kcchongnz blog
Value Investing? Boring! Sien ah! kcchongnz
In my last article in i3investor, I discussed about how I used a value investing strategy of dividend yield and invested in a portfolio of 5 high dividend yield stocks as in the link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/122285.jsp
I got another comment from my regular critic as below,
[Posted by stockmanmy > May 7, 2017 07:47 PM | Report Abuse 
Value investors did not do well this year.
kc also no business.
I hope things will change for the better for him.
in the meantime, I stick to X factor.]
Thank you again, no criticism no fun. And thanks for your “hope that things will change for the better for him”, but no thanks for your “hope”. As you know, I do not depend on hope to do well in investing. For your information, I have written many articles in i3investor and provided with ample evidences that basing on value investing which I have been propagating, I have been doing very well in the long-term, as well as the short-term.
Let’s just put aside what he means by his frequent uttering of “X factor”, whatever it means. It makes me “one head full of dew water”. We don’t need to get stressed on what he means.
But what makes him think that “Value investors did not do well this year”? Is he using value investing, that he has been doing badly this year?
If you read my article above, with a portfolio of 5 Bursa dividend stocks selected and published at the end of 2015 for investing in 2016 and beyond, with detail analysis published in i3investor, based solely on the principles of value investing, gained an average of 67.4%, with approximately the same median return, for the last one-and-a-half-year period as on 30th April 2017 as summarized in link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/122285.jsp
The broad market returned just 3.8% during the same period.
One year short-term return of value investing in Bursa
Exactly one year ago, I started a stock pick service in Bursa for my past course participants. This was discussed in i3investor in the link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/101036.jsp
As all stocks were picked due to their stable earnings and cash flows, and healthy balance sheets and good dividend yields, and picked when they were generally selling at cheap or reasonable prices, the very essence of value investing, the risk involved is naturally very low.
The portfolio of 14 stocks selected progressively over the year made an average return of 16.9% compared to the gain of 3.0% of the broad KLCI index, and the gain of 5.9% of the broader FBMEMAS Index during the same period. The excess return of the portfolio is hence a whopping +13.9%.
The earlier participants of this service who invested in Bursa made an average return of 30% over the past one year as on 30th April 2017, compared to the gain of the market of 3% during the same one year period. The excess return, or alpha, is 27%. The highest return was closed to 40%.
Nine months’ return investing in SGX and HKSE as on 30th April 2017
We also started a foreign stock pick service in SGX and HKSE about nine months ago, again using our value investing strategy which we have discussed in this link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/102200.jsp
The reasons we did that was to assist my course participants to diversify investment regionally, plus at that time, the SGX and HKSE was at much lower valuations than KLSE. The intention was to obtain satisfactory results over a long-term period, and not chasing fast gain over the short period.
For the last nine months since 27th August 2016, a total of 8 stocks were selected progressively by our “Chief Investment Officer” who had been my value investing course participant, and practice his value investing strategies to pick stocks. We also have a couple more past participants of my value investing course contributing to the service.
After 9 months have passed as on 30th April 2017, the average return of the portfolio of 8 stocks selected progressively returned 34.0% in nine months, with a substantial higher median return of 52%. These returns out-performed the 10.4% and 7.4% of the broad index of SGX and HKSE respectively during the same period by miles ahead.
There were a few high return stocks; Sungningdale at +63.5% in 8 months, Avitech +76.4% in 7 months, Fischer Tech at +69% in 3 months, and Valuetronics +52.3% in 6 months.
Most interestingly, there is not a single loser in the stocks selected. This fit very well in our principle of,
“Take care of the downside; the upside will take care of itself”
This return on investing in the stocks above has not taken into consideration gain in foreign exchange over the period.
A few participants early in this service made 40% to 60% total return in the nine months’ period, beating the return of the broad market of 8.9% by a wide margin. The later participants also made more than 20% in less than 6 months.
Thanks to the Chief analyst cum Investment Officer of this service, a fervent follower of value investing.
So how can you say, “Value investors did not do well this year.” What evidence do you have?
I have written many articles in i3investor using value investing strategy, until many people already fed up of reading them. Sien Ahh!
But why should one feel “sien” about value investing?
I have shown value investing works very well in the long-term with my latest article here,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/120190.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/119863.jsp
I have also just shown you value investing also works extremely well in the short-term in this article.
Apa lagi lu mau?
To me, value investing is not "sien", but very interesting indeed. I never feel sien in propagating value investing, although at times it can be a little frustrating.
Value investing is, either you get it, or don't get it at all.
If you are convinced about the usefulness of value investing, which I have shown you again and again that it works and works very well, and wish to learn about value investing to make extra-ordinary return for the long term in more predictable way, or if you wish to get some help to invest in Bursa right now while learning, please contact me at,
ckc14invest@gmail.com
K C Chong
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Discussions
13 people like this. Showing 50 of 142 comments
kc and raider are not much different from JJPTR.
Got evidence in the bottom 10 portfolios of this year ibot 230 portfolio still cannot accept the evidence.
Am I the only one saying the Emperor wears no clothes?
I call that...totally and completely brain washed can no longer see reality.
2017-05-14 13:28
do not forget...despite all the smooth talking ......evidence suggest kc and raider way of doing things will land you near the bottom of this year's stock market performance.
2017-05-14 13:30
stockmanmy kc and raider are not much different from JJPTR.
Got evidence in the bottom 10 portfolios of this year ibot 230 portfolio still cannot accept the evidence.
Am I the only one saying the Emperor wears no clothes?
I call that...totally and completely brain washed can no longer see reality.
The return of my portfolio is 16.1% in 4 months and 2 weeks.
"Accountant", go ahead and calculate how much RM100000 will balloon to using the annualized return of this portfolio in 30 years.
Prove to us that you have at least worked as an accounts clerk before that you know how to calculate. I have already given you 14 hours to do that.
Then we know who wears clothes and who doesn't.
2017-05-14 13:49
anyone who cannot have independent thinking
anyone who needs kc to feed you popular memes
you don't get success.
it is that simple.
no different from JJPTR if you have to contribute to JJPTR , you deserve what you get.
2017-05-14 13:54
why ?
is it because JJPTR boss is handsome?
because kc sells popular memes?
2017-05-14 14:17
OLD MAN MAMMY GO AND REST IN PEACE LAH
IF YOU WANT COMPANY, ASK THE VERY OLD MAN TO JOIN YOU.
2017-05-14 14:29
Investing is long term wealth building, if you insist on judging 1km outcome from the 42km finishing line as the runner performance, you can go fly kite and plp. Newbie like me know even this basic. This Baru called independent thinking, not con by your dynamite or x Sorchai factor. Empty n loudest tin is Mr Manny.
2017-05-14 14:36
Beary, cheoky, kc, calvin, pauper( goodname)
value investors my foot....the correct description for brain washed people like you are losers....pure and simple.
Just look at the bottom 10 portfolios in ibot 230 portfolios.....all having the same stocks with same characteristics you and the popular memes have been promoting in i3 all these years.
Successful investors have learn the power of X factor long long ago.
2017-05-14 21:07
am I the only one to say the Emperor wears no clothes?
Look at the details , the compositions of the bottom 10 portfolios in the ibot 230 portfolios....all KC types of value investing.
2017-05-14 21:17
Hi KC, Can you please elaborate a little on the NAV of a portfolio you just mentioned. What does this NAV tell us,how to calculate it and apply to our investment.
2017-05-14 21:18
kc have managed to hand pick all the dead and non performing stocks of 2017......congratulations, kc.
2017-05-14 21:19
kc is grasping straws and creating excuses for his under performance....pure and simple.
Posted by cheahsk > May 14, 2017 09:18 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, Can you please elaborate a little on the NAV of a portfolio you just mentioned. What does this NAV tell us,how to calculate it and apply to our investment.
2017-05-14 21:24
nothing else to offer?
Icon8818 > May 14, 2017 09:26 PM | Report Abuse
sorhai mammy! buntut ayam! terus membebel
nanti mati la lu bunuh diri macam optimus!
2017-05-14 21:28
icon8818
I know two other persons , besides kc , get worshipped like that before...1 MDB's fatty and JJPTR fatty.
2017-05-14 21:30
i think i really ought to work harder to be superrich who can buy 30% of jaks, if not i will be consider as low class investor
2017-05-14 22:00
You got the right spirit to be successful....may the X factor be with you.
popo92 > May 14, 2017 10:00 PM | Report Abuse
i think i really ought to work harder to be superrich who can buy 30% of jaks, if not i will be consider as low class investor
2017-05-14 22:04
cheahsk Hi KC, Can you please elaborate a little on the NAV of a portfolio you just mentioned. What does this NAV tell us,how to calculate it and apply to our investment.
I was trying to find out if that "accountant" is really one he claimed to be. alas, he can't even calculate simple compounding.
It was just a test to find out fake accountant, and it works.
A 16.1% in about 4 months will have an annualized return of about 48%. If, only if, the portfolio with that net asset value, NAV, grows by 48% in 30 years, it will grow to RM12.8 billion. That would be the highest return anyone can get in history!
So, what is wrong with my portfolio which returns 16.1% in 4 and a half months?
I am not saying the portfolio can grow at that fantastic rate for 30 years, but the question was posted to someone who bark and bark and claimed that he is an accountant. But can you believe, he can't even compute!
Even if my return so far is just half of that, say 8%, the annualized return would be about 24%. The RM100000 will grow to RM63.5m in 30 years. I would be better than the best long-term return, someone like Walter Schloss.
So "accountant", what is wrong with my return so far?
Why do you need to bark and bark?
2017-05-14 22:39
Manmy, why not you post an article regarding how you utilize your dynamic and X factor for stock pick. Let every one open their eye to see you powerful X factor Lol.
2017-05-14 23:07
kc
A more honest assessment from you would be to admit your portfolio has under performed the rest of the ibot portfolios...and looking at the other bottom 10 portfolios as well, the last few months have not been good to value investors.....but the future nobody knows....not even stockmanmy....even stockmanmy cannot write any guarantee.
But to seek honesty from a salesman is rather peculiar.
2017-05-14 23:08
I have 5400 posts and several dozen blogs.....we can discuss on any of those blogs and posts any time if only you point them out to me.
Tai KT > May 14, 2017 11:07 PM | Report Abuse
Manmy, why not you post an article regarding how you utilize your dynamic and X factor for stock pick. Let every one open their eye to see you powerful X factor Lol.
2017-05-14 23:11
stockmanmy I have 5400 posts and several dozen blogs.....we can discuss on any of those blogs and posts any time if only you point them out to me.
Actually it is really incredible. In the 5400 postings and several dozen blogs (?????), you only do three things,
1) Talk cock, barking
2) Ridiculing any value investor
3) PLP,PLP big time!
so what else to point to you?
2017-05-14 23:25
paperplane2016 Kc. How you view steel sector now? Appreciate your inputs
I am no expert in the steel sector, sorry. I personally do not like this type of high capex and competitive industry. There are many who make good money though investing in this kind of stocks, but that was from a year ago.
I personally have made some money, not for myself, but for a friend, on Choo Bee. I find Choo Bee is different. It has consistent earnings and cash flows, and a very healthy balance sheet, with potential of positive corporate exercise. It is a low risk investment in that sense.
2017-05-14 23:54
Once upon a time, many many years ago I came across this equation
Share price = existing business + X factor.
All too obvious but it allows a way to value any share, no matter how high, how speculative it is.
As an accountant, we have no problem valuing an existing business but we have no way to make sense of more than 60% of the shares traded and the valuations given by the market.
The eureka moment comes when we accountants started to pay attention to the X factor and what the market is doing. My universe suddenly expands and I see more opportunities than before..
Mentally, we have to split between the existing business and the future business ( and X factors) given by the market cap and try to make sense of it and our opinions. It is a very powerful tool which I have employed. It adds clarity.
If you want to trade, you trade the X factor...others may call it the catalysts. If you want to invest, you also have to consider the X factors, not just the audited accounts and existing business.
X of course means anything that is unknown but knowable in future., or any proposals or acquisitions or changes in micro or macro environment.
If you look at kc work....he has almost exclusively devoted his work to the audited accounts , that is very silly isn't it?
And if you need just one book to improve your performance, I do not hesitate to recommend you to William O Neil's Book and his CANSLIM methodology. ...warning....it is not your typical value investors hand book.
(Google it yourself)
I think this forum has too much of Warren Buffalo and his bluffology already.
I think, at the end of the day...it is really about mind set and where you should emphasis and devote your energy.....remember 20% of the good effort produces 80% of the results.
Value investors keep talking about buying discounted assets and discounts prices...I say baloney, that is not how the market works 99% of the time.
Tai KT > May 14, 2017 11:20 PM | Report Abuse
pls post your X Factor or repost to I3, Dont wait.
2017-05-14 23:59
stockman ..suggest you rename yourself as X-Men
at least it sounds more powerful..he he
2017-05-15 00:01
Well. High capex yes. But seldom low capex in other industry nowadays also. Unless for IT?
2017-05-15 00:02
Which sector kc you think worth looking for next year? I will avoid mfrs 9 impact companies like finance industry, insurance etc.
Property sector still no no for me also.
Plantation nothing surprise, some with new production in maturing stage might see higher profits only.
Other like IT, semiconductor might be ok I guess? And some sector to benefit from China De overcapacity like steel, metal, tin etc?
Other than this, low capex I can think of maybe is Johotin now. Others like aeoncr also need keep on asking capital once business expanding fast. Transportation need to have more cars, more drivers to expand business etc.
2017-05-15 00:10
isn't Choo Bee a typical value trap?
I avoid this kind of share all the time.
a steel trader, no competitive advantage, no catalyst, no X factor, showing declining revenue, the company is in the process of downsizing....typical value investor stock.
2017-05-15 00:12
go and buy Choo Bee and come back tell me the result in one year time.
probability > May 15, 2017 12:01 AM | Report Abuse
stockman ..suggest you rename yourself as X-Men
at least it sounds more powerful..he he
2017-05-15 00:13
X-men...you are right...its x-factor is the export potential....suggest you look into Mycron as you seem to like cscsteel
Posted by stockmanmy > May 15, 2017 12:13 AM | Report Abuse
go and buy Choo Bee and come back tell me the result in one year time.
probability > May 15, 2017 12:01 AM | Report Abuse
stockman ..suggest you rename yourself as X-Men
at least it sounds more powerful..he he
2017-05-15 00:19
Mycron's steel tubes had expanded overseas... if you see their steel tube products (refer catalogs) - its of international standards unlike Choo Bee...but imagine if even Choo Bee is already exploring Foreign markets...
2017-05-15 00:24
no harm VenFx...at least we dont leave the reasons (for promoting) mysterious like x-factor..he he
2017-05-15 00:38
VenFx...seriously you did not have to delete your postings done in a sincere manner...telling your opinions which are sincere to yourself...unless KC dont like...but im sure he faham2 as we dont do it always...
2017-05-15 00:40
Hehe, no problem probability sifu.
I say what I thought sometimes.
Thx for remind also.
2017-05-15 00:42
Manmy, if u hv time pls share some info on ONE BELT ONE ROAD impact to the region and the industry. As I believe this is a great great catalyst that going to stir up many sectors for 10-50yrs.
1 路1带 可旺 千年。No kidding :)
2017-05-15 00:45
Manmy sometimes too imaginative, and need to be more diversify lar...
So, help me up manmy sifu.
I believe in his knowledge, when he is not play it biasly.
2017-05-15 00:47
We have to assume what can go up will keep going up until the market turns bearish...and a lot of people holds on to their shares nervously and tries too hard to time the market.
That is why I believe most people under performs their ibot portfolio because people tends to sell too early and leaves too much on the table...I have to admit I am amongst those very quilty of selling too early.
Luckily, I have X power to help me get back in without leaking too much and also I made a lot of money earlier this year on Jaks and Sendai which gave me the courage.
y VenFx > May 15, 2017 12:17 AM | Report Abuse
Manmy, One belt One Road and China's determination to level up its Major Tech as a global player at least can Cheer for the region for 10-20 years.
2017-05-15 00:50
Choo Bee is just a trader, buy and sell and principally to housing developers....nothing there.
by probability > May 15, 2017 12:24 AM | Report Abuse
Mycron's steel tubes had expanded overseas... if you see their steel tube products (refer catalogs) - its of international standards unlike Choo Bee...but imagine if even Choo Bee is already exploring Foreign markets...
2017-05-15 01:00
you are incorrect X-men...it has two segments - trading and tubes manufacturing. My message is...if even Choo Bee is already exploring Foreign market with its simple low end tubes...what about Mycron of international API, ANSI, DIN standards?
2017-05-15 01:06
Mycron looks good except it is a Bumi company. But this round, I also have Mycron
Steel manufacturing companies benefit from lower prices of raw materials, relieve from Megasteel monopoly and duty protection.
Choo Bee suffers from stock losses as prices come down and disappearance of their developers market in 2017.
Steel shares mostly look good ...even Hiap Tek and YKG can show turn around this year. Steel shares I have are Mycron, CSC, Ann Joo and Hiap Tek.
2017-05-15 01:09
KC Chong is well known for his attack on KYY. Has i3 members heard about him in real life? Where can find his name ah? We know him as 1 of the boastful i3 forumers. How rich is him?
2017-05-15 04:35
So we better agree on who make more money.
Posted by probability > May 14, 2017 11:57 PM | Report Abuse
ha ha...KC always have a different opinion than KYY..
2017-05-15 04:40
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kcchongnz
stockraider RAIDER NOT TRY TO CONVINCE MAMMY.....BUT RAIDER DON WANT HIM TO MISLEAD.....INVESTORS....THAT VALUE INVESTMENT IS LOUSY LOH...!!
IT IS HIGHLY ESSENTIAL....ESPECIALLY NEWBIES TO GET HIS GROUNDING RIGHT LOH.....!!
That is what I consider good sharing, noble intention, and from a well verse investor.
2017-05-14 11:40