Jaya Tiasa historical record cannot lie - Koon Yew Yin

Mr Koon had indicated the historical growth in FFB production and forecasted the next 5 years CAGR at 30%......what is the impact to the bottom line in JT financial position?

Perhaps that correlation can leads us to uncover the real value in JT...

2014-02-25 15:58

Oh no. You don't need a good forecast for next few years. It's not so important. What most important is Uncle Koon supported behind. The rest is pretty issues.

2014-02-25 16:08

Monica

DuitBear, siapa itu uncle Z? what "rembat" means?

2014-02-25 16:14

palm oil is a commodity business. There will be no selling price differentiation within the same grade of FFB. Hence, there are several deciding factors influencing the bottom line:

I) The cost efficiency per acre

II)The fruit recovery per acre

III) The source of growth in FFB production mature, un mature and green trees

IV) Unplanted land to support future growth.

JT is a relative small size FFB player now and still a rather small player in future after factor in CAG at 30% for the next 5 years

The other business segment is timber...perhaps that would be more attractive in future...

I won't buy JT if just based on FFB story alone...

2014-02-25 16:25

i am in the opinion if you can't translate the growth in FFB into bottom line during the bull cycle....likes any other FFB players in the industry.....be cautious....need to examine further the details as i outlined above..

2014-02-25 16:29

Don't waste your time to do the calculation. You can't prove you are right because you are not able to drive the share price up. Uncle's Koon 30% compound growth is confirmed corrected because we must judge from the share price up or down to prove your power.

2014-02-25 16:37

There is a business tycoon experienced failure in gua musang because of soil there is not suitable for palm plantation.....very low in recovery per acre....

2014-02-25 16:38

How can you compare that business tycoon with Jtiasa. That tycoon is a typical failure. You know Jtiasa historical data cannot lie. You must have solid proven records. The FFB production has been growing more than 30% for the past few years. The peat land of Jtiasa is guaranteed for the high yield.

2014-02-25 16:45

Oic.....I had a friend sit in senior position....perhaps....let me dig more info...

2014-02-25 17:12

Your info is merely for passing time. It can't do anything with the movements of Jtiasa share price. You must know the information come out from whose mouth and who has more influential power to charge up the share price.

2014-02-25 17:21

there is no tokong in share market! you will lose yr pant if you follow blindly in equity market....anyway, that's yr right....I no comment....I will continuous to furnish my info...once avai.

You dun care ....others care.

2014-02-25 17:29

Something you may not know good tips recently. I heard that uncle has invested 100 million in Jtiasa. Some more, he may have another 100 million to back up so Jtiasa is guaranteed up up.

2014-02-25 17:37

It's not worthwhile to find more excuses if you want to be super investor. If you want find, there more than 100 excuses out there. What important is its share price up. The rest is history.

2014-02-25 18:05

Jtiasa posted a good results of 2.05 cents per share in the last quarter. You can’t find any great plantation company to perform so well. Don't forget its FFB production would grow 30% CAG. You guys can imagine how well it would perform in near future.

2014-02-25 19:23

Icon8888

cough cough

2014-02-25 19:24

tribaleps

People who think JTIASA's results yesterday were great are delusional. Ta Ann made more money last quarter with only half of the oil palm acreage and it was still bleeding like mad on the timber side.

2014-02-26 10:24

Be positive. The results of Jtiasa is very encouraging. Don't forget the magic of El Nino. We must judge from the share price. If the price up means good. The rest is history.

2014-02-26 11:18

Koon Yew Yin

Out of 88 commentaries, Up_down made 25. I think you are the same person or have the same level of intelligence as optimus 1,7 or 8. Please stop making a fool of yourself by exposing your stupidity. You accused me of buying JT continuously to push up the price.

As you can see the daily turnover for Jaya Tiasa is so much, I cannot be keep buying to push the price up from Rm 2.04 from start of 2014 to around Rm 2.50, an increase of more than 20% within 2 months. Many long term investors, are beginning to see the good profit growth prospect. Of course the current poor earning would discourage short tern players. As I said to be able to make more money than ordinary investors, you must have good foresight and guts to buy for long term, like any successful businessman.

2014-02-26 11:45

Saturn101

Fair statement.....

2014-02-26 11:47

Your statement :

" Since the average age of the palms is only about 6 years and palm will produce the maximum fruits at the age of 11 years, I can foresee the FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years. "

How to justify the growth?

Assume Jtiasa completing its planting this year. The total planted area is 70,900 hectare.

FFB production compound growth for 5 years:
Year 2013 - 664,000 Mt
Year 2014 - 863,000 ( 664,000 x 1.3 )
Year 2015 - 1,122,000 ( 664,000 x 1.3 x 1.3 )
Year 2016 - 1,458,000 ( 664,000 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 )
Year 2017 - 1,895,000 ( 664,000 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 )
Year 2018 - 2,463,000 ( 664,000 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3)

Is it mean that after 5 years, Jtiasa would achieve FFB production 2,463,000 per year? If we take a maximum scenario, Jtiasa is only able to produce FFB 1,772,500Mt ( 70,900 hectare x 25Mt ).

Is it your projection realistic?

2014-02-26 12:18

Your statement:

"
As I said historical record cannot lie. That includes you own track record in making money from the stock market. If you have not been very successful, you must change your attitude or mindset, especially the above commentators who seem to know a lot about Jaya Tiasa.

While you are still finding excuses not to buy JT, it has already gone up from Rm 2.04 from beginning of 2014 to close at Rm 2.54 today, an increase of 50 sens equivalent to about 25%. "

Do you meant I have to change my attitude or mindset to follow your projection blindly?

2014-02-26 12:23

Ricky Kiat

Agree with Mr Koon, time will prove it.

2014-02-26 12:33

I also agreed with uncle Koon too because i make some profit from Jtiasa. It is just the figures not agree with his statement. wakaaaaa

2014-02-26 12:37

Ricky Kiat

Be patient, Jtiasa result will be very good on early 2015 after 2 new mill fully operational & end of new planting.

2014-02-26 12:43

In my opinion,

1) The current poor earning in JT as against its industry peers will discourage the short term speculator or shy away the potential uninformed long term investor. After all, the layman does not have the competency to spot the "hidden gem" or "hidden risk" beyond the current financial position.

2) There is no standard formula in equity valuation. The variables influenced the valuation changes from time to time such as the performance against industry peers, industry cyclical and the general market sentiment. If you do own homework against its peers, you may be able to appraise the valuation more accurately.

3) The growth that funded by debt is always welcome as long as the earning generated is enough to service the debt. However, there is always a risk associated in financing the growth particularly in commodity business that are cyclical driven.

4) The behavioural of controlling shareholder is critical in realizing the potential of the company. It must be business like.

2014-02-26 15:38

KinSoon Kok

If JTiasa is planning to set up oil mills then it's outlook is much brighter. Any documents on this issue? When is mil expected to star operating? Would it miss the current high cpo rally? If it starts operating 2-3 yrs from now then it might not be able to enjoy the current cpo rally. Timing is important.

2014-02-26 16:13

KinSoon Kok

Where did u get the infor, Ricky?

2014-02-26 16:18

denden

Look at the notes of the q announcement. rm155m used for oil mills

2014-02-26 16:43

Ricky Kiat

kin soon,u can get the info from ambank or cimb report about jtiasa,

Jaya Tiasa currently has two CPO mills with a combined
processing capacity of 150 tonnes/hour.
The latest mill, with a capacity of 60 tonnes/hour, was
commissioned in April last year, at a total cost of RM70mil.

The group is currently constructing two more mills with a
combined capacity of 180 tonnes/hour, at a total cost of
RM165mil. This would translate to an additional annual
capacity of 972,000 tonnes of FFB.

With the current two mills, the group has an annual
capacity to process 810,100 tonnes of FFB (based on 2-
nine hour shifts per day and 25 days/month).

The new one at Lassa Plantation is expected to be
completed by April this year, while the fourth mill at
Hariyama Plantation is scheduled to be completed by yearend.
All four mills are strategically located within the group’s
cluster of oil palm estates, to cater to logistical efficiencies
and minimisation of transportation costs.

Along with the first one at the Wealth House estate, the
addition mills could potentially slash transportation
costs by at least 40%, if not more.
Transportation cost now accounts for between RM45-
RM50/tonne.

Given its annual FFB production of over 1mil tonnes in the
next two years, Jaya Tiasa could resort to buying FFB from
third parties towards raising the utilisation rate of the
additional mill capacity.

Declining capex beyond FY15F will improve cash flow to
the firm, decrease gearing and boost its ability to pay cash
dividends. Regardless, the acquisition of more
plantation land is not ruled out.

2014-02-26 17:51

madviruz

Beware listening to market prediction of others may be detrimental to your financial health. It will blur your vision of facts that are truly important. Avoid the broadcasting booth.

2014-02-27 09:58

newbie2013

thank you koon yy and all the above sifu for the valuable information and updates. I have made some on FGV and the FYE results are dampening, so I have decided to shift to Jtiasa.
Mr Koon, pls write n update more on other investment that has potential. TQ

2014-02-27 12:57

sosfinance

Bankers manipulated LIBOR. Investment bankers and Hedge Funds were alleged of manipulating or distorting some of the commodity prices. Unlike charter rates, they are not traded in any exchange, hence reflecting the actual transacted price, while other commodities, it is hard to say, hence, you can see the big swing in prices, more of emotional driven than actual Demand and Supply.

2014-03-02 01:54

benson911

Will Jtiasa drops below RM2?

2014-08-11 19:32

yes. that is how foolish a genius can be when it get old, and out.

2014-08-27 22:02

food for thoughts....kikiki

Many readers complianed that I was promoting Jaya Tiasa because I want people to buy to support the share. I have been telling you that I do not need you to make me richer because time will prove me right. My intention is noble and altruistic, I just want to teach you how to be a super investor.---kyy

2014-08-27 22:03

gray

was taught well with jtiasa.... super**** investor let your imagination run wild with the ****

2014-08-27 22:14

Post removed.Why?

2014-08-27 22:19

Smart people are laughing all the way to banks. Its followers are crying all the way to the bank after receiving margin call.

2014-08-27 22:37

Posted by Up_down > Aug 27, 2014 10:37 PM | Report Abuse

Smart people are laughing all the way to banks. Its followers are crying all the way to the bank after receiving margin call.

kikiki.

2014-08-27 22:40

gray

smart? SLY..... to be precise

2014-08-27 22:40