.49 billion.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-25 10:57 | Report Abuse

Profile of Malaysian Equity Market

Bursa Malaysia has the distinction of being among the biggest bourses in ASEAN with well over 900 listed companies. Investors can choose from a variety of listed products, including
- equities,
- derivatives,
- exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
- real estate investment trusts (REITs), and
- exchange traded bonds and sukuk (ETBS).

Notably, 789 (81.2%) of the 972 listed entities on the local bourse were Shariah-compliant securities as at end-December 2022. These accounted for RM1.139 trillion or 65.6% of Bursa Malaysia’s overall market capitalisation as at the same date.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-25 11:01 | Report Abuse

Despite the tumultuous global markets, a total of RM26.0 billion was raised from the Malaysian equity market in 2022.

- Of this amount, RM3.5 billion originated from the primary market, i.e., via 35 initial public offering (IPOs).

- The other RM22.6 billion stemmed from secondary fundraising.

The sturdier performance in 2022 was driven by a 52% y-o-y surge in IPOs and a 58% spike in secondary issuances.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-25 11:02 | Report Abuse

The fortunes of a country’s equity or stock market are closely aligned with its economic well-being, and Malaysia is no exception.

Similar to its global peers, Bursa Malaysia been enduring much turbulence in the last few years.

Buffeted by strong external and internal headwinds, the market capitalisation of the local bourse had moderated further to RM1.74 trillion as at end-2022 (end-2021: RM1.79 trillion).

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-26 13:13 | Report Abuse

UMW (ProspectP

The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) in its latest World Economic Outlook report forecasted global economic growth to decline from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 stemming from the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and growing geo-economic fragmentation.

Nevertheless, according to the IMF, countries in Asia could offset some of the effects of global headwinds by benefiting from the growth in China and India and has forecasted the Asia-Pacific region to expand by 4.6% in 2023 from 2.8% in 2022.

On the domestic front, Bank Negara Malaysia (“BNM”) had raised the overnight policy rate to 3% on 3 May 2023 citing that economic activities are back to pre-pandemic levels. The gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth forecast is still expected to be between 4% and 5% this year supported by better-than-expected labour market conditions, stronger pick-up in tourism activities, as well as the implementation of projects including those from the recently re-tabled Budget 2023. The downside risks emanate primarily from external factors mentioned above.

Posted by enigmatic [bamboo investing style] > 2023-05-26 23:39 | Report Abuse

I'm starting to see value emerging in consumer stocks, especially beaten down ones with rather good cashflow. What do you think, 3iii?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-28 09:09 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by enigmatic [bamboo investing style] > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

I'm starting to see value emerging in consumer stocks, especially beaten down ones with rather good cashflow. What do you think, 3iii?
>>>

Good morning. Please share your idea and the company you are looking at. We can explore these together.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-05-28 10:09 | Report Abuse

The stock market in the long run behaves like a weighing machine.
The stock market in the short run behaves like a voting machine (a popularity contest).

Let me review the story of Netx from 2019 to 2021. calvintaneng of Singapore fame, the incessant promoter, identified Netx as his next stock to hype. He wrote and he puffed on this counter. He gave a story of his conversation with Penelope. (Was this important or material?) He told everyone of the NFC and based on his innate ability to spot an opportunity, he KNEW Netx was the counter that will benefit from NFC. The important point, he "KNEW" (basically, he guessed / or gambled, more rightly the case in hindsight.) As a good promoter, he must let everyone know that he sold 8 houses to invest into his latest loving stock. This was most important for a promoter, as it showed conviction and money in the game. Seriously, did he show this to anyone? Talk is so cheap indeed. For a period of time, calvintaneng was "popular". The piper sang a lovely song and Netx was a stock in a popularity contest. For a while, it looked beautiful to those BLINDED by the hype of calvintaneng. Calvintaneng even went overboard attacking so many who posted honestly and sincerely their thoughts on this company's fundamentals and businesses, including the behaviour of its managers. Calvintaneng proudly shot back, so and so has tunnel vision. :-)

Well, in investing, always look and study the risks first, and having taken care of these, the upside of the stock takes care of itself. In the short run, calvintaneng was able through his determination and noise to get a lot of suckers into his game. It was a popular contest / a beauty contest, and many voters turned up. Alas, in the long run, the detractors of Netx and those who cautioned on calvintaneng's over enthusiasm ( I call this his manic behaviour) were actually vindicated. Everything that I posted in Netx turned out to be very truthful indeed. Its quality of its businesses, its management, its behaviour in raising funds, and many others were analysed and questioned; and surprisingly or not surprisingly, these turned out to be the truth compared to the hypes of calvintaneng.

Happy investing, folks. There are a lot of lessons to learn from the story of Netx.

Posted by enigmatic [bamboo investing style] > 2023-06-02 23:01 | Report Abuse

The stocks in your portfolio are evergreen. Those are the ones that I'm looking at. Companies that withstood the test of time and survived recessions.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:41 | Report Abuse

Stocks produced an average return of 10.70% during the period 1926-2000. That's a historical observation (anomaly?) and investors should absolutely not anchor on it when they think about future returns.

That specific period was atypical in a way that can be dangerously misleading if you don't look beyond the "headline" number. Stocks started out at depressed multiples (a price-to-trailing-earnings multiple of 10.2 for the S&P Composite Index) and finished at inflated ones (26.0 for the S&P 500 Index).

All told, the expansion in the multiple's girth alone fattened stocks' average return by a full 1.25 percentage points annually. Unless you have reason to believe that rising valuations will make the same contribution over your investing horizon, expecting the same average return going forward is wrongheaded.


*A more realistic landmark*

A reasonable historical benchmark with which to begin thinking about future returns is 6% to 7% after inflation. That range is consistent with the long-run stock return estimates in the 2007 edition of Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run.

Incidentally, if you don't think a 1.25 percentage point difference is even worth trifling over, consider the end value of a dollar invested at 6.5% over a 30-year period: $6.61. At 7.75%, you'll have $9.38. If you were counting on the higher return and earned the lower one instead, you're now facing a 30% shortfall.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:43 | Report Abuse

4 practical recommendations for long-term investors

1. Time horizon is not the only relevant variable in figuring out your allocation between stocks and bonds (and other asset classes). Your risk tolerance, current earnings, and career risk are all things you should consider.

2. Use conservative estimates for the equity returns you require in order to achieve your goals to account for "estimation risk."

3. Always remain cognizant of valuations -- particularly when they reach extremes (i.e., bubbles).

4. Always strive to keep your costs as low as possible; this makes an enormous differenceover time.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:47 | Report Abuse

The long-term trend of the stock market is up and its performance consistent

There is more than 200 years of U.S. stock market history and the long-term trend is up.

Over the long term, stock market performance has been rather consistent.

During any 50-year period, it provided an average after-inflation return of between 5 and 7 percent per year.

If you invested in a well-diversified basket of stocks and left them alone, the purchasing power of your investment would have doubled roughly every 12 years.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:47 | Report Abuse

Stocks over the long-run offer the greatest potentials return of any investment

Although long-term returns are fairly consistent, short-term returns are much volatile.

Stocks over the long-run offer the greatest potential return of any investment, but the short-run roller-coaster rides can be a nightmare for those who don't understand the market and lack a sound investment plan to cope with it.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:50 | Report Abuse

The market frequently forgets the important relationship between Return on Capital and Return on Stock

Return on Capital

Return on capital is a measure of a company's profitability.

Return on Capital = Profit / Invested Capital


Return on Stock

Return on stock represents a combination of dividends and increases in the stock price (capital gains).

Stockholder Total Return = Capital Gains + Dividends




The important relationship between Return on Capital and Return on Stock

The market frequently forgets the important relationship between return on capital and return on stock.

A company can earn a high return on capital, but the shareholders could still suffer if the market price of the stock decreases over the same period.

Similarly, a terrible company with a low return on capital may see its stock price increase

- if the firm performed less terribly than the market had expected, or,
- maybe the company is currently losing lots of money, but investors have bid up its stock in anticipation of future profits.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 09:51 | Report Abuse

Short run

In the short term, there can be a disconnect between

- how a company performs and
- how its stock performs.


This is because a stock's market price is a function of the market's perception of the value of the future profits a company can create.

Sometimes this perception is spot on; sometimes it is way off the mark.



Long run

But over a longer period of time, the market tends to get it right, and the performance of a company's stock will mirror the performance of the underlying business.




The Voting and Weighing Machines

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, explained this concept by saying that in the short run, the market is like a voting machine - tallying which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine - assessing the substance of a company.




Message

What matters in the long run is a company's actual underlying business performance and not the investing public's fickle opinion about its prospects in the short run.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 13:32 | Report Abuse

Could Johnson & Johnson Stock Help You Become a Millionaire?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/13/could-johnson-johnson-stock-help-you-become-a-mill/

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-06-15 13:32 | Report Abuse

Could Johnson & Johnson Stock Help You Become a Millionaire?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/13/could-johnson-johnson-stock-help-you-become-a-mill/

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-16 10:11 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2023-06-16-story-h-267781246-6_months_12_months_and_18_months_ROI_contest.jsp

3iii,
For your attention as UlarSawa suggest a contest between your PBB and my Insas

Posted by chopstick > 2023-06-16 11:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

DO NOTHING NOW, JUST WAIT.
MARKET IS STANGNAT NOW. HARD TO UP, HARD TO DOWN.

Invest when market is quiet, sell when mkt is hot A very good example YTL , YTL power , i bought it few yrs back , stagnant price 65cts to 70 cts almost give up suddenly now like rocket OMG

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-19 12:52 | Report Abuse

Repost:

Posted by Sslee > Jun 19, 2023 7:51 AM | Report Abuse X

Good morning 3iii,
I felt very honoured that 3iii drop in this blog and give his sincere advice: "Why waste time in this "contest"? It will achieve nothing meaningful or educational. An ego trip or fun trip at best"

Life happiness is to have some fun and maybe do sometime good/fun for our ego.

My objective for this contest:
1.Hope that i3rivals can settle their dispute with a friedly, fair and fun ego contest.

2. For my own study as I need a real stocks data to analyse what are the fator TA, FA, BS and etc that make the stock outperform others in 6, 12, 18 months ROI period.

Beside I just want to let youngsters to know life is about that one choice we choose at the life crossroad. So choose carefully after a deep consideration.

By the way if you choose wrong you still can make your right choice when you come to the next crossroad.

Wish all live a life of gratefulness without regret.

PS: To be successfull you need to choose who you want to learn from and associate with

Have a good day


Posted by Sslee > Jun 19, 2023 8:22 AM | Report Abuse X

The study will be a collective effort as at the end of each period everyone are welcome to make input into what has change TA, FA, BS and etc that make this stock outperform others and whether these changes are already forsee/predicted or can be monitor as it happen

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-19 17:08 | Report Abuse

Repost:

Agreed with 3iii,

"over a very long time horizon, 5 to 10 years, the stock market is a weighing machine. The price then will generally reflect the real value better"

And especially, "The prices of a stock can fluctuate hugely over the short term: 50% up and 1/3rd down"

So shouldn't it make it a very urgent and important research task to conduct a real study by a collective effort as at the end of each period 6, 12, 18 months everyone are welcome to make input into what has change TA, FA, BS and etc that make this stock outperform others and whether these changes are already forsee/predicted or can be monitor as it happen.


Many in this contest by SSLee will be "fooled by randomness"
I take it as a compliment from 3iii. Once again TQVM