Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB

Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - TAS

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 10 Dec 2013, 10:02 PM
Tan KW
0 428,400
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)

Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp

TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Following Message

 

 
 
Dear valued members,          
           
You should be realistic about your goals.           
           
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten."
Peter Lynch           
           
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education
only, It is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer 
representative or remisier or financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours  
           
TAS          
           
My trading plan           
I like the technical chart of this stock because there is a breakout at 0.93 on 22/10/2013.  
Major resistance is 1.26.          
Major support is 1.01 and 0.93           
Target price = 1.71          
Margin of safety = 36%          
Potential profit gain = 55%           
Cut loss at 0.93 = 15%           
Risk reward ratio at 0.93 cut loss = 1 : 3.6          
           
Feng Shui element = Water          
           
Buy TAS at 1.10 (10/12/2013).           
           
TAS IV Calculation          
        Fundamental Rating
Total Net Profit Years   5/5   60.00%
       
Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years   1/5      
        Current Price
Total Dividend Payout Years   3/5   1.10
           
Total Positive free Cash flow Year   3/5      
    12/20      
      Growth %    
5 Years Average Turn Over                    110,832 35.22%    
Current 4 Quarters                    149,868      
           
5 Years Average Net Profit                         8,472 127.60%    
Current 4 Quarters                       19,282      
           
    2012 2013 2014(Q1) Growth
EPS (Cent)   6.34 7.65 10.96 43.27%
PE Ratio   17.35 14.38 10.04 30.20%
NTA   0.78 0.85 0.90 5.88%
Net Profit                       11,198            13,455          19,282 43.31%
Equity                     141,342         152,253       161,423 6.02%
ROE   7.923 8.837 11.95 35.17%
Dividend   1.5 2.0 0  
Free cash flow   492 -8,383    
           
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)          
Average Return History   5.67%      
3 yrs Return   30.06%      
           
Method 1          
EPS   0.11      
g, %   15.00      
Y   7.00      
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y   2.14      
Current price   1.1      
Margin of Safety   48.49%      
Potential gain   94.15%      
           
Method 2          
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator          
Discount rate    12.00%      
EPS   0.11      
Earning expected to grow (annually)   15.00      
for the next (? Years)   3.0      
before leveling off to an annual growth    3.00      
Calculate Stock Value per share   1.71 Target price    
Current price   1.1      
Margin of Safety   35.67%      
Potential gain   55.45%      
           
Method 3          
ROE   11.95%      
Rr, %   8.00%      
NTA   0.9      
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA   1.34      
Current Price   1.1      
Margin of Safety   18.18%      
Potential gain   22.22%      
           
Method 4          
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5          
EPS   0.11      
Total equity   152253      
Number of shares   180002      
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5   1.44      
Current price   1.1      
Margin of Safety   23.84%      
Potential gain   31.29%      
           
Checklist   Goal Actual Remarks  
5 Years Average Turn Over - any growth ?   > 10% 35% Excellent  
5 Years Average Net Profit - any growth ?   > 10% 128% Excellent  
PE Ratio   < = 15 = 10 Good  
ROE   > 10% 12% Excellent  
Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold 3 years)   > 10% 30% Excellent  
Dividend   3.0 sen 2.0 sen Good  
Free cash flow   Positive  No  Bad  
           
Thank you.          
           
Ooi Teik Bee          
           
           
TAS (5149)
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

heavyth

Hi OTB..u mentioned u won't touch this stock again..???

2014-01-09 20:02

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