Road to Success
(RICHE HO) 富家木业FLBHD - 该守或该走？
RicheHo
Publish date: Tue, 05 Jul 2016, 03:01 PM
FLB今天闭市时，再跌3cent，创下了9个月新低。从1月高峰RM3.00左右跌至今天的RM1.71，FLB总共在6个月里跌了43%！到底这股发生了什么事？笔者有位朋友在1年前从RM1.60-1.70左右买入，股价暴涨至RM3.00也没套利，然后再看着它跌回成本价，犹如坐了一趟过山车。心情肯定很复杂。
FLB是由3名伙伴成立于1980年，是一家以沙巴为基地的胶合板制造商。它在2011年上市于大马主要板。创始人分别是来自台湾的“林氏”、“陆氏”和“杨氏”。FLB的股权结构主要是由个别股东组成，没有一名股东拥有超过10%。这3大家族在近一年发生了股权变动，当中不知发生什么事。陆氏家族在2015年大幅度售股，从16%降至7%，继续持股的成员也从3位变成1位。林氏家族个个成员则增股，从18%增至24%，而杨氏家族并没有多大变化。目前，陆氏依然还在抛股。
FLB近年的业绩都挺出色的，主要归功于外汇盈利。根据2015年财报，FLB有高达99%的销售是来自出口，主要以USD来交易。翻看FLB的季度报告，FLB在近3个季度的外汇盈利如下：
FY15Q3 (7月至9月) – RM4.27m
FY15Q4 (10月至12月) – RM0.03m
FY16Q1 (1月至3月) – (RM3.56m)
USD/MYR在FY15Q4时，正处在4.25左右，为何FLB却没有外汇盈利呢？仔细看看USD/MYR的图表，你会发现USD/MYR在FY15Q3时是从3.75暴涨至接近4.50，在FY15Q4时徘徊于4.25左右，在FY16Q1时从4.30暴跌至4.00左右。这说明了只有很大的跌幅和涨幅，才会造成巨大的外汇盈利或亏损。FLB在之前兑换的外汇和之后兑换的外汇，之间的差距就会是所谓的账面外汇盈利或亏损。对于FY16Q2的看法，笔者认为FLB会有外汇盈利，预计在RM1.5m至2m左右。
此外，FLB之前拥有的货运费双重扣税津贴也在2016年被撤销。它在2014年和2015年节省了高达RM3.0m和RM3.8m的税。在失去了双重扣税津贴后，FLB必须依照政府规定的企业税率24%来交税。
在FY16Q1季度报告里，管理层表示FLB目前面对其他生产商的激烈价格竞争。外围因素也充满了挑战，尤其沙巴的最低薪金制度将在7月从RM800提升至RM920。面对这些挑战，FLB将会专注在提高生产量，以降低生产成本。或许这也是FLB仅能做的应对措施吧。值得一提的是，FLB在2015年投入的CAPEX高达RM4.5m，和2013年的RM2.0m和2014年的RM2.7m相比，高出了不少。管理层曾表示FLB将投入资金以购买先进的机械设备，不知这CAPEX是不是投入了这一项。
总结来说，近几年FLB主要依靠扣税津贴和外汇盈利来提升业绩。可是，一旦这2个利好因素消失，恐怕FLB将回去之前FY13的业绩。从生意角度来看，FLB其实并没有真正在成长，也没有在扩展生意。这可解释为何它在FY12-14的业绩都差不多一样。
目前，FLB拥有RM62m的现金。基于FY16的表现预料比FY15来的差，笔者预计FLB将不会再派发15cent股息。保守估计股息应该是和FY13和FY14的8cent一样。以目前的股价RM1.71来计算，股息率是4.68%。
至于它的潜在价值，在失去扣税津贴和外汇盈利的利好下，笔者估计FLB的FY16净利会在RM15-16m左右。以103.2m的股数来计算，每股净利将会是15 cent左右。再以PE 10 至 12倍来推算，FLB的潜在价值大约是每股RM1.50 – 1.80。
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Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 28 of 28 comments
RICHE HO....try doing your analysis for LII HEN the same way considering future prospect...excluding the forex effects and growth.
2016-07-05 15:55
Well done, Riche Ho. Can we request you also analyse it for other furniture stocks such as Liihen, Pohuat, Homeritz, Hevea etc for comparison? Tqvm.
2016-07-05 16:18
of course i do think 15 cents div is unlikely to continue, but that's not because of profit going down, even at 10 cents dividend, it will still take 6 years to deplete the current excess cash.
2016-07-05 19:10
Ricky i may go reverse direction, your previous recommendation 90 pct of them
Now in reverse direction
2016-07-05 19:12
There is certainly a major flaw in using a simplistic P/E ratio in relative valuation. It doesn't differentiate a company with plenty of cash in its balance sheet, and one with heaps of debt, both having the same business and same PE valuation.
Here is why.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/84689.jsp
And it is glaring.
2016-07-05 22:23
Dalam gurau ada senda..
Dalam senyum ada tawa..
Dalam suka ada duka..
itu lah group kita
Cuma..
Jangan ikut hati luka
Jangan difikir salah sapa
Jangan di ungkit Pahala Dosa..
Anggaplah ruang bertemu kata..
Kata sekadar penghibur belaka..
Moga Silaturrahim tetap ceria
Menunggu Shawal yg bakal tiba
SELAMAT MEYAMBUT HARI RAYA YANG AKAN MENJELANG TIBA ....
MAAF ZAHIR BATIN....
2016-07-05 22:48
Riche, you have omitted to value the net cash position of the company. Based on that and the normalised EPS, I think the company is currently undervalued.
2016-07-05 23:14
aduh...lihat duit berkata...
I udah nak bertapa.
may the TAO be with you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1Bc1yrgq0
2016-07-05 23:29
This is wrong wrong because flbhd is a small company it's impossible to have such P/E ratio!
2016-07-06 14:58
how about its cash? its debt? its earning yield? its roic? and its free cash flow most importantly. Analysis purely based on PE? I've been following your article and i am sure you can do better than that. This article is too superficial. Try to perform a calculation with dcf. You will find the value there.
2016-07-06 19:00
Capital expenditure is a peanut when you compare its Net cash inflow generated from operating activities. Fyi, the company has generated cash inflow of RM 33.5 million. Please supply more information for comparison purpose la...if not where you want direct the reader after reading?
Please look at the company net cash flow generation from operating activities:
Year 2015 - RM 33.5 million ( Capex RM 4.8 million )
Year 2014 - RM 14.7 million ( Capex RM 2.7 million )
Year 2013 - RM 13.2 million ( Capex RM 2.0 million )
Year 2012 - RM 28.4 million ( Capex RM 1.4 million )
Year 2011 - RM 7.9 million ( Capex RM 1.7 million )
" 值得一提的是，FLB在2015年投入的CAPEX高达RM4.5m，和2013年的RM2.0m和2014年的RM2.7m相比，高出了不少。管理层曾表示FLB将投入资金以购买先进的机械设备，不知这CAPEX是不是投入了这一项。"
2016-07-06 21:08
substantial s'holder is dumping due to MYR appreciate affect the FX gain outlook… may need wait MYR stable…
could we say that management good control on money? every single they place and wish to have ripple effect…
2016-07-06 21:35
Director was dumping the shares? This director has disposed 156,000 shares or 2% of his entire stakes recently. He hold 7% shares of FLBhd only.
2016-07-06 22:36
Particulars of substantial Securities Holder
Name MR KOON YEW YIN
Type of transaction Description of Others Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted (RM)
Disposed 29 Jun 2016
355,600
1.900
Disposed 30 Jun 2016
813,700
1.840
Acquired 01 Jul 2016
732,600
1.800
Acquired 04 Jul 2016
828,800
1.760
2016-07-07 08:43
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jeffbkt
A stock with cash per share of 83 cents and roic > 40% is not fair just simply use pe 10 to evaluate the TP.
2016-07-05 15:32