Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HAPSENG-WA
Tan KW
Publish date: Sat, 21 Dec 2013, 10:23 AM
Tan KW
0 428,480
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | |||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | |||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out | |||||
| of ten" Peter Lynch | |||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of | |||||
| education only, it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your | |||||
| dealer representive or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | |||||
| Hapseng-WA | |||||
| My trading plan | |||||
| I like the technical chart of this stock because the up trend is very beautiful, slow and steady. | |||||
| Major resistance is 1.08 | |||||
| Major support is 0.94 and 0.735. | |||||
| Target price = 2.28. | |||||
| Margin of safety = 54% | |||||
| Potential profit gain = 119% | |||||
| Cut loss at 0.72 = 31% | |||||
| Risk reward ratio at 1.35 cut loss = 1 : 3.9. | |||||
| Feng Shui element = Metal/Wood | |||||
| Buy Hapseng-WA at 1.04 (20/12/2013). | |||||
| HapSeng IV Calculation | Par value = 1.00 | ||||
| Fundamental Rating | |||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 10/10 | 62.50% | |||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 4/10 | ||||
| Current Price | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 9/10 | 2.76 | |||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 2/10 | ||||
| 25/40 | |||||
| Growth % | |||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 2,354,133 | 52.08% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 3,580,208 | ||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 281,004 | 102.20% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 568,182 | ||||
| 10 Years Average Operating Activities | 23,554 | 2793.89% | |||
| 2012 Financial year | 681,627 | ||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth | ||
| EPS (Cent) | 18.85 | 19.58 | 27.31 | 39.48% | |
| PE Ratio | 14.64 | 14.10 | 10.11 | 28.30% | |
| NTA | 1.51 | 1.61 | 1.70 | 5.59% | |
| Net Profit | 375,602 | 422,632 | 568,182 | 34.44% | |
| Equity | 3,293,417 | 3,398,641 | 3,382,897 | -0.46% | |
| ROE | 11.405 | 12.435 | 16.80 | 35.07% | |
| Dividend | 4.7 | 6 | 8 | 33.33% | |
| Free cash flow | -492,580 | 510,708 | |||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | |||||
| Average Return History | 9.38% | ||||
| 3 yrs Return | 20.26% | ||||
| Method 1 | |||||
| EPS | 0.27 | ||||
| g, % | 20.26 | ||||
| Y | 7.00 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 6.68 | ||||
| Current price | 2.76 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 58.66% | ||||
| Potential gain | 141.88% | ||||
| Method 2 | |||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | |||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.27 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 20.26 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 4.76 | ||||
| Current price | 2.76 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 42.02% | ||||
| Potential gain | 72.46% | ||||
| Method 3 | |||||
| ROE | 16.80% | ||||
| Rr, % | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 1.7 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 3.57 | Target price | |||
| Current Price | 2.76 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 22.69% | ||||
| Potential gain | 29.35% | ||||
| Method 4 | |||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | |||||
| EPS | 0.27 | ||||
| Total equity | 3382897 | ||||
| Number of shares | 2187375 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 3.08 | ||||
| Current price | 2.76 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 10.47% | ||||
| Potential gain | 11.69% | ||||
| Warrant | |||||
| HapSeng-WA | |||||
| Expiration date | 8/9/2016 | Target Price | |||
| Exercise price | 1.65 | 1.65 | |||
| Price of Mother share | 2.76 | 3.57 | |||
| Intrinsic value of WA | 1.11 | 1.92 | |||
| Actual price of WA | 1.04 | 2.28 | |||
| Premium or Discount | -2.54 | 10.00% | |||
| Gearing | 2.65 | 2.7 | |||
| Target price of Hapseng-WA | 2.28 | ||||
| Current price of Hapseng-WA | 1.04 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 54.39% | ||||
| Potential gain | 119.23% | ||||
| Checklist | Goal | Actual | Remarks | ||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over - any growth ? | > 10% | 52% | Excellent | ||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit - any growth ? | > 10% | 102% | Excellent | ||
| EPS (Cent) - any growth ? | > 10% | 39% | Excellent | ||
| PE Ratio | < = 15 | 10 | Excellent | ||
| ROE | > 10% | 17% | Excellent | ||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold 3 years) | > 10% | 20% | Excellent | ||
| Dividend | 3.0 sen | 8.00 | Excellent | ||
| Free cash flow | Positive | 510,708 | Excellent | ||
| 10 Years Operating Activities - any growth ? | >10% | 2794% | Excellent | ||
| Thank you. | |||||
| Ooi Teik Bee | |||||
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 78 comments
Hi Mr. Ooi, how i can i be your student.?
Please email me the info @ dannychuah17@gmail.com
2013-12-28 11:34
Dear Mr Ooi,
You really gained my respect to provide valuable information to us. I had followed you comment for all the relevant stocks quite sometime. I have to say Thank You and Happy New Year!
2013-12-28 12:00
OTB - I also would like to know how to join your club, be the first to know your stock picks. My email is lhoong68@gmail.com
2013-12-28 12:51
Mr. OTB. Can you please email me the info of your course too? My email is weiyongteo@gmail.com
2014-01-02 13:40
OTB pls ignore and disreguard DaimenLim7 he is total rude and hopeless everyone know this forum is for sharing buy or not is your own choice and at your own risk..i have read your analysis for sometimes it is uselful inhelping me make my Buy call on stock ... Thank you very much..
2014-01-12 09:42
OTB, at least you are honest. You have admitted that you are a front-runner. That's an offence in some countries. I have heard complaints that some of your write-ups are > 7 days late.
2014-01-22 17:44
That's a screwed up behavior from OTB. If he has already bought and then he tells his student, why bother sharing here after 7 days. Look at what happen to Hevea, now poh. Huat, WTK earlier and etc. This is unethical and nobody cares if he share with his student and so on but don't share something outdated to prop up the share for own benefit.
Icon8888 you are definitely right. No wonder I see so many whacking this cunning fella OTB
2014-01-27 21:14
Please read the disclaimer, I did not point a gun at your head to force you to buy. Please talk professionally.
I am not interested to engage in any dispute here.
Thank you.
2014-01-27 21:24
Kita ada master Bonescythe sekarang. Dia punya buy call lagi cun. Pulangan berganda-ganda Grambo. Abang big fan sebab pernah beli buy call master Bonescythe dulu. dia kira semigod abang sekarang.
2014-01-27 21:29
Please act and talk professionally..I m accmulate this stock again at .990 . Mr Ooi just share after 7 days not a very big deal..use your head to think whether make sense or not to invest .
2014-01-27 21:34
OTB's recent call on SILK is damn good. Sometime this old man does make a bit of sense
2014-01-27 21:37
OTB, Geneva gold also didn't put a gun on peoples head to ask them to take the offer. It's still a crime. If there are people like you we need authority to protect the general becoz the way you think is mischievous
2014-01-27 21:40
I never buy shares promoted by OTB. Technical analysis not my cup of tea. Requires strong nerve, which I don't have. I am 100% fundamentals. I don't buy things that I can't see earnings growth
2014-01-27 21:41
Anytime someone preys on people's desperation and greed, it's sinful and con to say the least
2014-01-27 21:42
I see his rationale and irresponsible statement that he didn't point a gun and if you buy he feels indemnified. Thank you and I understand why all the name calling on OTB. I rest my case.
2014-01-27 21:45
I earn cny angpau from silk bought 0.485. Thanks to Mr Ooi buy call.
Mr Ooi, current mkt sentiment, what is your view?
2014-01-27 21:47
Sad then I just lost all respect for you. You think making money is above being responsible. At the 7th day, it could be 50/50 as we se all short term at the moment. You are just dangling the carrot to help yourself . Plain irresponsible.
2014-01-27 21:52
Wakaka. Captain promise bring u newyork. But wrong calculation. Arrive holland. U question,he said never point a gun to u.
2014-01-27 21:55
As I said, I will not argue. Setting the situation you are doing is like a trap for those desperate and for you, you think you are helping but those really despearate are getting it 7 days later which may be the turn of the counter due to the short term changes now. You are just like those corrupted police man who says they are helping you in which case if you pay summons, you will pay a lot more. Thanks again.
2014-01-27 21:58
Every now and then there will be somebody whacking OTB and OTB will fire back.... I have seen it happen so many time. Is it worth it to make a living like that ? I don't envy you OTB
2014-01-27 22:00
Karma don't work in the way where it happens to you only, it may be to your love ones. Don't say it's unfair then
2014-01-27 22:03
Otb very cham... y have to sell recommendation leh..come here blow water enuf la.
2014-01-27 22:05
Posted by joni > Jan 19, 2014 11:24 AM | Report Abuse
Real investors are professional or at least on average.
Any information available are just for reference.
Agreed to disagreed and take your position at your own risk and within your financial means.
2014-01-28 07:34
Sharing of information or knowledge is noble.
Some appreciate but it's so sad some just don't.
We should ignored those who don't.
We needless to explain to difficult questions,
The bad one will finally go in peace.
2014-01-28 10:46
Wishing Mr Ooi Teik Bee a HAPPY, HEALTHY, WEALTHY & PROSPEROUS CNY. May the year of the WOOD HORSE bring HAPPINESS, LUCK & GOOD FORTUNE to you & yr family.
'XIN NIAN KUAI LE' 'XIN XIANG SHI CHENG' 'SUI SUI PING AN' 'GONG XI FA
CAI'
2014-01-30 06:48
My sincere wish to Mr Ooi Teik Bee to attain GOOD FORTUNE, HAPPINESS, MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL, BRING LOTS OF GOOD HEALTH to you & your family.
2014-01-30 07:03
Wishing Mr.Ooi Teik Bee and family A Very Happy And Prosperous New Year..Gong Xi Fa Cai.
2014-01-30 11:31
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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2013-12-28 09:21