THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
3 Charts Tell All That Johor Landed Properties are Still Undervalue & With Great Potential to Go Up, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 22 Apr 2018, 03:54 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,797
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
- CHART NO. 1 SHOWS HOUSE PRICE INDEX
The House Price Index for Johor is the lowest at 150 points while Highest is KL at over 250.
This shows that Johor Properties are selling at 40% Discount to KL
2. CHART NUMBER 2 SHOWS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS INTO JOHOR IS HIGHEST
In year 2014 FDI in Johor is Rm21.1 Billions versus KL at only a tiny weeny Rm49 Millions. Over Rm250 Billions FDI will Translate
Into Multiplied Millions of New Jobs in Iskandar. Shenzhen has only 300K population in year 1970. In 1980 when Shenzhen
opened its doors for FDI it became the World’s Factory drawing in Huge FDI which then created Jobs which in turn drew in 10
Million migrant workers from Sichuan & all over China to make Shenzhen the Top Growth Dynamic Zone. Same thing is repeated in
Booming Iskandar.
3. CHART NUMBER 3 SHOWS GDP OF VARIOUS STATES
Again Johor took the Pole Position of 5.6%. KL is not even mentioned.
THESE STATISTICS SHOW THAT OVER A LONGER TERM JOHOR BEING SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUE WITH THE
HIGHEST FDI PLUS BIGGEST GDP GROWTH WILL PERFORM THE BEST AMONG ALL IN MALAYSIA.
Note:
THE BEST BUY IN JOHOR IS SINGLE STOREY & DOUBLE STOREY LANDED HOUSES AS OPPOSED TO HIGH END HIGH
RISE CONDOS FOR THESE REASONS:
- A new single storey house selling for Rm400,000 has a build in cost of Rm250,000 after factoring in high land prices,high cost of construction material & high wages. So the profit is Rm150,000 a unit. Which is 60% (rough estimate)
2. A Condo selling for Rm400,000 has a build in cost of Rm100,000. The only land cost is at ground level. All floors upward from
level 2 to level 40 up to 50 are “free air space”. So the profit is a huge 300%
3. A landed single storey house can only be built on limited land space whereas for Condos it can build upward 20, 30, 40 or even
50 stories. So just imagine selling 50 units instead of a single unit. So for these reasons almost all Developers in year 2011, 2012,
2013 & 2014 rush to build as many High End Condos as possible to maximise profits.
4. As a result of this Highly Lopsided Frenzied Building in Iskandar there is now a Huge Glut of High End Condos in Islkandar. On
the other hand the last few 1 storey landed houses built by Keck Seng in Taman Daya & those in Taman Pelangi Indah were
snapped up! Buyers queued for days and nights before Launch Date. And within first hour of Opening Sales all were completely
sold. After that no more. You can only buy single storey houses from the secondary market as No One is building One Storey
Houses near JB City anymore.
5. So there is now a Total Mismatch of what is being built & what is the Real Actual Demand. Condos are in horrible over supply!!
While Landed One or Two Storey Houses below Rm400,000 are shockingly under supplied.
6. So expect Landed Houses between Rm250,000 to Rm400,00 to be in hot demand with prices firming up to Rm500,000 and
above to match KL & Penang prices. While Condos in Horrendous Glut over Rm1 Millions to fall by 40% to 60%.
Is it possible for a High End Condo worth Rm1 milllions to fall by 60% to Rm400,00 in Iskandar?
Yes! A Condo selling for Rm1 Millions cost only Rm250,000 to build. So even if it falls by 60% from Rm1 Millions to only
Rm400,000 the Developer still stand to gain. Not so for all who bought at Rm1 Millions and suffer Rm600,000 equity loss in the
coming down turn due to rampant glut. The only way to mop up all these Surplus Unsold, Untenanted High Rise Condos will be a
drastic change of Policy to Attract More People to Live in Booming Iskandar.
SO THE VERDICT IS THIS:
SELL THOSE HIGH END HIGHLY PRICED CONDOS AND SWITCH TO LANDED HOUSES PRICED BETWEEN RM250,000 to
RM400,000
DO IT FAST & DO IT NOW!
WARM REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Below is the Shenzhen Population Growth Chart
Shenzhen in 30 years grew from a population of 300,000 people to over 11 Million people. The fastest Growing Region in the World
due to FDI
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 21 of 21 comments
peja87
UEMS up already..thanks calvin!
22/04/2018 16:01
I wish UEMS is up. But the reality is UEMS like all other Iskandar property stocks are down in the dumps.
But over a longer term when High Speed Rail Station arrives in Gerbang Nusajaya all UEMS Lands will rise higher. So if you have Cash & Stamina just add a little on weakness.
Or else just wait.
And for now it is better to buy Landed Property than Property Stocks in Iskandar.
See these comments:
Overhang by States
Johor 17.7% (4,376)
Penang 15.8% (3,916)
Kedah 15.3% (3,783)
In Johor - majority of the overhang comprises of condos/apartments priced RM500,000 to RM1mil.
Calvin comments:
The above figures are correct!
Majority of overhang in Iskandar consists of High Rise Condos priced over Rm500,000 to Rm1 Millions in Iskandar
So Calvin tells all fellow i3 Forum members to avoid & refrain from buying Condos priced above Rm700,000 in Iskandar.
Go for Landed Houses priced below Rm500,000 which now consttitutes the best investments.
Where to look
1) Bandar Meridin East by Mah Sing still got new 2 storey houses priced around Rm410,000. Over in Ecoworld next door all 2 storey houses below Rm500K have been all sold.
2) In Taman Nusa Damai (just after Bandar Sri Alam) BPruri jv with Mp Corp have launched 2 Storey Houses 20x60 for Rm488K. This one comes with G&G with Chub House and Swimming Pool. More than 50% already sold. This project is called Puri Residences. Opposite is the APTEX Commercial Lands.
Bookings can be placed at JB Sentral, in JBCBD.
3) In Taman Mutiara Rini (Boustead) 2 storey houses priced at Rm550,000 each were all sold. This is a hot area.
4) Scientex Pulai has 18x65 2 storey houses selling very well around Rm410,000. Similar built up like those of Mah Sing in Bandar Meridin East. Scientex management is proactive in buying more lands for affordable housing in Iskandar.
Note:
I don't have shares in Boustead, Scientex or Mah Sing. I still hold shares of MP Corp which owns the 480 acre lands on Taman Nusa Damai.
BPuri Jv with MP Corp to build 300 2 storey houses in Puri Residences of which 150 units have been sold.
Management of Bina Puri dare to build & sell even before MP Corp has fully resolved its many Court cases. Calvin is watching.
2018-04-22 16:28
Thanks Calvin, u are my sifu.
Calvin, I only buy landed house. Scared to stay high up in condo.
Thanks for your sharing with us here.
2018-04-22 16:29
Thank you pussycats
Where you from?
Cheshirecat is from Bentong, Pahang.
In places like KL, Penang or Singapore due to scarcity of land it is Ok to buy Condos near MRT or where there is good access.
Also some future day when Population grow like Shenzhen Condo prices will also recover and go up in Iskandar.
2018-04-22 17:11
Calvin, nice to read your writing in i3. It is full of information.
I am from kuching, cat city. My place also has scarcity of land problem now in the city. Developers are building condo everywhere in my place.
2018-04-22 19:13
Oh cat city a nice place. I visited there more than 10 years ago. The tourist guide told us Santubong looks like a woman with child? So santubong means "son to born"?
Anyway i visited the Cat Museum in Kuching.
2018-04-22 19:28
Santubong is from Hokien word >> Suah Tu Bong (roughly means Full of Mountain Pig in this area).
2018-04-22 19:34
Legend said that Puteri Santubong resided there. You can google Puteri Santubong to read its legend story.
2018-04-22 19:39
Calvin, how (like always) you have lots of info regarding certain stock or stocks? Do u employ a group of researchers working for you?
2018-04-22 19:43
Pussycats,
Not researchers but lots of Stock Brokers and Remisiers i met from Osk, Uob Kay Hian, Inter Pacific and others. Also Bankers, Real Estate Agents, Consultants and others.
I have 2 great Sifus who talked about ideas from time to time
1. My Johor Sifu an expert in stocks.
2. Another Sifu expert in Iskandar properties.
So i learn to invest in both stocks and properties from them.
Every week i learn more and more from people i meet.
Last week i met 2 old men over 80 years old but looked like in their sixties. So i asked them about their health secret.
One said he eats white onions, cucumbers, carrot, tomatoes, long beans and jagung every morning. Except for 2 jagung which are boiled the rest he eats fresh with thousand dressing.
Another one drinks fruit juice every morning - orange, apple, grape, blue berry and straw berry.
These two men have been doing it for 10 to 20 years every morning. Both don't wear specs and still drive long distances
So i post this that all will benefit.
Yes, this afternoon i ate some raw carrot, white onion, tomatoes and cucumbers. Except for carrot which is quite tough the rest i just chomp up nicely. The thousand island salad dressing makes the vegetable palatable.
2018-04-22 21:58
Calvin, can you open a new topic with the title below:-
"Which counter will be benefited if Pakatan Harapan win in GE14, and also which counter to be avoid if Pakatan Harapan win in GE14"
The reason why I ask you to open this topic is because whenever I saw any topic related to GE14, it always tell people which counter to buy for GE14, and those author always assume Barisan Nasional will be the winner. For example, their top pick always is FGV, MRCB, KUB.... all the UMNO link counter.
Therefore, I need someone wisdom like you, to share your knowledge and opinion on the opposite thought. For example, if Pakatan win, the who are the Mahathir previous crony that will be benefited? Mahathir's son still holding which counter? If GST abolished, will consumer and car industry benefited? Which project will halted if BN lose? .....etc.
Really hope you can open a topic like I suggested, and thank you in advance first.
2018-04-24 08:18
Albukhary and Alex
Thank you.
I now in booming Iskandar. Will post later
2018-04-24 15:03
pus orange88 so busy flagging all my postings as abuse.
so nice.
let me make ur saturday fun.
lol............
Posted by joetay > Apr 28, 2018 10:11 PM | Report Abuse X
pus orange88 is activating his/her clones again.
pls report all my posts abt as abuse so that we can see ur true colors.
lol.............
2018-04-28 23:33
Compare to high rise serviced apartmnt, it is definitely better to choose landed property now, but it is also definitely not undervalue
2018-04-29 00:27
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peja87
UEMS up already..thanks calvin!
2018-04-22 16:01