unbelievable
AAX - WHY NO ONE KNOWS HOW TO READ QR REPORT.....
unbelievable
Publish date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 09:59 PM
AAX just released the QR report few hours ago and so many hu-ha in the forum.
Just want to share my understanding based on facts:
1. By end of Q1 AAX recorded short term and long term borrowings at 287m and 959m respectively and by end of Q2 now AAX recorded short term and long term borrowings at 186m and 940m respectively (total reduction of 120m in just 1 quarter) with additional profit of 1m compared to lost of 132m same period last year.
2. Total cash flow increased from 239m to 282m after reduction of 120m borrowings
3. Year to date EPS recorded at 4.4 compared to last year same period -9.7
4. Year to date profit recorded at 180m compared to lost of 258m same period last year.
5. Avg base fare increased to 526 compared to 393 last year with 160k additional passenger loads in weakest quarter. Expect more to come in Q3 and Q4.
For those that already bought the share at lower price (<0.40), I wonder why would you want to sell it? Unless you want to go through weakest quarter together with AAX (which still not bad at all looking at the statistics) and let the others earn the best quarters (Q3 and Q4). Hahahahahaha...
If you look at the report carefully it is definitely more than 1m profit... hahahahah, for those that don't know how to read report, please stop investing and please gamble at genting.
And with positive news reporting by all The Star, Nanyang and Reuters:
http://www.enanyang.my/news/20160823/%E4%BA%9A%E8%88%AAx%E6%AC%A1%E5%AD%A3%E8%BD%AC%E4%BA%8F%E4%B8%BA%E7%9B%88br-%E8%90%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%A2%9D%E6%B6%A835-2/
http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-airasiax-results-idUSL3N1B42X9
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/08/23/airasia-x-posts-q2-fy16-operating-profit-of-rm20m/
Now I add in some assumption and expectations:
1. Fuel price hedged for entire year 2016 which almost guarantee a profit earning year and compare to last 2 years, it is a huge improvement
2. Positive EPS for 2 consecutive quarters, 1st quarter recorded 4.3 EPS, simply assume 12 EPS for year 2016, do you think the share price will still at 0.40-0.60 level? If it is, please use all your saving to buy this undervalued gem by that time (its not guaranteed, but when peoples start noticing its value, that's how your saving turns into fortune)
3. Imagine the fuel price is still at low level by end of this year, wait till Q3/Q4 this year and AAX hedge the fuel price again at low level for entire year 2017 which almost guarantee another 4 consecutive quarters with positive earnings (9 consecutive quarters with positive EPS share, only in Q2 is 0 EPS, but do you really think it is 0 EPS based on facts I mentioned above), and do you think it will still stay less than RM1? If AAX successfully hedge next year fuel price at low level, this news itself can boost the share to next level.
2. Positive EPS for 2 consecutive quarters, 1st quarter recorded 4.3 EPS, simply assume 12 EPS for year 2016, do you think the share price will still at 0.40-0.60 level? If it is, please use all your saving to buy this undervalued gem by that time (its not guaranteed, but when peoples start noticing its value, that's how your saving turns into fortune)
3. Imagine the fuel price is still at low level by end of this year, wait till Q3/Q4 this year and AAX hedge the fuel price again at low level for entire year 2017 which almost guarantee another 4 consecutive quarters with positive earnings (9 consecutive quarters with positive EPS share, only in Q2 is 0 EPS, but do you really think it is 0 EPS based on facts I mentioned above), and do you think it will still stay less than RM1? If AAX successfully hedge next year fuel price at low level, this news itself can boost the share to next level.
Last but not least, please feel free to challenge my above statements so that we can learn from each other.. Cheers....
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 49 of 49 comments
lol... then help evreryone to read.. otherwise all stupid commments will scare away all the investors
2016-08-23 22:18
Everyone has his own view; but with current result I will not rush in to buy now
2016-08-23 22:53
MrPouper. If u think this is rubbish, pls show ur view and analyst. We r open minded person, can challenge and discuss. Come on....
2016-08-23 23:29
Really amazing. No one here can see. Now the tide has already gone out and all are found swimming naked in only one inch water.
Revenue is Rm888 millions this quarter.
Profit is only a mere 1 million. 1/888 = 0.001%?
What kind of profit is this?
How to account for Rm100 over Billions committed debt?
SEE:
Aircraft purchase Rm106,750,986.113 (Go read 32a latest report)
SEE FURTHER:
Future minimum lease payments - Rm8,539,794,000 (Rm8.539 BILLIONS)(Under 32b)
With MAS also now going into price war how to generate profit to pay the Rm100 Billion aircraft debt. And how to even pay the Rm8.5 Billions (minimum) lease payment.
How come you all don't know simple maths?
Better put your money in FD. Stop playing with fire.
2016-08-23 23:30
Exactly what I have been saying ! As soon as they anounced the purchase of all those aircraft it did not add up. No money to buy or lease them and no profit except a tiny figure that you could make by selling car parts !
2016-08-23 23:38
Aax all the while in bad financial state. Even during the last quarter their balance sheet was bad. That why it is priced at 40 sen. If AAX financial state was healthy do you think it will still be trading at 45 sen? It should be traded around 70 sen.
2016-08-24 00:35
Cool and relax , don't fight and don't use bad words here . Whatever it is our Tony still get richer and brokers still get their commission. Our TG has done a great job , he is really a function CEO. We invest and trade , share your opinion , ni need to quarrel . This is stock market .whatever we feel does not always correct at all time.
2016-08-24 00:44
Thumbs up unbelievable!!
To the contrarian, Just sell if you are not confident and happy with the qrt result..i believe there are a few who actually are not so pleased as the earning is too low. Waiting for pullback :)
I still believe the onthe turnaround of its management strategy, will buy on dip for long term..
2016-08-24 08:18
1 million is rubbish earnings for aax .
Higher earnings is definitely expected for a stock that went up from 0.155 to a high of 0.495
Stop dreaming lol.
2016-08-24 09:36
competition my friend..now even malindo's business class is cheaper than aaX econ seat..low fuel benefits the entire industry not just AA..Investers are seeing qualitative data not accounting numbers..
2016-08-24 10:05
So many bullshit from "unbelievable", I dare him to collect AAX at current price...keep lying to himself.
2016-08-24 10:10
>>>>AAX - WHY NO ONE KNOWS HOW TO READ QR REPORT.....
Author: unbelievable | Publish date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016, 09:59 PM <<<< It is obvious the person who wrote this article doesn't know how difficult it is to run an airline. :-) The smarter thing to do is to know "where you are going to be killed" and knowing this, to avoid this altogether.
2016-08-24 10:12
Regardless whether you believe AAX has turn-around, doing very good considering all, or read the report correctly or vice versa; bottom line majority ppl got caught off guard whether is the QR report or the market reaction.
Otherwise you would recommend buy few week earlier before the QR release rally; sell last week when it peak; buy-back when market over-react with QR result like now where price plunged; keep if till it re-bounce for favorable result in 3QR & 4QR if you are confident of AAX for long term investment right?
Nobody recommend such recommendation or foresee such thing right? So today's result is not an expected result or reaction from the market for majority ppl. Otherwise you would have profited already, plan for more future earning potentials instead of paper loss now.
2016-08-24 10:45
When up from 16c to 40c, many praise.
When down from 49c to 41.5c, many condemn
The reaction from forum is the result of market reaction. Very interesting. ヾ｜￣ー￣｜ﾉ
2016-08-24 10:57
I still maintain this stock will be 55c after the Q3 & Q4 results. Time frame Feb 2017. Holding and waiting is the name of the game.Speculating and trying to make money tomorrow better go to Genting. bought Panamy in 2010 @ rm13, Latitude in 2014 @ 2.73 and Aeon Cr @ 3.82 in 2010 and still holding. Way to go
2016-08-24 12:12
Why the PBT was negative number but still have $1,019 net profit?
PROFIT/(LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAX = $-9,230
NET PROFIT/(LOSS) = $1,019
2016-08-24 13:11
Well done pputeh. Really good job, but could you have done better if you have traded 3 times for each counter over the years? Cheers.
2016-08-24 17:33
Warren Buffett once explained,
“If a capitalist had been present at Kittyhawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. Seriously, the airline business has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business. You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve got strong labour unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success. In short, investing in airlines is nuts.”
2016-08-24 20:10
Stock: [AAX-CX]: AAX-CX: CW AIRASIA X BHD (MACQ)
calvintaneng WHOA
DROPPED 70%?
SOMEBODY GONNA BURNT BY PLAYING WITH FIRE!!!
NEXT TIME BE...
1 comment Aug 25, 09:39 AM
AAX-CX CRASHED BY 70%!!!!
A FORE WARNING THAT AAX MIGHT ALSO FOLLOW!!
BETTER GET OUT OF AAX AS FAST AS YOU CAN AND RUN FOR YOUR LIFE NOW!!
2016-08-25 09:45
if you confident that aax make better in next quarter, why don't you take profit first at high and then buy back and hold at low when ppl throw???... this will double your profit..
2016-08-25 12:41
the verdict.
the author is the one who doesnt know how to read the report.
everyone else knew and throwing to markets.
laughdieme liao.
2016-08-25 12:56
Hello all.. wow, so good response ah this article... aiyah, I'm just helping to interpret the report ma, I also hope everyone earn money 1, but big sharks don't allow we all to earn and play pump & dump... this 1 I have no control leh (although I wish I have so that I can become big shark :D )
Still the same comment lar, I wonder why you want to go through weakest quarter together with AAX (which still not bad at all looking at the statistics) and let the others earn the best quarters (Q3 and Q4)..
But sadly, market is always emotional driven not fact driven for short term play..
I appreciate all the comments :) This article has flagged as top post for 2 days continuously already... hahaha
My holding cost quite low, and I just sold half (my emotion also very sad because I run too slow for this half portion, fact lose to emotion), you guys continue throw lo, then I can buy back the another half later (maybe at 25 sen) hehehehe... Cheers and Good luck!
2016-08-25 17:24
The sky is nt always blue with higher fare sold everyday. Pls take note higher fare better margin n coming quarter load factor will drop drastically due to consumer looking for alternatif competitor fare.
2016-08-25 21:51
Unbelievable,be honest this RM1M profit really can't attract and convince the investors, and with 75% load factor is merely to breakeven. I am expecting around 85% of Load factor in 3rd Q, and with that and 2 new planes, the profit margin can be RM150M around. This will bring the investors back until 3rd. I run fast for 350,000 lot at 0.475, but i kept 100,000 but also sold out at 0.415 and these leverage now all in Airasia for brighter margin in short term. I will be back, AAX.
2016-08-25 22:27
Go for it AAX .The greatest airline turnaround in 2016.
Just wait for 3rd and 4th Quarters results due in End Nov 15 and end Feb17 respectively.
2016-09-16 23:29
I have analyst for the last 2 weeks going thru all the past 8 quarterly AAX results in all aspects convincing that a great turnaround is in place.
There will be big surprise for PAT and EPS for FY 2016.
2016-09-16 23:40
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