2 “Vanitya] of vanities,” says the Preacher;
“Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.”

3 What profit has a man from all his labor
In which he b]toils under the sun?

4 One generation passes away, and another generation comes;
But the earth abides forever.

5 The sun also rises, and the sun goes down,
And c]hastens to the place where it arose.

6 The wind goes toward the south,
And turns around to the north;
The wind whirls about continually,
And comes again on its circuit.

7 All the rivers run into the sea,
Yet the sea is not full;
To the place from which the rivers come,
There they return again.

8 All things are d]full of labor;
Man cannot express it.
The eye is not satisfied with seeing,
Nor the ear filled with hearing.

9 That which has been is what will be,

That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.

10 Is there anything of which it may be said,
“See, this is new”?
It has already been in ancient times before us.

11 There is no remembrance of former things,
Nor will there be any remembrance of things that are to come
By those who will come after.

 

Cyclical events are everywhere if we will open our eyes to observe them. We live on a planet that is cyclical in shape. And the earth rotates. On its own axis and at the same time around the Sun. Every earth cycle is 24 hours or one day. Every earth circles round the Sun is 365 days.

 

1) EARTH CYCLE

 

The sun also rises, and the sun goes down,
And c]hastens to the place where it arose.

 

There is 12 hours daylight and 12 hours darkness as the earth rotates

 

 

2) WIND CYCLE

 

The wind goes toward the south,
And turns around to the north;
The wind whirls about continually,
And comes again on its circuit.

 

The North-East Monsoon is currently blowing from November to March

Here in Singapore I like End November, December & January months best as the cool wind from the North pole blows all the way to Singapore.

 

But too dangerous for fishermen to go out to the sea coasts of Pahang, Trengganu & Kelantan as waves could be as high as 5 meters to 6 meters .

 

 

3) WATER CYCLE

 

All the rivers run into the sea,

Yet the sea is not full;
To the place from which the rivers come,
There they return again.

 

THESE EVENTS OF NATURE AFFECT HUMAN LIFE AND ACTIVITIES

So we can deduct from here fishermen in East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia prosper when there is no North-east Monsoon. And when Monsoon returns they face bleak times

We also know that when Monsoon comes it brings rain which will cause floods in many parts of Kelantan, Trengganu, Pahang & Johor - leading to yearly floods

 

4) LIFE'S EVENTS ALSO OCCUR IN CYCLES AND ARE REPETITIVE

That which has been is what will be,

That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.

 

 

THIS IS HOW WE OBSERVE FROM PAST EXAMPLES & LESSONS. THEN APPLY WITH WISDOM FOR THE PRESENT MOMENT

 

To succeed we MUST learn from successes of the past. To avoid failure we must also look back to the follies of fools like Hitler and Jesse Livermore

 

 

 

"If I have seen further, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants," Isaac Newton

 

The metaphor of dwarfs standing on the shoulders of giants (Latin: nanos gigantum humeris insidentes) expresses the meaning of "discovering truth by building on previous discoveries".^[1] This concept has been traced to the 12th century, attributed to Bernard of Chartres. Its most familiar expression in English is by Isaac Newton in 1675: "If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants

 

"discovering truth by building on previous discoveries

Eactly!

Investment Success has already been recorded by men like Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, Warren Buffet, Walter Schloss, John Neff and many others. Their store of wisdom will help us to achieve success and avoid failures in investments.

 

NOW IT WAS PETER LYNCH WHO TAUGHT ABOUT INVESTING IN CYCLICAL STOCKS

Why Was Lynch different in his teachings?

Answer: BECAUSE PETER LYNCH HAS A VAST STORE OF INVESTMENT KNOWLEDGE

 

Look at their experiences

 

1) Warren Buffet succeeded in his field of concentration in 50 or more stocks

He invests after doing deep deep research into Geico, AMEx, Coca Cola, Walmart & Others

 

2) Walter Schloss diversified into 300 hundred or more VALUE NET NET STOCKS

Many are misunderstood, impaired or fallen on hard times. But still got HUGE RESIDUAL VALUE OF NET NET ASSETS

 

3) PETER LYNCH DIVERSIFIED & ROTATED INTO 2,000 SHARES MANY TIMES BUYING & SELLING ACCORDING TO THEIR BUSINESS CYCLES

SO ONLY PETER LYNCH COULD TEACH ABOUT INVESTMENT IN CYCLICALS

 

TO EACH HIS EXPERIENCE & TO EACH HIS STORE OF KNOWLEDGE & EXPERTISE

 

Let me illustrate

Suppose there live 3 people in Malaysia & Spore

 

1) LIVING ONLY IN KUALA LUMPUR

This guy only live his entire life in KL CITY.

Never for once travel out of KL to PJ or Klang

His world view is this. All is land. He has never seen the sea before. The only bodies of water is the Lake Garden

 

2) LIVING IN SELANGOR

Ha! This guy has gone out to Port Klang. Rode a boat into the open sea for fishing

So he is more knowledgable than the guy in KL City who 'Saw" No Sea.

 

3) This 3rd Guy lives in Singapore. He works for SIA (Singapore Airline) as an senior engineer

Every year he gets a yearly free ticket on SIA & travels round the world

After working for 40 years (my brother in law) he has seen many countries & experienced snow

 

NOW THE GUY IN KL AND THE GUY IN SELANGOR HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED "SNOW" BEFORE

SO THEY VEHEMENTLY DENY THE EXISTENCE OF SNOW?

How come so stupid? Very stupid!!

Same goes for those who deny the investment approach of buying into Cyclicals, Turnarounds or Assets play.

 

1) CYCLICALS (Like Peter Lynch)

2) Turnaround (Dr Marc Faber)

3) ASSETS PLAY (Walter Schloss is the expert)

 

They have Zero Knowledge and pass judgments on Turnaround Cyclicals  like Oil & Gas Stocks.

(Calvin won't mention their names today. If they still stubborn then next time Calvin will expose their stupidity!)

Many who know nothing about how Asset Plays like TALAM also condemn it.

In fact these 2 Are Very Successful in Investing in Cyclicals = PETER LYNCH Who even beat Warren Buffet

HOWARD MARKS became a Billionaire by Investing in Cyclicals

His masterpiece is "MASTERING THE CYCLICALS"

Why?

BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE SECRET OF THE CYCLICALS IN EARTH ROTATION, THE WIND CYCLE & THE WATER CYCLE & HUMAN NATURE & MARKETS ARE ALSO CYCLICAL

And above all they are "MASTERS OF TIMING THE MARKET CHUN CHUN"

 

Listen again

 

4) LIFE'S EVENTS ALSO OCCUR IN CYCLES AND ARE REPETITIVE

That which has been is what will be,

That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.

 

THAT WHICH HAS BEEN IS WHAT SHALL BE

 

Things happen again and again

Boom bust cycles of Commodities

 

THAT WHICH IS DONE IS WHAT WILL BE DONE

 

What happens now will happen again

At market bottom when there is fear just buy like a contrarian

At market peak when they say Dayang will go to Rm4.00 & greed is rampant = Sell

 

Batches of lambs go for the slaughter again and again repeatedly

 

And there is nothing new under the sun.