Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB
Stock Pick Year 2014 - OTB - PUNCAK-WB
Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 06 Dec 2013, 10:34 PM
Tan KW
0 428,460
Stock Pick Year 2014 from Mr. Ooi Teik Bee (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/tbooi1168.jsp)
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
Portfolio: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25099.jsp
TOC: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2014/42879.jsp
| Dear valued members, | |||||
| You should be realistic about your goals. | |||||
| "In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter | |||||
| Lynch | |||||
| Disclaimer: Please be informed that the following mentioned stocks / symbols are solely for the purpose of education only; it is | |||||
| neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your dealer representative or remisier or | |||||
| financial adviser. Please buy at your own risk. Final decision is yours | |||||
| Puncak-WB | |||||
| My trading plan | |||||
| Major resistance is 2.55. | |||||
| Major support is 2.10, 1.89 and 1.61. | |||||
| Target price = 4.74 | |||||
| Margin of safety = 62% | |||||
| Potential profit gain = 116% | |||||
| Cut loss at 1.61 = 26% | |||||
| Risk reward ratio at 1.61 cut loss = 1 : 4.4. | |||||
| Feng Shui element = Water | |||||
| Buy Puncak-WB at 2.19. | |||||
| Puncak IV Calculation | |||||
| Fundamental Rating | |||||
| Total Net Profit Years | 10/10 | 65.00% | |||
| Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years | 6/10 | ||||
| Current Price | |||||
| Total Dividend Payout Years | 7/10 | 3.17 | |||
| Total Positive free Cash flow Year | 3/10 | ||||
| 26/40 | |||||
| Growth % | |||||
| 10 Years Average Turn Over | 1,665,718 | 10.02% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 1,832,684 | ||||
| 10 Years Average Net Profit | 127,574 | 49.05% | |||
| Current 4 Quarters | 190,152 | ||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Growth | ||
| EPS (Cent) | 2.28 | 58.2 | 46.49 | -20.12% | |
| PE Ratio | 139.04 | 5.45 | 6.82 | -25.19% | |
| NTA | 0.18 | 1.24 | 4.29 | 245.97% | |
| Net Profit | 9,320 | 238,082 | 190,152 | -20.13% | |
| Equity | 1,327,479 | 1,584,446 | 1,755,373 | 10.79% | |
| ROE | 11.405 | 12.435 | 10.83 | -12.89% | |
| Dividend | 4.7 | 5 | 8 | 0.00% | |
| Free cash flow | -37,193 | -66,752 | |||
| Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold) | |||||
| Average Return History | 1.70% | ||||
| 3 yrs Return | 12.17% | ||||
| Method 1 | |||||
| EPS | 0.46 | ||||
| g, % | 12.17 | ||||
| Y | 7.00 | ||||
| IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y | 7.82 | ||||
| Current price | 3.17 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 59.45% | ||||
| Potential gain | 146.64% | ||||
| Method 2 | |||||
| Discounted Cash Flows Calculator | |||||
| Discount rate | 12.00% | ||||
| EPS | 0.46 | ||||
| Earning expected to grow (annually) | 12.17 | ||||
| for the next (? Years) | 3.0 | ||||
| before leveling off to an annual growth | 3.00 | ||||
| Calculate Stock Value per share | 6.67 | ||||
| Current price | 3.17 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 52.47% | ||||
| Potential gain | 110.41% | ||||
| Method 3 | |||||
| ROE | 10.83% | ||||
| Rr, % | 8.00% | ||||
| NTA | 4.29 | ||||
| IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA | 5.81 | Target price | |||
| Current Price | 3.17 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 45.42% | ||||
| Potential gain | 83.20% | ||||
| Method 4 | |||||
| (22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5 | |||||
| EPS | 0.46 | ||||
| Total equity | 1755373 | ||||
| Number of shares | 411258 | ||||
| (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 | 6.68 | ||||
| Current price | 3.17 | ||||
| Margin of Safety | 52.56% | ||||
| Potential gain | 110.78% | ||||
| Warrant | |||||
| Margin | |||||
| Puncak-WB | Target Price | Gain % | of safety | ||
| Expiration date | 20/07/2018 | ||||
| Exercise price | 1.00 | 1.65 | |||
| Price of Mother share | 3.17 | 5.81 | |||
| Intrinsic value of WB | 2.17 | 4.16 | |||
| Actual price of WB | 2.19 | 4.74 | 116.48% | 62.31% | |
| Premium or Discount | 0.63 | 10.00% | |||
| Gearing | 1.45 | 1.4 | |||
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| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 8 of 8 comments
I also notice thier EPS for the 1st three Quarters are not better than the corresponding 1st 3 Qtr in 2012.
2013-12-08 14:28
Please read the below link.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/race/43295.jsp
It is not only water, you have oil and gas piping project.
Thank you.
2013-12-14 07:35
TQ OTB. You r very kind. Nice pick. Chinese saying 'the older the Ginger, the more 辣 it is.'
2013-12-14 10:46
Hi Mr Ooi you recommend to buy at 2.19 but now price is 2.57(16/12/13) .Is it still worth to buy ?? tq
2013-12-16 20:43
although eps till date is not as good as last year due end of previous t&i prjs come to an end, but with new t&i prjs secured, 2014 fy eps may break 2012 record. if water deal sealed, u can expect eps to up 1 fold at least, not to mention div. still 1 more q to go for 2013, total will not b far from 2012. affin suggested a floor price of 3.55 base on conservative valuation. puncak still trade at a very attractive level atm. yr $ yr choice!
2013-12-16 21:49
What is your latest view on this counter now with the latest news & price drop..!!!
2014-01-15 15:05
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
mmk79
OTB, mind to tell any reasons why u choose Puncak as one of ur 2014 portfolio apart from news that Selangor govt intend to buyover it?
2013-12-08 14:26