My Trading Adventure

Stock Chat : dollar averaging on TM

CP TEH
Publish date: Tue, 25 Jun 2019, 08:55 AM
CP TEH
0 2,918
All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.


Morning ... awaiting G20 ... Trump + Xi = bull market but Turmp - Xi = bear market.

Interesting kinda speculations on-going ... markets no longer talk about fundamentals as it has deviated hugely from the reality but we are NOT in bubble stage yet ... DOW 30k, possible? If one needs to feel BULLISH ... go to US, selected stocks only, ya.

Over here ... we have stories on our own. 1MDB cases ... new MACC head ... new TM head ... new XYZ heads ...

The current great rebound in TM caught everyone off guard ... I SHOULD HAVE SAILANG TM ... at ABC level ... they exclaimed. Nah ... you wont. Markets work in such a weird manner ... one moment it dives ... it crashes the the whole sectors or stocks due to news ... and only to recover sharply weeks or months later ... some take years ... many more NEVER.



Strategy : Every RM1 down ... add and buy. Every RM1 up, sell a portion

Say we have RM 60k capital for TM.

RM6 ... buy RM10k = 1660 units

RM5 ...buy RM10k = 2000 units

RM4 ... buy RM10k = 2500 units

RM3 ... buy RM10k = 3340 units

RM2 ... slow slow wait (man-man-tan) ... almost hit.

RM1 ... crash time can get la.

Our average is not the mid-point as we can buy more units at lower price. Assuming we refuse to use brain but we are smart enough to know TM crashing down due to PH-gov taken over, our new minister want to cut-this-that ... putting those aside ... just need to know end of month, we have to pay our unifi-TM bills!!

So far ... we have managed to accumulate 9500 units using RM40k (2/3 of our capital) and our average is around RM4.30 (given some to fees).

Profit taking : Sold RM3 portion at RM4 :  realised profit around RM3300. 

So, now what is our average after realised some profits, while sitting on paperloss ... one fine day, TM would go to RM7 ... we would have exited all (man-man-tan la ... RM7? haha)

note : TM with PER 50 ... in case you think it is CHEAP and could go to RM7 ... in reality, it wont

Our average now is RM4.90 ... and we would be only SELLING next portion at RM5 and buying back 3340 units of TM at RM3 (again).

Do you think we could manage to sell TM at RM5? We dont know and wont care if market is going to be bull or bear. We WONT know, anyway.

Apply these to some other bull chip ... i mean, blue chips. Then ... we dont have to time the market and could be happier once the stocks dive sharply.

Be glad to buy more at lower, ok? If you bought TM at RM6 and not happy when it went to RM5, you are not an investor ... and at RM3, you panic? Heck ... it went to RM2.50 below ... you wont like it to buy more? Ok ...you are not an investor.

I wish I m smart enough to HOLD my TM which I bought around RM2.50 ... and buy big big. I m not smart .... enough.

TEH


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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

bursatrader2018

maybe can use some time to study what are the features of a waterfall stock like TM, that makes it stands out among waterfalls, such that it had much better probability of quickly rebound n worth putting money in.
That is value-add, not the dollar-averaging which is only practical for units trusts, etc.
Surely, cannot blindly dollar-average on any stk one fancy.

2019-06-25 14:56

bursatrader2018

Understanding Dollar Cost Averaging (Investopedia)

DCA is a practice wherein an investor allocates a set amount of money at regular intervals, usually shorter than a year (monthly or quarterly). DCA is generally used for more volatile investments such as stocks or mutual funds, rather than for bonds or CDs, for example. In a broader sense, DCA can include automatic deductions from your paycheck that go into a retirement plan. For the purposes of this article, however, we will focus on the first type of DCA.

ok, your strategy is not DCA, which buy at fixed regular intervals,with fixed amt.

2019-06-26 20:18

bursatrader2018

Your TM eg is investing by looking at the rear mirror,hahaha.
What happen if TM crashed to rm2.2 and stayed there for 1-2 yr in rm2-rm2.90 range ? So many scenarios....

2019-06-26 20:28

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