kcchongnz blog

“Empty tong, pong, pong, pong” kcchongnz

kcchongnz
Publish date: Thu, 22 Oct 2015, 07:58 PM
kcchongnz
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This a kcchongnz blog

My last posting in the link below receives more than 8500 views and 58 comments in less than 2 days.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/84797.jsp

It is not a matter of how many comments, but how many good comments. Good comments do not only mean all “shioky” praises and compliments, but also critical and constructive comments from people not necessary agreeable with me. Those comments I received are almost all, actually I consider it as all, are “shioky” comments.

Thank you for all the kind words and the moral support for me to carry on writing; some from my course participants, some from my friends and e-friends, some I just do not know them.

Also thanks a couple of them who are critical about my investing strategies as expressed in this thread, but without the terms like "talk cock", "empty tong", "rubbish", "Bull shit", "misleading' etc.
 

I have to specifically mention about this one with a simple statement from him, as I have learned a great deal of things from the past:

[Posted by luzeeker > Oct 20, 2015 09:52 PM | Report Abuse
Keep writing KC, you wrote good articles.]

So looks like I am "obliged" to keep on writing, because the guy above who wrote great articles had stopped writing and there are very limited great investment Bloggers I can refer to now.

Well, it is better not to keep on harping on those good comments anymore and get “shiok” myself, but I would like to share with you some of my views on investing by referring to some very critical and flowery comments appear in the other thread.

 

Let us start with some mild comments first.

 

[Posted by Alpha Trader > Oct 20, 2015 02:09 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Kc invest based on his professor knowledge, Koon invest based on his entrepeunership experience
If professor is correct, you will see them appear in the top 100 forbes list already, book worms cant replace people like Mr Koon la, Kc Chong will miss a lot of stocks definitely

Posted by Alpha Trader > Oct 20, 2015 05:09 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Whichever you follow you could make money, you just have to know what majority of the people like in this kind of environment
KC said SUCCESS WAS NOT INVESTABLE AT 1.40, LOOK AT TODAY'S PRICE AT RM1.82, where is KC now?
]

 

]Posted by feliz > Oct 20, 2015 08:20 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Another stock which was bad-mouthed by kc chong a few months back is Success. Boy, take a look at how the stock moved up recently. It proves this guy wrong again big time.]

 

Hi, KC is here, and I am always here. So what do you want to discuss with me?

I wrote an article on Success Transformers about two weeks ago here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/82565.jsp

Its share price shot up immediately. Aren’t you happy that I have written the article and as a result, you made quick and big bucks? So are you looking for me to give me a treat, or are you saying I am wrong about what I have written about the cash flows of the company, just because its share price has shot up these few days? Have I talked about what its share price would be?

But let me ask you what did I talk about in the article? Did I say it “WAS NOT INVESTABLE”? Do you understand what I was talking about in the article?

Yes, I talked about Success’s poor cash flows. So remember, every time I talk about poor cash flows of a company, any company, just go and grab its shares. Use margin finance as much as possible, its share price will sure go up, and you will sure make big money.

For your information, I am no professor, although I have a Master in Finance. But I have mentioned what is thought in university is not much use in real life investing.

Am I a bookworm? Why do you mention bookworm? A professor, and a bookworm? Have I used any Greeks?

Cash flows for a business is simple thing. You pay cash to for the operations, and receive cash when you sell goods and services. The difference of the cash in and cash out is the cash flows from operations (CFFO). Then from the CFFO, you spend money to buy new plant and equipment, what is remained is free cash flows (FCF).

Is this cash flows thingy such a complicated formula, a jargon, which can mislead you? I have housewives in my courses and some of them are not good at maths but they can add and minus perfectly well. I can’t imagine you say it is complicated and misleading.

So I encourage you to read what this cash flow thingy is here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83903.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83959.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76694.jsp

I have alsowritten an article on cash flows in details for this company, Latitude Tree long long time ago in the link below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/48173.jsp

See the power of cash flows.

Return of equity is also very simple, just divided net income by the equity, and da da, you get ROE. Is that complicated, a jargon? My 5-year old grand nephew also knows how to compute this ratio, given the numbers.

Sure your statement here is correct, “Kc Chong will miss a lot of stocks definitely”.

In fact I have missed hundreds of stocks in Bursa. But haven’t you?

Remember what Buffet says:

The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch.”

But I am very curious about you this statement, “Whichever you follow you could make money, you just have to know what majority of the people like in this kind of environment”

Because all I know is this, and this makes much more sense:

It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.”

 

Let us look at the comment from another one:

 

[Posted by BullRunComing > Oct 20, 2015 03:06 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Simple idea of trading. As long as company is earning money, share price will surely go up. Too much of analysis will only make you fail. Entrepreneurship of Mr Koon made him a successful man. You cannot listen to a blogger and compare them. Listen to the people that have already succeeded.]

A company makes money and share price will go up?

Do you know that KNM has been making money every year since 10 years ago? 8 years ago its share price was touching RM10 apiece. And what is its share price now?

Do you also know London Biscuits have been making money every year too, not only making profit but increasing profit almost every year? Its share price was more than RM2.50 some years ago and look, what is its share price now.

Please refer to this link here. There are many more examples here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/63777.jsp

Why do you say “Too much of analysis will only make you fail”? What evidence do you have? I did a lot of analysis for those stocks in the above link, and look how much I have helped those people who took heed of what I wrote there. So why do you think I have failed in my investment? We will talk more about it later.

I presume your statement here, “Listen to the people that have already succeeded” refers to his stock tips. But are you sure you will be successful doing that? Have you considered all those stock tips?

 

Below is an interesting comment:

[Posted by John Wong > Oct 20, 2015 03:05 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

When VS repays all the debt, cash flow becomes strong, VS price becomes RM20, KC Chong will call a buy.]

First of all for your information again, all my articles are for sharing of investment knowledge. Even when I talked about a particular stock, I never make a call to buy or sell, simple because I won’t know the share price performance of the stock in the future. Get that into your head please.

Secondly, I am a “cheap” person. I won’t want to pay for a RM40 curry mee in Bangsar Shopping Centre when I can get one for RM5 in a coffee shop which is as good.

Thirdly, a company must have free cash flows to pay down debt, and to pay dividends. How much does VS has in total of FCF for the last 7 long years, including the last year? Please read the link here. It is no complicated thing, no jargons, no bull shit, not misleading.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83784.jsp

 Is it because of the economics of its business, or something else? I seriously don’t know. So I won’t stick my head out for something too difficult for me to fathom.

Note I am not saying this problem won’t be solved, it is just that it is too difficult for me and me, me and not you, won’t invest in it. I have scores of other one-foot hurdle than this 7-footer.

 

Here come the “tough” ones, some flowery comments from an “expert”.

 

[Posted by growthinvestor > Oct 20, 2015 04:36 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Posted by koonthebest > Oct 20, 2015 01:48 PM | Report Abuse
empty tong PONG PONG PONG! where your bursa statement! PONG PONG PONG response got lah!
please post the bursa statement past 3-5 years.unless proven to be real, his writing and analysis can be justified rubbish.

Posted by growthinvestor > Oct 20, 2015 05:48 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

i use harsh word now.the empty tong kc analyse VS intrinsic value at RM3+ and you said 50% before at rm3+ good for long term?contradicting right.lose is lose.wrong is wrong.
proof the bursa statement
past 3-5 years sure shuts up all critics.no proof no point talk why value investing is right!]

 

“Empty tong, pong, pong, pong.”

“Show me your Bursa statements past 3-5 years!”

“Rubbish”

“unless proven real, his writing and analysis is rubbish”

 

Wow! Serious man!

Why do I have to show you Bursa records for the last 5 years? I have never told you I have made so much money in the stock market in the first place. So do I have to prove anything to you?

How many times I have to tell you making a lot of money from the stock market is not something great. It doesn’t add any value to the society. In fact often manipulators making a lot of money from the stock market is extracting value from the society.

Okay you are right, I didn’t make any money at all. I helped others to make money. That is nobler, isn’t it? Read these:

[Posted by coolio > Oct 22, 2015 11:58 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

KC, please keep doing the good things you are doing now. I know you will just ignore those annoying sound out there, you know your quality.
I just want to take this opportunity to say thank you again because recently I have achieved 7 figure in my investing journey...hehehe.. Thanks for your investing methods, no 8 wonders in the world is really amazing
!]

Since years ago, I have been in i3investors answering some questions from forumers here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75946.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp

Those people followed what I said were good stocks to invest in using the Coldeye 5 yardsticks would have easily earned 200% compared to the return of 20% of the broad market during the same period as shown in the first link above. I believe some of them do. Isn’t this a nobler act? Okay lah according to you I didn’t make any money at all since I don’t have the Bursa statements to show you.

 

“Empty tong, pong, pong, pong and rubbish”? That expert said.

Yeah, empty tong, pong, pong, pong, talk is of no use. Show!

Let us examine a real portfolio invested in Bursa using this value investing strategy up to today on 22nd October 2015. I used this portfolio as an example for various reasons. Firstly, it is my portfolio, my own experience investing in Bursa for the last few years. This portfolio of mine is the longest I have with public record in i3investor, although I have owned it longer than that, but there is no record and so would be pong, pong, pong only.

Secondly this portfolio was published by a third party, a regular contributor in i3investor named Tan KW when it was formed in 21st January 2013 here. So I play no part in showing off the portfolio or manipulate the stocks in the portfolio.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp

 

Return of investing in good companies

Those stocks were chosen basing on the principle of the Magic Formula by Joel Greenblatt; buying good companies at cheap price. How intuitive it is. I encourage those who are interested in this investing strategy to read my article here. Guarantee it is not rubbish or pong, pong, pong.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp

All 10 stocks in the portfolio have positive total returns which varies from the lowest of 0% for Pantech to 373% for Prestariiang for the last two years and nine months as shown in the table below.

The average return is 116% with a median return of 66.5%, compared to 9.5% of the broad market during the same period. The excess return is a whopping 106%. RM100000 invested in this portfolio on 21st January 2013 becomes RMRM216000 now, compared to RM110000 if invested in the top 30 stocks in Bursa.

Okay lah, I gave this portfolio to Tan KW for fun. I got no prove to show you I have invested in those stocks. But at least someone has made 7 digit figure as shown in the comment above, and he thanked me for that. That is satisfying by itself. Don’t you think so?

I have also used this Magic Formula for some furnituer stocks here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/59705.jsp

See for yourself how amazing is this Magic Formula

Others who are interested in this strategy, and many other not pong pong pong strategy, can learn from me too for a small fee by emailing me at

ckc14training2@gmail.com

 

So now your turn to show us your record, Mr growthinvestor. Do you have anything to show, some good articles, or maybe your 3-5 years Bursa record? Or are you the one who is empty tong and pong, pong, pong?

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments

BenBlurBlur

If KYY posts tat he made rm 15 millions on VS then u lose is it?? Thank u

2015-10-22 20:29

thteh

KC, stick to what you do best and ignore all the noises. You have many who appreciate your articles in i3.

2015-10-22 20:33

Tom

kcloh = fortunebullz = icon6666

2015-10-22 20:37

ganabilo

Very sick person this Tom fellow

Posted by Tom > Oct 22, 2015 08:37 PM | Report Abuse

kcloh = fortunebullz = icon6666

2015-10-22 21:11

Tom

how possible, kcloh? just a reminder for everyone ma

Posted by ganabilo > Oct 22, 2015 09:11 PM | Report Abuse

Very sick person this Tom fellow

2015-10-22 21:15

BearbearDrop

This tong very big and powerful
When it make noise all listen
It is not a simple empty tin

2015-10-22 21:43

Vaganond

Ganabilo. Ignore the mental sick Tom. A true empty tong, pong, pong, pong.

2015-10-22 21:45

BearbearDrop

Small tong make small noise
Big tong make bigger noise
How is it like that
Big tong can disperse noise louder, far and equally

2015-10-22 21:46

BearbearDrop

It is also depend on the material used
Metal tong is noisy
Plastics tong isn't
Because metal is harder and it efficiently convert into noise

2015-10-22 21:47

BearbearDrop

This is a gold plated metal tong
When someone hit it
His hand break and received super noisy blow

2015-10-22 21:49

BearbearDrop

It do not make pong sound
It make sharper sound like a modified car ezo pipe and it is insanely disturbing make a few minutes noise

2015-10-22 21:53

paperplane2

Kc chongnz, did not see your earlier posting when u strt all these, how about doing one more in such tough market? I have yet to see any fund mgr who can return handsomely even during down time, by using methods you mentioned.
OTB successful as we pick sector, which I notice u didnot. U purely use value investing method, by identifying deep value companies.

2015-10-22 21:57

paperplane2

In my exp, I doubt also one can be doing well without doing sector screening. Example, I will avoid property stocks now, even I saw lots of stocks now selling below their nta, below EV/ edita

2015-10-22 21:58

hissyu2

paperlane2, KC always says, diversify your portfolio is the only free lunch in the world... so, i believe he won't risk all counters in his portfolio with single type of business. It might also tell that KC is a long term investor+value investor... his 2013 article had "discovered" homeriz/lii hien/pohuat/hevea/latitud much earlier than others... and if you see the market price 2013 for these counters vs now... :)

2015-10-22 22:03

goldenluck16

Sector screening is very important as it follows the market trend, the cyclical nature of the economy. Two years ago those who invested in the O&G counters made handsome returns whereas those who put their money in the furniture counters reaped handsome gains. We need to keep an eye on the current trend of demand in the various sectors. It's a safer way to track the market other than the various techniques of FA,TA etc, etc.

2015-10-22 22:12

hissyu2

QUOTED from Motley Fool's 77 Reasons You're Awful at Managing Money that are related to stocks

Your definition of "long term" is the time between now and next bear market, whenever that is.

QUOTED from coldeye's book:
以大众银行(PBBank,1295,主板金融股)为例,大众银行在1967年4月6日上市,该年的股价最高做1。24令吉,最低0。84令吉。

假设你以每股1令吉买进1千股,投资额为1千令吉。

买进以后,不管股价起落,就坚持不卖。

40年后的今天,在收取十二次红股和认购五次附加股之后,你手头一共拥有129,722股大众银行。

以今天(1月25日)11。20令吉的股价计算,价值145万令吉,总共增值1千450倍(每1令吉变1千450令吉)。

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/coldeye/16884.jsp

I am wondering how many counters you need to switch by following the market trend every year:) While, Cold Eye's example proven that a good FA counter like PBBank, you can get 1000x folds in 40 years. 250% of return each years if i just simply the number :)

So, FA wasn't the safest way? hmm...

2015-10-22 23:19

paperplane2

Not easy doing sector screening.....

2015-10-23 01:04

globalvalueinvestor

Paper plane2, how hard it could be?

2015-10-23 01:27

king36

KCChong. Another good article.
Can u share how do u get ROIC, EV/EBIT and EY from your table above?
I am a newbie in stock & not very figure good. But you explain FCF and ROE above well.
Sometimes, I see some ratios like total debt/EV, or net debt/EBITDA or net debt/FFO etc. being negative. How’s possible?
Still hazy and learning.
Thank you in advance.

2015-10-23 06:21

JT Yeo

www.gurufocus.com is a good place to find those info.

Normally what i do is i google say 'focus lumber ev/ebit' you will see gurufocus results show up. they got virtually all the metrics in there. Can't say they are 100% accurate, by my experience is very reliable.

2015-10-23 07:37

kcchongnz

Posted by king36 > Oct 23, 2015 06:21 AM | Report Abuse
KCChong. Another good article.
Can u share how do u get ROIC, EV/EBIT and EY from your table above?
I am a newbie in stock & not very figure good. But you explain FCF and ROE above well.
Sometimes, I see some ratios like total debt/EV, or net debt/EBITDA or net debt/FFO etc. being negative. How’s possible?
Still hazy and learning.
Thank you in advance.

I am puzzled why your comment was flagged. Something wrong on the quest of learning?

Learning those stuff is easy if you are prepared to spend time and effort. There are plenty of resources out there in the internet. You can refer to some links here if you want to hear my opinion:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50101.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49016.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp

It may be better if you can get some proper guidance to shorten your learning curve.

Knowledge is powerful, and this is important too. Do not let others tell you otherwise.

2015-10-23 09:47

thebadguy

Hi KC, I appreciate and respect the articles you have put in here on i3. However you should let this one go. Your analysis of VS was not wrong, but as you say you can't predict the market, and continuing on this route is a dead end.

Would also like to point out to everyone that people who can donate 50 million ringgit style of investment is most likely very different from ikan bilis. They are most likely privy to a lot of information that is unavailable to you.

2015-10-23 10:17

kcchongnz

Posted by thebadguy > Oct 23, 2015 10:17 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, I appreciate and respect the articles you have put in here on i3. However you should let this one go. Your analysis of VS was not wrong, but as you say you can't predict the market, and continuing on this route is a dead end.
Would also like to point out to everyone that people who can donate 50 million ringgit style of investment is most likely very different from ikan bilis. They are most likely privy to a lot of information that is unavailable to you.

Thank you very much. You are a good guy.

2015-10-23 11:00

valuelurker

There will always be people who will doubt you. Especially the more right you are. Don't spend all that time answering the critics. Save your energy for something more useful. Time is of the essence

2015-10-23 16:02

kcchongnz

Posted by valuelurker > Oct 23, 2015 04:02 PM | Report Abuse
There will always be people who will doubt you. Especially the more right you are. Don't spend all that time answering the critics. Save your energy for something more useful. Time is of the essence

You are absolutely right. Thanks.

2015-10-23 16:20

Ezra_Investor

To you KC:

"The Man in the Arena" - Theodore Roosevelt

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

2015-10-23 16:24

Ezra_Investor

No matter how others criticize you, you will always be respected as one of my gurus in investing.

2015-10-23 16:27

kcchongnz

Ezra, that is inspiring. Thank you.

2015-10-23 16:53

Probability

Good one there Ezra....
It made me remember all those true warriors who would have lost in a battle. Specifically - battles for a good cause.

2015-10-23 17:02

kcchongnz

Posted by Probability > Oct 23, 2015 05:02 PM | Report Abuse
Good one there Ezra....
It made me remember all those true warriors who would have lost in a battle. Specifically - battles for a good cause.

Yeah, people, including me, who buy a certain stock are confident, or could be overconfident about the stock. There may be something we are not aware of which may not be good for our investing outcome.

What I was trying to do is to show some of the concerns about the stocks so that they have different perspective and can form better judgment.

Of course i could very well be wrong because as a non-shareholder, i don't know much about the stock but merely from the financial statements, like what icon said.

But how come they took at as if I was trying to talk down on their stocks, and used all kinds of flowery phrases? And even called me names?

But never mind, as properly advised by a few good guys here, I just have to move on.

Thanks Probability.

2015-10-23 18:28

Intelligent Investor

Mr. Chong,

Yes. Let's move on.

I am looking forward for another good quality kcchongnz's article.

To me, your article is a "must read".

"In the world of investing, being correct about something isn't at all synonymous with being proved correct right away." - Howard Marks

"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right." - Benjamin Graham

2015-10-23 18:43

JN88

Move on move on, budget 2016 is end just .....good investors sure OT gao gao ...

2015-10-23 19:04

Kelvin Loh

Yeah KC, let's move on. I agree with II. Your article is must read to me too. I have favorite your site and I read even all of your comments in I3. Cheers!

2015-10-24 10:31

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