OldSchool.com - Jae Jun

5 Common Investing Mistakes I Made that You Should Avoid

Tan KW
Publish date: Mon, 13 Jan 2014, 06:47 PM

 

January 13th, 2014

 

Written by

Jae Jun

Back during my schooling years, I studied the same problem again and again so that I didn’t make the same mistake come exam time.

Problem was that I was horrible at application.

If the exact question came out in the exam, I killed it.

But that rarely happened. The question  was always worded differently and confused the heck out of me.

I ended up screwing up similar questions multiple times.

The market is like this.

You make investment mistakes and in order to make sure you get it right next time, you focus and tell yourself you won’t make that mistake again.

But then a slightly different stock comes along and before you know it, your tendencies start to come out….. again.

This happened again in 2013 and since I know I am not perfect, I want to share some short reflections on the common investing mistakes that I have made.

It’s time to confess.

Common Investing Mistakes that I have Made

1. Trying to Time the Market

Everyone is affected by what the market does to a certain degree.

The  biggest problem is that with the market zooming up, uncertainty about when to buy creeps in.

Should I buy now?

Or should I wait a little to see if the market corrects itself and get a better price?

The fix? Focus on the investment quality of the business and to buy it at a cheap or fair price independent of what the market does.

2. Focusing on the Stock Price and Not Intrinsic Value

There are two parts to common investment mistake.

If the intrinsic value of a stock is 50% or even 100% higher, then waiting for the stock to drop a measly 2% before buying doesn’t make sense.

I have found myself quibbling over wanting to buy it “just a little cheaper”.

How many times have you found yourself submitting a buy order and entering the bid price just a few cents lower than the stock price?

Stop quibbling over cents.

The second point is that the stock price does not dictate intrinsic value. If the stock drops 20%, it’s easy to get worried, but the best thing to do is nothing.

I’ve made the mistake of making an emotional decision.

The stock price is not an indicator of intrinsic value.

3. Holding a Loser Until it Breaks Even

I fall for this one more often than I should.

A dreaded bias of not wanting to close the position on a stock at a loss that I invested a lot of time and effort on.

GRVY was a net net and had the makings of a huge profitable investment.

Like all things in life, it didn’t turn out the way I had planned.

With my investment down 50%, I did hope that I would break even. But over the past year, I have scaled back the holding.

I still hold a small portion because at the current price, it would also be an emotional move to sell out completely.

The value of the cash on hand far exceeds the stock price and as much as I want to sell and be done with it, I know that even crap stocks make good investments at dirt cheap prices.

4. Overly Focusing on Other People’s Opinion

There are pros and cons to this.

The pros are:

  1. it’s a shortcut to investing especially when you’ve found somebody you can trust
  2. saves time
  3. build a diversified (> 20 positions) based on other solid value investor picks and it beats the market

The cons are:

  1. you don’t know what you are getting yourself into
  2. you don’t know exactly when to sell
  3. you don’t know what to do if something bad happens and you need to keep asking for opinions

It’s truly a big mistake comes when you end up completely relying on another person on the investment.

I bring up GRVY again. Yes I screwed up on that one, and I know people also bought into it as well. The mistake is that I can’t provide live updates for every move GRVY makes.

That’s when becoming overly dependent is a mistake which becomes a portfolio risk.

5. Not Utilizing My Checklist Enough

I do have a checklist that I refer to. I purposefully didn’t make it into some gigantic list or to be very exhaustive.

But by using just one set of checklist, I end up looking for the same style of companies. My checklist needs to expand and evolve into something that can handle different types of investments.

A collection of shorter checklist that is suited for different situations such as:

  • common value plays
  • turnarounds
  • high growth stocks
  • and net nets

Not only will this help make better decisions, but it will also reduce time during the research phase by having clear goals of what to look for instead of wandering and trying to figure out what to look for.

 

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/investing-perspective/common-investing-mistakes/

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 17 of 17 comments

bsngpg

I have one: "Holding a Loser Until it Breaks Even".

In spite of agreeing with the author, I still can’t help myself holding on losers. It's easier said than done. If you are good, you go ahead to sell the losers. I am sorry that I enjoy being stupid. 无药可救了. 唉!
你呢 ?

2014-01-13 20:25

Fat Cat Tim Buddy

now.. i sell losers asap after i realized it is a mistake.

2014-01-13 20:50

Kamaru BahariBakar

The most important point : Hold the loser stock until break even. (Do or die philosophy).

2014-01-13 21:20

watchful2

Yeah, decision should based on what is your target price & selling at loss is painful but you have to do so.

Never chase for the falling knife but if you have money & the fundamental is good, it is time for you to leveraging down your share investment. e.g. UMSNGB. The current price is very2 attracting. It falls from recent price of RM0.90 to RM0.705 (today - 13 Jan 14 closing). Holding power determined if you should continue to leveraging down or cut lost.

2014-01-13 22:43

kcchongnz

"Holding a Loser Until it Breaks Even"

The “Endowment Effect” is one of the emotional biases of human being. It is due to the fact that once you own an item, forgoing it feels like a loss, and humans are loss-averse.

Loss aversion is due to the fact that people dislike incurring losses much more than they enjoy making gains. Avoiding regret and seeking pride affects people’s behaviour and in turn causes the disposition effect resulting investors predisposed to holding losers too long (& selling winners too quickly).

This disposition effect can affect the investment return of an investor such as opportunity cost if he continues to hold on to a stock with deteriorating prospect. It can also deprives investors good return from the stock based on the initial thesis, if just because it is a loser and you must sell it.

Hence it is very important to have a good feel of the intrinsic value of the stock and know the relationship between value and price. It can take a lot longer than for value to be realized than we expected, but that it’s taking longer doesn’t mean we’ve made a mistake. If the market hasn’t recognized the value we see and the company is continuing to increase its intrinsic value, why should be a hurry to sell?

A few things need to be checked if one should continue to hold the losers.
1. Have we made some significant mistakes in the analysis of the stock?
2. Have the fundamentals changed drastically?
3. Were we wrong about the management or the deterioration of management decisions?
4. “If we didn’t own it, would we be buying it today?”

2014-01-14 06:07

bsngpg

Related point from 夜月:
决定的方法很简单,
公司价格高于公司价值,卖出
公司价值高于公司价格,买进或继续持有。

斤经济较:买股票是买公司的现在不是未来 - 夜月
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/44847.jsp

2014-01-14 07:11

bsngpg

There are many wrong matches in marriage especially in Chinese community. Both or at least one know that he/she had made wrong decision marrying her/him. But both just cannot decide to divorce and looking for another spring outside. The consequence is that “a complete family seeing from outside, the actual is suffering inside”.

2014-01-14 07:19

sunztzhe

It boils down to ones investment strategy and emotional makeup. A true Fundamentalist will buy/sell based on the discount/premium of stock price relative the intrinsic worth. A true Trader will buy/sell based on Technical indicators on whether the stocks are oversold/overbought. These are good systems to follow be it FA or TA. The problem is the emotions gets in the way to cloud decision making.

2014-01-14 09:31

ProfitMan

It is not easy to cut losing stks but it needs to be done. It is part and parcel of stk investment. Most investors hang on to such stks with the HOPE that it will turn good. Hope can be costly. The intrinsic value of the stk is important and useful as a guide under such circumstances. Just as useful too is the TA of the stk. Never try to go against the reality of the market.

2014-01-14 09:41

bsngpg

I like this one from sunztzhe very much: “emotions get in the way to CLOUD decision making”. I opine this is one of the most reflective realities of the majority of investing community.
Thks.

2014-01-14 10:25

andychucky28

When you talk about emotion, i will think about the kangkung man and also all the right wing brainless shit fighting just because of that one word which is also not originate from this piece of shit land.

2014-01-14 10:28

andychucky28

The kangkung man should think how to get more investors to come in to this shit land rather than squeezing the juice out of us.

2014-01-14 10:30

bsngpg

Yes, holding on a “loser” is costly. But at least emotion is satisfied. Lesson learned is to be more careful in stock selection so that risk of getting “loser” again can be minimized. If I have more “loser” than winner in portfolio, I am a “loser” too.

2014-01-14 10:45

andychucky28

At KLSE, it is like beating the raining dog. Do not buy any counter that is already up too high.

2014-01-14 11:03

talkking

mati. all 5 mistake i also has

2014-01-14 17:19

bsngpg

Talkking: welcome to the forum. Please scroll up , look for kcchongnz. Follow his posts and teaching. You can ask questions. He is very generous to teach fundamental of investing. Read the many good articles posted by Tan KW too. Happy learning.

2014-01-14 17:52

ikan bilis

i really learn a lot from u guys sharing. thank you !!!!

2014-01-14 23:23

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