THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

EKSONS(9016) : High NTA, 7% Dividend Plus Brighter Business Prospect Make It A Good Value Buy, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 21 Jun 2018, 08:14 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,804
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys,

 

EKSONS is now in my Investment Radar due to some Very Fundamental Changes Now:

 

And these are some Salient Factors

 

1) At 71.5 sen with NTA of Rm2.77 EKSONS is now selling at a Huge 75% Discount to NTA.

This is Another Very Defensive Stock with Deep Hidden Value.

 

2) A LOOK AT ITS NTA Reveals That It Has RM153 MILLIONS IN CASH & CASH EQUIVALENTS.

THIS IS 93 SEN NET CASH PER SHARE.

So at 71.5 SEN EKSONS is SELLING AT A NICE 24% DISCOUNT TO NET CASH ALONE.

THIS SHOWS THAT BY BUYING EKSONS AT 71.5 SEN YOU ARE GETTTING

 

BACK ITS VALUE IN CASH PLUS FREE CASH OF 21.5 SEN

PLUS ALL OTHER INVESTMENTS IN LANDS & FACTORIES FREE

ALL INVENTORIES OF PLYWOOD FREE

EKSONS ALSO GOT ANOTHER RM76 MILLIONS IN INVESTMENT SECURITIES WHICH TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER CASH HOARD OF 46 SEN

 

MAKING THE NET CASH POSITION OF EKSONS TO 93  SEN+ 46 SEN  = RM1.39

 

SO AT 71.5 SEN COST ALL ARE NOW GETTING 67.5 SEN FREE CASH (CASH, CASH EQIVALENT & INVESTMENT SECURITIES) 

 

WHOA! EKSONS LOOKS LIKE TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. BUT WHY THE PRICE SELL DOWN THEN?

 

IS EKSONS ANOTHER RED CHIP CHINA STOCK WITH COOKED BOOKS WITH FAKE ACCOUNTS?

 

3) HA! THE ACID TEST IS FINALLY OUT!!   2 TESTS IN FACT

ONE) INSIDERS ARE BUYING EKSONS SHARES FROM OPEN MARKET WITH THEIR OWN HARD EARNED MONIES

SEE

 

TWO) COMPANY HAS DECLARED A 5 SEN DIVIDEND WHICH IS AMOST 7% YIELD

AS DIVIDENDS CANNOT LIE ABOUT THE REAL HEALTH OF A COMPANY. CASH IS NOT JUST ON PAPER WHICH YOU CAN SEE IN XINQUAN BUT CANNOT TOUCH OR VERIFY..

FOR EKSONS CASH IS REAL & USEABLE AND SOON TO BE GIVEN TO ALL SHARE HOLDERS.

 

4) AND WHY THE SUDDEN DECLARATION OF A CASH DIVIDEND? IS THERE A POSITIVE SANGUINE SCENARIO GOING FORWARD. 

IN NATURE WHEN TREES ANTICIPATE GOOD TIMES THEY FLOWER MORE - THUS YIELDING TO MORE SEED AND A BOUNTIFUL HARVEST.

ANIMALS, TOO, WILL MULTIPLY AND PRODUCE MORE OFF SPRINGS IF THE CLIMATE AHEAD IS CONDUCIVE WITH ABUNDANT FOOD AND WATER.

IN BLEAK TIMES WHEN WEATHER IS BAD THERE ARE FEWER FLOWERS AND FEWER REPRODUCTION IN ANIMAL KINGDOM

SO EKSONS' MANAGEMENT SEE BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

I THINK THERE ARE SOME GOOD REASONS FOR SO DOING

A) THE ATMOSPHERE PROJECT IN SERDANG  IS NOW COMPLETED AND SOLD. SO CASH IS COMING IN. 

B) DEBT AND GEARING IS MINIMAL (ONLY RM20 MILLIONS) . SO WITH SO LITTLE DEBT AND SO MUCH SURPLUS CASH THE POSITION IS VERY COMFORTABLE

C) AND THE TRIGGER?

YES! SABAH GOVT HAS BANNED LOG EXPORTS. SO COMPANY WILL GET MORE LOGS AS RAW MATERIAL FOR ITS PLYWOOD MANUFACTURING PLANTS IN TAWAU, SABAH

D) LAST QUARTER RESULT WAS IMPACTED BY STRONGER RINGGIT. NOW THAT RINGGIT HAS AGAIN CRASHED TO RM4.00 PER USD PROFITS SHOULD REVERSE

E) USA HAS LOST LOTS OF HOUSES DURING THE RECENT TORNADOES, CANADA LOGS AFFECTED BY FOREST FIRES PLUS JAPAN WILL NEED PLYWOOD FOR ITS OLYMPIC STADIUM 2020

 

ALL THESE ARE INDEED VERY POSITIVE FACTORS FOR EKSONS

 

5) ONE MORE THING I NOTICED IS SAVVY INVESTOR LIM PEI TIAM IS TOP 6 HOLDER OF EKSONS

 

HA! I FIRST SAW HIM IN SUPER ENTERPRIZE. LIM PEI TIAM IS TOP OWNER WHO CHASED SUPER FROM RM1.25 TO RM3.80 UNTIL IT WAS TAKEN PRIVATE FOR A 200% UPSIDE

AGAIN I SAW LIM IN POHUAT (HE IS THE TOP TWO HOLDERS IN POHUAT (OR POWER HUAT) LIKE SUPER I ALSO CALLED FOR A BUY AT RM1.25 (EERILY POHUAT ALSO UP 200% TO RM3.80 & SPLIT)

AND WHEN I BOUGHT INTO DRB AT 92 SEN I ALSO SAW LIM PEI TIAM IN TOP 30 HOLDERS. DRB UP 200% TO OVER RM2.70

FINALLY WHEN I ISSUED BUY CALL FOR DUTALAND AT 39.5 SEN I SAW SAVVY LIM PEI TIAM HOLDING 4 MILLION DUTALAND SHARES.

WHO IS LIM PEI TIAM?

IN POHUAT TOP DIRECTORS LIM PEI TIAM IS AN EXPERIENCED BANKER WITH MORE THAN 20 YEARS EXPERIENCE

SO I AM HAPPY TO SEE HIM HERE IN EKSONS

 

SEE FROM EKSONS 2017 ANNUAL REPORT

 

UNDER 30 TOP HOLDERS OF EKSONS

 

COMING IN AT TOP NO.6

Is Lim Pei Tiam @ Liam Ahat Kiat 3,364,700....................... 2.05%

LIM IS HOLDING 3.36 MILLION EKSON SHARES AT 2.05%

 

6) QUESTION NOW IS

WILL EKSONS FOLOW SUPER ENTERPRIZE, POHUAT, DRB-HICOM AND GO UP 200%?

 

THAT IS NOT WHAT I EXPECT, MY FRIEND

IN TODAY'S CARNAGE I HOPE TO GET 50%.

ENOUGH IF EKSONS IS GREEN GREEN IN A SEA OF RED

 

WARMEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence

 

I HAVE CHOSEN EKSONS AS A DEFENSIVE STOCK FOR ITS NET CASH, 7% DIVIDEND & AWAY FROM THE CONTAGION OF MALAYSIA AUSTERITY IN SCRAPPING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS INTO A RESILIENT EXPORT STOCK NOW MADE BETTER BY SABAH GOVT BANNING LOG EXPORT

 

 

 

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments

ohbeeyee

fresh from his disaster high NTA MPCORP recommendation, which will go to suspension next monday, ( MPCORP price plunged from 10 sen to low of 2 sen , closed 6 sen today)

taiko Calvintaneng, the NTA king, comes out with another killer stock !
Yes, will sure get killed here like MPCORP..

just look at the very low volume, will be stuck here forever.

EKSONS have been loss making for past 3 years, with terrible ROE,and have not paid dividend for past few years, only declare one in June (5 sen, just a bait ?)
good luck to clueless followers of Calvintaneng !!

2018-06-21 20:45

apolloang

butaland 55cts give 5 cts div,cash rich cheaper alternative than this ACTION.....hehe

2018-06-21 20:48

calvintaneng

Is it so?

Calvin also recommended Focus Lumber because Sabah Govt banned log export

Calvin called for a buy on FLB at Rm1.07

And already got 2 sen dividend

So cost now only Rm1.05

Today Focus Lumber closed at Rm1.15 or up 10 sen (9.5% gain)

LET'S SEE HOW HIGH EKSONS WILL GO UP IN COMING QUARTERS AND YEARS


AS FOR MP CORP?

YESTERDAY AT 3 SEN I EVEN SAY CAN BUY

AND THOSE WHO BOUGHT MP CORP AT 3 SEN ALREADY MADE 3 SEN (OR 100%) ACCORDING TO ONE DAY DIFFERENCE

SO BE FORWARD LOOKING OK?

2018-06-21 20:51

calvintaneng

OH YES APOLLOANG

DUTALAND THE DURIANLAND HAS ALREADY GIVEN ITS RM50 MAU SANG WANG DURIAN LAH

NOW WE ARE IN A GARDEN OF FRUITING TREES (SHARES)

JUNE 27TH TA ENTERPRIZE GIVING 4.1 SEN DIVIDEND

JUNE 27TH EKSONS ALSO GIVING DIVIDEND OF 5 SEN

SO GOOD.

CALVIN LIKES ALL KINGS OF FRUIT TREES YIELDING FRUIT

WAHAHA!!!

2018-06-21 20:56

apolloang

I bought 3cts and sold 6 cts 2 days ago in less than 10 mins,but dare not buyback yesterday again at 3 cts.

2018-06-21 20:59

lizi

dividend have to be consistent, wondering why they stop paying since 2014 even though they capable of paying based on book.

2018-06-21 22:16

calvintaneng

Precisely it was bad fundamental that caused a sell down.

AS PRICE IS OVERSOLD TILL DEEP VALUE HAS EMERGED EVEN DIRECTORS CANNOT RESIST BUYING WITH OWN MONIES

SHARE BUY BACK AND DIRECTORS BUYING WITH OWNED HARD EARNED MONIES INDICATE A CHANGE OF CONFIDENCE

THE 5 SEN DIVIDEND IS ALSO ANOTHER POSITIVE SIGNAL

WHEN TOMMYPAK WAS 40 SEN IT SUDDENLY DECLARED A 4 SEN DIVIDEND. AFTER THAT ITS SHARE POWERED UP TO RM4.00 AND SPLIT.

BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WAS THE LACK OF LOG FOR MANUFACTURING OF PLYWOOD IN SABAH.

NOW THAT SABAH GOVT HAS TOTALLY BANNED PURE LOG EXPORT THE EQUATION HAS TURNED VERY FAVOURABLE FOR BOTH FOCUS LUMBER AND ALSO EKSONS

BOTH INSIDERS OF FOCUS LUMBER AND EKSONS HAVE NOW PUT OWN MONIES INTO THEIR NEW FOUND JOY OF STEP UP OPTIMISM IN MANUFACTURING FOR EXPORTS.

2018-06-21 22:54

Icon8888

“Further, the figures show that round log exports make up less than 18% of total round log production, the rest of the more than 80 per cent goes to the domestic downstream processing into mainly plywood and sawn timber.”

2018-06-21 22:56

Icon8888

The amount of logs exported is very small. So the ban unlikely free up lots of supply for locals

2018-06-21 22:57

calvintaneng

THERE IS A RANDOM WALK THEORY WHERE NEW EVENTS APPEAR ON THE SCENE THAT TRIGGER NEW DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES.

OR CREATE NEW CIRCUMSTANCES FOR BUSINESSES THAT ARE EITHER FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE.
IN THE CASE OF GOVT CALLING OFF HIGH VALUE CONTRUCTION JOBS THAT IMPACT CONSTRUCTION AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL COMPANIES BADLY

OR IN THIS THE BANNING OF LOG EXPORTS THAT IS FAVOURABLE FOR MAUFACTURERS OF PLYWOOD ESPECIALLY

2018-06-21 22:59

calvintaneng

AGAIN THINK CAREFULLY

EKSONS IS NOT ISSUEING RIGHTS CALL TO ASK FOR MONEY.

IT IS GIVING OUT REAL CASH DIVIDEND.
CASH LATENT OR GENERATED WHICH IS THE ULTIMATE FRUIT OF SOUND COMPANIES

2018-06-21 23:02

TheContrarian

Calvin, don't gulp up all tomorrow, leave a bit for me.

2018-06-21 23:07

calvintaneng

Good

Icon8888 give fair comment.

This is also what people don't know .
Unreported illegal logging.

So now that export of pure logs are banned these leakages will be stopped.

I know of one logging tycoon. He used to cut trees for logs illegally from trees outside his alloted domain.

And his excuse was. If he does not steal others will. And this is bad. So Sabah Govt has the real reason.

2018-06-21 23:10

calvintaneng

Haha! TheContrarian

I only invested 5% of capital and spread among so many counters .
So i just a small fry lah

2018-06-21 23:13

apolloang

small fry and got 5% share in your Johor syndicate investments? hehe

2018-06-21 23:18

TheContrarian

5% on one trillion is how much?

2018-06-21 23:31

teareader818

5% Spread over so many counters. So your commitment on new purchases on shares recommended by you is very small and gets smaller the more you recommend to buy. It shows that you have little or no confidence in your stock picks. Why, because you are unable to TIME your purchase. Stock picking of undervalued shares is no problem as there are so many undervalued shares around to pick on. But when will they start to move is what we want to know. IF YOUR SO CALLED RESEARCH IS ABLE TIME WHEN A SO CALLED UNDERVALUED SHARE RECOMMENDED BY YOU WILL START TO MOVE, I BET YOU'LL COMMIT 95% OF YOUR FUNDS TO IT. Am I right? TIMING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE. You can buy a good share at below it's intrinsic value, but if your timing is wrong it can still go lower.

2018-06-22 11:47

calvintaneng

teareader

Actually my first investment focus is into real estate....95% of my capital

Share investing is only a hobby.

I have been in property for more than 30 years.

For shares? Less than 20 years superficially.

Seriously? Only less than 10 years.

I think in another 10 to 20 years i should also improve my level like what i do in real estate.

As such i am here to learn and share about investing in share market.

So far there are ups and downs.

But overall it is a happy learning journer

MANY HAPPY RETURNS

2018-06-22 11:56

calvintaneng

No one can be 100% chun chun about a share.

That is why we must diversify into a basket of value, growth and if possible with dividend stocks.

And Sifus like Dr Neoh Soon Kean, ColdEye, Lim Pei Tian have proven successful in their long term stock picks.

If they have survived and prospered it is no harm learning from them.

And they in turn learn from Sifus like Ben Graham, Peter Lynch and accountants Warren Buffet

So success begets success

2018-06-22 12:00

davidkkw79

If your father knew that all his asset has been hollandized by you in this way... I think he probably rather donate to other people.

2018-06-22 12:02

teareader818

That said, you have to show more responsibility because unlike you, many of your readers are willing to commit 95% of their assets to shares. They most likely expect some price action in the short term and may not be financially strong enough to keep long term. I know it may be difficult as your research may suddenly `discover a gem' and you rush to let your readers (followers) know. What happens when this `gem' only begins to shine five or more years from now?

2018-06-22 12:16

joetay

Post removed.Why?

2018-06-22 12:20

Linus Kt

Lol...JoeTay funny you... why you follow Calvin everywhere???

2018-06-22 12:48

joetay6

Post removed.Why?

2018-06-22 13:03

TheContrarian

Ekson is holding steady.

2018-06-22 13:21

Linus Kt

JoeTay I think you're falling in love on him... that's why keep follow him to everywhere lol

2018-06-22 13:27

joetay

Post removed.Why?

2018-06-22 13:47

Fabien Extraordinaire

Interesting. Bought a bit to support Calvin.

2018-06-22 16:06

TheContrarian

Share buy back resumed yesterday.

2018-06-23 15:33

calvintaneng

Wahaha

Eksons hit limit up today!!!

2018-11-14 20:19

TheContrarian

Congratulations to Calvin's Chun Chun Call.

2018-11-14 21:14

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