KLSE (MYR): KOSSAN (7153)
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Last Price
2.46
Today's Change
+0.01 (0.41%)
Day's Change
2.41 - 2.46
Trading Volume
4,172,400
Ann. Date | Name | Details of Changes | Securities After Changes | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Type | No. of Shares | Price | Direct (%) | Indirect (%) | Total (%) |
Trump got convicted. But he can still run for president.
Democrats just hammer in their final nail to their coffin.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/can-trump-still-be-president-00160433
1 month ago
The US Cpe inflation is within expectation and Ecb most likely to cut rate in June. Tuesday will be a good time to bottom pick. Good luck
1 month ago
Demand is more than Supply. Price should go up.
Best Buy 24010 / 152
Best Sell 4002 / 62
1 month ago
No. I'm only invested in Kossan. But Harta forum is more active... so I kepoh there. 😅
To me Kossan should catch up with Harta in price.
1 month ago
Kossan should at least catch up Harta Price , such underrated with highest Cash on hand and highest PAT among the Big 4
1 month ago
Money is coming back in to klse. Better sharpen your technicals. Fundamentals will take a back seat, swing it well and good luck
1 month ago
Yeah. I was waiting for this. Foreign funds coming in would be a good opportunity to trim down.
Higher lows make it hard to swing trade on this. Unless there big news on gloves. I think next lookout is TopGlove results.
1 month ago
I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves. Info from here:
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/03/1031853/kossan-rubbers-sales-may-remain-stagnant-first-half-2024-says#:~:text=The%20firm%20added%20that%20Kossan,FY23%20to%20enhance%20operating%20margins.
1 month ago
I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves.
Q1 2024:
Revenue = Rm 451,625,000 = $96,090,425 (at 4.7 xchange rate)
Gloves sold per 1000 unit = $96,090,425/$16 = 6,005,652
Conclusion on SPECULATION:
Kossan can sell at $17.20. China is selling at $16 too but there's a 7.5% tariff which equals to $17.20.
Meaning Kossan could had make:-
Revenue: 6,005,652 x $17.20 = $103,297,207 x 4.7 = Rm485,496,875
Extra profit at same cost: Rm485,496,875 - Rm 451,625,000 = Rm33,871,875
As ASP improve, Kossan can sell at higher price. Harta's ASP is $21. So Kossan has much room to move up.
Just by taking ASP of $18, Kossan can easily make extra Rm56.5 million.
Rm56.5 million + Rm22.2million (Q1 24 PBT) = Rm78.7million.
Which is similar to 2019 quarterly earning.
On Utilization Rate.
Also, 6,005,652,000 per quarter means 24 billion per year. Kossan annual capacity is 32 billion in 2019.
24/32 = 75% utilization rate. This number could be lower if follows 2024 annual capacity but I don't have the number.
I see improvement. I'm holding and hope to see better Q2 results as ASP is stabilizing.
1 month ago
Great insight. Need confirmation of their operation efficiency and with utilzation improving to above 80%. KOSSAN should surpass Harta soon.
1 month ago
@KimSua you can read Kossan automation here from The Edge:
https://kossan.com.my/media/pdf/2021/MediaCoverage-TheEdgeDigitalEdge-KossanDigitalTransformation_20210329.pdf
1 month ago
Chipee thanks for the information. We know each quarter results will be better than the last for at least end of the year and next year US will start transition their supplier away from China.
4 weeks ago
Cup and handle forming, high chance for a breakout next week to test recent high. The cup depth is small and handle volume is small as well. Let's see how, good luck
3 weeks ago
Quad witching hour this friday. Trade with care, expect high volume surge and violatility due to options expiry.
3 weeks ago
Now I'm observing 28 June. USTR is collecting opinions from their industry players on the tariff hike. I'm hoping they want it to be earlier than 2026. Old and bigger players may want to kill their small/new players in US. These new players has been "disturbing" their profit using China's gloves. We'll see. Can only hope.
3 weeks ago
Let the data sink in for them. We will see the next week. As Kimsua highlighted, options expiring.
ChandranG
Sell on good news today?
3 weeks ago
In the AGM, Mr Lim mentioned that the worst was over, however the recovery is more like a L shape, instead of V. Utilisation rate was about 60% only for Apr & May.
3 weeks ago
The boost of USA tariff of 25% in 2026 will only have temporary effect, as China will gain more market share in Europe. The supply & demand will be rebalanced as a whole. The ASP will more or less back to 2025 level after that.
3 weeks ago
If you have not seen the news, RIGHT parties are winning in Europe. We will see the result in UK and France election results next month. If they take over the governments, rest assure more tariff on China. I doubt China can take over Europe market.
3 weeks ago
When Kossan new HQ will be officially launch?
Everyday I passed by it, such a nice building, very ESG style of building, especially if you compare it to Top Glove Tower.
2 weeks ago
Another rally for glove counters ?
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cdc-data-shows-covid-19-cases-rising-in-majority-of-us-states/articleshow/111319633.cms
1 week ago
Tomorrow is the 1st day of 2nd half year.
Wish everyone Heng Ong Huat.
Wish KLCI break 1700 by end of the year.
Wish FBMSMCAP break 23,000 by end of the year.
1 week ago
American Hospitals Association wrote a letter to USTR to reconsider the tariff on medical products from China. This part of the letter:
"The AHA urged the USTR to only impose tariffs if it demonstrates sufficient manufacturing capacity outside of China to make choices among manufacturers a credible option. "
Gloves are easily available outside China. .. as in Malaysia. :)
So if USTR may reduce the tariff on other medical products from China, will USTR apply 25% tariff on China's gloves as early as 2025? Knowing US need to collect tax to pay their debt and reduce their fiscal deficit.
1 week ago
If Kossan release Q1 in 21 May 2024, then the Q2 result will be out 21 August. I don't why they keep moving their release date. It's very annoying.
1 day ago
You should ask Kossan management, Chipee. If not mistaken, they have a 60-day deadline to publish the quarter report
3 hours ago
Chipee
YEah @5354_ I answered
Repost:
What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.
As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."
Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.
Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg
China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg
Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------
COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.
If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.
My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.
1 month ago