THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

A NEW FINANCIAL STORM IS BREWING. Please Take Cover in Tsunami Sheltered Stocks Now (Calvin Tan)

calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 05 Dec 2016, 12:03 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,852
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi Guys/Gals,

 

The Rise of Donald Trump is ushering in a tectonic change in US's future direction:

As Trump's promised in his Election Manifesto:

 

1) Bring Back Jobs to American Heartland

2) Bring back US Factories to American Soil

3) Bring back US Trillion Dollars kept  oversea by giving Companies reprieve - only a 10% tax.

4) Impose Tarif on Foreign Imports into the USA & for China tariff as high as 45%

5) Tell Chna not to manipulate renminbi.

 

All these & more point to a resurging of Nativitism, deglobalisation & protectionism. It will be good for USA short term - but bad for its longer term prospects. It is short term gain with long term pain & consequences. 

Now Trump has stopped Carrier from shifting 1,000 jobs to Mexico, another 300 more being spoken to. Last night Trump again threatened 35% tax for all who defy order by shifting production oversea & re export to the US.

Ha! The restless Trump fired another salvo against China today

 

See

Trump picks Twitter fight with China

WASHINGTON: US President-elect Donald Trump fired a Twitter broadside at China on Sunday, accusing the Asian giant of currency manipulation and military expansionism in the South China Sea.

The taunt came two days after Trump risked offending Beijing by accepting a call from the Taiwanese president, and heralded the prospect of a trade battle between the world's largest economies.

China was a frequent target of Trump's during his presidential campaign and, as he prepares to take office next month, every sign points to his taking an aggressive line with Beijing.

"Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into their country (the US doesn't tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea?" he demanded, adding: "I don't think so!"

China is the United States' largest trading partner, but America ran a US$366 billion (RM1.6 trillion) deficit with Beijing in goods and services in 2015, up 6.6% on the year before.

US politicians often accuse China of artificially depressing its currency, the renminbi, in order to boost its exports – its value has fallen by around 15% in the past two-and-half years.

Trump has vowed to formally declare China a "currency manipulator" on the first day of his presidency, which would oblige the US Treasury to open negotiations with Beijing on allowing the renminbi to rise.

With China holding about a trillion dollars in US government debt, Washington would have little leverage in such talks, but the declaration would harm ties and boost the prospect of a trade war.

China charges an average 15.6% tariff on US agricultural imports and nine percent on other goods, according to the World Trade Organisation.

Chinese farm products pay 4.4% and other goods 3.6% when coming into the United States.

On Friday, Trump courted Chinese anger by accepting a congratulatory call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen.

China regards self-ruling Taiwan as part of its own territory awaiting reunification, and any US move implying support for independence would gravely offend Beijing.

Trump's incoming vice president, Mike Pence, played down the significance of the call, describing it as a courtesy, and said any new policy on China would be decided after his inauguration.

China responded cautiously to the call, with state media putting it down to Trump's "inexperience". — AFP

 
All these signs are ominous indeed!
So Calvin now tells all to protect yourselves by Hiding in Tsunami Sheltered Investments:
These are some of the stocks Calvin already recommended ahead of time
1) GLC Linked Stocks as GE14 is now on. Top pick is DRB Hicom
2) Defensive utilities like PBA (water is basic necessity of life), YTL Power, Opcom (for year 2007 before Lehman's Brothers' hit,  Calvin sold all his shares except OPCOM.) Opcom already got 20 cts cash for Cash pay out.
3) All Oil Palm Plantation Stocks as Year 2017/2018 will push CPO prices to new high due to continuing El Nino & La Nina Effect
See Calvin's post on Tsunami Sheltered Investments:

HOW TO ESCAPE A FINANCIAL TSUNAMI

As We Know By Now There Is Such A Phenomena Called Tsunami. 230,000 people died in the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami & Year 2011 another 20,000 got killed by the Japanese Tsunami.

A Financial Meltdown is likened to A Tsunami in its Similarities – Swift, Sweeping & Destructive With Little Time For Escape.

So We Need To Prepare Well A Head of Time.

There Are 7 Ways To Prepare For A Financial Crisis Just Like 7 Ways Of Protection Against A Future Tsunami

1) BUILD HIGH SEA WALL ALONG THE COAST

In certain part of Japan Huge Walls Are Built To Prevent The Next Tsunami from crashing in. So we must build up Walls against the onslaught against another Financial Crisis. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia Have Built Up A Huge Wall of Foreign Currency RESERVES Against any future onslaught by Currency Speculators

2) RUN TO HIGHER GROUND

At the sound of siren – leave everything and Run To Hill or Higher Ground.
Park Money where there is higher level of safety. Put money in safest instrument like bonds, Safe & Sound Banks Like Public Bank in Malaysia. Also park money in safe countries like Switzerland and Singapore.

3) Stay Inland or Live As Far Away From The Sea As Possible

Stay away from all kinds of investments with exposure to danger if you can. Just hold on to the safety of diversified Cash in Different Currencies. Return OF capital is now far more important than return ON capital.
So stay safe.

4) BUILD SOLID BUILDINGS WITH STRONG FOUNDATIONS.

If you really need to live and work by the shores as a calling like Fishermen, Sea Food Manufacturing or all things related to the Sea then Invest More On A Stronger Building. When Tsunami hits Your Building Will Stand Tall & Be A Place of Refuge While All Other Rickety Buildings Are Swept Clean Away Into The Sea.

In Investments seek out Rock Solid Companies with High NTA (Net Tangible Assets). These Rock Solid Stocks or Businesses With High CASH RESERVES Will Withstand any Financial Crisis.

5) GO ABROAD TO SAFER COUNTRIES

This is What Some Japanese Are Doing. They Have Moved To Taman Molek, bought up entire block of Condo & called it
“LITTLE JAPAN” Here in Iskandar – Free From Earthquake, Typhoon or Tsunami The Happy People Will Never Again See Anymore Tsunami.

So in Times of The Greatest Danger or Crisis Human & Capital Flight Is Really The Last Resort. That’s how Millions of Chinese left for Foreign Shores Due To The Great Famine in China. CASH Flee Corrupt Nations With Crashing Econominies.

6) STAY AT SEA FOR SAFETY – HEDGE FUND IS THE EQUIVALENT.

Tsunami means “Harbour Waves”. The Waves Are Generated By Earthquakes in Deep Sea. These Waves gather momentum as its speed towards the shorelines. So Ships Out in Open Seas away from the shores are generally safe.

Hedge funds have the ability to buy or short sell shares or anything. One example: During the Asian Financial Crisis Car Sales Vaporized in Malaysia. And Car Prices Collapsed. One Importer has a consignment of New German cars in a bonded Ware House. (A bonded warehouse is a place to keep imported cars where Duty Has Not Been Paid & The Car is not yet officially registered.)

Seeing there is no demand for his New German Cars he decided to sell them to another country not in crisis. To his glad surprise when he bought those German cars the Ringgit was still strong & when he sold the Ringgit has collapsed against the German Deutsche Mark. So he made a surprise windfall from currency difference.
Hedge Funds Have This Ability To Make Money in all markets.

George Soros Quantum Fund Motto

——-“STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE”——- Is An Appropriate Idiom.

 

7) GO AIRBORNE

Those on planes, in hot air balloons or up in helicopters

These not only escape the Tsunami but is able to see and take photos/videos of the ongoing Tsunami. Some even provide vital warnings & rescue works.

These Are Successful Investors Who Are Already Well Prepared Ahead of Time. During The Great Depression of 1929 – 1939, outstanding Tycoons, Churches & Philanthropist gave out free food & soup to the masses.

Wise Investors & Wise Governments Will Be A Help Some Day To Future Ignoramus Who Live In Danger of Another Real or Financial Tsunami.

But why look for hand outs? Be Wise & Prepare Yourselves Now.

A NEW FINANCIAL TSUNAMI IS COMING. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

SO BE PREPARED!

Calvin comments:

High Guys,

In year 2007/8 just before the Lehman Brothers' Crisis I sold off all 130 counters except one.

OPCOM. Opcom was insulated from the Financial Storm due to its moat. It has a monpoly on the fiber optics in Malaysia. And TM is in a sense recession proof - being a utility. During the Great Depression of 1930s John Maynard Keynes' 2 funds did well because he bought into defensive utilities which provide decent dividends.

At 30 cents OPCOM was a great buy. Opcom later gave 22.5 cts Cash Payout.

Now OPCOM has already secured a Rm200 millions new job from TM. So OPCOM will be able to pay another 20 cents dividend. Calvin advocates collecting Opcom below 65 cents as a form of capital protection.

Another counter is MULTICO. Why Multico?

Multico at 83 cents is selling at over 60% discount to NTA over Rm2.00.

Govt has already granted Rm1.5 billions for Proton to pay vendors. So MULTICO is safe. Expect Multico to pay good dividends. Multico is also supported by these 3 things

1) INSIDERS BUYING MULTICO AT 85 CENTS

2) JAPAN 2 EARTHQUAKES WILL CAUSE THEM TO TURN TO MULTICO FOR PARTS

MULTICO IS A TSUNAMI SHETHERED SHARE!

 

 

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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 23 of 23 comments

10bagger10

calvin sifu,

what is lanina, is arrived? what is the effect?

2016-12-05 12:05

calvintaneng

Posted by 10bagger10 > Dec 5, 2016 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

calvin sifu,

what is lanina, is arrived? what is the effect?

La Nina will result in cyclones, tornadoes & floods which will destroy crops like maize, corn & other oil seed shrubs but Oil Palm will survive.

So with scarcity & only Oil Palm surviving CPO will sure bound to rise in prices. And good for all Oil Palm Plantation stocks.

2016-12-05 12:12

greatinvestor

b***shit

2016-12-05 12:19

bonescythe

Buy gunung also. hydro electric PPA is almost guaranteed revenue and profits

2016-12-05 12:31

Ahbeng Beng

Trump was advocating on infrastructure building, go buy iron ore mining company shares as iron ore price will rise....but there isnt any in malaysia. Also a lot of US companies high valuation is dangerous. Make america great mean they will squeeze corporation profit margin to redistribute the wealth to americans.

2016-12-05 12:36

stockraider

raider think ICON view is more likely scenario compare to calvin views loh....!!

Yes...export sector is always the 1st line of defense, furthermore most of the export counter have strong balance sheet.
Also weak Rm means more competitive business loh...!!

As regards to calvin domestic focus....raider says it is flaw mah!;

1. The GLC are have high gearing, domestic focus and depend on govt support.
2. The dpmestic consumers have very poor purchasing power especially for cars & properties....thus unable to lend further support
3. Msia govt will face very soft revenue collection as a result of poor economy....furthermore they need to support low income malays thru brim payment etc....not much support can flow to GLC and cronies mah....!!

Therefore alot of these type of companies will face cashflow problem & debt servicing issue loh...!!

WE ARE ACTUALLY IN RECESSION ALREADY LOH....!!

THE SOLACE...RAIDER CAN SEE IN CALVIN STOCK PICKS....IS WITH DEEP DISCOUNT.....THUS HAS GOOD MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
THIS TYPE OF INVESTMENT WOULD NOT LOSE TOO MUCH....BUT WILL BE STUCKED FOR SOMETIME LOH.....!!

YES STILL EXPORT SECTOR IS THE 1ST CHOICE...ONCE MKT DIGESTED THE FREE FALL....THE EXPORT COUNTERS IS DUE TO A RERATING LOH...!!

2016-12-05 12:36

calvintaneng

Welcome Sifu Bonescythe and Great Raider,

Yes, Calvin suggest all invest in what you know best!

Going to Booming Iskandar now!

One more thing.

If you all can do move to Iskandar for these reasons:

1. Ringgit now cheap many tourists are flocking to Iskandar Theme Parks.
2. Singapore dollar very strong. So Johoreans who commute there for work are getting a bonus in exchange rate.
3. More Singaporeans are coming to Johor to stretch their dollar.

4. Iskandar got recession proof Educity, Medical Hub and RAPID in Pengerang. Oil and coal survived the Great Depression.

See all then.

Bye for now

2016-12-05 12:45

thevoice

Please respect people's opinion. You may decide on their views and contribution.

2016-12-05 12:52

aunloke

Everyone knows that the storm will come and you keep telling that the storm is coming but you avoid saying when, so if the storm comes 1 year later you will say I told you so. What a joke.

2016-12-05 12:59

ccllim78

If everyone expect it come, most likely it will not come. If not it will not called tsunami.

2016-12-05 13:02

VenFx

Bad karma will be looking for Calvin.

2016-12-05 13:03

VenFx

Calvin shud hide in his Chicken shelter forever.

2016-12-05 13:04

stockraider

Storm will come when Ringgit kena attack....and it crash from Rm 4.50..5.00....6.00..7.00....8.00 agst the USD.

Then the domestic banking will have tight liquidity....interest rate move up from 4%....6 %.....8%....10% and then sky high to 16% to 20% pa

KLCI index will crash all the waydown to 600 points and then 400 points loh....!!

Bankruptcy of companies and retrenchment of workers....!!

Unemployment rate as high as 20% pa.

Inflation rate close to 15% pa....alot of shortages of essential items like rice....oil....flour etc.

The people will run riots alot of street protest.....!!

Everyday...u see the newspaper...alot is homeless & some even commot suicide loh....!!

RAIDER SEE THIS IS A GREAT TSUNAMI LOH....!!
IT MAY NOT HAPPEN....BETTER TO MENTALLY PREPARE FOR IT LOH...!!

2016-12-05 13:09

stockraider

U can see the Tsunami come from 2 effects;

1. Weak ringgit upto Rm 8.00 to USD

2. High interest rate upto 20% pa.


Thats why raider always advocate export counters and strong balance sheet, cash rich counters for shelter loh...!!

2016-12-05 13:13

10bagger10

Stockraider sifu,
can help me assess stock portfolio? as follows:-

affin
bjcorp
complet
cscsteel
fpi
freight
hevea
hexza
jcbnext
johotin
mfcb
sop
tunepro
Ta ann
Jtiasa
mbsb
waseong

2016-12-05 13:25

John Lu

Buy bjcorp, mulpha, mui, zelan, mui ind, perisai, alam, kbunai...all 52 weeks low now

2016-12-05 14:11

calvintaneng

Ευχαριστώ θεέ μου

2016-12-05 19:46

enning22

first he ,calvin cries "wolf!", second time he again cries "wolf", the third time he cries again,
omg ,ths time he is eaten by wolf.

2016-12-05 20:45

calvintaneng

Posted by enning22 > Dec 5, 2016 08:45 PM | Report Abuse

first he ,calvin cries "wolf!", second time he again cries "wolf", the third time he cries again,
omg ,ths time he is eaten by wolf.

HAHAHA!

LOL!

LOL!!

LOL!!!

That's a good joke on Calvin!

2016-12-05 20:48

paperplane2016

What export stocks then? Avoid high gearing stocks!

2016-12-05 22:04

yapyk

Let's be honest......financial tsunami happens once 50-80 years. In between, you get 30-50% market crash. No shares being spare in market tsunami....Refer Asian crisis in 1997....all come down like crazy.

2016-12-05 22:36

VenFx

All I do know is avoid Glc counters at all means, before election coming.
U juz check on Sarawak counters few months back before the state election.

2016-12-06 07:44

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