Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - INARI-WA

 

Dear valued members,          
           
You should be realistic about your goals.           
           
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten."
Peter Lynch           
           
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education
only, It is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer 
representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours  
           
Inari-WA          
           
My trading plan           
I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a breakout at 1.03 on 25/11/2013.  
Major resistance is 1.19.          
Major support is 1.03 and 0.86           
Target price = 1.89          
Margin of safety = 40% (1.14)          
Potential profit gain = 65% (1.14)          
Cut loss at 0.86 = 24%           
Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 2.8          
           
Feng Shui element = Metal          
           
Buy Inari-WA at 1.13 (5/12/2013).           
           
INARI IV Calculation          
        Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years   3/3   91.67%
       
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years   3/3      
        Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years   3/3   1.54
           
Total Positive free Cash flow Year   2/3      
    11/12      
      Growth %    
3 Years Average Turn Over                    180,513 109.31%    
Current 4 Quarters                    377,833      
           
3 Years Average Net Profit                       26,887 106.49%    
Current 4 Quarters                       55,520      
           
    2012 2013 2014 (Q1) Growth
EPS (Cent)   6.06 11.19 14.73 31.64%
PE Ratio   25.41 13.76 10.45 24.03%
NTA   0.25 0.35 0.39 11.43%
Net Profit                       19,887            42,014          55,520 32.15%
Equity                        83,284         157,938       176,810 11.95%
ROE   23.879 26.602 31.40 18.04%
Dividend   2.8 4.5 1.5  
Free cash flow   30,203 -59,084    
           
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)          
Average Return History   82.27%      
3 yrs Return   0.00%      
           
Method 1          
EPS   0.15      
g, %   10.00      
Y   7.00      
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y   2.18      
Current price   1.54      
Margin of Safety   29.22%      
Potential gain   41.29%      
           
Method 2          
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator          
Discount rate    12.00%      
EPS   0.15      
Earning expected to grow (annually)   10.00      
for the next (? Years)   3.0      
before leveling off to an annual growth    3.00      
Calculate Stock Value per share   2.06      
Current price   1.54      
Margin of Safety   25.24%      
Potential gain   33.77%      
           
Warrant          
           
          Margin 
Inari-WA     Target Price Gain % of safety
Expiration date    6/4/2018      
Exercise price    0.38                0.38    
Price of Mother share    1.54 2.06    
Intrinsic value of WA   1.16 1.68    
Actual price of WA   1.14                1.89 65.44% 39.55%
Premium or Discount   -1.30 10.00%    
Gearing   1.35 1.4    
           

 


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3 people like this. Showing 8 of 8 comments

connie

oh yes....thank you so much mr otb :)

2013-12-09 16:27

inwest88

# Ooi- you mentioned that Jaks is related to Puncak and thus will not provide a write-up. However for completeness can you provide the input for Jaks in the following areas - Resistance, Support and Target Price.

2013-12-09 20:46

Ooi Teik Bee

Jaks

The trading plan :
Reason to buy : Market rumour is a takeover target. More job will be awarded on water project.
The last 7 quarter results, there are profits made. No loss at all.
Major resistance = 0.575
Major support = 0.495, 0.455 and 0.42
NTA = 1.01
Target price = 1.10
Margin of safety = 54% (0.51)
Potential profit gain = 116% (0.51)
Cut loss at 0.42 = 18%
Risk reward ratio at 0.42 cut loss = 1 : 6.5

Feng Shui element = Water

Buy Jaks 0.51 (5/12/2013).

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-12-09 21:11

nch218

Great analysis and humble Mr Ooi...not selfish to share..and we all trade at our own risk..

2013-12-09 21:25

nch218

If more projects should be awarded to water project, I still.believe hiaptek should be benefits as well. Mr Ooi, any inputs?

2013-12-09 21:28

Ooi Teik Bee

Hiaptek - Technical chart is very good. However, I think Hiaptek is more toward steel industry rather than Water industry.

My stock selection criteria, minimum potential profit margin is 50%. I do not know Hiaptek can meet my selection criteria or not.

Thank you.

2013-12-09 21:37

nch218

Thanks Mr Ooi...hiaptek also supply to water industry..everytime when engtex move..it follow by hiaptek later
http://www.htgrp.com.my/projects_completed.asp

2013-12-09 21:48

inwest88

# Thanks OoiTB for the posting on Jaks.

2013-12-10 10:02

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