THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
3 HOME GROWN INDUSTRIES OF MALAYSIA GONE INTO BULL RUN: OGSE (2019), MEDICAL GLOVES (2020), PALM OIL (2021) Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 06 Oct 2021, 10:47 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,733
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends of i3 Forum
With FCPO Crossing Rm5,000 today - the 3rd Bull Run Theme for Malaysia Home Grown Industry is now Confirmed Officially
RM5,000 is a New World Record for Palm Oil
See
| 13 | FCPO | Oct 2021 | 5,019.00 | - | 5,150.00 | 5,067.00 |
+92.00
|
5,096.00 | 5,019.00 | 346 | 3,610 | 5,067.00 |
| 14 | FCPO | Nov 2021 | 4,936.00 | 4,733.00 | 5,000.00 | 4,985.00 |
+130.00
|
5,000.00 | 4,923.00 | 3,492 | 25,158 | 4,985.00 |
| 15 | FCPO | Dec 2021 | 4,816.00 | 4,848.00 | 4,893.00 | 4,871.00 |
+133.00
|
4,880.00 | 4,804.00 | 24,729 | 72,385 | 4,872.00 |
YES! On this Memorable historic day of October 6th 2021 FCPO (Oct 2021) Finally broke through the Rm5,000 barrier into a New World Record for the world of palm oil in general and for Malaysia in particular as Malaysia is the World 2nd Exporter of Palm oil just as Medical Gloves were Malaysia's Number One Export last year.
So we have 3 Consecutive Years of Bull Run
Year 2019 : OGSE Upstream bull run when Petronas Pumped Rm30 Billions for Upstream OGSE Players
Year 2020: Coronavirus triggered panic buying of Malaysian Gloves from World wide Governments
And Year 2021: We witness Cpo prices breaking into Multi year Record Highs of Rm5,067
The Extraordinary Windfall of Glove Locked in Sale from June 2020 to June 2021 brought in ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF PROFITS From Pre-Order, Pre-Booked & UP FRONT PRE-PAYMENT FOR GLOVES ORDERED - CAUSING A ONCE IN A LIFE TIME GLOVE SUPER BULL RUN & NOW OVER
SO THE EXTRA ORDINARY PROFITS OF SUCH HIGH RECORD CPO PRICES WILL BRING IN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF CASH TO ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES AS WELL
AS EXPERTS HAVE NOW GIVEN BULLISH FORECAST THAT CPO PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED TILL 1ST HALF OF YEAR 2022
WE CAN EXPECT RESULTS FOR
NOVEMBER 2021 TO BE EXCELLENT
(Reporting for 3 months qtr of July, August & September 2021 when Cpo averages at Rm4,417 a metric ton)
FEBRUARY 2022 RESULTS SHOULD EXCEL
(Reporting for October, November & December 2021 FFB or Fresh Fruit Bunch harvests)
Since today Oct 6 Cpo is RM5,067 the earnings will reflect such high prices
See again
| 13 | FCPO | Oct 2021 | 5,019.00 | - | 5,150.00 | 5,067.00 |
+92.00
|
5,096.0 |
These are Exciting, Extra Ordinary Times! In those bleak times Cpo fell to as low as Rm1,700 per ton in open market leaving very slim profits in those lean years. Now no more!
WE ARE GOING INTO UNCHARTED TERITORY AS CPO HAS BREACHED THE HIGHEST PRICES OF RM4,500 PER TON IN THOSE GOOD OLD TIMES TO AN AMAZING NEW RECORD OVER RM5,000 NOW!
AND WE CAN EXPECT ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES TO BREAK OUT INTO NEW RECORDS AS WELL
Take Glove Bull Time as an Example
Calvin & friends used to see Supermax Cycle
In those times Supermax would boomed up to Rm3.00 , then split by one for one free bonus back to Rm1.50
After that the next cycle brought Supermax up to over Rm3.00 & split again
Last year we bought Supermax at Rm1.73 & expected Supermax to go till Rm3.00 & split by One for One free bonus again
But that was no ordinary Cycle.
We were totally caught by surprise! Supermax turned supersonic & powered up to Rm24.44 & only then split by One for One Free Bonus
Will there be a Big Surprise in store for all Palm Oil Stocks this Coming Bull Run Time?
Yet to be seen as "Future" is unknown
But we can "SEE" the Signs ahead & they tell us Bullish Events are Unfolding
1) China shut down its factories due to lack of electric power - leading to little Soybean milling. Without milling there won't be enough soymeal & soy oil
SO CHINA MUST BUY PALM OIL TO MEET THE SHORTFALL
2) NOVEMBER 14 is DIWALI CELEBRATION FOR INDIA's 1.35 BILLION PEOPLE
3) DECEMBER 25 IS CHRISTMAS & FOLLOWED BY NEW YEAR CELEBRATION OF YEAR 2022
Every cake, ice cream or feasting involves palm oil
4) FEBRUARY 1ST 2022: 1.4 BILLION STRONG CHINESE CELEBRATE CHINESE LUNAR NEW YEAR WITH 15 DAYS OF FEASTING - LOTS OF PALM OIL NEEDED
5) VERY COLD WINTER AHEAD: SO HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICES EXPECTED - HELPING TO KEEP PALM OIL ELEVATED AS IT IS USED AS ALTERNATE BIODISEL FOR GREEN ENERGY
6) THEN USA TURNING ITS FOSSIL FUEL REFINERY TO BIODISEL REFINERY WILL GIVE BIODISEL A SUSTAINED UP-LIFT
THESE AND OTHER MULTIPLE FUNDAMENTAL STRUCTURAL FACTORS ARE GAME CHANGERS FOR PALM OIL BULL RUN TIME
HOW LONG WILL PALM OIL BULL RUN LAST?
THAT WE CANNOT TELL
BUT IT WON'T BE FORESTALLED LIKE GLOVE DUE TO IMMENSE GLUT & THE CHINA FACTOR
WHY?
ANSWER: UNLIKE GLOVE WHEN CHINA COULD SET UP NEW GLOVE FACTORIES IN JUST 4 TO 6 MONTHS YOU NEED LAND & PLANTING TIME FOR PALM OIL TO GROW TILL FIRST FRUIT : AT LEAST 5 YEARS TO SEE COMPETITION (SO PALM OIL HAS HIGH TIME BARRIER TO ENTRY TILL YEAR 2026)
WILL PALM OIL BULL RUN LAST TILL YEAR 2026?
AGAIN THAT WE CANNOT SAY FOR SURE
BUT THIS IS SURE
THE PALM OIL BULL IS STILL A VERY YOUNG BULL
AND IT STILL GOT TIME TO GROW UP INTO A FULL BLOWN MATURED BULL
SO BETTER TAKE POSITION NOW AND DON'T MISS THE BULL RUN YET AHEAD
WARM REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or in doubt go find Expert Counsel for Your Investment Safety
STOP PRESS!!!
Latest Good News!
*Good afternoon from RHB Plantations Team!*
*CPO one month futures shot past MYR5,000/tonne*
♦️ *What should investors do?*Ride the wave. This is practically one of the first times this year that share prices are moving in tandem with CPO prices. For investors who have been waiting for this sector to do something all year, now is the time to ride the wave and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits.
♦️ *Can this rally last?* There was no fundamental change that happened over the last few days to trigger this sudden spike. Plantation monthly stats due to come out next week are likely to show a reduction in stocks on the back of improved exports, however the reduction is expected to be minimal, therefore insignificant. We believe this jump above MYR5,000 may be short lived as we continue to expect next year's fundamentals of supply to improve, with a moderation of CPO prices in 2022. Main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalities.
♦️ *If I want to partake in the rally, what should I BUY?* We would recommend liquid big cap names like Sime and IOI. Sensitivity to CPO price movement may not be as significant as the smaller cap names, but liquidity is there so that investors are able to be nimble.
♦️ *Any change to our UW sector call?* Not at this moment. Our call is a 12 month call, and we still believe in the wake of improving fundamentals and moderating prices in 2022, earnings will be weaker YoY, while ESG concerns will still have a part to play in valuations of the sector as a whole. We continue to like the smaller cap names like SOP and Ta Ann in Malaysia, integrated players like First Resources and Wilmar in Singapore and London Sumatra In Indonesia.
♦️ *RHB Research*
Note: We continue to like the smaller cap names like SOP and Ta Ann in Malaysia,
RHB RESEACH IS SMART & CLEVER TO CHOOSE THESE TWO EXCELLENT ONES
SOP (SARAWAK OIL PALM) Calvin's Target Price one year: RM8.00
TA ANN (GREAT PEACE) Target Price Rm6.00
06/10/2021 10:50 PM
06/10/2021 10:50 PM
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 17 of 17 comments
Three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables. The rest will be coming from our Plantation Bio Fuel and Malaysia is the 2nd Biggest Exporter of Palm Oil.
Crude palm oil (CPO) futures price rose to RM5,000 a tonne for the first time on Tuesday. Our palm oil exports is expected to grow by 39% m-o-m and 0.3% y-o-y in September 2021 to 1.62 million tonnes, likely due to higher exports to India, China and the EU (European Union)
Meanwhile Fossil Energy prices continue to surge to fresh records as renewed fears stoke panic of the worst shortage in decades. India has warned it has only four days of coal reserves left, German power plants are running out of fuel and China just unloaded an Australian coal shipment despite an import ban and icy relations. Supply is just not there as economies rebound from a pandemic-induced lull, while problems like logistical logjams and transport bottlenecks are adding to the pressure.
Bigger picture: OPEC+ didn't come to the rescue yesterday as the group decided to continue its original plan of gradually releasing 400,000 additional barrels of oil per month. That's despite calls from world leaders, including the White House, to bring more crude on to the market and keep a lid on prices.
It's looking good guys from both Frontiers. Mabel Energy Battleships and Supertankers as well as Bio Fuel Plantation are cruising at full speed.
Meow Meow Meow
2021-10-07 08:40
@Calvin, I found SOUTHERN ACIDS (M) Bhd also great value involved in palm oil and also with lots of prime land. How you think?
2021-10-07 10:22
I think SAB got more than 12k ha of palmoil in indonesia loh!
And it has more than 3000 acres of plantation land, at prime property development area in kota kamuning shah alam mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 7, 2021 12:46 PM | Report Abuse
Sebastian
Southern Acids is more into downstream oleochemical and other businesses
it has less than 1,000 acres of palm oil
Cpo high prices will benefit upstream the most
Go for those with VERY LARGE PALM OIL LANDS LIKE
THPLANT (240,000 ACRES)
SOP (300,000 ACRES)
BPLANT (220,000 ACRES)
JTIASA (206,000 ACRES)
TAANN: IT OWNS SWLPLANT
TSH RESOURCES: IT IS ALSO TOP 2ND HOLDER OF INNOPLANT
ALL ABOVE GOT OVER 200,000 ACRES EACH
SPORE LAND MASS IS 180,000 ACRES
SO IMAGINE HOW BIG THESE LAND HOLDERS
2021-10-07 12:50
Sebastian
Southern Acids is more into downstream oleochemical and other businesses
it has less than 1,000 acres of palm oil (too small)
Cpo high prices will benefit upstream the most
Go for those with VERY LARGE PALM OIL LANDS LIKE
SOP (300,000 ACRES)
THPLANT (240,000 ACRES)
BPLANT (220,000 ACRES)
JTIASA (206,000 ACRES)
TAANN: IT OWNS SWKPLANT
TSH RESOURCES: IT IS ALSO TOP 2ND HOLDER OF INNOPLANT
ALL ABOVE GOT OVER 200,000 ACRES EACH
SPORE LAND MASS IS 180,000 ACRES
IT TAKES ONE HOUR TO DRIVE FROM TUAS WEST TO CHANGI AIRPORT EAST
AND 40 MINUTES TO DRIVE FROM WOODLANDS NORTH TO SENTOSA ISLAND SOUTH OF SINGAPORE
SO IMAGINE HOW BIG THESE LAND HOLDERS ARE
2021-10-07 12:52
See this
OIL PALM STOCKS IN Bull Run Time: Those Prepared with Biggest Capacity Will Always Excel More Than Others, Calvin Tan
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-09-23-story-h1571677668-OIL_PALM_STOCKS_IN_Bull_Run_Time_Those_Prepared_with_Biggest_Capacity_W.jsp
2021-10-07 12:54
DO NOT LET CALVIN MISLEAD U LOH!
I think SAB got more than 12k ha of palmoil in indonesia loh!
And it has more than 3000 acres of plantation land, at prime property development area in kota kamuning shah alam mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 7, 2021 12:46 PM | Report Abuse
Sebastian
Southern Acids is more into downstream oleochemical and other businesses
it has less than 1,000 acres of palm oil
Cpo high prices will benefit upstream the most
Go for those with VERY LARGE PALM OIL LANDS LIKE
THPLANT (240,000 ACRES)
SOP (300,000 ACRES)
BPLANT (220,000 ACRES)
JTIASA (206,000 ACRES)
TAANN: IT OWNS SWLPLANT
TSH RESOURCES: IT IS ALSO TOP 2ND HOLDER OF INNOPLANT
ALL ABOVE GOT OVER 200,000 ACRES EACH
SPORE LAND MASS IS 180,000 ACRES
SO IMAGINE HOW BIG THESE LAND HOLDERS
2021-10-07 12:56
Actually when crude oil was at USD30/barrel to USD40/barrel, all oil producing companies froze their expansion plans and also came the Covid-19 pandemic which added salt to the wounds, resulting in shotfall of crude oil in the market.
The Saudis want to revalue their corporatised investments at USD2.0 Trillion now in view of the increase price of crude oils.
So, fuel supply especially in West have fallen short.
Also, ESG, etc making bio-fuel as a quicker alternative.
Thus, commodities' prices stay high for feel into this shortage of fuels.
2021-10-07 13:03
it is ok since unintentional loh!
SAB main value is its plantation land in indonesia, the sizeable cheap development land in prime location kota kemuning shah alam, its oleo chemical plant in klang call southern acid & it own a highly profitable hospital in klang mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 7, 2021 1:02 PM | Report Abuse
Oh sorry
Sifu Raider is correct!
I double check
Southern Acids got 20,000 acres of oil palm lands in Indonesia
I overlooked
2021-10-07 13:06
Oh sorry
Sifu Raider is correct!
I double check
Southern Acids got 20,000 acres of oil palm lands in Indonesia
I overlooked
But no 3,000 acres in Kota Kamuning
Stated there in 2021 Annual Report Southern Acids own 644 acres in Kampung Jawa, Klang
In any case total still about 30,000 acres which is rather small
GO FOR THE ONES WITH THE MOST PALM OIL LANDS OVER 200,000 ACRES LIKE THPLANT, TSH RESOURCES, TAANN, SOP, BPLANT, JTIASA & FGV STILL THE BEST FOR NOW
2021-10-07 13:06
REMEMBER
The key is SAB already highly profitable even palmoil price is at Rm 2000 & above Rm 4000 SAB will be highly profitable mah!
2021-10-07 13:26
See KM Loong example will know about Cpo downstream
KMLOONG Said when Cpo prices were low they made more from milling and less from FFB (fresh fruit bunches)
Now Cpo very high prices their Oil Palm will earn more than milling
Read this article below Very Very Carefully all will KNOW THE TRUTH
Kim Loong Resources eyes record year amid high CPO prices (The Lessons Revealed From Edgedaily Interview with KM Loong, Comments by Calvin Tan
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-08-28-story-h1570606253-Kim_Loong_Resources_eyes_record_year_amid_high_CPO_prices_The_Lessons_R.jsp
2021-10-07 13:43
SAcids ok
from here can make 20% to 30%
Still we go for pure upstream palm oil companies best
During Ogse Bull run of 2019 Upstream maintenance can make 300% to 500%
Last year True Medical glove stocks up from 500% to 1,000%
So we must zero in one the very best pure upstream palm oil shares now
2021-10-07 18:57
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