THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Calvin's Warning on over speculated (unproven) Hibiscus!
calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 12 Jan 2017, 01:17 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Fellow Investors of i3 Forum (Calvin is speaking to True Investors only). If you are a gambler then better please don't bother.
Hibiscis is yet to prove its profitable turn around business. Last quarter result is not the norm. It is only a one off due to accounting tricks. Next quarter result will show a drop in profit. By then prices will retrace. Those who recklessly chasing & punting hibiscus will be left holding a lemon.
See
Let's take a look at Hibiscus latest Quarterly Result:
Ha! It shows a 5.91 cents earning this quarter.
True or not?
Let's dig further.
It showed a Rm54.7 million in revenue.
But a profit of Rm80.2 million?
How come?
Revenue is only Rm54.7 million & can get a profit of Rm80.2 million? Looks fishy indeed!
Rm72.8 million is under "Taxation" refund or rebate or what? This is not from operating profit but accounting trick. A real con job stating this as "profit".
So Rm80.2 million - Rm72.8 million = Rm 7.4 million "profit"
Look again!
Ha! there is another Rm17.5 million from foreign currency gain!
So Rm7.4 million - Rm17.5 million = - Rm10.1 million loss this quarter from actual company operation!!
OH BOY! ANOTHER BIG CON JOB HERE!!
So stripping off "illusory taxation gain" & foreign exchange gain which are one off the actual loss this quarter is Rm10.1 Million!
SURPRISE! THERE IS AN OPERATING LOSS OF 0.74 CENT THIS QUARTER FOR CONMAN HIBISCUS!!
Don't believe? Still not convinced?
Let us investigate further then
Now let's scroll down to CASH FLOW ACCOUNTS
Net cash generated from financing activities.............................................................................Rm16.420,000
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents..................................................................................(12,303,000)
Effects of foreign exchange rate changes........................................................................................... 671,000
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the financial quarter ...................................................28,746 ,000
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the financial quarter............................................................. 17,114,000
Can you SEE that there IS AN ACTUAL DECREASE IN CASH OF (12,303,000) + gain from foreign exchange of Rm671K
So the NET LOSS OF CASH IS RM11,632,000?
RM11.6 MILLION CASH WIPED OFF THIS QUARTER!
And where did extra monies come from. From endless private placements that kept diluting value like another conman KNM?
Hibiscus is a clear case of fools selling to greater fools; and greater fools will finally sell to the Greatest Fools!
THE GREATER FOOL THEORY (Page 67 Last paragraph) By Great Champion Sifu Dr Neoh Soon Kean (Exerpt from his book called STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT
This is a theory that is usually very popular during the immature phase of a stock market's development. More of the followers of this theory are not aware that the trading system which they believe in goes by this peculiar name. From the stock market's behaviour during the past three booms, we can say that many Malaysians/Singaporeans appear to be strong supporters of this theory. This theory was very popular in the US during the 1920s but since then, it has fallen out of favour even though pockets of true believers still appear from time to time.
In essence, believers of this theory hold that stock prices are not dependent on anything tangible but rather dependent on the continual appearance of more people who are willing to purchase the stocks at an even higher price {these people are the so-called 'greater fools'). Thus, it neither matters what price one buys a stock nor that the stock's price is ridiculously high by any normal standard of measurement. Thus the believers of this school of thought hold the view that whatever stock one buys can always be sold at a higher price because there will always be greater fools than themselves. Thus, it is fine to buy MUIB at $24.00 because there will be another person foolish (or brave) enough to pay $26.00 for it. Believers of the greater fool theory never for a minute think that the supply of fools will be exhausted and that they may be the final purchaser before the crash.
During every stock market boom, there are usually a large number of believers of the greater fool theory and some of them actually make a lot of money on the way up. Some of them get out in time by finding some greater fools to take over their hot potatoes in the nick of time but many find that they themselves end up as the greatest fools because there is no one else willing to bid up the price anymore. Needless to say, the Greater Fool Theory is a much discredited one among academics and most professionals. But it still finds many adherents. Why is this so? Everyone is having too much fun, (that is, making so much money) on the way up that they do not want to leave the market. George Goodman, writing under the pen name of 'Adam Smith' has this wonderful parable to explain how people are caught up in the web of the Greater Fool Theory and do not know when to get out.
We are all at a wonderful ball where champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, terrorists will burst in through the terrace doors, killing many and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early will be saved, but the ball is so splendid that no one wants to leave while there is still time. Everyone wants to enjoy one more dance and sip one more glass of champagne. So everyone kept asking: "What time is it? What time is it?" We look around and find that all the clocks have no hands.
CALVIN WARNS: IF SYNDICATES SUDDENLY THROW DOW LIKE (TRIPLE LIMIT DOWN IN IFCA) or LIMIT DOWN AS IN COMCORP THEN THOSE CAUGHT HOLDING HIGHER PRICES WILL SUFFER SUDDEN SHATTERING LOSSES!! This is what Dr. Neoh meant by terrorists burst through the terrace and klling many!!
This may be a surrealist's way of describing the stock market but Goodman's parable has a great deal of truth in it. Of course, we know that in every speculative boom of the past, the 'terrorists' did come when most of the guests were still enjoying themselves at the ball. As 'Adam Smith' implies, nobody knows when a speculative boom will end but end it must for that is the rule. At every speculative boom, not many of the small speculators escaped with their gains made on the way up. Most of the smaller speculators known to me eventually lost all their gains and much more than what has been gained.
Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality. Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life.
In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch, generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is related. He was once asked how it was that he remained so rich while many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid answer: 'I always sold too early.'
Calvin comments:
These are the factors you MUST KNOW About Hibiscus
1) Last Quarter Result - stripping one off tax rebate & forex gain there is actually no profit at all for hibiscus
2) Its Cash position has also DEPLETED FURTHER.
3) The actual intrincsic value of hibiscus is now suspect as there is amplified dilution by endless private placements!
4) Without these accounting tricks the next Quarterly Report of hibiscus will drop drastically -leading to sudden shocking sell down. Those in Hovid got a shock when license revoked! So those chasing hibiscus will also get a shock if hibiscus price drops drastically.
More external factors
5) Opec & Non Opec supporting crude oil prices have yet to be confirmed. Will Iran keep pumping & is there cheating among them.
6) Will the world's crude oil demand continues to drop as recession bites further due to protectionism. In 1937 when USA raised trade tariff US Dow swooned. Will Trump's Rally suddenly go into reversal?
7) With the Price of Crude now above US$50.00 the Shale Oil Rigs are now being revived one by one. Will this be the undoing of Crude OIl Price Rise? Shale Oil caused the Collapse of Crude Oil. It can happen again.
See http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Climbs-To-A-10-Month-High.html
8) One more potential danger is from Donald Trump himself. Since Trump practices protectionism US restrictive law for Oil exploration might be done away. And if Trump unleash the largest stock of reseve Oil in the world which is AMERICA. The World Oil Market Will Collapse again!
Oil Reserves by Country
Most likely estimate for existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered fields
United States
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Brazil
Iraq
Venezula
Mexico
China
billions of barrels of oil
So please invest safely.
Buy and sell according to your own discretion
Regards,
Calvin Tan
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 57 comments
On the tax issue, a bit complicated to explain but it is just some accounting stuffs about reversals of deferred tax.....
There is still another $ 500 million of such useless stuffs to reverse if the auditors approve.......
They can continue to con you a long long time if you allow your self to be conned.
Indeed , it is greater fool theory.
2017-01-12 02:18
actually it is not a good business model for SPECS to go and collect stuffs from oil giants ...what oil giants treat as rubbish/ liabilities, Hibiscus go and treat as gold is never a good business model.
The costs will kill the Hibiscus and Specs already.
Having said that.....I still have Hibiscus which I intend to sell at a higher price.
Oil giants have economy of scale, do a lot of engineering works themselves, good systems.
Hibiscus depends on contractors for every thing. There is no way in the world such business models make sense.
People gets killed by stockmarket because people are naive, not because stock market is evil.
remember that.
I have never been killed by businesses that makes no sense to me.
There are enough businesses with business sense out there. to choose from.
Of course you can trade and contra even conman stocks....I do that all the time, just be aware what you are doing.....but Calvin got a good point about dances and missing such dances.
Addicted to such dances never leads to good endings.
2017-01-12 02:26
Problem with trading profits and contra profits is it can be addicted , addictive.
Once addicted, eventually lose back every thing and more.
2017-01-12 02:38
Eventually only way to keep the profits is to copy KYY style.
Only buys shares that makes business sense and market leaders , let profits run.
It's business sense not speculation then.
2017-01-12 02:43
Good morning,
Everyone thinks that he is too smart to get caught and will be able to making a killing without getting killed himself. Such was the thinking of Mr Neoh of Batu Pahat who lost Rm5 millions. And the smart Ho who lost Rm3 millions.
They were caught in the web of greed. Once addicted to greed of gambling they were locked inside! So the success of gambling in initial stages eventually cause their undoing.
90% of the people who gamble in greater fool stocks will end up losers.
So better don't go in that direction and live safely.
A rich man once employed driver for his family living on the mountain. 3 drivers were called for interview.
1. The first was told how near the cliff he could drive the car safely. He said within 10 feet of the precipice.
2. The second driver boasted that he could drive the car as near as one foot from the cliff.
3. The 3rd one said he will keep his car as far as away from the dangerous cliff as possible.
Ha! In the end the no.3 interviewer was chosen!
The master wants the driver to stay as far away possible for the safety of his family.
So please be warned. If you lose your life savings by gambling your loved ones will suffer later.
So avoid gambling and learn to invest carefully.
2017-01-12 07:40
Talk so much no use lah. In stock market whoever makes money is king
John Lu is now sitting on tidy profit for Hisbiscus
For me, John Lu is king
The others all bull shxt lah
2017-01-12 08:38
John Lu is King now, but still Hibiscus is a con stock.
Sometimes can make more from con stock than bluechips. But dont fall in love...
2017-01-12 08:47
Haha...icon8888 sifu and CharlesT aka murali master are right!! Thanks for the support
2017-01-12 08:50
Posted by CharlesT > Jan 12, 2017 08:47 AM | Report Abuse
John Lu is King now, but still Hibiscus is a con stock.
Sometimes can make more from con stock than bluechips. But dont fall in love...
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 12, 2017 08:38 AM | Report Abuse
Talk so much no use lah. In stock market whoever makes money is king
John Lu is now sitting on tidy profit for Hisbiscus
For me, John Lu is king
The others all bull shxt lah
WAH!
CON MAN HAS NOW ADMITTED AND SHOWED HIS TRUE COLOR!!
OH HO HO!!
2017-01-12 08:51
John Lu makes money from Hisbiscus doesn't mean John Lu is a gambler
It is more likely due to John Lu got excellent market intelligence
John Lu has demonstrated many times that he has insights into certain things
I don't encourage people to punt Hisbiscus. But for John Lu, I think he knows what he is doing. 他做事， 我放心.
Understand boh , Calvin tan ?
2017-01-12 09:02
AyamTua dont forget ....
The Kings of Kings...
the most handsome and most electrifying ayam of all time
self proclaim Master of the Cracked Universe ....
im humble i dont want to trumpet myself
gih gih gih
12/01/2017 08:59
WELCOME AYAMTUA - THE CAPTAIN OF FORMER TUDOR GOLD CHOCOLATE SHIP!!
2017-01-12 09:03
AyamTua ha ha ha at least calvin tan mention name!!!
now i am famous ....
calvin tan tweets can send stocks up and down
like Donald Trump!
12/01/2017 09:05
HAHAHA! CALVIN REMEMBERS AYAMTUA DEFENDING FOR PM CORP AGAINST NAYSAYERS & CONMAN MIKEKONG55 LAST TIME. MIKEKONG55 LED SO MANY ASTRAY IN REGAIN CAPITAL CHOCO PASSENGER SHIP!
90% OF GAMBLERS FINALLY LOST ALL THEIR MONIES AND LEFT i3 FORUM!
GOOD THAT AYAMTUA SURVIVED!!
LONG LIVE AYAMTUA!!!
See
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900608510.jsp?ftp=1
2017-01-12 09:12
icon
only people like KYY and his style can make money from stock market and keep it.
that means buy stuffs that can be understood, makes business sense
Hibiscus business model makes no sense
I got a small amount of Hibiscus at 30 sen which I intend to sell around now. Calvin story about dancing and dances and addictions is very relevant.
2017-01-12 09:52
look his bpuri, from 40 cent go to 50 cent due to budget then back to 40 cent again ... he is going mad
2017-01-12 09:55
The facts is there, just some souls doesn't want to acknowledge it and keep chasing like nobody niz.
They soon realise when the whole price coming down like dominoes.
2017-01-12 10:12
Calvin.. The Oil E&P Company using different model of financial reporting system, Same goes to Exxon, Shell and etc. Nothing uncommon in Hibiscus report, just because of your Report, it has helped to reduce traders from participating in this rally. Many people has cut profit position much more earlier and it is not making sense for them to go in now.
2017-01-12 17:44
Calvin.. The Oil E&P Company using different model of financial reporting system, Same goes to Exxon, Shell and etc. Nothing uncommon in Hibiscus report, just because of your Report, it has helped to reduce traders from participating in this rally. Many people has cut profit position much more earlier and it is not making sense for them to go in now.
12/01/2017 17:44
Calvin welcomes your input. This should be the correct way to converse and share ideas.
I hope all will make money and avoid losses in these trying times which are now ahead of us in this year of Protectionism & Deglobalisation by President Trump.
Until hibiscus has shown concrete profits I think price has already run up beyond its fundamental.
This is my concern from past observation
During Regain Choco Passenger frenzy many have dabbled with highly unproven speculative stocks.
While it lasted there were euphoria, frenzied trading & fun time.
But alas! It all ended in tears, losses & disappointment later.
And 90% of i3 forumers had left us and ceased from posting since then.
All these naive newbies have finally lost their monies!
See 33 people clicked "likes" for this pirated con man ship!
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900608510.jsp
Again during the mad euphoria of IFCA many threw caution to the wind and chased it from 7 sen to Rm1.87
In the aftermath of the collapse again 90% of newbies in i3 forum were wiped out!
And 56 people clicked "likes" for Ifca.
For many (90%) it too ended in tears & are no longer with us.
See http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/0023.jsp
And so con man & syndicates will continue to trap unsuspecting newbies & sorchai.
Slaughtering batches after batches of naive innocent lambs for this taking.
I hope I have helped some.
2017-01-12 21:24
Posted by RojakInvestor > Jan 12, 2017 09:29 PM | Report Abuse
u also one of the conman mah...dun act so high n mighty lo..
It's ok what you think positive or negative.
Only time will tell.
2017-01-12 21:45
Don't play God , Calvin . Bursa is a liberal market and Malaysia is a democratic country , each individual investor have their own investment decision and the monies are theirs NOT yours . When they made profit , they are NOT going to give you a single cent and when they lost pants in their investment, you are NOT going to give your pant to them , so what is your problem ??? Give a good reason on why everyone must listen to your "guidance" and follow your instructions ??? Look back to ALL your recommended stocks , how many of them performed ??? Obviously, you are suffering from inferior complexity. You made lots of enemy in i3 forum ,day in day out lots peoples are cursing and hurling at you , I sympathize with you. Calvin, you DO carry a point of advice , that is NOT to chase a particular stock when the price rocketed but "You deemed" your decision must be upheld by all ! This will never happen Calvin ! As the saying goes " one man's meat is another man poison " I wish you good health and have a fruitful investment , the same goes to all investors . Have a meaningful weekend and be cautious of your investment and hard earned money .
2017-01-13 08:36
tianjin Don't play God , Calvin . Bursa is a liberal market and Malaysia is a democratic country , each individual investor have their own investment decision and the monies are theirs NOT yours . When they made profit , they are NOT going to give you a single cent and when they lost pants in their investment, you are NOT going to give your pant to them , so what is your problem ??? Give a good reason on why everyone must listen to your "guidance" and follow your instructions ??? Look back to ALL your recommended stocks , how many of them performed ??? Obviously, you are suffering from inferior complexity. You made lots of enemy in i3 forum ,day in day out lots peoples are cursing and hurling at you , I sympathize with you. Calvin, you DO carry a point of advice , that is NOT to chase a particular stock when the price rocketed but "You deemed" your decision must be upheld by all ! This will never happen Calvin ! As the saying goes " one man's meat is another man poison " I wish you good health and have a fruitful investment , the same goes to all investors . Have a meaningful weekend and be cautious of your investment and hard earned money .
13/01/2017 08:36
It's like this:
If I SEE a big pot hole in the highway & then I also SEE reckless drivers speeding at 200 km per hour unknowingly. Don't you think I should do my part to give some warning.
Last time in Regain Capital Choco Passenger Ship
Many chased con man stocks by the very popular Mikekong55 @ newman day in day out.
In the end all were drowned in total losses.
90% of those who got conned stopped posting. Only 10% survived.
SEE http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900608510.jsp
Same for those who followed nancytang & chrischan who chased IFCA near Rm1.87
Again 90& of those i3 forumers are gone for good after losing their shirts & pants
Only 10% survived.
2017-01-13 09:16
Those who jump into the last wagon will be the losers...... just like pyramid scheme.
2017-01-13 10:24
I notice there's no single mention on Anasuria or North Sabah in this article. It's like saying Apple is a bad stock without talking anything about iPhone and Macbook.
2017-01-13 14:01
anasuria's miniscule profit cannot cover expenses as yet and borneo oil is still uncertain but price has run ahead of fundamental.
The risk and reward is now totally out of sync with reality. All will just disappear in a puff of smoke when next few qtr result prove otherwise
2017-01-13 14:07
Calvin so confused
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 13, 2017 03:42 AM | Report Abuse
This Calvin lied until he himself confused
Calvin said he only invested 3% of his money
If that is the case, how much can he make from prestar, etc ?
Prestar or pornstar ?
2017-01-13 14:11
Ya ya ya Calvin...mpland is the purest non con stock...but it is sampah !! wakakaka.
2017-01-13 17:34
nevertheless, over a long enough time period, what the broken clock says about dances and dancing is very relevant, very true.
2017-01-13 17:44
well at least in the future...this calvin the car saleman clown will also disappear too. no need to worry whether he means well or not.
liars does not meant well. it is just a coverup to hide their problems. and this fella is a great liar. most of all ppl in here know that already. its very obvious
plus how many times can u average down? keep for 10 years? 10years many ppl die dy la....what utter nonsense.
if u can say its for the risk adverse...then its true la...instead his investing advice are formed from lego blocks sini ambik there campur...aiyo until like mixed crap...
enuf said. god bless all
2017-01-13 20:06
RojakInvestor well at least in the future...this calvin the car saleman clown will also disappear too. no need to worry whether he means well or not.
liars does not meant well. it is just a coverup to hide their problems. and this fella is a great liar. most of all ppl in here know that already. its very obvious
plus how many times can u average down? keep for 10 years? 10years many ppl die dy la....what utter nonsense.
if u can say its for the risk adverse...then its true la...instead his investing advice are formed from lego blocks sini ambik there campur...aiyo until like mixed crap...
enuf said. god bless all
13/01/2017 20:06
Calvin replies:
True to your ID - Rojakinvestor & also rojak posting with nonsense!
I like to eat rojak. But your rojak posting is another matter altogether!
2017-01-13 22:46
Edwardong53
Those who jump into the last wagon will be the losers...... just like pyramid scheme.
13/01/2017 10:24
You are correct! Right on target & chun chun!
Those sorchai who played contra by chasing hibiscus today at 55 cts & cut loss at 49 cts on closing have lost 10% today!!
2017-01-13 22:49
Karenng Thanks Calvin for sharing your valuable advice.
13/01/2017 13:15
You are welcome Karen
If you want to learn serious investment.
You must read THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR By Benjamin Graham
2017-01-13 22:50
nekosan 1 word to calvin - JEALOUS
his stock all stuck like mad
12/01/2017 09:53
Calvin thinks you are totally misled!
2017-01-13 22:51
Posted by John Lu > Jan 13, 2017 10:54 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin ask ppl buy bjcorp 50c 3 years ago and now at 37c...how?
Calvin says why your eyes got something one lah?
Didn't you also SEE Calvin ask ppl to buy Jaks at 40 cts
SEE
calvintaneng Whoa!
Top boss bought at 44 cents and above, millions of them. Anything below 40 cents is a bargain!
So don't wait or else Jaks jump Jump JUMP Up And Away!
16/12/2014 15:00
Ameera Agreed.... Below 0.40 is a good buy, hope not to get better price at 0.35... :(:(
16/12/2014 21:06
Jaks jumped to Rm1.20 for a 200% GAIN!!
And also Super Enterprize, Silk & Pohuat
All 3 also up 200% EACH!!
Should change name from John Lu to Johnny the Loser?
2017-01-13 23:04
Calvintaneng, good effort in warning genuine investors. Always enjoy reading your write up based on facts and analysis.
Keep it up bro.
2017-01-14 15:12
Calvin,
I like your advice on Hibiscus. Look like this counter already switching gear and it will let most of us think that the price will go up further but in fact waiting catch us....
2017-01-14 15:46
calvin holland call after 3 years!
Posted by anbz2 at Jan 18, 2017 11:26 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 21, 2013 05:50 PM | Report Abuse
Never mind anbz - PM Corp will move up all the WAY!
First Target to cross 30 cents, next target 50 cents, next 80 cents, after that RM1.00.
And then RM1.50 Is The Target Price!
Over A Long Term - The Target Price will be RM10.00
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 21, 2013 07:24 PM | Report Abuse
anbz that RM10.00 will be yet future. Set your sight on these possible targets first:
30 cents (anytime now)
next 50 cents
then 80 cents
after that RM1.00
And the Summit of Expectation is RM1.50 For PM Corp which is Very Possible.
2017-01-18 23:43
Posted by kakashi > Jan 19, 2017 08:48 PM | Report Abuse
sure game over
Looks like it. Last 5 candle sticks showed 3 major red & 2 minor green
SYNDICATES HAVE WASHED OUT & DUMPED TO SORCHAI!
Maybe John Lu @ Koonbee (con bilis) dumped all? Where he disappeared?
Better go squeeze her neck?
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/chart/5199.jsp
2017-01-19 21:07
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None of the specs make business sense because when the big oil giants treats as rubbish and liabilities, hibiscus treats as gold just do not make business sense.
Oil giants have knowledge, skills, economy of scale, do a lot of engineering works themselves, have good systems.
What does Hibiscus have?
2017-01-12 02:14