Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - TAS
Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 10 Dec 2013, 10:02 PM
Tan KW
0 502,378
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | |||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | |||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." | |||||
| Peter Lynch | |||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education | |||||
| only, It is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer | |||||
| representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | |||||
| TAS | |||||
| My trading plan | |||||
| I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a breakout at 0.93 on 22/10/2013. | |||||
| Major resistance is 1.26. | |||||
| Major support is 1.01 and 0.93 | |||||
| Target price = 1.71 | |||||
| Margin of safety = 36% | |||||
| Potential profit gain = 55% | |||||
| Cut loss at 0.93 = 15% | |||||
| Risk reward ratio at 0.93 cut loss = 1 : 3.6 | |||||
| Feng Shui element = Water | |||||
| Buy TAS at 1.10 (10/12/2013). | |||||
| TAS IV Calculation | |||||
| Fundamental Rating | |||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 5/5 | 60.00% | |||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 1/5 | ||||
| Current Price | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 3/5 | 1.10 | |||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 3/5 | ||||
| 12/20 | |||||
| Growth % | |||||
| 5 Years Average Turn Over | 110,832 | 35.22% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 149,868 | ||||
| 5 Years Average Net Profit | 8,472 | 127.60% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 19,282 | ||||
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014(Q1) | Growth | ||
| EPS (Cent) | 6.34 | 7.65 | 10.96 | 43.27% | |
| PE Ratio | 17.35 | 14.38 | 10.04 | 30.20% | |
| NTA | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 5.88% | |
| Net Profit | 11,198 | 13,455 | 19,282 | 43.31% | |
| Equity | 141,342 | 152,253 | 161,423 | 6.02% | |
| ROE | 7.923 | 8.837 | 11.95 | 35.17% | |
| Dividend | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow | 492 | -8,383 | |||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | |||||
| Average Return History | 5.67% | ||||
| 3 yrs Return | 30.06% | ||||
| Method 1 | |||||
| EPS | 0.11 | ||||
| g, % | 15.00 | ||||
| Y | 7.00 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 2.14 | ||||
| Current price | 1.1 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 48.49% | ||||
| Potential gain | 94.15% | ||||
| Method 2 | |||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | |||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.11 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 15.00 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 1.71 | Target price | |||
| Current price | 1.1 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 35.67% | ||||
| Potential gain | 55.45% | ||||
| Method 3 | |||||
| ROE | 11.95% | ||||
| Rr, % | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 0.9 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 1.34 | ||||
| Current Price | 1.1 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 18.18% | ||||
| Potential gain | 22.22% | ||||
| Method 4 | |||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | |||||
| EPS | 0.11 | ||||
| Total equity | 152253 | ||||
| Number of shares | 180002 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 1.44 | ||||
| Current price | 1.1 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 23.84% | ||||
| Potential gain | 31.29% | ||||
| Checklist | Goal | Actual | Remarks | ||
| 5 Years Average Turn Over - any growth ? | > 10% | 35% | Excellent | ||
| 5 Years Average Net Profit - any growth ? | > 10% | 128% | Excellent | ||
| PE Ratio | < = 15 | = 10 | Good | ||
| ROE | > 10% | 12% | Excellent | ||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold 3 years) | > 10% | 30% | Excellent | ||
| Dividend | 3.0 sen | 2.0 sen | Good | ||
| Free cash flow | Positive | No | Bad | ||
| Thank you. | |||||
| Ooi Teik Bee | |||||
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
heavyth
Hi OTB..u mentioned u won't touch this stock again..???
2014-01-09 20:02