Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Supermax price dropping defies logic - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Mon, 08 Feb 2021, 09:24 AM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
You can see all the Investment Banks have their target prices as shown on the table below.
The above chart shows that Supermax price has been dropping in the last 5 months. It started to drop on 6 Aug when the price was Rm 11.89 to close at Rm 6.67, a drop of Rm 5.22 or 44%.
The price dropping defies investment logic.
Before you want to buy a stock, you would examine logically the followings:
1. Whether its EPS has any growth potential.
2. Whether the share will drop further.
3. What is the downside risk.
In the case of Supermax, its EPS will continue to increase in the next few quarters due the increase in demand for gloves during the current Covid 19 pandemic. Many scientists have predicted the Covid 19 pandemic will continue for another 4 or 5 years despite mass vaccination. To stop the spread of the coronavirus at least 70% of the world population must be vaccinated. There are 7.6 billion people in the world. Currently only the rich countries can afford to buy vaccine to vaccinate their citizens. Most of the countries cannot afford to vaccinate their citizens.
The downside risk is minimum because it has dropped 44% in the last 5 months while the company has been reporting increase EPS.
Its 1st quarter ending Sept 30.58 sen. Its 2nd quarter EPS was 41.14, totalling 71.72 sen for half year. Assuming the company cannot increase its selling price for its gloves, the EPS for each of the next 2 quarters will be 41.14 sen and 41.14 sen. Its annual EPS will be Rm 1.54. Base on PE 10, it should be valued at Rm 15.6 per share.
This target price of Rm 15.60 is easily achievable. Investors must not sell their holding but wait patiently for the next few months to see the increased EPS. The downside risk is minimum.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 59 comments
sense maker The more it drops the happier you should be and the more Supermx you get to buy at cheaper prices. Your desperate longwindedness in promoting Supermx defies logic.
08/02/2021 9:56 AM
lol....very true in my case lah...the lower the better for me to buy cheap cheap
But not for those who bought at higher price n sitting on paper loss and is under heavy margin financing....
2021-02-08 12:26
Even a PN17 stock could go limit up...there's no logic in share trading. Wake up KYY ! Lose too much until can't think properly ??
2021-02-08 12:50
There's fundamental to it but less logical.
Stock market is about sentiment.
Now the sentiment for gloves is forward looking 9-12 mths ahead, where ASP will likely drop by 50%, increase in supplies by glove wannabes worldwide, little moat/barrier to entry, demand to decline in 2022 onwards.
2021-02-08 14:10
Hmm supermax is not undervalued anymore. Topglove and hartalaga is. Recent report say the supermax ASP has dropped and not looking good in future growth.
2021-02-08 14:13
KYY, then prove yourself by buying more, rather than pursuing small retailers to push up the price for you, so you can run away from the trap.
2021-02-08 17:14
obviously Supermax has been suppressed for the big guys to accumulate cheaper. And there are no interests in gloves now as all the hot money are busy chasing tech stocks. Just see the PE, more than 100. It s like what happened to Glove back in June/July last year.
2021-02-08 17:58
So you only analyze the downside risk based on PE ratio? What about the market sentiment towards gloves? Do you think retailers not afraid of vaccine affecting the gloves?
Then how come retailers dump this like shit with vaccine news coming? How about this? Do you factor this in your research?
A good stock must take care both side which are retailers and IB.
2021-02-08 19:01
Dear Mr Koon Yew Yin
Supermax latest 2nd Qtr ending Dec 20 has already shown increasing EPS and yet share price has dropped
The QoQ profit growth is getting lower and lower - Dec 20 vs Sep 20 only increased 34%
Qtr Ending - PAT ('000) - QoQ growth (%)
Dec 20 - 1,059,63 +34%
Sep 20 - 789,516 +98%
Jun 20 - 399,618
What makes you think coming better EPS with lower QoQ growth will make the share price move higher..?
That is the logic
And it is crystal clear
Sincerely,
EMSVSI
2021-02-08 19:12
This old geezer taught he knew alot before this and always boast his broken track record. Now if you were to refer to his last few recommendations you will notice they were outright disasters e.g. JAKS, DAYANG and now Supermax. Why ah? He can't see it on the charts but now using Analysts to support his buy recommendation. So simple meh, then every TOM, DICK and HARRY with some knowledge will make money loh? Almost 90 yo and he's got a lot more to learn. Golden rule, never go against the tide.
2021-02-08 19:55
Haha,
If you are tired of reading Koon Supermax defies logic then welcome to read Philip:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Telegram/2021-01-05-story-h1539148784-My_pump_and_dump_stock_for_2021_foreign_dumping_edition.jsp
The stock market is always very funny, the sum does not equal the parts
In the case the parts are worth more than Wilmar when it owned 90% of yihai Kerry?
Wilmar 30 billion... Yihai 100 billion
Incredible
2021-02-08 20:01
the stock market has no logic
its time everyone recognize this, otherwise you will go mad.
2021-02-08 20:03
a lot of ppl fail to realise that klse is a manipulated market.
only controlled by a few IBs
its also general knowledge now that whenever their IB issued call warrants are near the expiry dates, the share prices of the affiliated stocks drop..
where is the LOGIC in that eh?
personally...klse will never reach above 2000, this is a simple observation
2021-02-08 21:01
I agree but not based on your basis and assumptions.
My reason is that Malaysian productivity is extremely low.
In KL when I left my office in Wisma Genting at 12 midnight, from left to right, you cannot even see more than 10 people. Only a male transvestite was winking at me.
In Singapore when I left my office at 12 midnight near Orchard Road, from left to right you can see thousands of people walking about, most are walking to MRT, quite a lot of caucasians in suits holding briefcases going to MRT.
Malaysians were fooking at home while Singaporeans were working, how to have high productivity? and Index 2000?
Posted by coolinvestor > Feb 8, 2021 9:01 PM | Report Abuse
personally...klse will never reach above 2000, this is a simple observation
2021-02-08 21:11
i think Mr. Koon need to address the greatest fear of gloves investors currently (no point coming with many articles and not talking about the elephant in the room)...
""investors fear that the extraordinary fat margin glove makers enjoying now will easily be squeezed by new players coming into the market.."
.....................................................................
the above factor on supply side is the major concern now and not the demand reduction after successful vaccination (which now everyone knows takes a long time due to many factors such as vaccine efficacy, doses available and new strains)
this is the root cause - if Mr. Koon can dispute this concern, share price will surely shoot up
2021-02-08 21:24
Haha,
See posting in MRDIY where got logic and why need to work till 12 midnight like i3lurker just need more DIY and Index 2000 no problem.
Posted by Dongbei > Feb 8, 2021 9:25 PM | Report Abuse
Valuation is insane..more valuable than Genting..
Four times higher than AEON...big SELL..
2021-02-08 21:34
agree
sslee himself will order 1 billion condom fingers to take back to Indon
everytime he suck his thumb after buying INSAS he will change a condom finger.
Posted by Tobby > Feb 8, 2021 9:36 PM | Report Abuse
I am afraid months to come, Supermax will be forced to make mini condoms out of so much overproduction of gloves!
2021-02-08 21:41
Likely got margin call and forced selling by the IBs once the price dropped to a certain level. Same as in Topglove.
2021-02-08 21:45
Haha i3lurker,
I will buy at USD7 perbox and resold to the Hongkie
KUALA LUMPUR: Inix Technologies Holdings Bhd is likely to receive orders from Hong Kong customers for at least 240 million boxes of pure nitrile medical gloves for the next two years.
Within days after Inix completed the acquisition of the shares of L&S Gloves Sdn Bhd (L&S Glove), the company's glove factory was visited by a representative of two Hong Kong buyers to negotiate new orders.
The price is expected to be set at US$9 per box.
Inix had completed the acquisition of a 51 per cent stake in L&S Glove two weeks ago, making it officially commencing its new glove business division.
In a statement, Inix said the representative of two listed companies in Hong Kong had personally made a surprise site visit to L&S Glove's factory in Beranang, Selangor today to understand the progress of the production lines.
The management of glove division of Inix welcomed the visiting Hong Kong representative, Hoo Ching Han, and both parties conduct in-depth negotiations on the orders after a tour of the factory.
2021-02-08 22:02
This old geezer would have been a FAILURE if not for using i3 to promote his stocks and his pure luck during the Hang Seng crash. If he had bought all his earlier shares without the knowledge of the masses except his broker and probably his family, there is no way he would have made so much easy money on MARGIN. That got to his head, making him think he was a SUPER INVESTOR. Now, he's in REALITY.
2021-02-08 22:08
sslee
there is an export license requirement before it can be exported.
but should not be a problem if you understand he Malaysian way of doing things.
wink wink
2021-02-08 22:14
koon manyak kuat tipu lah... gua sudah sangkut supermax pada harga Rm8.80
2021-02-08 22:22
ppl talk about IBs call warrants n i3lurker bugger talk about productivity....where got related. so pandai to twist n turn...snakey fella
2021-02-08 22:32
This article doesn't have any logical logic anymore. Uncle cannot afford margin call & mtm loss now more than ex-Jaks coz play fire margin! So everyday try very hard until sore throat influencing innocent ppl. Don't get conned!!
2021-02-08 22:50
fair logical article, because huge profit could raise huge cash flow and rise NTA too. But that could be a value trap, similar to shell Malaysia (hengyuan) many years ago
2021-02-08 23:00
ironically Hengyuan was fried by the old geezer a few years back. not much success here unfortunately. why did he wait so long? that is a fact that defies logic!
a superinvestor? i think not!
2021-02-09 06:21
After so many months (Started March 2020) of experience trading in stock Market, I think feel very proud of my self. Maybe God give me talent. Many friends & relative call me SIFU range because from last year I already told my friends don't buy glove counter. If you got 100% fund all buy in 1 stock (all in) at penny stock like XOX, Vivocom, AT. NEVER EVER BUY FUNDAMENTAL STOCK BUT NO TREND such as glove.
During that time no body going to listen to me, now proven I'm smarter than most of the investors in Malaysia. Maybe from small I have this talent.
Many people like to buy many stock 10, 15, 20 stock in their portfolio.. Normally I will advice my friends only buy one penny stock all in.. I can guarantee you can see your profit generate very fast.. For example last round I bought my XOX at RM0.06 & sell at RM0.23. I earn 283%. See how smart am I.. This is so called smart investor.
Don't being fool by many old generation asking youngster follow their outdated method only buy good fundamental company. See what happen now. Most of the glove price drop 30-50% but never going up until today. I pity most of them.. Maybe they not smart enough to invest in Bursa.
2021-02-09 09:51
The comments section bring more valuable information than the article of this half dying old fox
2021-02-09 11:11
I think koon got dementia...he forgot he oredi posted the same thing more than 100 times..
Dont worry he will post for another 100 times
2021-02-09 13:00
Don't try so hard to defy gravity and logic or u end up owning 100% of all glove counters. : )
2021-02-09 16:28
it defies extraordinary investor's logic... but ordinary investor like me will not understand.....
2021-02-09 21:31
I can still remember this is the same kind of argument he wrote on HENGUAN & DAYANG before the prices for these two counters crashed!!! AND all his followers lost money for following him blindly!!!
2021-02-09 21:36
The chart contains the totality of reality.
If we argue with chart, means, we argue with reality.
Chart contains information undetected by the human mind since chart mirrors reality.
Value investor could argue that the price will rebound once rss buy back the share.
There is logic in such arguments but you could also argue that I have never loss any money in investing.
Because I will always wait for the price reach back my entry point.
All the best.
2021-02-09 23:15
Just received new another glove wannabes:
Lienteh Technology Sdn Bhd, which is expected to obtain necessary approvals to commence production of nitrile gloves, is seeking a back-door listing via Eonmetall Group Bhd. Eonmetall, via a share sale agreement, is planning to acquire a 51% stake in Lienteh Technology for RM51 million. The purchase consideration will be entirely satisfied via the issuance of 72.86 million Eonmetall shares and the granting of a call option by the vendors to Eonmetall for the acquisition of the remaining 49% equity interest for RM49 million.
2021-02-10 08:52
Remind yourselves
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
JAKS Resources
2021-02-10 09:45
Just look at Supermax price chart for the last 10 years and you will noticed that once this pandemic settles down, the share price will collapse down to the floor. Be patient except old geezer would be long gone by then.
2021-02-10 13:58
me thinks KYY lost money in Supermax already.
Desperation Index is getting worse and worse by the Day.
2021-02-11 16:38
Many getting smart and avoid the risky last lap. Wise to control your greed and get out once achieved your sell target.
2021-02-14 23:27
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