THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
A COMING SUPERBULL RUN TIME FOR PALM OIL IS INEVITABLE AS CPO AT WORLD RECORD OVER RM5,000 A TON, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 30 Oct 2021, 03:06 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,841
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends who visit here,
They said, “Self praise is international disgrace”. For that we have refrained from boasting of our achievements the past two great bull run years of Malaysia.
2019 Was Oil & Gas Bull Run of Malaysia’s OGSE
When Petronas pumped Rm30 Billions capex for Maintenance Jobs which propelled stocks like Carimin, Uzma, Penery & Dayang from 100% to 500%. Under normal growth a Company gives 5% to 10% growth. Fast growth might give you 15% to 25%
Only Super normal CATALYST due to very high Crude Oil (As high as USD140) gave Petronas Out-sized Cash Inflow that Gave out RM30 BILLIONS For Upstream that Triggered that Bull run of 2019 (Now game over as Oil still below USD90)
That year of 2019 we “CUTLOSS” painfully in many other less promising & even stocks with losses of 20% to 40% to go ALL IN OGSE
In was a very Sharp & Accurate Move then as We Made a Gross 100% profit for that year. After deducting from all Losses (form those under performance stocks which we decided to “CUTLOSS” and freed up capital) We still made a “Net” 50% gain.
Very exhilarating to know we could beat Peter Lynch of Magellan Fund at 29% & Warren Buffet’s Berkshire at 25%
Last Year Malaysia’s Super Bull (Once in A Century Event due to World Wide Coronavirus) we made An Astounding 400% from Medical Gloves & healthcare stocks – beating all others all over the world including Ark Invest of Cathie Wood at 100%
Our 400% beaten Ark Invest’s 100% by 4 Times!
Again this was the Extra Ordinary “CATALYST” from Covid 19 demand. Now with over production & Challenge from Thailand & China Fierce Competion Gloves are in Deep Trouble as it has no mode & no barrier to entry. So MUST SELL ALL GLOVES
What Now?
NOW IS PALM OIL
YES! PALM OIL
PALM OIL HAS MANY MANY CATALYSTS
Among them are Droughts, Floods, World Population Growth, Restriction of Land Conversion from Forest to new oil palm cultivation, Banning of further license for oil palm in both Malaysia & Indonesia, AND ABOVE ALL OTHERS – THE RISE OF BIODISEL REFINERIES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (Only Oil Palms being 100% Bio (Life) Biology (Study of Life) & Biodisel
Power that derives from “LIFE” plants is 100% (YES ONE HUNDRED PER CENT CLEAN & GREENEST ENERGY) on Planet earth. Solar used lots of Aluminium & glass which are NOT Biodegradable. So ULTIMATELY PALM OIl being used as food in over 50% of Super Market products & BIODISEL will now TRIGGER A BULL RUN (while both OGSE & GLOVE Have only one short year of Bull Run — Palm oil might see Multi Years Bull Run. So prepare to INVEST NOW FOR THE LONG HAUL)
Next month November 2021 Malaysia Oil Palm Companies will Report Fantastic Results Again!
Based on these
July, August & September 2021 Cpo averaged Rm4,417 per Ton in price
Taking Thplant Cost of Cpo Production at Rm1,465 we calculate
Rm4,417 – Rm1,465
= Rm2,952
A Whopping 201% Profit
AND BEST IS YET TO COME!
Now in Oct 2021 CPO Has Reached as high as Rm5,400
If we take the Average of just Rm5,000
Every ton would have increased in price by
Rm5,000 – Rm4,417
= Rm583 Per Ton Extra without extra effort!
AND THIS TOGETHER WITH NOV & DEC MONTH Will Be Reported in Year 2022 February Results which will be Fantastic To Super Normal
People say CPO Prices Have Gone Up A lot But Prices of Oil Palm Companies Not Moving? So they Avoid?
Let Calvin give you these Two Vital Answers
Who Cares about Stock Prices?
Warren Buffet Said buy a Stock which even if they Closed the Stock Market for the next ten years also not a problem.
No problem even if there is no stock quotation for the next ten years?
Yes! Behind every stock is a Real Company Selling goods or providing Services.
Take Coca Cola or Walmart for example: No stock price quotation does not matter as they Function Well Every Day
So Prices not moving up does not matter as LONG AS COMPANY IS DOING A ROARING BUSINESS & MONEY ROLLING IN LIKE NIAGARA FALLS!
Stock prices might not move. BUT CASH IS MOVING INTO COMPANIES OF OIL PALM SHARES. They will still be coming out as STREAMS OF HIGH DIVIDENDS, SPECIAL DIVIDENDS & FREE BONUS FREE WARRANTS LATER
SECOND REASON
IF WE KNOW A COMPANY IS EARNING 200% TO 300% EXTRA While Its Stock Prices Still Not Moving We should SELL OTHER LESS PROMISING STOCKS & SWITCH EVEN MORE INTO OIL PALM SHARES
We should even “CUTLOSS” in others And Put More into Oil Palm Laggards
And These are the Top 9 Oil Palm Stocks. Top 7 all got over 200,000 Acres of Plantations
- TAANN (A very honest company)
- THPLANT (Deep Value)
- BPLANT (High Dividend)
- JAYA TIASA (Turnaround story)
- TSH RESOURCES (Insider Boss buying)
- SOP (HIGH GROWTH. A Must Have)
- FGV (Cornered for privatisation)
- TDM (Well balanced with 4 hospitals)
- WTK (Deep value asset play)
From above chart we SEE Palm oil prices have broken 2008, 2011 record high prices to reach Mt Everest peak prices.
So EARNINGS of All Oil Palm Companies will be ROLLING IN CASH LIKE NIAGARA FALLS
Palm oil Companies will SEE CASH FLOW ROLLING IN LIKE NIAGARA FALLS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPdHUSG9fwg
Yes in 2019 we enjoyed 100% gain from OGSE Bull Run
2020 We made 400% from Glove Superbull
2021/2 will be Superbull Earnings for Oil Palm
ROLLING IN CASH LIKE NIAGARA FALLS FOR ALL OIL PALM COMPANIES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB6gHz8XHDI
We expect to make from 50% to 200% Due to the Powerful CATALYST Of Palm oil both Food & Fuel (Green Fuel)
Just buy and hold for one year till October 2022 from now.
“SUSTAIN YOUR PATIENCE GREAT MOVEMENTS TAKE TIME TO DEVELOP”
Warm Regards
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult any good Remiser/Fund Manager
Above are Malaysian Listed Oil Palm stocks
For Singapore
Bumitama
Goldenagri
Wilmar
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS ON OCT 30TH 2021
After the budget speech some ignoramus & Dirty IB Bankers have posted to say Palm Oil will be among losers
Your must see & differentiate carefully
Don't simply believe
Look at the Cpo prices below
| 13 | FCPO | Nov 2021 | 5,360.00 | - | 5,650.00 | 5,436.00 |
+126.00
|
5,440.00 | 5,360.00 | 825 | 6,293 | 5,402.00 |
| 14 | FCPO | Dec 2021 | 5,146.00 | 4,970.00 | 5,300.00 | 5,226.00 |
+115.00
|
5,255.00 | 5,146.00 | 5,520 | 32,757 | 5,227.00 |
| 15 | FCPO | Jan 2022 | 4,969.00 | 4,995.00 | 5,047.00 | 5,023.00 |
+94.00
|
5,054.00 | 4,964.00 | 28,171 | 81,005 | 5,026.00 |
| 16 | FCPO | Feb 2022 | 4,839.00 | 4,711.00 | 5,000.00 | 4,877.00 |
+77.00
|
4,904.00 | 4,831.00 | 10,140 | 36,827 | 4,881.00 |
| 17 | FCPO | Mar 2022 | 4,719.00 | 3,860.00 | 5,000.00 | 4,750.00 |
+71.00
|
4,768.00 | 4,704.00 | 6,465 | 24,187 | 4,755.00 |
| 18 | FCPO | Apr 2022 | 4,596.00 | - | 4,900.00 | 4,631.00 |
+77.00
|
4,637.00 | 4,580.00 | 3,208 | 14,855 | 4,632.00 |
| 19 | FCPO | May 2022 | 4,467.00 | - | - | 4,514.00 |
+70.00
|
4,515.00 | 4,458.00 | 2,903 | 19,774 | 4,514.00 |
| 20 | FCPO | Jun 2022 | 4,349.00 | - | - | 4,403.00 |
+73.00
|
4,404.00 | 4,339.00 | 1,760 | 8,934 | 4,403.00 |
As you can see above Fcpo price for November 2021 is at Rm5,436
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Malaysia has agreed to raise the threshold for its palm oil windfall profit levy effective next year and will set the tax rate at 3% nationwide, the finance minister said on Friday.
The threshold price for companies in Peninsular Malaysia will be increased to 3,000 ringgit ($725) from 2,500 ringgit, minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz said in his budget speech to parliament.
The threshold for companies in Sabah and Sarawak, the largest palm oil producing states, will be increased to 3,500 ringgit from 3,000 ringgit, he saidin Sabah and Sarawak, the largest palm oil producing states, will be increased to 3,500 ringgit from 3,000 ringgit, he said companies in Sabah and Sarawak, the largest palm oil producing states, will be increased to 3,500 ringgit from 3,000 ringgit, he said
Let us do a breakdown
Next year Both Peninsular & East Malaysia Oil Palm Companies will get a windfall Levy of 3%
1) This will benefit Palm oil Companies with operation in Peninsula as 3% Levy remains but the Threshold has been Raised from Rm2,500 to Rm3,000
This is good news indeed. So in future if or should Cpo prices fall below Rm3,000 Peninsular will not be taxed like last time the cutoff limit was Rm2500 (Now is Rm3,000 - excellent Rm500 extra buffer)
For Sabah & Sarawak Levy threshold will now be raised from Rm3,000 to Rm3,500 (Tax increased from 1.5% to 3%) Got positive & negative
Positive = Like Peninsula It has now an Extra Rm500 tax free buffer from Rm3,000 to Rm3,500
Negative is the Extra 1.5% Tax if Cpo is above Rm3,500
But still very OK. You only pay as you earn. Not when you don't
To see CPO prices at Rm3,000 already VERY GOOD (Anything Above Rm3,000 is a Bonus) So To pay 1.5% more in bountiful years of Boom Time VERY OK
WHY ANALYSTS SO DUMB TO FORGET THERE IS EXTRA 97% SUPER PROFIT EVEN AFTER PAYING EXTRA 1.5% & ANOTHER USUAL 1.5% TAXES?
IF PALM OIL COMPANIES ARE MAKING 200% TO 300% MORE PROFITS WHY SELL WHEN TAX ONLY UP BY A MERE 1.5% AND THAT ONLY AFTER THRESHOLD IS RAISED BY RM500?
IN FACT THERE SHOULD SELL THE BANKS & IB BANKS AS RM100 MILLION & EXTRA 33% APPLIES TO THEIR PROFITS
PLUS EXTRA TAX FOR STOCK TRADING MIGHT PUT OFF RETAIL PLAYERS
SO IF WANT TO SELL THEN SELL THE BANKS BUT NOT OIL PALM AS IT IS NOW AT THE VERY OUTBREAK OF THE MOST POWERFUL EARNING YEARS YET AHEAD
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 37 of 37 comments
ah calvin...u have been yelling palm oil since 2017 till now...but still no show wor....how ar ?
2021-10-30 17:14
Smartly
In 2019 it was ogse
In 2020 was gloves
Now is palm oil
1. Ijmplant was Rm1. 86
Up 60% to Rm3. 20
2. Mhcplant was 58 sen after 4 sen dividend up 100%
3. Thplant, jtiasa and bplant all up 20%,to 30% from bottom and momentum will push more over Rm1. 00 soon
2021-10-30 17:42
smartly
open your EYES BIG BIG and see all the results of oil palm stocks just next month in Nov 2021
better still if you wait till Feb 2020 once a Century result of palm oil when cpo at uncharted territory of over Rm5,000 a ton
2021-10-30 18:05
correction
should be February 2022 will come Once a Century Super bull profits when Cpo crossed Rm5,000 a ton
2021-10-30 18:07
Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 30, 2021 6:05 PM | Report Abuse
smartly
open your EYES BIG BIG and see all the results of oil palm stocks just next month in Nov 2021
better still if you wait till Feb 2020 once a Century result of palm oil when cpo at uncharted territory of over Rm5,000 a ton
-----------------------------------------------------
ah calvin, i screen shot & open my eyes big big yah... ---> Nov2021
but this Feb 2020 u mentioned, how come go backward one ?
2021-10-30 18:10
hahaha smartly
that was a typo error
I posted correction
should be February 2022
2021-10-30 18:54
now will you chase tech stock with 5% profit to the sky and neglect palm oil making 200% profit ?
If you are a logical sane investor of course not
if you are gambling on prices moving up then you treat the stock market like a casino?
Investing is safe while gambling is not
2021-10-30 18:57
This calvintaneng treats i3investor blog the same way my neighbour's dog treats my flower bed. Pooped everywhere and walked away. This calvin posted a lot of nonsense and could not care less if he is right or wrong. I remember he painted a rosy picture of Maybulk with his charts and tables. Nothing panned out and he act bodoh, sudah lupa, poop and forget.
2021-10-31 14:02
Thanks for sharing, Calvin . I will check it out, so far aware of rise in CPO price, but have not really really check out the related counter. Today my homework , haha
2021-10-31 14:15
Want2MakeMoney Thanks for sharing, Calvin . I will check it out, so far aware of rise in CPO price, but have not really really check out the related counter. Today my homework , haha
31/10/2021 2:15 PM
You are welcome friend
Go for those with the largest Oil Palm acreage. Cpo over Rm5,000 will benefit those with most Upstream oil palm trees more than others
2021-10-31 14:47
Listen
Calvin is your good shepherd leading you to green pasture
The rest might lead you astray
Since Remisier King Peter Lim invested $10 Millions to become a $1.5 BILLIONAIRES
Robert Kuok became Malaysia Richest Man by Investing in Palm oil
When Palm oil was only Rm1,000 to Rm3,000. Now Palm oil CPO is at world record of over Rm5,400 there should be many more Successful Palm oil Millionaires if not Billionaires
Why People like Fitch, Malaysia's IB Bankers & others don't buy palm oil and also tell others not to buy palm oil
If they don't want then why bother to tell others palm oil no good?
Is it like Those Pharisees (Religious Teachers) of old forbidding people to enter the Kingdom of God while they themselves refuse to go in?
This is bad. To divert people from a very good thing
AMP
“But woe (judgment is coming) to you, [self-righteous] scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because you shut off the kingdom of heaven in front of people; for you do not enter yourselves, nor do you allow those who are [in the process of] entering to do so.
AMPC
CJB
“But woe to you hypocritical Torah-teachers and P’rushim! For you are shutting the Kingdom of Heaven in people’s faces, neither entering yourselves nor allowing those who wish to enter to do so.
CEV
You Pharisees and teachers of the Law of Moses are in for trouble! You’re nothing but show-offs. You lock people out of the kingdom of heaven. You won’t go in yourselves, and you keep others from going in.
DLNT
“But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because you are shutting the kingdom of the heavens in-front-of people. For you are not entering, nor are you permitting the ones entering to enter.
EHV
“But woe to you, experts in the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You shut the kingdom of heaven right in front of people’s faces. You yourselves do not enter, nor do you permit those who are trying to enter to do so.
EXB
“·How terrible for [L Woe to] you, ·teachers of the law [scribes] and Pharisees! You are hypocrites! [L Because] You ·close [shut; lock] the door for people to enter the kingdom of heaven. You yourselves don’t enter, and you ·stop [don’t allow] others who are trying to enter.
GNV
¶ Woe therefore be unto you, Scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because ye shut up the kingdom of heaven before men: for ye yourselves go not in, neither suffer ye them that would enter, to come in.
GW
“How horrible it will be for you, experts in Moses’ Teachings and Pharisees! You hypocrites! You lock people out of the kingdom of heaven. You don’t enter it yourselves, and you don’t permit others to enter when they try.
GNT
“How terrible for you, teachers of the Law and Pharisees! You hypocrites! You lock the door to the Kingdom of heaven in people's faces, but you yourselves don't go in, nor do you allow in those who are trying to enter!
HCSB
“But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! You lock up the kingdom of heaven from people. For you don’t go
2021-10-31 22:20
Palm oil stocks ... the super bull stocks !!!
Sapu kuat kuat for esi moni !!!!
2021-10-31 22:27
Great article... but Calvin i feel you should leave out religious preachings.. You have still not answered my question in layman language ...on why there is so much inequality in the world based on your religious world view..that assumes that God loves us all equally....and that we dont carry a baggage from our previous life..however but i must admit that i like your analysis here on plantation stocks..
2021-10-31 23:35
Outlook & Prospects
Palm oil commodity prices are expected to remain volatile in
the next financial year. Many factors affecting the prices are
to be closely monitored. The current low world vegetable
oil stocks will continue to provide the underlying support
to the prices. The recovery in stocks depend on the coming
production in the producing countries. Weather conditions are
one of the many factors to look out for, especially in the US, in
the coming crop progress.
The COVID-19 pandemic is still affecting demand in many
consuming countries and disrupting the production in
producing countries. The inoculation rates that are picking
momentum in many countries will help to mitigate some of the
challenges. Another factor to watch out for is the heightened
Business Performance Review 2021
inflationary risk in global economies. Central banks of many
countries are sounding more hawkish and this may lead to the
imposition of higher interest rates and the adoption of tighter
monetary policies in order to rein in the inflation. Having
integrated Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) into
our business, we are confident that our ESG investing will lead
us to overcome the rising interest cost.
Going forward, we opine that palm oil prices will remain strong
for some time due to lower inventories in both origin and
destination market. The palm oil stocks may take longer to
replenish to normal levels due to severe worker shortage in
Malaysia, disruption from the pandemic and the forecasted
La Nina phenomenon towards the end of 2021.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-14/la-nina-2021-arrive...
2021-10-31 23:52
KYY mentioned palm oil price will not sustain and hinted it will drop, asking readers to take appropriate action.
Humble opinion, if palm oil price drop, drop lar, it is cyclical. Does not matter, just stay invested.
2021-11-01 09:10
Thomas
Why not ask Kyy post an article saying steel price cannot sustain will drop?
2021-11-01 09:47
October did not crash as proposed by Robert Kiyosaki. He never made a right prediction. Idolising him can be a ...
Plantation sector will be worst hit by budget 2022.
2021-11-01 09:50
stockfreak
Not plantation as a whole
only those blue chip plantation with net income over Rm100 million will get taxed 9% more for surplus
this also apply to banks and other blue chip
Palm oil 2nd liners and 3rd liners with exposure to peninsular actually benefit from a higher threshold of Rm3000 before levy is applicable
As for East Malaysia the Levi is only 1.5% more but it had it's threshold raised by Rm500 to Rm3500
so in future if Cpo falls above Rm3000 to Rm3500 range it will be compensated by no levy as well
So see palm oil in the right perspective
Here is Spore I got bumitama shares which moved up from 45 sen to 46.5 sen today (up 1.5 sen) and in Indonesia they pay much much higher levy
So the sentiment is the cause of the negative sell down which is unwarranted as All palm oil now up from Rm2000 to Rm5400 or up by 170%
So what is the extra peanut 1.5% levy?
2021-11-01 10:07
Almost 4pm now
Top losers are Banking & Finance related: 5 out of 15 are Top losers or 30%
Palm oil only 3 out of 30 or just 10% are losers
So with all the negative news Palm oil is resilient
See
https://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/quotetopl.jsp
2021-11-01 15:58
Yes, it’s very close to $5,500! Incredible. Plantations are laughing to the bank again .
2022-01-21 17:40
BPLANT (High Dividend) ... get some n hold for high div, better than FD in the bank ?
2022-01-21 17:49
Buy b4 too late mah!
Very strong uptrend coming mah!
Posted by NorazmiAR > Jan 22, 2022 11:06 AM | Report Abuse
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cpo-futures-hits-new-high-indon...
The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives extended its rally to close at RM5,322 a tonne for the April contract.
Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics owner and co-founder Sathia Varqa said the price surged after the Indonesian government confirmed it will restrict palm oil exports.
Indonesia's foreign trade director-general Indrasari Wisnu Wardhana said Friday the republic will restrict exports to control the supply of domestic cooking oil in the country.
A media report said the restrictions will apply for six months starting Jan 24.
“(Based on) market players’ rumours, most likely the proposal will be 70% domestic supply and 30% export,” Sathia told Bernama.
Palm oil trader David Ng said Indonesia's move to curb palm oil exports will push up demand for Malaysian CPO as the big buyers will continue to search for alternative sources.
Posted by NorazmiAR > Jan 22, 2022 11:51 AM | Report Abuse
Why when palm oil price have reach new all time high but company share price still not moving up?? Other loss making or small profitable company can jump to all time high without much fundamental or news/MOU that may not even materialize. (WOODLANDOR,COMPLETE LOGISTIC, SMTrack)
Why operator want to goreng these unpromising stocks instead of palm oil company that already set in stone strong earning in coming Quarter results? Bursa really is a twisted environment for investment
2022-01-23 11:52
Just like gloves in the previous early inflexion point b4 it shoot up high high previously....now it is palmoil time mah!
Collect your palmoil stock now loh!
2022-01-23 12:50
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mabel
Brilliant Calvin
Mabel is with you on Plantation..
Meow
2021-10-30 17:08