THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
TIME TO TAKE PROFIT ON HOT STOCKS & OTHERS DUE TO T3 TURNING T2 & OTHER REASONS, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Fri, 19 Apr 2019, 03:33 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,854
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi guys,
So far so good this very powerful bullrun Year for Oil & Gas Stocks, ECRL related stocks & Other laggards on rebound.
Calvin so happy for all making 100% gain. Some even made 200% to 300%. Congratulations!
Now is the time to take profit in high flyers & switch to Value Laggards. Or better still just Sell & Hold More Cash for the Following Reasons:
1) T3 to T2 WILL SAP LIQUIDITY
So very bad for day traders & contra players. From experience Calvin thinks 80% of i3 forumers are short term investors
So this withdrawal of liquidity will hit KLSE
Let me illustrate
In year 1990 Mr Gan of Speed Wheel Motor & Mr Soh were partners in selling Imported Mercedes Benz
Each Recon Merc Benz retails for Rm170K to Rm180K with profits ranging from Rm20,000 to Rm30,000 a unit when sold
So optismistic were they that they scouted for a place to sell Their Merc
Mr. Gan used to park his Merc Cars facing the Pj - Damansara Highways. But it was in his house Large Compound facing the Highway
Business was brisk. But being illegal the Majlis soon gave him summons and asked him to close down
Looking for a place hastily they found a Corner Coffee Shop in Taman Megah, PJ
He told the coffee shop Boss to let him take over the place for his Car Show Room. The rent was Rm6,000 a month
Mr. Gan & Mr Soh were willling to compensate the Coffee Shop Boss 13 months for giving way = Total Rm6000x13 = Rm78,000
Wow! Big Money in 1990/91 (recession years from 1985 to 1987 tin market crash)
Then Speed Wheels set up Shop selling Mercedes. Business was Ok and getting better
Then just one year later 1991/92 Finance Minister called for a Reduction of Car Loan Margin from 5 Years to 4 Years Repayment
Unforseen to Mr Gan & Mr Soh business collapsed over night!
From selling half a dozen Merc a month they sell only one and then dropped to Zero sales
SO THEY CLOSED SHOP FOR GOOD!!
Today for New Cars Loan can be up to 10 Years repayment
Last time It was T Plus 7
Now T Plus 3
Next will be T Plus 2 which will shrink Liquidity more
This will squeeze the pool of Liquidity & Bad for The Market
SO BETTER SELL THOSE THAT HAVE GONE UP ALOT
To be continued....
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research
Please Sell or Buy After Doing Your Due Diligence
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 84 comments
Give their number for what? U already know they won't tell due to privacy. How bout u upload the transaction for us to see? Dare?
Upload to those server, then put the link here.
2019-04-21 11:06
and predict the theme/ sector ahead of market play is excellent! So far I have bought 2 of stocks recommended, T7@0.505) MPCorp @0.045(suspended with almost Zero debt if ...)
2019-04-21 11:14
Personally, I like to buy stocks with depressed prices due to low business cycle but the companies must have manageable debt,asset backing
2019-04-21 11:18
lachai1960 and predict the theme/ sector ahead of market play is excellent! So far I have bought 2 of stocks recommended, T7@0.505) MPCorp @0.045(suspended with almost Zero debt if ...)
21/04/2019 11:14 AM
VERY SMART PURCHASES!
ESPECIALLY BUYING MP CORP AT 4.5 SEN JUST BEFORE SUSPENSION!!
THE ASSETS OF MP CORP ARE FAR MORE THAN ITS DEBTS
SO I THINK IT WILL EMERGE WITH MORE VALUE!!
2019-04-21 11:18
I don't why both of my phone's have problems of transmitting the details
2019-04-21 11:21
Posted by lachai2004 > Apr 21, 2019 11:20 AM | Report Abuse
MP Corp waiting for time to Harvest
WHOA!
YOU ARE REALLY ONE OF VERY RARE ONES IN i3 FORUM
YOU CAN EVEN BRAVE A SUBMERSIBLE LIKE MP CORP AND HOLD ON WITH HOPE?
MY GREAT RESPECT TO YOU
HATS OFF!!
YOU ARE ONE AMONG TEN THOUSAND DEEP VALUE INVESTORS!!
2019-04-21 11:23
not dare show your buy sell transcript? con man. buy call and got buy or not are two different things
2019-04-21 11:35
I Ike article by calvintaneng, kcchongnz,adi_investor, snowman investment, rhresearch,GP Alfred Chen,
2019-04-21 13:38
Lachai2004 did his own study then invest
This is better than those who just follow tips without personal investigation
2019-04-21 15:00
I still remember that I bought 2000 share of Gold Coin through HSBC bank @ Temerloh in late 80s. ^:^
2019-04-21 15:29
my 1st share purchased transaction! keep learning to manage risk of investment..
2019-04-21 15:31
conman Calvin, upload already? not dare to share? show us your 100% only mah, not show your naked body lol
2019-04-21 16:19
lachai2004 Thank you! @ for Easter Sharing ^:^
21/04/2019 3:35 PM
You are welcome
2019-04-21 16:28
UPDATE 1-Malaysia FTSE bond cut could mean $8 bln (ABOUT RM32 BILLIONS) outflows Morgan Stanley warns
3 MIN READ
(Adds detail, market reaction)
LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - Malaysia could see outflows of almost $8 billion if its bonds are downgraded after a review by global index provider FTSE Russell, Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
FTSE Russell said on Monday that it would review Malaysia’s market accessibility level in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI) due to concerns about market liquidity.
Malaysia’s currency and bonds weakened as investors worried about the prospect of its debt being removed from the index. Yields on Malaysia’s five-year benchmark bond gained more than 10 basis points, while those on three-year debt rose by more than 4 basis points.
Malaysia, currently assigned a ‘2’ and included in the WGBI since 2004, was being considered for a potential downgrade to ‘1’, making it ineligible for inclusion, FTSE said.
Foreign investors have been reducing their Malaysian government bond holdings since late 2016 and held $37 billion as of late March 2019, Morgan Stanley said.
THIS IS BECAUSE THEY PERCEIVE MALAYSIA USING TAX PAYERS MONEY TO BAIL OUT TABUNG HAJI & FGV (RM6.2 BILLIONS)
SO THEY ARE SELLING
THAT IS WHY ALL MUST BE VERY CAREFUL NOT TO CHASE HIGH FLYING HOT STOCKS NOW!
2019-04-21 16:49
AND MAYBANK WILL SUFFER A RM1.9 BILLIONS DEBT DEFAULT BY HYFLUX IN SINGAPORE
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/maybank-intends-to-appoint-receivers-and-managers-for-tuaspring-assets
WITH LIQUIDITY DRAINED AND MANY COMPANIES IN DEBT DISTRESS LIKE JAKS, SEACERA, PERISAI, BARAKAH, ALAM, PERDANA, SCOMI, KNM, DAYA, SUMATECH, THHEAVY, SAPNRG, BUMI ARMADA THERE WILL BE A BIG SQUEEZE LEADING TO MORE RIGHTS ISSUE OR PRIVATE PLACEMENT
IF STILL CANNOT RAISE CAPITAL THEN INSOLVENCY LIKE STONE MASTER AND THEN BANKRUPTCY
SO BETTER BE VERY CAREFUL NOW!!
2019-04-21 16:55
Final reminder
Sell high flying hot stocks especially those that have surged up alot
Switch to Laggards with value for capital preservation
Best if you keep cash
2019-04-22 01:13
Cash becomes King in a shrinking market due to
1. Maybank losing Rm1.8 billions in Hyflux saga
2. T3 turns T2
3. Possible foreign monies leaving Malaysia to the tune of Rm32 Billions
4. Norway Pension Funds withdrawing from Malaysia
They say in the land of the blind the one eyed man is King
So in a time of panic into Cash....Cash rich individual and cash rich companies will reign supreme
2019-04-22 01:17
T3 or T2 or even T1 makes no difference for share punters at all otherwise all Casinos are of T1 ...
2019-04-22 06:08
Cash crunch comes together as One
1. T3 to T2
2. Rm1. 9 Billions Maybank loan to Hyflux goes up in smoke
3. Rm32 billions foreign bond selling and leaving Malaysian shores
4. Norway leaving EM bonds
5. Will Norges Fund also sell EM shares?
Will it be a repeat of 1997/8 when funds flee
2019-04-22 07:28
SINK
Due to T3 turns T2. Dow crashed when Power raise interest rate and cut back bond buying
SINK
Due to Rm32 Billions bond money leaving
SINK
Due to Maybank saga with Hyflux and Norges Fund leaving EM shares. Norway confirmed selling EM bonds
2019-04-22 07:32
Trump was mad at Fed Boss Powell for shrinking liquidity which was bad for market
2019-04-22 07:33
So take profits now when the taking is still good
Sell early and sell fast before there is a stampede of selling
2019-04-22 07:35
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip
Foreign funds have been fleeing Malaysia since 2014.
1. Who cares what the contra is. In many countries ( even in nasdaq) where I invest there is no such thing as contra. Everything is moving day faster and more efficiently. You put money in interstate l immediately, you get money out immediately. It will not change the business fundamentals of bursa much.
2. Maybank makes 2 billion in earnings every quarter. If the loan goes up in smoke, will it be a continuous drag on future mbb earnings? No right? It will be at most a one time thing. The share price will definitely drop, causing mbb shares to be very very enticing. Look at salad oil crisis for amex. Same theory. Most likely same investment pattern. You have me another chun Chun buy call in Maybank this year.
3. Bond selling and foreign investor fleeing has been going since 2013. Here is real data.10 years for you to understand where we are in the market cycle.
https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-direct-investment
Changing of government will always bring the stock market down. As long as you did not buy on margin, you will be ok. The drag on all boats will be unfortunate, but that means you will have a big discount for you to buy ( I bought gkent, pchem using the same methodology). In the long run with a transparent, new government with a interest in making the country ( not themselves) successful like in Singapore. I am VERY VERY optimistic in Malaysia's long term future. After have only one side of the coin for more than 50 years, I am excited to see how the other side will perform. If you can buy it cheap now, when Malaysia overall business starts to turn out better ( we are already in the worst position in decades), at the bottom we can only look up.
Be patient, if the foreign investment leaves, when Malaysian companies starts performing, they will be back with a vengeance.
4.& 5. The main reason for them leaving is because of low confidence in Malaysian business and stock market. There are many many value traps in bursa, many crooks, many goreng counters. Once all the bad companies are flushed out, companies like talamt, protasco, sumatec, karambunai, destini, t7, basically all of Calvin tan value traps are squeezed out and delisted, proper healthy companies will be left. After this great housecleaning, you will have more minority shareholders investing in good performing, dividend giving companies instead of all the really wonderful Malaysian companies being privatised left right center and nothing for us smallholders ( weida, old town coffee, bernas, etc).
Imagine if you were a foreign investor, would you invest money into North Korea?
Confidence and reliability is key. I look forward to a Malaysia spring cleaning.
2019-04-22 07:55
Tunnel vision philip has read Walter Schloss already?
Rm32 billions going out from Malaysian Bond will sap liquidity!
Norway also getting out of EM market
Already reflected on low KLSE index
Any further weakness will hammer companies with high borrowings
All will be dragged down as well
SO BETTER WAKE UP!
2019-04-22 08:52
Our market one day show got effect meh?hehe...if already reflected then the only way is to going up...hehe
2019-04-22 08:59
Hi, Calvin, how abou muiprop, destini, T7 & even velesto ? Can keep or ... Thank you.
2019-04-22 09:11
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip
Calvintaneng Tunnel vision philip has read Walter Schloss already?
>>>>>>>>>
You think just because you invest in 50 stocks you become Walter Schloss? In that case if I go jogging every day then I am comparable to Usain bolt?
Very funny. Walter Schloss won't invest money in twlamt, destini and other lousy counters like you lah
2019-04-22 11:55
Tahnks Mr Cal AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD and MRCB
Congra to all holders for MRCB WCT AZ IWcity Eko
ThanksMr Calvin for Tips on MRCB and AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD
I buy MRC abd AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD at lowest price becaose of MR Calvin good reports and I agreed Calvin on MR and AZ
And Guys must must must remeber Ivan principle, theory, philosophy
remeber
Expensive share can be even more expensive , Overvalue company can be even more Overvalued
Undervalued can be crazy undervalued again
So Ivan still Keep AZ , WCT EKO MRCB Iwicity , and Ivan just wake up only, Ivan is slepp until around 2 PM so thay why Ivan said Ivan not see morning stock only afternoon
Why , Because Ivan still got other job Ivan only will spend 2 hours to watch if over Ivan rugi because Ivan other job also can earn more money than market .
Ivan is long term keep a rugi company until profit example Reach,AZ, Mrcb.Iwcity keep 1 years
trop mkland keep more than 3 years
so Ivan no need everyday see market also OK becos I play long term
Remember the important part: cheaper company can go cheaper like bjgroup .bjland .
expensive company can even more expensive like Ranhil . topgkive top glove. favco. supermax . iwcity
26166 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 20, 2019 3:52 PM | Report Abuse
Ivan is clever!!
2019-04-22 13:45
gogreen Hi, Calvin, how abou muiprop, destini, T7 & even velesto ? Can keep or ... Thank you.
22/04/2019 9:11 AM
YES
THEY ARE STILL CHEAP WITH GOOD VALUE SO JUST KEEP
BUT TODAY FOR SUDDEN REBOUND MUST SELL THOSE THAT GO UP ALOT
THOSE WHO CHASED LIMIT UP SHARES WILL SUFFER LATER
2019-04-22 16:14
T7 global is now cheap to buy as well as Uzma and Azrb
Rm21.7 billions job by Petronas will go to either one or all 3 here.
So after the recent sell down bargains have appeared
Those who have cash can now buy slowly
2019-06-01 17:33
Chun Chun sell call in April before Market collapsed in May
Now June is a time for slow, steady accumulation
2019-06-01 17:34
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lachai1960
Calvintaneng,
I have been following your recommendation of stocks for quite sometimes, your method of selecting stocks
2019-04-21 11:05