My Trading Adventure

Plantation over-played?

CP TEH
Publish date: Fri, 07 Mar 2014, 12:06 PM
CP TEH
0 2,918
All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.
FCPO gapped up ... going to reach 2900 soon ... ridiculous as they are now talking about due to dry weather ... and expecting the production to drop(by 14%?) ... and base on that, CPO could go to 3000 level again. The recent CPO-forum giving bullish outlook ... and the soy-prices continue to surge high. We are hearing El Nino stories coming out, retailers started to get excited about plantation counters ....

CBIP was given at RM3.05 when it breakout about 3-4 months ago ... today it is hitting new high RM4.01.

TDM ... traded three times ... sold all 0.99 yesterday. That is the resistance.

TSH was checked at RM2.50 ... now, hitting RM3.40 level, a new high again today.

IJMPlant-wa ... was collected at 70cents plus level, today sold another portion at 0.80.

Kulim-wc reaching 90cents now ... talking about bull? We were collecting at 70plus level.

IOICorp was given at RM4.20 level .... now reaching RM4.80.

Many of plantation-counters are overbought ... and it is about time to take profits. I dont know about others, I have been collecting ... and releasing my plantation counters. Simply dislike those noises around, with CPO ...

We shall see how far it is going to run. Maybe CPO will be hitting 4000 level by mid-year ...

Time for lunch ...

TEH





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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 26 of 26 comments

Saturn888

Post removed.Why?

2014-03-07 12:50

Munger

Wats his point?

2014-03-07 13:07

miketyu

He has earned lots of money. Give him some applause.

2014-03-07 13:08

up_up_up

stop bragging..feel like vomit

2014-03-07 13:10

Up_down

Miketyu. Exactly. Wakaa

2014-03-07 13:11

Saturn888

oklah clap clap clap......but what am i clapping for are

2014-03-07 13:13

Up_down

Clapping for his brilliant results by outperforming majority of fund managers.

2014-03-07 13:27

eftee

Sell only when analysts start to cover. So far I don't see many talking abt it

2014-03-07 13:36

slts

a maths teacher boosthitting about his winning picks

2014-03-07 14:28

hakubasnow

Juat bullcrap talk, he just bragged about his winning like he never have bad trades or made any losses. Another one is bonescythe...what has happened to his Green Packet recommendation ?

2014-03-07 14:48

haikeyila

i agree with the overhype. look at the PER of plantation companies now, its trading at dizzying heights. A few dry months is not gonna make much of a different when everyone starts coming to their senses.

2014-03-07 15:49

iafx

for that u can try find out from their latest q result to understand at what price the cpo was, then look at following cpo price till date.

2014-03-07 15:52

Up_down

By looking at current PER, it would scare you off from investing in plantation counters. Current share prices are not truly reflected the potential of windfall profit to be generated from dry weather. The prices would be seen even higher by the time you notice the PER drops to reasonable level in future.

2014-03-07 16:06

haikeyila

if you know oil palm physiology you would know that there is no immediate impact on yield due to dry weather. speculators are using the dry weather as an excuse to jack up CPO prices. its all speculation. Then again, if everybody believes it...

2014-03-07 16:18

Up_down

I treat an investment as my own personal business. I prefer to evaluate the business performance at least 6 months ahead. Plantation business is much easier to do projection. It depends mostly on CPO price movement.

2014-03-07 16:23

iafx

exactly, not to mention those with own mill and factories. it's not yield alone here.

2014-03-07 16:25

Up_down

Plantation fever will continue so long as no raining in next 2 weeks. Of course, if no rain for more than 3 months, all palm oil trees would be dying.

2014-03-07 16:31

fzank

"Sometimes the snow comes down in June"
"Sometimes the sun goes round the Moon"
"I see the passion in your Eyes"
"Sometimes it's all a big Surprise"
"You go & save the best for Last"

Plantations over-played .... not to those that bought in early way before Mistry gave his views .....

2014-03-07 16:35

iafx

there r other factors like biofuel etc. actually, plantation co. only need to book a price around $2650, u can already see significant boost to earning, let alone $2800 and above.

2014-03-07 16:39

asoh

well at RM2800 and above, these company make real good earning, will it turn to profit??. Depends on management accountablility....if crisis up, oil up....biofuel plays alone well..

2014-03-07 21:05

AlbertLim

FINALLY… people realised what a con man he is… bragging his call only his good call… but sweeping under carpet the bad calls…. my inside info told me that yes he did have some plantation stocks but he had sold some before the bulls run in CPO… some he sold recently… for sure he will keep promoting his group… everyone must know he is a con man…

2014-03-08 03:34

xxxx

Majority of people who express opinions in all forums here have vested interests. Be careful. Do your own research. Do not follow blindly.

2014-03-08 06:47

Investeye

The real situation is : the CPO price go up vs the output of the palm oil is reduced due to dry season! So, the overall of the gain may not significant but speculation will push the plantation shares up. Just be careful of the trap!

2014-03-08 08:14

chongkonghui

i have been selling KFIMA, sold 2/3 and now keeping 1/3 for 2.30 and above. Will it be a mistake? Let's time tells.

2014-03-10 23:12

haikeyila

im surprised why people would still listen to an analysts who has always predicted wrongly. might as well just have a coin-toss.

2014-03-12 10:59

Up_down

Tossing a coin is a simple way for investment or punting. It depend on the timing you do it. If you are able to identify the trend of an industry and follow by tossing a coin to decide which company to invest/punt, you would still laugh all the way to the bank.

2014-03-12 16:49

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