Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HOMERIZ
Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 06 Dec 2013, 10:19 PM
Tan KW
0 428,440
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | ||||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | ||||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter | ||||||
| Lynch | ||||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is | ||||||
| neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or | ||||||
| financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | ||||||
| Homeriz | ||||||
| My trading plan | ||||||
| I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a gap up on 29/10/2013. | ||||||
| Major resistance is 0.61. | ||||||
| Major support is 0.50 and 0.465. | ||||||
| Target price = 1.20 | ||||||
| Margin of safety = 52% (0.57) | ||||||
| Potential profit gain = 110% (0.57) | ||||||
| Cut loss at 0.465 = 16% | ||||||
| Risk reward ratio at 0.465 cut loss = 1 : 7.2 | ||||||
| Feng Shui element = Wood | ||||||
| Buy Homeriz at 0.555 (5/12/2013). | ||||||
| Homeriz IV Calculation | ||||||
| Fundamental Rating | ||||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 3/3 | 91.67% | ||||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 3/3 | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 3/3 | Current Price | ||||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 2/3 | 0.57 | ||||
| 11/12 | ||||||
| Growth% | ||||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 101014 | |||||
| Latest 4 quarters | 112905 | 11.77% | ||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 15189 | |||||
| Latest 4 quarters | 15118 | -0.47% | ||||
| Proj | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth% | 2014 | Growth% | |
| EPS (Cent) | 5.40 | 7.35 | 7.56 | 2.86% | 14.0 | 85.19% |
| PER | 10.56 | 7.76 | 7.54 | 2.78% | 4.07 | 46.00% |
| NTA | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 13.89% | 0.50 | 21.95% |
| Net Profit | 10812 | 14700 | 15118 | 2.84% | 27800 | 83.89% |
| Equity | 62886 | 72785 | 81403 | 11.84% | 91041 | 11.84% |
| ROE | 19.19% | 20.20% | 18.57% | -8.06% | 30.54% | 64.42% |
| Dividend | 0.6 | 3 | 1 | -66.67% | ||
| Free cash flow | -4427 | 19083 | ||||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | ||||||
| Average Return History | -3.84% | |||||
| 3 yrs Return | 5.22% | |||||
| Proj | ||||||
| Method 1 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| g | 10.00 | 10.00 | ||||
| Y | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 1.12 | 2.07 | ||||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 48.96% | 72.44% | ||||
| Potential gain | 95.92% | 262.81% | ||||
| Method 2 | ||||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | ||||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 1.10 | 1.92 | ||||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 48.18% | 70.31% | ||||
| Potential gain | 92.98% | 236.84% | ||||
| Method 3 | ||||||
| ROE | 18.57% | 30.54% | ||||
| Rr | 8.00% | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 0.41 | 0.50 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 0.95 | 1.91 | ||||
| Current Price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 40.11% | 70.13% | ||||
| Potential gain | 66.98% | 234.82% | ||||
| Method 4 | ||||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | ||||||
| EPS | 0.08 | 0.14 | ||||
| Total equity | 81403 | 91041 | ||||
| Number of shares | 200000 | 200000 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 0.83 | 1.20 | Target price | |||
| Current price | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 31.50% | 52.40% | ||||
| Potential gain | 45.98% | 110.08% | ||||
| Thank you. | ||||||
| Ooi Teik Bee | ||||||
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Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments
Hi Mr OOi,
May I knowwhy you so optimistics with the earning next year for Home? It is double up on earnings.
2013-12-07 12:36
I just base on last quarter result. I will follow up whether next quarter result will be the same or not.
Please note that Latitud and Tguan also show the same good result, hence I am optimistic.
Thank you.
2013-12-07 12:49
I see..Thanks..BTW, for furniture, the result is good during 2H compared to 1H...Home does not show consistent result across quarter..But, the result is best during Q4.
2013-12-07 13:18
Hi Mr Ooi TB, obliged if you could kindly enlighten me what is g in your calculation and how you arrive at g in your method 1,and how do you calculate stock value per share in method 2, and in method 4 the formula, (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5, what is 22.5 and 0.5. I notice, these two figure are fixed in all your calculation.Thanking you in advance.
2013-12-07 19:27
Yes. They are formulae to calculate IV of a stock. g is the return of investment you expect. BLR is around 6%, I put g = 7, slightly higher than BLR.
Please go back to Kcchongnz post to find out. I copy from there.
Thank you.
2013-12-07 21:02
Sorry Mr Ooi TB, I think you mean y=7 which I understand, g has different value for different counters viz: Puncak-WB g=12.17, Latitud g=15.00, Tguan g=15.39, Hevea g=10.00, Homeriz g=10.00, Insas g=21.71, WTK g=2.00, Caely g=16.01, in your calculation.Thanking you in advance for enlightening me.
2013-12-07 23:09
Thank you Mr Ooi for for unselfish contribution. You remind me of Mr KC Chong NZ. He is exactly like you.Perhaps I need to attend your lecture to understand further.
2013-12-08 00:01
Dear bro Ooi, I am keen to learn Ta , can you please recommend a good book for me ?
Tq.
2013-12-08 07:51
Posted by Rose > Dec 8, 2013 07:51 AM | Report Abuse
Dear bro Ooi, I am keen to learn Ta , can you please recommend a good book for me ?
Posted by hepitrade > Dec 8, 2013 08:14 AM | Report Abuse
me too, MR OTB, or any website that can learn TA? thanks
Ans : FYI, I did not learn it through reading book. I attended many courses which is the fastest way to learn. I almost attended all technical courses in KL.
I read through > a million charts, I spend many hours a day to learn to read chart and do many back testing. I also learn it through experience as a remisier for the last 20 years.
Thank you.
2013-12-08 10:18
OTB, i believe your clients must be happy to have such a hardworking remiser.
2013-12-08 14:33
BTW, Mr OOi, Yesterday was a extremely high vol upthrust for Home, the retracement is coming 2 days is a good pick up?
2013-12-10 15:10
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hepitrade
MR OTB, among all counters u recommend, HOMERIZ is the most making money? Tq
2013-12-06 22:36