Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Will the stock market crash? - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Tue, 18 Feb 2014, 11:02 AM
Koon Yew Yin
0 1,417
An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
This is an extract of Joel Kurtzman’s interview :
Much has been written about the decline of the U.S. as a world leader since the financial crisis. But despite relatively high unemployment and a widening income gap between the rich and everyone else, growth is accelerating, debt is declining and the banking sector is relatively healthy.
Economist Joel Kurtzman, who is also a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, says America is not in decline and actually on the verge of resurgence.
The author of the new book Unleashing the Second American Century: Four Forces for Economic Dominance, Kurtzman cites "four transformational forces" that will lead that to resurgence: tremendous creativity--"we produce more new ideas ... than any other country" -- tremendous energy reserves, reserves of capital and a re-shoring of manufacturing.
Myth #1: America is broke
America's private sector is in better shape than it's been in years, and the American consumer is healthier than she or he has been in the past 35 years, says Kurtzman. "On the private side of the balance sheet America is doing just fine," says Kurtzman. The public side is another story, but it's improving. The money America uses to pay its debt has been declining as a portion of GDP every year, "and it's very manageable," says Kurtzman.
Myth #2: High unemployment rates are here to stay
Kurtzman says the high jobless rate is concentrated in people without a college education and those under 25. The unemployment rate for someone over 25 who's college educated has held steady at around 4%.
Myth #3: China is ascending while America is declining
"China is coming of age at probably the worst time in history for a country that wants to be a manufacturing power," says Kurtzman. China's strategy involves having 200 million people a decade working in manufacturing, says Kurtzman. "They can't accommodate that," says Kurtzman. The U.S., meanwhile, has moved from a manufacturing-centric economy to a service-focused one--a transition that China will eventually have to make, says Kurtzman. "That will be very difficult for them."
Myth #4: America is a spent power
Kurtzman says the U.S. is in a great position for growth because it remains the world's leading military and manufacturing power, has trillions of dollars in capital to deploy and is now less dependent on imported oil given the development of its own energy reserves.
Myth #5: America doesn't make anything anymore
This is simply not true, says Kurtzman. America is the dominant manufacturing power in the world if you include what we make overseas. But if you just look at just what we make in America, we make 20% of everything produced. That's about the same as China but China makes low value-added products such as towels and clothing. We make airplanes, radar, turbines -- the big expensive stuff.
Conclusion: As you know the KLCI has recently broke the all time high record and like most investors, I too have the fear that the market might crash soon. After you have read the above extract, you must come to the conclusion that the US stock market will not crash so soon and our stock market will also not crash so soon.
I hope I have given you more confidence to invest and play the game.
More articles on Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Sendai is under priced - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | May 13, 2024
Eversendai Corporation Berhad recently reported its earnings results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023. Here are the key financial highlights:
Eversendai Corporation made a remarkable comeback in FY2023 - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | May 06, 2024
Eversendai Corporation Berhad made a remarkable comeback in FY2023, reporting strong profit growth. Here are the key highlights from their financial performance:
Sendai is still up trend - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Apr 30, 2024
As shown on the chart below, Sendai has been dropping in the last few days. Today all shareholders must be wondering to sell, hold on or to buy some at a cheaper price.
Eversendai Corporation made a remarkable comeback in FY2023 - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Apr 22, 2024
Eversendai Corporation Berhad made a remarkable comeback in FY2023, reporting strong profit growth. Here are the key highlights from their financial performance:
Sendai price trend reversal - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Apr 22, 2024
Sendai price chart below is showing its price trend reversal. It is hitting a record high.
How can KSL double its profit? - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Apr 18, 2024
After the stock closed yesterday, KSL announced its 4th quarter EPS which is 40.76 sen and its net tangible asset (NTA) backing of Rm 3.65. Its profit increased by 230% more than last year.
Why Sabah will leave Malaysia - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Mar 29, 2024
Currently Sabah Government does not know that solar panel produces the cheapest electricity???
Malaysia can be one of the richest nations in the world - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Mar 23, 2024
During my life time I saw every Prime Minister being replaced by another politician for one reason or another. Dr Mahathir managed to stay the longest time of 22 years.
Property Developers comparison - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Mar 04, 2024
All property developers have just announced their annual profit for 2023. All of them reported increased profit.
My contribution as an Engineer - Koon Yew Yin
Created by Koon Yew Yin | Mar 04, 2024
Although my writing of this article sounds boastful but I feel that it is important to keep this record for posterity. Engineers play a pivotal role in shaping our modern world.
Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 50 of 78 comments
You sure SA Yee kuat tong not?? U created new craze ........cannot eat shark fin but the soup is ok......
2014-02-18 13:58
the market is normal, not much crisis at the moment. so, we must buy xing quan and jtiasa. jtiasa related to Taib ?
2014-02-18 13:59
Transformer got cxxx or not.......after head get big again and start firing all direction.......
2014-02-18 14:01
ok ok enough nonsense. uncle koon is discussing some serious matter here. lets not disrupt him
2014-02-18 14:09
why mentioned a movie name here also get flag?? red flag somemore...laugh die me la. communist forum ka.
2014-02-18 14:22
for all you know, uncle koon is the one sitting in front of the computer busily flagging you
2014-02-18 14:28
Kakakaka.....this is the 4th transformer only ie age of extinction.......but ur name already 7....here they are particular about accuracy.....
2014-02-18 14:32
The optimists will always look at the positive signs and feel better days are ahead. The pessimists will look at the other way round to justify for their actions.
Whatever is your outlook, unless you have a crystal ball that allow you to gaze at the future, nobody can tell for sure what will happen next, its pure guessing game.
Everyone agreed with me that we have experienced crisis after crisis and each time the story is different. With so many uncertainties and risks around us, whether it is due to war, banking defaults etc. can destabilize the fragile system. The world is so wired up that huge block of funds can be mobilized with a "click of a button".
I think it will be a bad decision to chase after risky assets now especially under conditions that may have the potential to trigger dismal forward looking returns. My personal opinion is to get your exit plan ready to guide your capital. I may sound conservative but it is better to be safe then to be sorry later.
2014-02-18 15:15
1 thing 4 sure is the downtrend of ringgit will force BNM 2 raise int rate which in turn make equity less attractive.
2014-02-18 15:31
Can't focus 2much on co's fundamental now. Macro economy effects dominant.
2014-02-18 15:38
Analisis terlalu simple sangat. Jangan tengok Amerika saja, kena tengok Europah, India, Brazil dan China. India dengan China bila-bila boleh meletop, Amerika lain cerita.
2014-02-18 15:41
Alphabets thank you for your reminder. Let's keep our head cool. Don't take unnecessarily risky positions
2014-02-18 16:17
Malaysia current condition is much worse than pre 1997 crisis. WE have much higher government debt, much higher household debt, much weaker manufacturing sector, much bigger bubble on property sector, not much room to make money from oil due to "net importer" soon. Our current condition is ready for another bigger crisis !!
2014-02-18 17:56
WILL THE STOCK MARKET CRASH ! I have read from one of Uncle Koon's article that you have make your great fortune from previous market crashes. So I believe you are getting nearer to the repeat of your
"HOW TO BECOME A MOST SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR" soon. All the best Uncle Koon. I beleive you already have prepared an exit plan in your mind and strike when the opportunities drop by.
But your last sentence didnt appear like you are waiting for it soon, instead you are hoping that it won't be soon!
So in my opinion you should post a new article like WHY THE STOCK MARKET WON'T CRASH. And from your own oppinion and points and not from others. Because we trust you more than any others.
All the best to you Uncle Koon. Thank you.
2014-02-18 21:56
don't frighten ourselves unnecessarily, 2014 will be the year of the super bull for Malaysia. So don't miss the ride!
2014-02-18 21:59
Blog: Will the stock market crash? - Answer: find undervalue and DEFENSIVE and RECESSION PROOF stock - and PUNT in between
Defensive: HEXZA
Recession proof: NTPM
dont follow AyamTua .. own risk :-)
2014-02-18 22:01
Just to share this interesting article.
Feb 17, 2014 MARKETS
Stocks Near Records as Caution Recedes
By E.S. BROWNING
Bloomberg News
Don’t look now, but after all that January anxiety, investors have pushed the S&P 500 stock index back almost to a record.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 last week recorded their strongest weekly gains since December, albeit in light trading. The rally left the S&P 0.5% from a record and the Dow 2.6% away.
The reason: All the things people worried about in January, including troubled developing-country economies, uncertain U.S. corporate earnings and cuts in Federal Reserve stimulus, seem less worrisome today.
And as had been widely predicted, some money managers are shifting out of developing-country stocks and into the U.S., Europe and Japan.
“People realized a Lehman event wasn’t coming,” said Jeff Mortimer, director of investment strategy at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, which oversees $185 billion. He was referring to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
“The market is looking through near-term economic softness and looking forward to a stronger second half,” he said.
Investors who feared a 10% stock-market pullback now have decided that the path of least resistance is upward again. They are putting money back into U.S. stocks.
“Concerns about weak Chinese growth and a tighter Fed, which spurred recent volatility, have eased after recent data and statements from central bank officials,” said BarclaysBARC.LN +1.66% economist Michael Gapen in a report last week.
The problem, of course, is that U.S. stocks still haven’t had a 10% pullback since 2011, and many analysts still think one is coming.
As investors become more complacent about the future, they bid stocks higher. The higher stocks rise, the more expensive they look compared to corporate earnings, and the bigger the risk of a sharp drop if there is an unsettling news development. After last year’s gains, the S&P 500 is trading at 18 times its component companies’ earnings of the past year, well above the long-term average of 15 to 16.
But as Mr. Mortimer noted, most of those who expect a decline generally don’t expect anything like what happened in 2008. So as stocks rebound, few are frightened enough to pull back. Their main concern is to be sure they benefit from future gains.
“It is easy to come up with all sorts of scenarios where we would have a 10% correction at any time,” said Seth Masters, chief investment officer for Bernstein Global Wealth Management, which oversees $71 billion in New York.
And yet Mr. Masters’s firm is keeping a higher-than-normal allocation of money to stocks. He expects U.S. stocks to return around 7% or 8% for 2014 when the year is done, including dividends. That is far below last year’s 32% total return for the S&P, but it is better than most people expect from other investment choices, such as bonds.
In fact, Mr. Masters calculates, this kind of modest annual return would take the Dow well past 20000 by this time in 2018, from 16154 today. The one thing that would prevent that, of course, is another crisis. Mr. Masters and many other money managers think the financial system isn’t suffering from the kind of excess that would cause that.
Now that stocks have doubled or tripled off their 2009 lows and no longer look cheap, they are likely to face some nasty, temporary pullbacks, but nothing more, these money managers expect. They see a future of moderate economic growth, low inflation and a still very friendly Federal Reserve.
Mr. Mortimer of BNY Mellon has a similar outlook, foreseeing a 3% to 6% gain before dividends, which means 5% to 8% including dividends.
What keeps these optimistic money managers from foreseeing even stronger stock gains is that there are too many potential stumbling blocks ahead. Earnings are an example.
Eighty percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported fourth-quarter profits and two-thirds came in above analyst expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. That exceeds the post-1994 average of 63% and matches the level of the past four quarters. The average stock rose 0.84% on the trading day following its report, the biggest average gain since the middle of 2009, said a report from Bespoke Investment Group. So after a tentative start in January, earnings-reporting season gave stocks a boost.
But while investors were buying, analysts were chewing their nails. Analysts have cut estimates for 760 public companies in the past four weeks and raised estimates for only 457, Bespoke reported.
The results, in other words, have been strong enough to push stocks higher, but the outlook remains murky, as it so often is. Data from FactSet, a research company, show that 81% of companies that have provided forecasts for the first quarter have warned that earnings will be lower than analysts expect.
2014-02-18 22:49
Dear Uncle Koon,
I cannot aggree at what you mentioned above as it doesn't reflect your own analysis. We really appreciate it if you can share your own oppinion and not from others.
I appreciate this thread but it's copied from someone else analysis. Please share your thoughts. It maybe useful to me and to all members. Yes your own thoughts.
Thank you.
2014-02-19 18:53
Uncle Koon, I totally agreed with my brother mc121534 & my sis Christine Goh that we love to hear from your personal view on why the stock market won't crash, instead of having copied from the extract of Joel Kurtzman's interview.
You hv concluded with great confidence that the US stock market will not crash so soon & also our market will also not crash so soon too.
As a successful investor, we would appreciate that u could share with us yr foresight on the facts that the market will truly not crash so soon. In addition, every investors would like to hear fr yr prediction on when the market will crash, to enlighten us to protect our hard earned money from vanishing.
Yr personal view is highly appreciated. Thank you.
2014-02-19 21:38
As you know I am not an economist or an accountant. I am just a businessman and as an entrepreneur, I look at the stock market or any business proposal optimistically. I am always bullish. I naturally want to find out how I can take advantage of the situation to make some profit.
In this case, after reading what the expert said, I believe what I read. Of course there will always be some disbelievers, some believers, some have no opinion of their own, some naïve people who would accept any thing, some opinionated people who would only believe in his or her own opinion and disagree with whatever he or she reads, and finally there some with shit in their heard who would radical every thing they read.
2014-02-19 22:42
A entrepreneur means a person organised a business , a businessman means industrialist, manufacturer, dealer , trader and deal maker. Now you mentioned that you are actually a businessman and entrepreneur too. I dont believe that as a well respected figures in our soil as everybody said, instead you send me the posting as below. I am very disappointed as you are misleading me and you show me your real intention is to fulfill your own intentions. Anyway this is my last comment in your blog that divert and confusing from you saying "noble intention" it totally different from your intention to help and guide the younger generation. Thats's all.
Thank you.
Posted by Koon Yew Yin > Feb 16, 2014 11:40 PM | Report Abuse
Christine, what business are you doing? What kind of business that requires your attention even on week ends? You seem to know so much about share investment, why don't you stop doing business and invest in shares?
In share investment you are not required to work on week ends, you will not have bad debts, you will have no management and tax problem problem. Moreover, you do not need to deal with people especially the hard nuts.
What is the use of being an armchair critic?
2014-02-20 00:41
Christine what uncle mean is what I can creating money making machines.
Property rentals or publishing a book are some examples. I am not sure if shares investments creates passive income.
2014-02-20 01:20
The current high volume traded in bursa esp on penny stock or lower liners are signs that market might reverse soon. This has been proven a couple of times already. Keep a good watch out.
2014-02-20 01:27
Christine, please write to me directly koonyewyin@gmail.com so that we can communicate outside this public forum. I believe I have the necessary experience in helping people and I genuinely want to see how I can help you.
Among the outstanding people I have helped are multi millionaires such as Lin Yun Ling, CEO of Gamuda, Ng Ying long, former CEO of Mudajaya, Fong Loong Tuck Dy Chairman of Glomac.
2014-02-20 09:48
Dear Uncle Koon,
l believe, I can learn from you as you are a very experience entrepreneur. That's the reason why I posted my own experience to share in your posting. Now that you understand my sincere view I feel we have much to share. Tonight I will meet a group of Public Listed Company Ceo .I will write to you at your said email about one good listed undervalue company to share with you. Hopefully we can share our view and exchange our ideas to be a successful trader. My long term invested stock is GHL Systems bhd.
Thank you.
2014-02-20 11:47
Dear Mr Koon, I missed out your JT when you highlighted it at range of RM2.20. Now the price has lifted to RM2.4.
Is the current trend justifed entry, or I should hold my breath first for lower entry? Thank you.
2014-02-20 12:09
Dear Mr Koon,I think I should rephrase my Q: what are the factors you always have in mind when deciding for entry or increase holding for a specific shares for a mid to long term holding?
Thank you.
2014-02-20 12:13
Kitty28, it is difficult to answer your question because it involves human psychology and your financial position. Supposing you have just discovered a really good share but it has already gone up 10 or 20%, would you still buy it? As you know no one can predict whether the share will go up or down in the near future. To buy or not to buy depends on your financial position and your appetite for venture.
Supposing after you have bought a good share, its price went down, what would you do? Would you sell, hold or buy some more?
Supposing after you have bought a good share, its price went up, what would you do? Would sell, hold or buy some more?
2014-02-20 16:34
Thank you for your kind response.
Financial Position Scenario:-
Suppose I have a spare cash of only RM10K for share investment purpose on behalf of my child, which I may need to realize it in about 10-15 years later, is JT a good choice for my purpose? Whatever decision I made is absolutely at my own risk..:)
2014-02-20 17:11
Kitty28, please write to me directly koonyewyin@gmail.com so that I can advice you privately. If I write on this forum, there will be so many people giving you unsolicited advice and you will be more confused.
2014-02-20 17:57
talent talent. haikeyila. I want to meet u. no point be an armchair critic!!
2014-02-21 10:56
Haikeyila don't like boy and man......but then again Transformer is not a man.....
2014-02-21 11:06
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-try-to-time-the-market-2014-02-21
some good pointers -
A lot trying to stay being too defensive and missing a rally can have just as much long-term impact on your portfolio
Making a market-timing call requires good timing — not perfect, but good — at both ends of the deal, because if you buy in late, after the rise has started, or sell out only after a decline becomes apparent, you’re not achieving the classic “buy low, sell high” paradigm
2014-02-22 04:45
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Apps
Top Articles
1
3
4
6
7
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
MQ Trading Signals
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Icon8888
fail... unable to produce red flag... can somebody teach me ?
2014-02-18 13:56