Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - HEVEA
Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 06 Dec 2013, 10:21 PM
Tan KW
0 428,460
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | ||||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | ||||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter | ||||||
| Lynch | ||||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is | ||||||
| neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or | ||||||
| financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | ||||||
| Hevea | ||||||
| My trading plan | ||||||
| I like the technical chart of this stock because it is a breakout chart. | ||||||
| Major resistance is 0.98. | ||||||
| Major support is 0.90 and 0.80. | ||||||
| Target price = 2.96 | ||||||
| Margin of safety = 69% (0.91) | ||||||
| Potential profit gain = 226% (0.91) | ||||||
| Cut loss at 0.80 = 15.5% | ||||||
| Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 14.4 | ||||||
| Feng Shui element = Wood | ||||||
| Buy Hevea at 0.94 (5/12/2013). | ||||||
| HEVEA IV Calculation | ||||||
| Fundamental Rating | ||||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 10/10 | 78.95% | ||||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 9/9 | |||||
| Current Price | ||||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 5/10 | 0.91 | ||||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 6/9 | |||||
| 30/38 | ||||||
| Growth % | ||||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 257,743 | 44.90% | ||||
| Current 4 Quarters | 373,463 | |||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 11,408 | 80.92% | ||||
| Current 4 Quarters | 20,639 | |||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth | |||
| EPS (Cent) | 3.69 | 17.12 | 22.83 | 33.35% | ||
| PE Ratio | 24.66 | 5.32 | 3.99 | 25.01% | ||
| NTA | 2.15 | 2.3 | 2.45 | 6.52% | ||
| Net Profit | 3,341 | 15,477 | 20,639 | 33.35% | ||
| Equity | 194,022 | 208,595 | 221,283 | 6.08% | ||
| ROE | 1.722 | 7.42 | 9.33 | 25.70% | ||
| Dividend | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow | 23,014 | 39,037 | ||||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | ||||||
| Average Return History | -10.33% | |||||
| 3 yrs Return | 13.95% | |||||
| Method 1 | ||||||
| EPS | 0.23 | |||||
| g, % | 10.00 | |||||
| Y | 7.00 | |||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 3.37 | |||||
| Current price | 0.91 | |||||
| Margin of Safety | 73.02% | |||||
| Potential gain | 270.58% | |||||
| Method 2 | ||||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | ||||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | |||||
| EPS | 0.23 | |||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 10.00 | |||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | |||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | |||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 3.16 | |||||
| Current price | 0.91 | |||||
| Margin of Safety | 71.20% | |||||
| Potential gain | 247.25% | |||||
| Method 3 | ||||||
| ROE | 9.33% | |||||
| Rr, % | 8.00% | |||||
| NTA | 2.54 | |||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 2.96 | Target price | ||||
| Current Price | 0.91 | |||||
| Margin of Safety | 69.28% | |||||
| Potential gain | 225.52% | |||||
| Method 4 | ||||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | ||||||
| EPS | 0.23 | |||||
| Total equity | 221283 | |||||
| Number of shares | 90400 | |||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 3.55 | |||||
| Current price | 0.91 | |||||
| Margin of Safety | 74.34% | |||||
| Potential gain | 289.67% | |||||
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| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 18 of 19 comments
Hi Mr Ooi,
Is it next year wood element is strong, you decided to invest more on wood industry? So far does this strategy work for you?
2013-12-06 23:00
So, next year the strongest element is water, followed by metal and wood?
Particleboard and MDF industry is going some downhill...due to cost of materials...You think it can be reverted?
2013-12-07 11:24
Please use both TA and FA to trade. Feng Shui element is just used as a guide only. I quote it is to remind me in my selection.
Thank you.
2013-12-07 11:29
Mr Ooi,
I have checked both Hevea and Home technically. Both are having same pattern with some background that is showing serious sign of weakness. The chances of breaking out is high due to very low vol consolidation.
Do you have the same view ?
2013-12-08 23:12
Yes, vol for Hevea is a bit low. But the shakeout if confirmed with upbar could be forming higher low. Then, the chart is ready for breakout.
For Home, the longer consolidation period coupled with a sudden high vol upbar last week, is a good sign the chart is waking up.
Overall,both chart giving a very similar style/pattern. ANyhow, if both also breakout, it will be great for you.
2013-12-08 23:46
The price of Hevea crossed 1.00 convincingly, coupled with volume, it is a good buy sign now.
Thank you.
2013-12-10 12:24
To recap:- To inform you what I think of Havea so that you will be careful with this counter,
(1)Even 20,000 shares want to sell..these scrooge directors..shame..shame..No $$$ for lunch kah??? Yoong family lunch can be on me...kikikikikikikkkkkkkkkkkkk
16/01/2014 22:53
(2)The value of Hevea shares reflect on the character and standing of the ppl who own the company.LOL
16/01/2014 22:55
(3)Don't care what TA,FA,BA says....DON'T repeat DON'T buy any stock when and where directors are consistently selling.....LESSON NO.1,2,3
17/01/2014 11:26
(4)Brian Boon....Hevea will not rise if the directors don't STOP selling...u get me?
You buy,they sell...How Leh ???????????
I'm sorry to post these and earlier postings concerning directors selling consistently because they are BAD FOR SENTIMENT and that is the truth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No guru/sifu should attempt to recommend if the directors are not stopping their cheap sales now unless you are with them!!!!!!.
17/01/2014 11:42
20/01/2014 14:36
2014-01-20 23:17
making trading mistake is normal. what is not normal is you already realize you made a mistake, but still continue to live in a state of illusion and ride the losses like a champion.
ever wonder 90% lose money in stocks? (or socks)
2014-01-20 23:20
When Instacom directors sold down their shares consistently,RHB downgraded Instacom right away inspite of CEO telling they are only getting angpow $$$$$. Pl check for truth...
2014-01-20 23:24
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ooi Teik Bee
Mr Tan,
In the EPS row, please delete 363.96.
Thank you.
Ooi
2013-12-06 22:24