kcchongnz blog
Insas: How Value can be Unlocked? kcchongnz
I would like to reiterate that this is just sharing of an investment thesis. I don’t promote share and ask anyone to buy. I never do, and I don’t have to. You are welcomed to comment on the subject matter, good or bad.
In my last article, I was sharing a deep value investing strategy and an important theoretical concept in finance, arbitrage, using Insas as example in the link below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/216003.jsp
It attracted a lot of comments, mostly, if not all are negative comments, except for a couple of usual die-hard fans of Insas. Thank you very much for all your comments. Here I would like to take the opportunity to provide my view on some of the feedback, and that is all, no more post about Insas.
I use a few investing strategies to invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, the main strategies are high dividend yield investing strategy, the Magic Formula of buying good stocks (high ROC) at cheap price (high EBIT/EV), deep value investing like Insas and Jobnext, and even growth investing. Each of them has its own advantages and pitfall. I have written each and every one of them in i3investor for the last 6 years.
Why investment bankers don’t buy Insas? That never came into my mind as I do not follow institutional investors and investment bankers to buy stocks, although I know many of them are very well educated and good in their analysis, knowing that they have their own interest and their institutional limitations in mind. They are the chasers of quarterly earnings, maybe the followers of the “Golden Rule”, like most people here. There is nothing wrong about it. Hence, I did not speculate the reason why they are not interested. In any case, I don’t think one can earn extra-ordinary return from investing following the crowd. Hence, I dwell in my own field in investing. I also have written a long article, “Investing along the forgotten and beaten track” about it here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/120190.jsp
I did speculate a couple of reasons why they are not interested in the previous post if one really pay attention to read and understand it, that they cannot stomach under-performance for short period of time as they will quickly lose their clients, and Insas can be one which may take long time for its value to be realized, that they may not have the mandate to buy this type of stocks, they look foolish doing so, etc. In anyway, if investment bankers are in, we can’t expect Insas to be traded at more than 70% below its quality net asset value anymore. Oh yeah, one can’t compare quality asset in cash and financial assets to low quality assets such as intangible assets, Shopping mall where shoppers have abandoned them, Receivables which we don’t know how much can be realized, or inventories which may be out-dated, or no one wants to buy such as that of Parkson etc. That is obvious.
As to the comment on if Insas can realize the price of their marked to market securities. It will be foolish to assume that if they sell their cash in bank and money market fund (the bulk of it here), they get a discount for it. Sure, go and check if the cash is genuine or not as it is important. But think about it, why would Insas cheats on the cash balance? A red chip company which wants to give the impression of its high cash level to fool investors buying its stocks?
What about listed securities, mostly in Inari shares? Well, if they have to sell in big volume in the open market, sure the price will drop badly. Yes, a kid also knows as someone said. But what if it is a negotiated block deal? I don’t know as controlled block of shares often is sold at premium too, but rarely in discount. What about the comment that Inari share is overvalued at PE 20, and that it should be PE 10, or even 5? I don’t know also as it was trading at PE 30 not long ago also. There are a number of former investment bankers in this thread, they know better than me. But I don’t know, and that is why I just use the market value of the share now. To me that is the best prediction of its share price according to the random walk theory. Yes, it is theory again. I may be wrong.
Most of the analysis data I use in my investing is the recent past and the present data. I am not good at predicting earnings, cash flows and competitions, especially in 5 years and 10 years in the future. You will be able to make a lot of money if you are very good in doing so. However, there is a wealth of research showing that even most professional analysts had been very bad in making forecast. Few of them even can’t predict the earnings and cash flows in the next couple of years. I am just a part time investor, so I stay away from that. In my growth investing, I do a little forecast in future earnings in a more conservative way and try to find out the intrinsic value of a stock, and if the price is above its intrinsic value, even for a fantastic company, I still won’t buy it.
In Insas’s case which is following a deep asset value investing strategy, I don’t deal with forecast; firstly I honestly don’t know, secondly I don’t need to in this strategy, thirdly if Insas, on top of its deep asset value, also has good future earnings and cash flow, simple logic will tell you it won’t be traded at such big discount of 72% to its asset value, and perhaps the price would have been 72% above its net asset value. Furthermore, I don’t even deal with what its return on capital is which I always do for most of my other type of investment strategy. In deep asset value investing, it is all about what assets it has, what are the quality of assets, and what is the value compared to its price, and most of all, what if something goes wrong, and what is the margin of safety? A 72% MOS is not the same as a 30% MOS. But of course, if you think one should go about forecasting its earnings and cash flows 10 years down the road for every investment strategy, go ahead and do it. But bear in mind, there are many ways of doing things by different people, and many people are very successful following Frank Sinatra in “I did it my way”. I myself am satisfy with my return on investing in the stock market. By the way, this my way. Please don’t follow mine.
Insas invested in several start-ups and small technology companies since many years ago. Most start-ups failed, the same for Insas’s, that is the nature of this type of investments, but if they are successful, the reward would be many folds. One of them is Inari. More important is whether they lose a lot of money in those failed ventures and I don’t think it is the case.
Anyway, let us come back to speculate, read my lips, it is “speculate”, on how the deep asset value of Insas could be unlocked.
How value of Insas could be unlocked?
Many investors found frustrating investing in deep asset value stocks with the persistence of undervaluation for a long time. Most investors are not patient enough and would just give up and walk away, while a few diehard value investors remain patient to wait for its value to be unlocked.
What gives a diehard value investor confidence that value will be unlocked so that he can realize the profit expected from his investment? There are different kinds of value stocks, and the precise answer is different. But the answer lies in one word: catalysts.
A catalyst for a stock is a revelation or event that propels the price of an undervalued stock dramatically. It can be anything: a privatization, a spin-off, an earnings report, a positive analyst report or earnings revision, a new product announcement, announcements of a special dividend, stock buyback, an offer to buy a company or merge, a management change, institutions start realizing its value and invest in it, a move by an activist investor, etc.
Below are some speculations on how the value of Insas could be unlocked.
Management can increase the dividend payment annually, or declaration of special dividend, stock dividend, or carries out share buyback, which it can easily do so with the cash and cash equivalent it possesses. Many investors do look for dividend as a recurring income in their investments. A yield matching the fixed deposit rate will certainly great. Dividend distribution also gives a positive signal to investors. It is a positive action to maximising shareholder value. In the most recent year, Insas did increase its dividend to 2 sen.
The presence of an activist investor, or a group of investors with deep pocket could use his/their own cash or carry out a risk arbitrage, if possible, to acquire most of the outstanding shares from the market and go for a General Offer and privatizes the company. All they need is RM530m which has been discussed in my previous post. If that happens, all shareholders will benefit as the share price would go up due to the fight for control, or a GO at a fair price. However, a hostile bidder typically encounters many difficulties when engaging in a hostile takeover. Corporate boards usually have mechanisms or a wide range of defences already in place to resist it. These include poison pill, Golden parachute, greenmail, Pac-man, or the use of a White knight.
Insas has been investing in a number of start-ups and new companies, and the only one which is successful is Inari, and the rest are mostly loss making, although the amount of capitals involved are small ad negligible. Who knows if they strike another gold mine later like that of Inari?
Insas could also carry out a restructuring exercise such as selling off its business with losses or low profitability such as the car rental, luxurious goods segment etc which are hampering the growth of the whole company. This will also act as a catalyst. With the proceeds of the sale of some of these under-performing assets, perhaps the company can increase its dividend payment. Better still with the proceeds, acquire some companies with better growth and profitability prospect.
Other speculations are what if the analysts and investment bankers change their mind and they start to write about Insas and institutional investors realize there is indeed huge value in Insas and start buying them? Or a foreign institutional investor starts to accumulate the shares and Thong got panic? What if Inari got its 5G or many other contracts and its business flies to sky, and investors give it a PE of 30 like what it has given to it recently?
An investor may be able to identify a potential catalyst that can unlock the value. But the timing is still not known. A typical horizon can be of two-three years but can sometimes be as high as five years from now. Assuming an investor of Insas is very confident that the share price of Insas could rise to RM2.00, 40% below its net asset value in the next few years due to its grossly undervaluation, if the holding period is one year, this will mean a 150% compounded annual return (CAR); for two years, it will mean 58% CAR, 36% for three years, 26% for four years, and 20% for five years. These CAR are considered as very good as compared to the return of the broad KLCI of CAR of about 6%. What if it takes 10 years? The CAR is still good at 10%. Note the above assumes Insas does not make a sen for the future from now and its balance sheet stays the same, although for the past 10 years, it has grown its book value by 9% a year compounded.
What gives comfort and holding power to the value investor is that he knows what he is waiting for and how long the wait might be.
But for those who are not comfortable with this type of stock, and most of you are, just avoid it. You will be happier, and happiness is what you should seek for in life.
What we discuss here is all speculation, maybe for once we follow what this chap says here,
[Posted by qqq3 > Jul 20, 2019 2:11 PM | Report Abuse 
talk no use. Lets see 1 year, 5 years, 10 years later.]
Sayonara Insas さよなら
KC Chong
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 50 of 233 comments
kc...tell me why people like u reads a few books then already want to choose this profession?
nothing else better to do meh?
2019-07-24 21:42
kc...billion $ industry meh? u want a share of the billion $ industry?
how many must die in your hands first?
2019-07-24 21:44
That's why LENO appeared today, shouting loudly, in high tone,
to lure newbies to buy INSAS. (LENO sold)
2019-07-24 23:25
kc...I know people who made lots of money from share market. They come from all walks of life, all kinds of professions.
I also know of people who paid lots of money to teachers, attend seminars and lost lots of money.................
moral of the story...difficult to find common denominators.
but sure as hell, no education is better self education, by intelligent people and ready ....if not ready and being pushed or lured by others sure lose money one.................
people can buy same same time and have very different results..........
me? I think the secret is this..............investments is buying good quality shares and have the patience to see the company perform, keep growing and growing................every thing else is speculation./ trading........................................if intelligent enough and ready, no need to pay anybody any fees.
Professionals are different...............professionals can pay for research................but that is one professional dealing with another professional on equal footings..............and both are ready.
no coercion, no lop sided relationship, and no student - teacher relationship...........
2019-07-25 00:26
Hahahaha
qqq3, are you suffering from Masochistic personality disorder? If you like to be beaten up to a pulp, do it elsewhere. People are tired watching you so badly beaten up in the arena of i3 intelligent discourse. What are you trying to prove; your big bank account, your stupidity, your jealousy, your ignorance, your comedy, your PLP, your talk 3 talk 4 talk cock????? Please do your cycling and go get some medical help.
2019-07-25 07:16
sslee
its ok one....There will be at least one intelligent chap in a public forum...........
2019-07-25 07:31
but SS right about cycling...........my favorite topic and hobby....Spend hours cycling and watching videos of cycling in Holland.
because Holland is a cycling nation, I nominate Dutch as most civilised people in the world...........but don't go holland, small cap.
2019-07-25 09:46
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 12:46 AM | Report Abuse
the relationship between between a beginner and a seminar leader/ subscription service is a lop sided one....Or as in the case of OTB, final decision is yours, but you know I have made millions and you nothing......U should know what to do.............
Ans :
I conduct my training course once in a year due to request from my subscribers and public.
There are many engineers, accountants, doctors, company directors and etc attending my training course.
I told them that I feel very shy to teach all these professionals.
They just answer me
Quote
I do not care it is white cat or black cat, can catch a rat is a good cat.
Unquote
They told me they wish to learn from me because of my good records and the big profits I made from KLSE.
They are recommended to attend because many of my students recommend them to attend.
Many time I have my dinner in the restaurant, many time someone paid the bill for me without informing me.
Why ?
They appreciate my effort to help them.
There are many engineers, accountants, doctors, company directors and etc subscribed to my article every year.
They are richer than qqq3,
they are more honest than qqq3,
they are more humble than qqq3,
they have better social standing than qqq3.
Do you think that they are stupid to attend my training course and subscribe to my article ?
They are smart people judging from their social standing.
qqq3 keep on or continue to bad mouth me will not affect my social standing.
Thank you to make me more famous indirectly.
qqq3, I used my last finger already beat you flat.
Want to challenge me, wait for next life.
2019-07-25 09:47
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jul 25, 2019 9:47 AM | Report Abuse
qqq3, I used my last finger already beat you flat.
Want to challenge me, wait for next life.
=========
that explains why u choose to be a small conman instead of leading a normal dignified life.
u think stock market is 1+1 = 2 meh?
never heard even Forest Gump can make millions?
2019-07-25 12:35
a guesstimate...........I must have trade , maybe 300 counters in last 5 years...........why these 8 ?
2019-07-25 14:39
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?
2019-07-25 14:44
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 2:34 PM | Report Abuse
u know where he dig all that them from meh? I don't.
maybe it shows, speculate / trade better than buy and hold because my portfolio went from $ 50,000 to $ 350,000 in last 5 years.........
You know with 12111 comments in i3investor, and that is only with the nick of qqq3, not including comments with other nicks such as Desa6769, Brightsmart, Loneranger, Stockmanny, etc,
1) People know what stocks you bought. We don't know the price you sold and whether you made money or not, although you claimed you had, months later that you claimed you had sold them. But we know what are the prices of those stocks now, and how badly they have tanked, everyone of them,and yet you claimed you had made money. A true "pro"indeed. Only thing is we don't know you are a "pro" of cheating, or pro of trading. We do know the pros in trading is less than 5% in the market. May be, who knows, you are one of them. Hack, we don't even know the method or process of your trading.
2) Those who are long in i3investor know what stocks you have touted in i3investor, and asked people here to sailang and margin, and the prices like Jaks and Sendai tanked by more than two thirds now.
3) Even those stocks tanked and newbies and beginners lost their pants, as the stocks prices of those stocks fell relentlessly, yet you claimed you have made killings for numerous rounds. That you have revealed the kind of person you are; manipulative, ruthless, as long as you make money, you will do everything hurting others. You have exposed your character in shameless PLP rich people and aim to benefit from that, but at the same time scorning and cursing all others, including many sincerely sharing knowledge and experience.
4) From your comments, people know details of your life and your family. How much you have(but confusing as sometimes you said you have RM100k, and later RM50k, what your children do, even though classifying one as an "änalyst"" although he have just gone through the first year of CFA programme, their salaries, where you live, how many cars and parking lot you have or don't have, your previous job as an "accountant", though I cannot fathom the knowledge that you are so lacked of doing your job.
2019-07-25 15:41
qqq3 needs to see a doctor otherwise he will be in Tanjong Rambutan.
Capital is 100k, now say 50k, never trust qqq3.
Do not waste your time with this sick man.
2019-07-25 15:48
TanDavid88 > Jul 25, 2019 3:48 PM | Report Abuse
qqq3 needs to see a doctor otherwise he will be in Tanjong Rambutan.
Capital is 100k, now say 50k, never trust qqq3.
Do not waste your time with this sick man.
=======
the bottom in my present account is about $ 50,000 in 2014, it was $ 100k when I first appeared in i3...............now...$ 350,000...if it can repeat at that rate, I will be rich like kyy when I am 80.....hoping but not sure one............
2019-07-25 15:58
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 2:44 PM | Report Abuse X
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?
2019-07-25 16:00
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 3:54 PM | Report Abuse
kc...what I have shared about myself is out of various casual conversation......but not relevant to what I say about u and OTB...2 little con men.
Conman?
I can easily show you are a big conman, not little but big, which I have shown numerous time on how you conned newbies and beginners to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai and you have profited again and again. Actually no need to show, you told everyone here numerous times.
Can you elaborate how I am a "conman" with specifics? or is it "änticonman" because I have exposed a conman of you?
2019-07-25 16:03
TanDavid88 > Jul 25, 2019 3:48 PM | Report Abuse
n Tanjong Rambutan.
===========
not Tanjong Rambutan but habit of having contrarian views is useful for everybody.
2019-07-25 16:06
Can you elaborate how I am a "conman" with specifics?
my answer to that question.......
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?
2019-07-25 16:09
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Can you elaborate how I am a "conman" with specifics?
my answer to that question.......
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?
A teacher, whether he teaches science or art, or the right way of investing, is a definitely a dignified career. I had had great teachers in my school and university days.
An accountant is also a dignified profession, of course not if you do hanky panky stuff and got sacked and banned from the profession. That is incredibly "Undignified".
Investment bankers and remisiers can also be a dignified career if they can help investors to build long-term wealth with low risk.
2019-07-25 16:16
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?
Obviously OTB has a dignified job as many of his investors praise him. Even your master admires him because he had advised him not to invest in Jaks and Sendai as touted by you. His regret is listened to you instead of OTB.
2019-07-25 16:21
kc..........you should add........stock market education , billion $ industry some more..........
I think I have had enough of this topic, for now.
2019-07-25 16:28
kc...I traded with about 300 counters last few years ( guesstimate)...not just Jaks / Sendai...............
2019-07-25 17:06
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
There are many people involve in this investing industry. It is not a matter of if someone is involved in this industry is a person with dignity, or if this industry is a dignified or not dignified. It is how one carries himself.
A person who is involves in this industry has dignity because,
1. He teaches people to invest in the right way, and to me, it has to be treating investing in stock like investing in part of a business.
2. He teaches them to avoid the pitfalls of investing, understand risks
3. He teaches them not to do risky things such as using margin finance, or swinging for the fence
4. He teaches them not to follow stock tips from anybody, rumours, and hypes.
5. He teaches them to invest in good companies, how to determine if a company is good or bad. And only invest if it is a good company selling at reasonable price, or a mediocre company at a great price.
6. Invest for long term, long term doesn’t mean holding a stock for long term, and not trading stocks.
Another person who has absolutely no dignity.
1. He touts stocks for himself or hand-in-hand with manipulators
2. He encourages newbies and beginners to sailing stocks
3. He relentlessly touting them to use margin
4. He glorifies his trading adventure and encourage others to do the same
5. He talks quality but trade rubbish stocks
6. He touts others to buy a stock and sell at the back and then proclaim he has made a killing
7. He PLP the rich and scorn all others who share their knowledge
Question, which resembles you and which resemble me?
2019-07-25 17:09
re jaks and sendai...the relevant question to ask is............would jaks and Sendai have drop to 50 sen and 40 sen respectively if there is no selling by a 30% shareholder over a few months...........
kc..so it is more about technical reasons and not that u are so smart.................
2019-07-25 17:18
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
kc.......shares with syndicates such as OTB/KYY shares.......u must know when to in and out if u want to have any thing to do with OTB shares......................
what has that to do with education except one sentence?
What is that to do with education?
I can tell you for sure none of those who have learnt from me would have been cheated by you when you were shouting margin and sailang Jaks and Sendai.
2019-07-25 17:34
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
what has that to do with education except one sentence?
If someone has learnt from me about investing, or even just read my articles on them in i3investor, instead of listening to PLP thingy from someone else, he would not got himself burnt so badly to the tune of more than RM100m.
2019-07-25 17:37
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
kc.......shares with syndicates such as OTB/KYY shares.......u must know when to in and out if u want to have any thing to do with OTB shares...
In Jaks and Sendai case, if you knew it is a syndicate play, why you enticed those newbies and beginners to sailang and margin on them, and you at the back sold to them and caused them to lose their pants?
2019-07-25 17:39
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:18 PM | Report Abuse
re jaks and sendai...the relevant question to ask is............would jaks and Sendai have drop to 50 sen and 40 sen respectively if there is no selling by a 30% shareholder over a few months...........
kc..so it is more about technical reasons and not that u are so smart.................
So what do you think the reasons for the big shareholders selling Jaks and Sendai at such a huge loss?
Is it because they are great stocks, or is it because he finally knew they were rubbish stocks touted by you?
2019-07-25 18:03
kcchongnz > Jul 25, 2019 6:03 PM | Report Abuse
Is it because they are great stocks, or is it because he finally knew they were rubbish stocks touted by you?
======
I so powerful one meh? I tout and kyy buys, the whole world buys?
lurk talks about computer , kc chong from nz is the computer.
2019-07-25 19:06
this kc chong from nz...for 2-3 years only know how to talk about Jaks and Sendai ( and now stupid Insas) want to consider himself stock market man............
kc...u think all Malaysians idiots? go back to sleepy NZ lah..............
2019-07-25 23:15
Dear i3lurker,
I actually wrote an article in my blog on how I cried when I learn that my colleague and good friend is on MAS MH 17.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/178025.jsp
Thank you
2019-07-28 20:01
How could value trap, when raider already make a few rounds in insas, ptaras and analab leh ??
If u r practioner of margin of safety, the probability of value trap over 3 yrs cycle is very low mah...!!
The risk of holding on overvalue Nestle at PE 50x with dividend yield of slightly above 1% pa is very much higher loh...!!
Posted by 3iii > Jul 29, 2019 4:07 PM | Report Abuse
Stockraider's value traps.
It is easy to learn of stockraider's recommendations. He had a lot of discussion with my fellow friend, Simple Soul in another blog and these were all part of the conversations raider had with Simple Soul.
It should be obvious to all that raider is full of hot air but when you actually does a thorough analysis of his claims, they all come to nothing.
I feel sad for him as he seems to be full of himself but rarely accepts constructive criticisms based on facts. Often, he twists and turns.
These have been the patterns for years.
Never mind, I learn a lot from raider's mistakes and for these I should be thankful.
2019-07-29 20:10
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y kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2019 6:34 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo, you don't even realize how stupid you are.
==========
sure...U need students so no critical comments for KC Chong from NZ..........
KC...the way u write and choose your profession , u must think only u know about share market..............
truth is...only u and your kind are arrogant enough to choose this profession..............
warren buffet need paid students meh?
2019-07-24 21:38