The OPEC+ nations has finally reached an agreement to cut oil production by 9.7 mbbls/day for the May - June period in its urgent Sunday meeting, after four days in limbo. The Group, which had its first meeting on Thursday, initially proposed a cut of 10 mbbls/day but left the deal unresolved due to Mexico's insistence on delivering cuts of only 100k bbls/day against 400k bbls/day cuts required under the arrangement. Meanwhile, talks with the G20 energy ministers on Friday concluded that the Group is willing to cooperate for oil market stability but did not pledge a specific level of additional cuts. With this deal, we foresee the target cuts of 10 - 15 mbbls/day as almost achieved with the assumption of US "organically" reducing its output, as suggested, together with participation by some other countries. While conditions are seemingly positive on the supply side given the end of the Saudi - Russia price war, as well as the new deal on output cuts, impact of the Covid-19 global pandemic on demand is even worse and remains uncertain, hence supply - demand dynamics likely to take a longer time to rebalance. As such, we maintain our Neutral stance on the sector with expectation that oil prices will remain volatile.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 13 Apr 2020
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俄沙"割喉战"停火 惟油价仍难止血
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJgW-SwIlaA
2020-04-14 12:01