Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - WTK
Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 06 Dec 2013, 10:10 PM
Tan KW
0 510,292
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | |||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | |||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter | |||||
| Lynch | |||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is | |||||
| neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or | |||||
| financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | |||||
| WTK | |||||
| My trading plan | |||||
| I like this stock is because of economy recovery in Japan. | |||||
| When Japan economy was very good in 70 and 80, the stock price of WTK IS > 10.00 | |||||
| The technical chart of WTK is very weak, I buy near support level. | |||||
| I forecast the timber price will go up in 2014. Downside risk of the stock price is low. | |||||
| Major resistance is 1.40. | |||||
| Major support is 1.15 and 1.02. | |||||
| Target price = 1.85 | |||||
| Margin of safety = 33% (1.24) | |||||
| Potential profit gain = 49% (1.24) | |||||
| Cut loss at 1.02 = 16% | |||||
| Risk reward ratio at 1.67 cut loss = 1 : 3.2 | |||||
| Feng Shui element = Wood | |||||
| Buy WTK at 1.22 (5/12/2013). | |||||
| WTK IV Calculation | |||||
| Fundamental Rating | |||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 9/10 | 87.50% | |||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 10/10 | ||||
| Current Price | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 10/10 | 1.24 | |||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 6/10 | ||||
| 35/40 | |||||
| Growth % | |||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 672,015 | 6.05% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 712,655 | ||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 55,544 | -18.00% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 45,548 | ||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth | ||
| EPS (Cent) | 15.8 | 10.28 | 10.49 | 2.04% | |
| PE Ratio | 7.85 | 12.06 | 11.82 | 2.00% | |
| NTA | 2.63 | 2.81 | 2.87 | 2.14% | |
| Net Profit | 68,636 | 44,670 | 64,330 | 44.01% | |
| Equity | 1,143,227 | 1,220,240 | 1,247,220 | 2.21% | |
| ROE | 6.004 | 3.661 | 5.16 | 40.89% | |
| Dividend | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow | -9,047 | 86,299 | |||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | |||||
| Average Return History | 2.74% | ||||
| 3 yrs Return | 1.96% | ||||
| Method 1 | |||||
| EPS | 0.10 | ||||
| g, % | 2.00 | ||||
| Y | 7.00 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 0.76 | ||||
| Current price | 1.24 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | -63.53% | ||||
| Potential gain | -38.85% | ||||
| Method 2 | |||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | |||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.10 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 2.00 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 1.11 | ||||
| Current price | 1.24 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | -11.71% | ||||
| Potential gain | -10.48% | ||||
| Method 3 | |||||
| ROE | 5.16% | ||||
| Rr, % | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 2.87 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 1.85 | Target Price | |||
| Current Price | 1.24 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 33.01% | ||||
| Potential gain | 49.29% | ||||
| Method 4 | |||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | |||||
| EPS | 0.10 | ||||
| Total equity | 1247220 | ||||
| Number of shares | 438014 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 2.59 | ||||
| Current price | 1.24 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 52.17% | ||||
| Potential gain | 109.07% | ||||
| Thank you. | |||||
| Ooi Teik Bee | |||||
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| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 9 of 10 comments
There is a typing error, the major resistance for WTK should be 1.40.
Mr Tan, please amend it.
Thank you inwest88.
2013-12-07 11:19
The technical chart is very weak, however, I still have confidence this stock will perform in 2014. The reasons are as follows :-
1. Sale in USD. Weakening of Ringgit will improve profit.
2. There is a change of law in Japan, consuming of wood product will increase.
3. Japanese economy is on recovery stage. Demand for timber product is high.
The stock price is at support now. Should hold well.
Thank you.
2013-12-21 11:14
The chart will be good after the price closes > 1.26. The sale is in USD, hence this stock will benefit on weakening of RM. Thank you.
2013-12-30 15:46
WTK is for long term, please avoid buy on contra. It is not a recommendation to buy, please do not blame me. I am still watching whether 1.27 can stay firm. If not, still cannot buy. Thank you.
2013-12-30 20:50
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
inwest88
# Morning OoiTB - you mentioned the major resistance for WTK is 0.98 - something amiss here !
2013-12-07 11:12