I have refrained from posting on Hengyuan until I saw so many losses after losses by poor naive followers.
Last time Calvin wrote and warned about Parkson being a Sunset Industry due to the Rise of ECommerce. Calvin's solution for Parkson then was to close shop. Sell away all Assets & distribute cash to shareholders. Alas! too late for Parkson now as it is facing a Sunset Industry
Why Sunset?
Let Calvin illustrates
At the turn of the last 19th Century to the 20th Century people were still using horses & horse drawn carriages.
Until the first motor car appeared. And also the motor bike appeared.
Both horses and horse-drawn carriages were becoming obsolete.
Now those foolish and fool hardy ones who overstayed & expanded foolishly were totally wiped off!
Try new designer carriages. Invent a better horse whip? Get better breed of horses? All no use in the face of sweeping changes.
It is change or die!
To those who sold out & convert to selling Ford Motor T survived & prospered. Those who were slow to change suffered the losses
The Ford Model T is an automobile produced by Ford Motor Company from October 1, 1908, to May 26, 1927. It is generally regarded as the first affordable automobile, the car that opened travel to the common middle-class American; some of this was because of Ford's efficient fabrication, including assembly line production ...
AND NOW AS WE MOVE FROM THE 20TH CENTURY TO THE 21ST CENTURY ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IS COMING!!
In the Future the Use of Gasoline Powered Cars will be phased out. The World will move to Electric Vehicle or Solar Power.
So that is the reason why Royal Dutch is disposing small Shell Refineries worldwide. Only those larger ones without land constrain will go downsteam into Chemicals productions.
Now these are Top Reasons Why Hengyuan is facing Sunset like Parkson
1) Shell PD face geographical constrain.
In PD TSR Cap is building a Marina. And Malaysia Vision Valley is expanding from Seremban to Bandar Sri Sendayan & PD. So there is no space for Dow Stream Chemical expansion
2) With GEELY Joining Proton there will be a Change to EV (Electric Vehicle). So in future more and more cars will switch from gasoline to Electric. Warren Buffet SEE this ahead of time and bought BDY shares from Value Partners. And Warren Buffet was Chun Chun
See
This Buffett-backed Chinese
stock is up 55% in a month
Investors are hot for China's answer to Tesla.
Shares of BYD(BYDDF), a Chinese battery and electric car maker in which Warren Buffett is a major investor, have risen 55% over the past month.
WHY UP SO MUCH?
ANSWER:
The steep climb started in early September, when China announced plans to eventually ban the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels.
The announcement also boosted shares in China's other leading electric car maker, Geely(GELYF), which is up about 40% over the same period.
China is pushing to replace the gas guzzling cars on its streets, and Beijing wants homegrown companies to benefit from the windfall in sales of alternative vehicles.
SINGAPORE HAS JUST ANNOUNCED RM10,000 COMPENSATION FOR ALL WHO WILL GIVE UP THEIR AIR POLLUTING MOTOR BIKES
3) SO IF NO FUTURE DEMAND FOR CARS THEN SELL FOSSIL OIL TO TENAGA NATIONAL? NO. YOU BETTER DON'T BANK ON IT!
TNB IS BUYING ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR POWER PRODUCER
TNB inks 6 RE PPAs for 180MWac
By TMR / Pic By MUHD AMIN NAHARUL
Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) has signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with six special-purpose companies as part of the Energy Commission’s (EC) transmission-connected large-scale solar (LSS) projects in Peninsular Malaysia.
The companies are Kenyir Gunkul Solar Sdn Bhd, Idiwan Solar Sdn Bhd, BGMC BRAS Power Sdn Bhd, Viva Solar Sdn Bhd, Cypark Estuary Solar Sdn Bhd and Cove Suria Sdn Bhd.
In an exchange filing yesterday, the power utility firm noted that the companies have agreed to design, construct, own, operate and maintain solar photovoltaic energy-generating facilities, with a total approved capacity of 179.99MWac.
The six companies will sell the renewable energy (RE) generated for a period of 21 years from the start of commercial operations.
The earliest date of operations is Dec 31 next year and the latest is on Dec 31, 2020.
As a whole, the LSS programme undertaken by the EC aims at producing 1,000MWac in yearly capacity by 2020 for both the peninsula and East Malaysia.
4) EVEN SAUDI ARAMCO FORESEES THE DOWN TURN OF FOSSIL FUEL FOR CARS.
SO SAUDI IS INVESTING RM28 MILLIONS INTO RAPID OF PENGERANG.
FOR WHAT?
SEE
$28 billion boost for Saudi Arabia’s downstream petrochem industry
The Sadara project, which will produce 3 million tonnes of petrochemicals a year, is the world’s largest petrochemicals facility to be built in a single phase.
4) THE RISE OF RAPID WITH 300,000 BARRELS A DAY WILL FLOOD MALAYSIA TO OVER CAPACITY. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO HENGYUAN's 45,000 to 150,000 BARRELS A DAY.
WHILE DIALOGE HAS RECEIVED ANOTHER RM2.5 BILLIONS TO EXPAND TANK FARM HENGYUAN FACE REAL SERIOUS GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTRAIN
5) AND OTHER PROBLEMS APART FROM ITS GEOGRAPHICAL DISADVANTAGE ARE THE OLD FACTORY THAT NEEDS COSTLY REFURBISHING PLUS THE UPGRADE TO EURO 4 & EURO 5 ENGINES
6) SO TO SUM UP:
ROYAL DUTCH FORESAW THE BLEAK SUNSET FUTURE OF FOSSIL OIL FOR CARS AS DEMAND WILL SHIFT UP TO EURO 4 & EURO 5 & THEN TO EV.
SO THE NEED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM TO PETROLCHEMICAL WHICH HENGYUAN PD REFINERY FACE LAND CONSTRAIN. ALSO THE COSTLY REFURBISHMENT AND UPGRADE TO EURO 4 & EURO 5 WHICH ARE ALSO TEMPORARY BEFORE ALL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO EV OR SOLAR.
7) WITH UPCOMING RAPID OF PENGERANG THE DEATH FINAL DEATH KNELL FOR HENGYUAN WILL ARRIVE IN NO TIME
SO ROYAL DUTCH DECIDED TO SELL AS FAST AS IT CAN TO HENGYUAN EVEN BELOW MARKET PRICE!!
WHY OH WHY?
THE ANSWER IS OBVIOUS!!
HENGYUAN IS FACING A SUNSET INDUSTRY JUST LIKE HORSE DRAWN CARRIAGES CHANGING INTO MOTOR CAR AND ECOMMERCE SPELLS THE DOOM FOR CONVENTIONAL TYPE OF BUSINESS LIKE PARKSON
WARM REGARDS
Calvin Tan, Singapore
CONCLUSION:
ANY ONE WHO BUY INTO HENGYUAN IS NOT INVESTING LONG TERM. LONGER TERM IT MIGHT JUST CLOSE SHOP!!!
SO ALL WHO BUY AND SELL ARE PLAYING WITH FIRE!!
BETTER STAY OUT!!! AND DON'T BE ANOTHER TOO CLEVER SUCKER WHO GET CAUGHT!!!
Dato Calvin,EV effect only will only come another 10 + years. U miss 2 golden chances to grand huge profit in HY.One is September last year. Another one is last week. Pls dun be sour grape here.
Remember 2016 oil price was 29 when the shell started the divestment programme to pay off the debt after buying BG GAS. Did they made a mistake? Oil price has recovered more than double since.
"Shell is aiming to sell $30bn of assets by 2018 as it seeks to pay off debt following its takeover of BG Group. "
Will you buy an EV today? How many cars vs electric charging station in Malaysia :-)
What happen if technology advance to a point where fuel refinery can produce a better eco friendly fuel or car can be improved to reduce emission to a level that is negligible?
Dear Calvintaneng, I know that you have personal grudge to settle with Mr. Koon Yew Yin. Your analysis is no more base on facts and figures or fair and objective assessment but full of biased one sided opinion just to satisfy your ego and hitting back at Mr. Koon Yew Yin. Please empathy and sympathy with those still trapped at the high price. Let them push up the price so that who want to sell can sell at the higher price.
Dear Hengyuan shareholders, If you want to sell now, you are free to do so but please just keep one lot to support our initiative to be the first group of minority shareholders able to make requisition and vote on our resolutions. I will be there at the AGM with my pre-send prepared questions for BOD to present to us their answers. Two of the questions are since they have a 10 years selling contract (4 million ton/year) with shell base on per agreed formula for pricing. Pease show us March 08 invoice with the calculation formula and the variable data is base on and obtain from where? Since they have trading office in KL to secure crude oil 160,000 bpd (Malaysia and China) what is the frequency of trade, lot size, how many months forward, with which suppliers, any set limit, how do they do price transfer for Malaysia and china, do they do crude trading activities and who oversee and manage the corporate governance of trading division. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/127720.jsp
Dear Calvintaneng, You have recommended many shares in this i3 forum too, some are performing exceptional well but some are still not yet performing will you please attend AGM too and do your part in questioning the BOD for the reasons why they are not performing. I thank you
EV still got a long way to go. Unless your battery can charge in less than 5 minutes and runs more than 100km. Its future is uncertain.
Refined oil is for global demand. Pengerang is there to fill up the global needs. If refined oil is a sunset tech, why u think dialog and aramco invest into it?
TERIMA KASIH penulisan calvin. Sekarang akan tambah BELI hengyuan tentu untung sebab semua stok yang awak rekomen beli akan rugi dan yang rekomen jual akan naik!
Calvin... no bias but seriously EV is not there yet till 2040 only it is projected to eat into 1/3 of the world TIV.
TNB usage of renewable energy has no effect on refined gasoline. Refined oil is a global business. Global market demand is still very high. The logistic fee for gasoline transfer is seriously low thus making it not a local or regional factor but a worldwide demand.
As HY rises, calvin seem to be more and more agigated and restless. Why? Your hatred for KYY is so obvious and I don't know why you are so obsessed in running him down. Keep a level head. If you want to help investors, help push up your stock or keep your mouth shut.
Calvintaneng....i don't like crooked KYY but your article already show you do not know your thing...I don't care about your personal grudge and dissatisfaction with crooked KYY because he earn more than your...more famous than you and more everything than you....your ignorance of O&G industry is as naive giving ice cream to kid....in this case..any smart or season investor will laughing behind for your stupid article which already debated more than 10 years ago...O&G is not going anywhere but consolidation is the theme to play....So please save your effort from publishing articles that will show your bird brain to the whole investing community..
it is ok....we already see his bird brain...giving one hit or two hits is only a pee brain investor will do....average he is a loser...like buffet said.....even a dog can invest...point point...maybe good ..maybe bad....show us your portfolio ...else...we know you only have grudge against crooked KYY....
This article is very interesting. I don't travel a lot but just came back for a China trip. Almost 100% of motorbikes are are electric bikes in accordance with their Go-Green policies. The bikes are charged and run from 12 hours or more. This is sufficient for them to travel to work and back. Yes, China is quite self-sufficient on its own.
i think TA has a slight edge due to its exposure to retail traders. İt has defensive TAGB which will report a good QR next month due to Little Bay sale.
HOW THE GREAT CALVIN WRONGLY INTERPRETED HENGYUAN LOH....!
THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN Author: calvintaneng | Latest post: Fri, 13 Apr 2018, 01:03 AM
Hi Guys, I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Blog Headlines (by Date) Blog Index WHY ROYAL DUTCH SOLD SHELL TO HENGYUAN? WILL HENGYUAN FOLLOW PARKSON A SUNSET INDUSTRY, Calvin Tan Author: calvintaneng | Publish date: Mon, 9 Apr 2018, 12:03 AM Dear Friends of i3 Forum
I have refrained from posting on Hengyuan until I saw so many losses after losses by poor naive followers.
Last time Calvin wrote and warned about Parkson being a Sunset Industry due to the Rise of ECommerce. Calvin's solution for Parkson then was to close shop. Sell away all Assets & distribute cash to shareholders. Alas! too late for Parkson now as it is facing a Sunset Industry.
IS HENGYUAN REALLY SUNSET OR NOT LEH ??
NOT REALLY LOH....!! THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE(EV) IS DAMN WASTE OF TIME MAH....!! 1. BATTERY HAS LOW RANGE...U ALWAYS FEAR OF RUNNING OUT OF BATTERY MAH...!! 2. THE CHANGING TIME DAMN LONG....MORE THAN 2 HOURS...U CAN DO IT WITHIN 5 MINS WITH PETROL BUT EV...U WAIT DAMN AT LEAST 2 HRS LOH...!! CAN PEOPLE AFFORD TO WAIT THAT LONG ?? 3. CHARGING STATION NOT WIDELY AVAILABLE....IF AVAILABLE IT IS FREE LOH...!! ASK YOURSELF THIS LOGIC LOH ?? ANY BUSINESSMAN WANT TO FINANCE FREE CHARGING BUSINESS ....AND DON MAKE ANY MONIES LEH ?? 4. ASK YOURSELF BASED ON SCIENCE THE EFFICIENCY OF ELECTRICITY V FUEL ?? ELECTRICITY IS GENERATED BY SUPPLYING FUEL TO POWER PLANT THAT POWER THE GRID AND THEN THE USERS CHARGE THE ELECTRICITY ON THEIR BATTERY LOH..!! THE ENERGY GENERATED FROM BATTERY TAKE A LONGER PROCESS COMPARE TO FOSSIL FUEL THATS WHY STILL NOT EFFICIENT MAH...!!
THE ABOVE PROBLEM TAKES A LONG TIME TO RESOLVE LOH...!!
RAIDER AGREE FOR THE SAKE OF THE ENVIRONMENT....BURNING FUEL WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE OFF...BUT FOR HOW LONG B4 COMPLETELY CHANGE LEH ??
AT LEAST 30 YRS LOH....!! THUS REFINERY IS HERE TO STAY AT LEAST 25 YRS LOH....!! 25 YRS IS ALOT OF TIME TO MAKE GOOD MONIES....IF U PLANT PALMOIL U ONLY HAVE ABOUT 15 YRS OF INCOME, THUS 25 YRS OF INCOME FOR REFINERY IS A VERY GOOD PREPOSITION LOH....!!
WHO KNOWS IN 25 YRS....THE REFINERY CAN BE TRANSFORMED TO SOMETHING ELSE WHICH IS VERY SYNERGISTIC WHEN TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS LOH...!!
HENGYUAN FUTURE IS GOOD LOH....!! JUST THINK OF HENGYUAN IS PLANTATION CAN U HARVEST NEXT 25 YRS LEH ?? BY TIME COME CHANGE YOUR POCKET ALREADY VERY FAT LOH....!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lanjiolang
Thanks for this wonderful article.
2018-04-09 00:50