kcchongnz blog
Another lesson from Gadang kcchongnz
As a shareholder (former) of Gadang, I have been reading about all the interesting stories about it in i3investor, including the latest one with this statement below:
“They are stupid. They only believe in financial analysis which is encouraging as it is based on historical figures. FA cannot tell you the future of the company.”
With that, as an investor using purely fundamental analysis, I finally decided to join in the fun here. I will attempt to give some response on whether’
- Are fundamental investors stupid?
- Was the result of Gadang, with EPS of 40 sen in fy2016 encouraging?
- Are those “historical” figures useless?
- Can FA tell you the future?
First let’s carry out a simple event study of Gadang in the last few months.
Event study of Gadang
Figure 1 shows the share price movement of Gadang for the last few months. Its share price was already shooting up from around RM2.00 at end of June 2016 prior to the announcement of its wonderful 4th quarter result ended 30th May 2016 on 21st July 2016 to RM2.33, with the final quarterly result with an annual EPS of 40 sen.
Figure 1: Event study for Gadang
There were heavy promotions of this stock then. It was at that time that I decided to utilize some behavioural finance of Daniel Kahneman such as the cognitive belief bias and jumped into the bandwagon to invest in this stock, not because of the deceiving profit growth (I will explain later), but the hot-hand fallacy of the “Golden Rule” investing.
The share price continued to go up to RM2.60 as the golden rule investors poured in their money as I have expected. Why not? As the market capitalization of Gadang was about RM500m then, it is easy to push up the price. When a multiple proposal of freebies in share split, bonus issues and “free” warrants was announced on 25th August 2016, its share price shot up again to a high of RM3.30 on 25th October 2016. For those who want to know about the peril of chasing corporate exercises may refer to my article here,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/106438.jsp
That was the time I saw another promotion of the stock titled,
“Do you still dare to buy some more Gadang?”
Quote“As you know I have recommended you to buy Gadang and many of you would have bought it. The chart below shows that it has gone up from Rm 2.10 to close at Rm 3.31 today, an increase of Rm 1.21 or 58% in the last 3 months.
As the price has gone up, your margin limit has also gone up and you have additional buying facility.
All the buyers of Gadang would have seen its announcement in Bursa as follows: one share will be split into 2 shares. After the share split, one bonus share will be given to every 4 shares and one free convertible warrant will be awarded to every 4 shares. The EGM to approve this multi proposal is on 3 rd Nov. 2016.
All the buyers would have also seen that Gadang’s earning per share was 40.7 sen for last financial year, ending 31st May 2016.
A Super Investor: The super investor will study the case carefully and he sets a realistic target price after taking into consideration of its 40.7 sen EPS, the bonus shares, bonus warrants and its future profit growth in the construction business. Moreover, Gadang was awarded the contract to develop 24.5 acres of Kwasa Land within 20 years. Although property market is currently not so good, Gadang did not pay for the land. Gadang can wait while the land value appreciates. Can you imagine how much the land appreciates in 10 or 20 years?
I think Gadang will go above Rm 4.00 easily at P/E 10.
Can you find another share selling at P/E 10 with such good profit growth prospect? Unquote”
I wrote to one of my investor friends then as I saw some serious misinformation there, like Gadang was given a blank check in the Kwasa Land Development.
“I sold off Gadang and Gamuda at RM2.89 and RM1.39 respectively about a month ago as I was not comfortable with the heavy buying (with margin) and promotion by someone, which I thought if the market turns ugly, the consequence could be very bad, and hence I follow my very principle of taking care of the downside first in investing. That proved to be a correct move.”
No, I didn’t know its next quarter results would be bad, but just became cautious.
What can fundamental analysis (FA) shows you on Gadang results?
The final quarter result ended 31st May 2016 announced on 21st July 2016 shows earnings per share, EPS of 40.7 sen. At about RM2.50 then, PE ratio is only about 6, very cheap. Someone placed a fair value of Gadang at RM4.00 using the simplistic PE ratio of 10. However, FA practitioners place a lot of emphasis (at least for me) on cash flows. Gadang has a negative cash flows from operations (CFFO) for the same period. Good accounting before-tax earnings of RM124m, but negative cash inflows. Why?
Gadang spends enormous amount of money for “Development costs” of RM288m last year. It has RM62.2m receivables which further sucked up its cash. if not for delaying payment to its subcontractors/suppliers in the year with increase in payable of RM233m, the cash flow situation would be much worse. A red flag
Further looking at the footnotes of the financial statement, it says,
“Revenue for the current year (property division), to date increased by 44.3% to RM172.72m and profit before tax increased by 33.6% from 39.76m to RM53.1m. This was mainly due to higher development progress for various projects.”
And now you look at the balance sheet in the current asset section on “Property development costs”. The item has increased from RM200m to RM484m.
Revenue has been recognized, but costs capitalized? How? Have all the properties sold out already that cash will be eventually all collected? I don’t know.
I do have a concern, don’t I? Especially seeing someone posted dismay pictures of one of its property development projects in JB. No, I didn’t say it is true, but a cautionary note for myself.
Well, I guess I have answered the first three questions above, and if you continue to criticize that FA is historical and useless, and FA practitioners looking at ROE, cash flows etc. are stupid, I have nothing else to say.
For the fourth question, no, I as a FA practitioner can’t tell the future, and I believe the picture in the future of Gadang painted by you may be wrong too. I for one will not believe a historical price chart can tell the future performance of the company too. Gadang may get some high margin construction projects in the future and its profit in the following quarters may be higher. Who knows? Isn’t that the construction industry is still bullish? Well, I am not saying so, and neither I say no. There isn’t any crystal ball in-front of me.
But FA for sure can avoid a lot of pitfalls in investing. Don’t believe? You can refer to what I have written here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45373.jsp
For the record, I have been right for every of the stocks mentioned there written 4 years ago.
FA practitioners are not stupid. Financial statement analysis is very useful as it is the language of business, and FA is more intuitive than any “Golden rule”, in my opinion.
That is why I have been advocating FA all the time in a public forum like i3investor. I have been promoting my course in FA in i3investor all the time.
For anyone is convinced and wishing to learn FA in a structured manner to avoid any pitfall in investing, you may contact me at
ckc13invest@gmail.com
You are welcomed to give constructive criticism in my article here.
KC Chong
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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 130 comments
Posted by xuewen > Nov 27, 2016 04:21 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by kcchongnz > Nov 27, 2016 04:15 PM | Report Abuse
Still, I do not owe you any explanation.
then what the hell you share your article here with email ?
to promote your online course ?
so, you are not genuine to share here
I have mentioned outright that I am trying to get more people to learn about FA so that they can invest to build up long-term wealth. Yes, of course with a fee, a small fee though.
For this article, I do see quite a lot of people appreciate it, of course only for those who can understand what I have written and trying to propagate.
2016-11-27 16:35
Posted by xuewen > Nov 27, 2016 04:37 PM | Report Abuse
I just talked to Mr Koon, the wise man told me to hold on with Gadang, he want to collect cheaper later, ask me to keep so we both will be the final winner by end of the 2016
Can you please confirm your statement above?
2016-11-27 16:46
Lol, even kc chong came in and join, nice, more cut loss tomorrow
Kc chong analysis is not for construction company, we all know that end of the life project always has variation order, the fact that gadang cash flow is weak because their debtor had not paid them and they havent even billed their debtor yet
Google what is variation orders, i am very confident to say whoever sells tomorrow sure will curse koon and kc chong in the future, but tomorrow more selll down is good , can buy cheaper
2016-11-27 16:49
From Kok On, Uncle K, Coldeye, and even KC are selling.
Who else dare to buy?
2016-11-27 16:50
KC,
Of course FA analysis cannot guarantee continued good/excellent performance of any company - but it is one of the most important tool, if not the most important, to indicate a company's future health/performance. It is no less a detailed resume' of the entity, in this case the company, even if it is about it's immediate past.Like when a person applies for a job, the potential employer often depends on his resume'( which is his/her past) to make a decision whether the person will be a good and capable employee - there is also no certainty that he/she would be so. FA is actually better than this analogy. If FA indicates the company has lots of FCF, giving consistently growing dividend yields far better than FD returns, a proven honest and clever management, and high ROIC and in a type of business where it may have a moat, the chances of that being a wrong investment is really very low. In fact the reality is the chances of it being a very good investment is very high. Nothing is certain in life and in choices for investment but we can take good calculated risks using FA as a tool.
Thank you KC for your continuing excellent articles.
2016-11-27 16:53
Posted by xiaotee > Nov 27, 2016 04:53 PM | Report Abuse
KC,
Of course FA analysis cannot guarantee continued good/excellent performance of any company - but it is one of the most important tool, if not the most important, to indicate a company's future health/performance. It is no less a detailed resume' of the entity, in this case the company, even if it is about it's immediate past.Like when a person applies for a job, the potential employer often depends on his resume'( which is his/her past) to make a decision whether the person will be a good and capable employee - there is also no certainty that he/she would be so. FA is actually better than this analogy. If FA indicates the company has lots of FCF, giving consistently growing dividend yields far better than FD returns, a proven honest and clever management, and high ROIC and in a type of business where it may have a moat, the chances of that being a wrong investment is really very low. In fact the reality is the chances of it being a very good investment is very high. Nothing is certain in life and in choices for investment but we can take good calculated risks using FA as a tool.
Thank you KC for your continuing excellent articles.
xiaotee,
Thank you very much for your comment and excellent analogy. You are really a great student of mine in investing. But in life, I have a lot more to learn from you.
2016-11-27 17:12
Posted by coolio > Nov 27, 2016 04:00 PM | Report Abuse
I bought Gadang at very low price and decided to sell when everyone is chasing. You just need to play with the game. Sell when that old man non stop promoting this stock. Just look, he can change from a sell call last week and few days after that make a buy call. Beware
A great investor armed with FA knowledge plus smart behavioral finance.
Well done coolie. Hope to see you in KL.
2016-11-27 17:22
KYY is right. KCChong is also right. Of course, based on their individual perspectives.
Here are some very useful general guides:
Don't speculate. For those who speculate, they will (most probably) lose their money in the end.
Buy when most people (including the experts) are pessimistic and sell when they are optimistic.
Investigate, then invest.
2016-11-27 17:53
Invrstors loves investing in growth companies but it may attract high risks and high gains. Normally, we don't know when the grow or moat ended. Applying golden rules is an effective way to minimise risks for most growth companies in Bursa. Many high growth companies are unlikely to sustain more than 2 years. Better be careful.
2016-11-27 18:20
There are many high growth companies turned into nightmare i.e. IFCA, Connect, Genetec, Frontkn, Gtronic, Opcom, Scable, SIGN, Latitud, FLbhd, Heave, SLP.....
2016-11-27 18:45
Posted by 3iii > Nov 27, 2016 05:53 PM | Report Abuse
KYY is right. KCChong is also right. Of course, based on their individual perspectives.
Here are some very useful general guides:
Don't speculate. For those who speculate, they will (most probably) lose their money in the end.
Buy when most people (including the experts) are pessimistic and sell when they are optimistic.
Investigate, then invest.
YES! 3i IS BACK!
WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?
NOW BETTER GO AND WARN THE SORCHAI IS AIRASIA & AAX, OK?
2016-11-27 20:31
3i. People love high growth companies. Share price can rocket to the moon in short time. Don't compare with decent growth companies i.e. Petdag, Nestle, F&N, Dlady, PBB, LPI....wakaka
Posted by 3iii > Nov 27, 2016 08:19 PM | Report Abuse
>> Posted by Up_down > Nov 27, 2016 06:45 PM | Report Abuse
There are many high growth companies turned into nightmare i.e. IFCA, Connect, Genetec, Frontkn, Gtronic, Opcom, Scable, SIGN, Latitud, FLbhd, Heave, SLP.....<< Their economic moats? Durability of these moats?
2016-11-27 20:33
very obvious KYY took everyone to Holland. After the Gadang AGM, he sang n promoted Gadang and the price went past RM 3.00. Then he said he made a mistake n said the Company will not make good money. following he condemn the company again. Investors panic n price went down.I think he is waiting to pick up around 0.90
2016-11-27 22:04
agree with mr gohkimhock statement "People give you stock tips, but when it don't perform, you call it con. It's better to be hardworking rather than listening to others. Do your homework more."
2016-11-27 22:07
soon, he will say, kcchong = ah_boon = optimus = insulter , we will see the ic of kcchong soon
2016-11-27 22:53
I have no objection you choose xuewen as your ID to confuse the readers here You have the right to do so but at the same time it also shows clearly you are a coward you dare not confront me with facts.
2016-11-28 09:00
The readers here are not stupid. They read your rubbish comments they know you are the coward .
2016-11-28 09:02
You remove all my post with 10 different ID reporting abuse.
Why you are so scare of my comments ?
2016-11-28 09:03
Today you use xuewen to write rubbish . Tomorrow you will use KCCHONG to talk cock here
2016-11-28 09:07
The thing is this when stock going up, someone will claim credit. When down, someone will said when did I recommend you to buy, buy at own risk. I only analyze for you. I never said good or bad. Deny everything if going against him or her .
That typical politicians!!!
Now thinking about tht , kyy not really tht bad at all even though he calls ppl stupids. At least he will openly admit he is wrong and ask ppl sell. He is mOre noble lah.
2016-11-28 23:56
Someone should be politician, not analyze stock! Analyze stock charge ppl few hundreds where can earn big money right
2016-11-28 23:57
Posted by paperplane2016 > Nov 28, 2016 11:56 PM | Report Abuse
The thing is this when stock going up, someone will claim credit. When down, someone will said when did I recommend you to buy, buy at own risk. I only analyze for you. I never said good or bad. Deny everything if going against him or her .
That typical politicians!!!
Now thinking about tht , kyy not really tht bad at all even though he calls ppl stupids. At least he will openly admit he is wrong and ask ppl sell. He is mOre noble lah.
Remember, nobody owes anybody anything in this world. In investing, if he is sharing his knowledge in a public forum like this for free and without any other hidden agenda, thank him if you follow him and make some money. If you don't, and lose money, suck it up and blame yourself for following blindly. That is the very basic about humility.
You can follow anyone you wish to; worship anyone you like, and that is your prerogative.
2016-11-29 04:37
Posted by paperplane2016 > Nov 28, 2016 11:57 PM | Report Abuse
Someone should be politician, not analyze stock! Analyze stock charge ppl few hundreds where can earn big money right
People are all different. For example in this case, one may like to share knowledge, leverage all the goodwill he thinks he has sowed, and at the same time, earn a little reward for all the time and effort he puts in. I have no objection for anyone putting in effort to earn a little honest money, not stealing, nor robbing, for some extra indulgence in life, do you?
Of course there are also greedy people in this world such as some corrupt politicians, whom some people are so admire of. anyone is free to enumerate them. It is individual choice.
But in this world, not everyone only think of becoming very rich, and money is the only thing left.
2016-11-29 04:45
Dear kcchongnz,
Relating to your article "a red flag" on increased in property development costs RM484m vs RM200m (FYE2015), it may not be a red flag after all. The increased mainly attributable to increase in Freehold land RM248.2m can be explained below.
If you review the Annual Reports, on Note 16&30, you will realised that the above increased RM284m (484-200) can be substantially explained by the following:
Dr Cr
Purchase of Semenyih Land RM98.7m Cash
JV on Cyberjaya RM141.m Non-trade Payable
Total RM240.2m
Appreciate your comment if it is still a red flag. Thanks.
2016-11-29 14:21
Posted by sosfinance > Nov 29, 2016 02:21 PM | Report Abuse
Dear kcchongnz,
Relating to your article "a red flag" on increased in property development costs RM484m vs RM200m (FYE2015), it may not be a red flag after all. The increased mainly attributable to increase in Freehold land RM248.2m can be explained below.
If you review the Annual Reports, on Note 16&30, you will realised that the above increased RM284m (484-200) can be substantially explained by the following:
Dr Cr
Purchase of Semenyih Land RM98.7m Cash
JV on Cyberjaya RM141.m Non-trade Payable
Total RM240.2m
Appreciate your comment if it is still a red flag. Thanks.
sosfinance,
The reason I wrote this article is because someone continuously bragging about his golden rule is the only way to make money. That is ok. But repeatedly saying FA is useless is going too far as there is no bloody basis. As you know you and me use FA, and I am doing well, and I believe you are doing well too in your investment. And I have shown all the real super investors in the world are doing extremely well, with data and numbers.
Hence I have no intention to discredit Gadang. What for? Tell you the truth, you probably know a lot more than me about Gadang.
I was trying to show that using FA is useful, for example in this case cash flows of Gadang.
So what I am trying to say is there may be some concern about the cash flows, and I won't chase the share when it is RM3.30, especially someone with huge margin finance having huge position, and kept on promoting it with misleading information, because if something turns bad, the selling and forced selling will be disastrous.
Besides the cash flows is not good.
Development costs under current assets normally is the development cost of ongoing projects; the money spent on the infrastructures, consultant fees, etc. It is part of the working capital. Whereas what you mentioned about is "Land under development", and normally is under the non-current asset. If you spend a lot of money on development cost and you can't sell your property, then there may be some problem. And revenue has been recognized in the development activities, but costs are only capitalized.
That was the way I see it. I have never said I was absolute sure about it. As you know, I am not an accountant.
But I was not condemning the share, but merely raise a concern for others to ponder.
I have no further interest in Gadang, and hence i do not go into details in the annual report. As I have said, you probably know more.
2016-11-29 15:14
KC,
This are the fact and data I hope to get from you but provided by sosfinance instead. A wise man like you can sometimes behave foolish. Do not take the readers here for granted , there are not all novice. Do your homework well before you start your comments on Gadang. Please learn
2016-11-29 15:20
If you really have no intention to discredit Gadang, then you should have limited your discussion on the the price played up and down by the old man KYY . Not on the fundamental aspects that you did not well prepared. Right?
2016-11-29 15:27
I must say if I dont remember wrongly this is the first time I see KCChong was beng hentam by facts n figures
2016-11-29 15:28
You need not have to explain if you do not wish to because you indeed did not owe us anything. Other than this answer I do not think what else can you rationalise your negligence
2016-11-29 15:30
Ok, got it. You raise a valid issue. (This issue is a bit tricky as they increases both the current assets side and liabilities side for RM140m for the JV in Cyberjaya, the balance increase of RM98.7m is merely purchase of Semenyih Land by cash). And I notice many other comments are without "economic substance" hence irrelevant. Example, some said Capital City has been substantially recognised, which on contrary, it was recognised less than 12%!!! (RM220m PAT to go)
Even without new contracts, Gadang results will do better than FYE2015, not because the management said so, it is because, it can be estimated with great certainty.
If we turn back time, if, Gadang smoothened its results, i.e. FYE2015, lower it by RM10m, the PAT will be about RM85m, meeting all analysts expectation, and FYE17Q1 add in RM10m, from RM17m to RM27m, do we think Gadang's economic substance has increased? Only speculators and traders are overly concern about quarterly results.
Sadly, you and I know, most comments are lack of substance (other than a few). Most are arguing about "price-action" instead of the "economic substance" on the Company.
2016-11-29 15:37
Just to add on more pointers to discuss about the "red flag" portion mentioned in this article.
Section 4.15 explain the definition of property development costs which mainly consist of (i) Cost related to Land (ii) Cost related to actual development activity.
In section 16, from the 2 tables (2016 and 2015), we can see the huge increase in total property development cost came from free hold land (
Free hold land 38.9 mil --> 273.3 mil
Lease hold land 65.7 mil --> 60.9 mil
Actual development cost 94.5 mil --> 150.6 mil
For 2016, actual development cost incurred is 153 mil while cost recognized is 96.6 mil. Is this ratio reasonable?
So is Gadang really unreasonably recognized huge property revenue first while leaving huge actual property developemnt cost to be capitalized later, as painted by this article?
I am just learning. I also getting confuse now.
2016-11-29 15:54
SOS finance sifu, I've gathered some info on Capital21, probably your fund manager did not lie to you. I am trying to trim other stocks to accumulate Gadang when it is being sell down by market without any major changes
2016-12-01 11:12
kcchongnz sifu, If the land is "under development" IMHO, it should be classified as Development cost. Only "Land held for development", ie, land bank, then it may be classified as non-current assets. As far as I know, Gadang projects sold well, and they are launching new projects in Laman View. First phase already sold, left 2 units corner lots, and first phase comprise of Prima apartment which the sales are restricted to certain buyers, hence lower margin, and semi PRIMA terrace house, which the CFO of he Company bought one. Now the 2nd phase is under soft launch, and they are free from PRIMA. Though the price range is below RM1 mil per unit, but the size is relatively small, and actually comparable to current market price, which means better margin than the PRIMA house
2016-12-01 11:28
and kcchongnz sifu, I went through a table on the summary of payment to Gadang on by Capital 21. there will be around RM200 mil cash inflows up to 2018. Unless Capital 21 default, it is pretty sure. and on further fiindings, Capital 21 audited accounts is showing net profit in their June 2015 audited accounts, and I guess the profits will be in increasing trend as the project is going on smoothly. Capital 21 is now trying to do a Reverse Take Over in Singapore. I guess they are doing well at the moment which enable them to do so.
2016-12-01 11:42
AS far as profits figures is concerned, so far I have not seen Gadang's report on substantial profits recognised from Capital 21.. it is to the tune of above RM200mil gain, if what shown in Icon sifu articles has not been change. In that article, Icon sifu has gathered the info that Gadang is entitled to around RM300 mil revenue, and the cost of the land is below RM50 mil if my memory didnt fail me. As the Capital 21 mall is schedule to be completed in early 2018, it is predictable that Gadang will report a decent profit figure in the coming financial year.
2016-12-01 11:52
@tksw wow bro u really rajin do your homework. Good good. Thanks for sharing.
2016-12-01 11:54
Whey Whey sifu, shh... for the Laman View Cyber Jaya Maple House project, out of the 94+- soft launch units, 10 units has been reserved by early birds already, if the response is good after their official launching, price will hike 20%-30% for the remaining 100 units in 2nd stages of sales opening Si-beh pandai this Gadang do sales
2016-12-01 12:01
dun need to guess the development cost so high, most probably SOS Finance sifu is right. Cos I called the sales offices directly, Bukit Sena phase 1A oso left corner lot. I think it because they wanna sale higher price. Phase 2 just launch few months ago, about 65% sold. Gadang is very conservative, they do it in stages, slow and steady. Company like that dun go bust
2016-12-01 14:23
As much as I do not wish to break his rice bowl, I must tell you that about 4 years ago, I engaged him to look after my Rm 10 million account with CIMB. I am not sure what was the agreed fees for his work.
He started off by selling all my Latitude Tree and Lii Hen and bought Homeritz. He provided a complete financial analysis of all the furniture companies such as Latitude, Lii Hen, Poh Huat, Hevea and Homeritz.
He considered Homeritz was the best because it had the best return of equity.
As all investors know Latitude went up from Rm 1.00 to above Rm 8.00 within 30 months and Lii Hen went up more than 500% and it is still going up because 100% of its products are exported in US$.
I sacked him because he has no business sense at all. I am not telling you a fairy tale because many people in CIMB know this episode.
2016-12-02 12:04
whoaaa.. this time no more IC... but where work oso come out... KCChong sifu... take care. some ppl just can't be critisized. Gas Volume too small.
2016-12-02 15:21
KCChong sifu, dun border, we know what you tok, laught die me super investor teach ppl see qtrly report dump shares... kakaka
2016-12-02 15:27
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Posted by xuewen > Nov 27, 2016 04:27 PM | Report Abuse
I know sometimes I look like idiot, because I don't care what is FA or TA, KYY is the only wise man in i3, I will follow him no matter what
Calvin replies:
Xuewen,
From all your posts you sound like a total simpleton.
I think the best of action for you life now is to stop buying or selling share immediately.
Then you must go sign up a study course with KcChongNz.
Study with open mind very carefully.
Then after one or two years then come back again.
Or else go buy these books
THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR - By Ben Graham
ONE UP ON WALL STREET
BEATING THE STREET
Last 2 by Peter Lunch
If Peter Lynch is still in the market today he could have bought Gadang at 80 cts & sold all the way from Rm2.00 to Rm3.00
And Peter would wait for Gadang to crash back to 60 cts before getting interested again
Gadang cycled up. And so Gadang will cycle down.
Peter has clearly taught about Cyclicals in his writings
2016-11-27 16:34