星洲日報／投資致富‧企業故事
交易员：贸易战拖累成长·未来1年全球或有58次降息
国际大事
（纽约6日讯）彭博新闻报导，美中贸易战恶化，拖累到全球经济成长下修，今年以来全球中行已合计降息达32次，不过，从利率交换（interest-rate swap）市场价格来观察，交易员认为这一波降息潮还不到一半，预测未来1年还有58次降息、合计降息幅度高达16%。
根据国际结算银行（BIS）追踪全球38家中行的数据显示，今年以来全球中行决策官员合计已经降息32次，降息幅度达13.85%；阿根廷中行实行资本管制，未被BIS纳入计算。
利率交换市场交易员的定价显示，假设中行官员仍维持当前的宽松政策轨道，预测未来12个月全球中行还会降息约58次、合计降息幅度高达16个百分点，包括美国联储局（Fed）、欧洲中行（ECB）、日本银行（BOJ）、英格兰银行（BOE）在内。
随着几乎各地利率都在下降，债券殖利率也降低，追逐殖利率的行为正在主导全球固定收益市场，结果是投资人恐被迫把资金投入长天期债券，承受更大风险以赚得较高的报酬。
文章来源 ： 星洲日报 2019-09-06
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2112068.html
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