THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

After coronavirus over might come another "black swan event called famine", Calvin Tan

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Publish date: Tue, 04 Jan 2022, 09:24 PM
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I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

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Coronavirus was a black swan event like The Spanish Flu. Happened before but long forgotten until it hit us in March 2020

See

History of 1918 Flu Pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919.  In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

Related Links

Omicron virus could be the end of Covid 19 just as the final phase of the Spanish flu was the most infectious but very mild - giving anti bodies for all that eventually ended the Spanish Flu after 3 years in 1920

 

Now there is another looming Black Swan event all forgotten in human history - "FAMINE"

 

See famine

 

Great Chinese Famine

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Great Chinese Famine
三年大饥荒
Country People's Republic of China
Location Half of the country. Death rate were highest in Anhui (18% dead), Chongqing (15%), Sichuan (13%), Guizhou (11%) and Hunan (8%).[1]
Period 1959–1961
Total deaths 15–55 million
Observations Considered China's most devastating catastrophe. Result of droughts, floods, the Great Leap Forwardpeople's commune and other policies.
Consequences Termination of the Great Leap Forward campaign

The Great Chinese Famine (Chinese三年大饥荒, "three years of great famine") was a period between 1959 and 1961 in the history of the People's Republic of China (PRC) characterized by widespread famine.[2][3][4][5][6] Some scholars have also included the years 1958 or 1962.[7][8][9][10] It is widely regarded as the deadliest famine and one of the greatest man-made disasters in human history, with an estimated death toll due to starvation that ranges in the tens of millions (15 to 55 million).[note 1] The most stricken provinces were Anhui (18% dead), Chongqing (15%), Sichuan (13%), Guizhou (11%) and Hunan (8%).[1]

The major contributing factors in the famine were the policies of the Great Leap Forward (1958 to 1962) and people's communes, such as inefficient distribution of food within the nation's planned economy, requiring the use of poor agricultural techniques, the Four Pests Campaign that reduced bird populations (which disrupted the ecosystem), over-reporting of grain production, and ordering millions of farmers to switch to iron and steel production.[4][6][8][15][17] During the Seven Thousand Cadres Conference in early 1962, Liu Shaoqi, the second Chairman of the PRC, formally attributed 30% of the famine to natural disasters and 70% to man-made errors ("三分天灾, 七分人祸").[8][18][19] After the launch of Reforms and Opening Up, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officially stated in June 1981 that the famine was mainly due to the mistakes of the Great Leap Forward as well as the Anti-Rightist Campaign, in addition to some natural disasters and the Sino-Soviet split.[2][3]

Terminology[edit]

Besides the name "Three Years of Great Famine" (simplified Chinese三年大饥荒traditional Chinese三年大饑荒pinyinSānnián dà jīhuāng), the famine has been known by many names.

The government of the People's Republic of China called it:[2][3][20][21]

Extent of the famine[edit]

Production drop[edit]

Policy changes affecting how farming was organized coincided with droughts and floods. As a result, year-over-year grain production fell dramatically in China. The harvest was down by 15% in 1959 compared to 1958, and by 1960, it was at 70% of its 1958 level.[22] Specifically, according to China's governmental data, crop production decreased from 200 million tons (or 400 billion jin) in 1958 to 170 million tons (or 340 billion jin) in 1959, and to 143.5 million tons (or 287 billion jin) in 1960.[23]

Death toll[edit]

The excess mortality associated with the famine has been estimated by various CCP officials and international experts, with most giving a number in the range of 15–55 million deaths. Some specific estimates include the following:

Some outlier estimates include 11 million by Utsa Patnaik, an Indian Marxist economist,[52][note 2] 3.66 million by Sun Jingxian (孙经先), a Chinese mathematician,[53] and 2.6–4 million by Yang Songlin (杨松林), a Chinese historian and political economist.[54]

 
Birth and death rate in China

Due to the lack of food and incentive to marry at that time, according to China's official statistics, China's population in 1961 was about 658,590,000, some 14,580,000 lower than in 1959.[55] The birth rate decreased from 2.922% (1958) to 2.086% (1960) and the death rate increased from 1.198% (1958) to 2.543% (1960), while the average numbers for 1962–1965 are about 4% and 1%, respectively.[55] The mortality in the birth and death rates both peaked in 1961 and began recovering rapidly after that, as shown on the chart of census data displayed on the left.[56][57] Lu Baoguo, a Xinhua reporter based in Xinyang, explained to Yang Jisheng why he never reported on his experience:[58]

In the second half of 1959, I took a long-distance bus from Xinyang to Luoshan and Gushi. Out of the window, I saw one corpse after another in the ditches. On the bus, no one dared to mention the dead. In one county, Guangshan, one-third of the people had died. Although there were dead people everywhere, the local leaders enjoyed good meals and fine liquor. ... I had seen people who had told the truth being destroyed. Did I dare to write it?

Yu Dehong, the secretary of a party official in Xinyang in 1959 and 1960, stated:[58]

I went to one village and saw 100 corpses, then another village and another 100 corpses. No one paid attention to them. People said that dogs were eating the bodies. Not true, I said. The dogs had long ago been eaten by the people.

Cannibalism[edit]

There are widespread oral reports, though little official documentation, of human cannibalism being practiced in various forms as a result of the famine.[59][60]: 352 [a][61] Due to the scale of the famine, some have speculated that the resulting cannibalism could be described as "on a scale unprecedented in the history of the 20th century".[59][60]

Causes of the famine[edit]

The Great Chinese Famine was caused by a combination of radical agricultural policies, social pressure, economic mismanagement, and natural disasters such as droughts and floods in farming regions.

Great Leap Forward[edit]

The Communist Party of China introduced drastic changes in farming policy during the Great Leap Forward, prohibiting private farm ownership.[46][62][63]

People's communes[edit]

 
The public dining hall (canteen) of a people's commune. The slogan on the wall reads "Eat Free, Work Hard".

During the Great Leap Forward, farming was organized into people's communes and the cultivation of privately owned plots was forbidden. The agricultural economy was centrally planned, and regional Party leaders were given production quotas for the communes under their control. Their output was then appropriated by the state and distributed at its discretion. In 2008, former deputy editor of Yanhuang Chunqiu and author Yang Jisheng would summarize his perspective of the effect of the production targets as an inability for supply to be redirected to where it was most demanded:

In Xinyang, people starved at the doors of the grain warehouses. As they died, they shouted, "Communist Party, Chairman Mao, save us". If the granaries of Henan and Hebei had been opened, no one need have died. As people were dying in large numbers around them, officials did not think to save them. Their only concern was how to fulfill the delivery of grain.[58]

The degree to which people's communes lessened or worsened the famine is controversial. Each region dealt with the famine differently, and timelines of the famine are not uniform across China. One argument is that excessive eating took place in the mess halls, and that this directly led to a worsening of the famine. If excessive eating had not taken place, one scholar argued, "the worst of the Great Leap Famine could still have been avoided in mid-1959".[64] However, dire hunger did not set in to places like Da Fo village until 1960,[65] and the public dining hall participation rate was found not to be a meaningful cause of famine in Anhui and Jiangxi.[66] In Da Fo village, "food output did not decline in reality, but there was an astonishing loss of food availability associated with Maoist state appropriation".[67]

Agricultural techniques[edit]

Along with collectivization, the central government decreed several changes in agricultural techniques that would be based on the ideas of later-discredited Russian agronomist Trofim Lysenko.[68] One of these ideas was close planting, whereby the density of seedlings was at first tripled and then doubled again. The theory was that plants of the same species would not compete with each other. In natural cycles they did fully compete, which actually stunted growth and resulted in lower yields.

Another policy known as "deep plowing" was based on the ideas of Lysenko's colleague Terentiy Maltsev, who encouraged peasants across China to eschew normal plowing depths of 15–20 centimeters and instead plow deeply into the soil (1 to 2 Chinese feet or 33 to 66 cm). The deep plowing theory stated that the most fertile soil was deep in the earth, and plowing unusually deeply would allow extra-strong root growth. While deep plowing can increase yields in some contexts, the policy is generally considered to have hindered yields in China.

Four Pests Campaign[edit]

 
The Eurasian tree sparrow was the most notable target of the Four Pests Campaign

In the Four Pests Campaign, citizens were called upon to destroy mosquitoes, rats, flies, and sparrows. The mass eradication of birds resulted in an increase of the population of crop-eating insects, which had no predators without the birds.

Illusion of superabundance[edit]

Beginning in 1957, the Chinese Communist Party began to report excessive production of grain because of pressure from superiors. However, the actual production of grain throughout China was decreasing from 1957 to 1961. For example:

  • In Sichuan Province, even though the collected grain was decreasing from 1958 to 1961, the numbers reported to the central government kept increasing.[69]
  • In Gansu, the grain yield declined by 4,273,000 tonnes from 1957 to 1961.[9]

This series of events resulted in an "illusion of superabundance" (浮夸风), and the Party believed that they had an excess of grain. On the contrary, the crop yields were lower than average. For instance, Beijing believed that "in 1960 state granaries would have 50 billion jin of grain", when they actually contained 12.7 billion jin.[70] The effects of the illusion of superabundance were significant, leaving some historians to argue that it was the major cause of much of the starvation throughout China. Yang Dali argued that there were three main consequences from the illusion of superabundance:[71]

First, it led to planners to shift lands from grain to economic crops, such as cotton, sugarcane, and beets, and divert huge numbers of agricultural laborers into industrial sectors, fueling state demand for procured grain from the countryside. Second, it prompted the Chinese leadership, especially Zhou Enlai, to speed up grain exports to secure more foreign currency to purchase capital goods needed for industrialization. Finally, the illusion of superabundance made the adoption of the commune mess halls seem rational at the time. All these changes, of course, contributed to the rapid exhaustion of grain supplies.

 

 

Great Famine (Ireland)

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Great Famine
An Gorta Mór / An Drochshaol
Skibbereen by James Mahony, 1847.JPG
Scene at Skibbereen during the Great Famine by Cork artist James Mahony, The Illustrated London News, 1847
Location Ireland
Period 1845–1852
Total deaths 1 million
Observations Policy failure, potato blight
Theory Corn LawsGregory clauseEncumbered Estates' CourtCrime and Outrage Bill (Ireland) 1847Young Irelander Rebellion of 1848Three Fs, Poor Law Amendment Act
Relief See below
Impact on demographics Population fell by 20–25% due to death and emigration
Consequences Permanent change in the country's demographic, political, and cultural landscape
Website See list of memorials to the Great Famine
Preceded by Irish Famine (1740–1741) (Bliain an Áir)
Succeeded by Irish Famine, 1879 (An Gorta Beag)

The Great Famine (Irishan Gorta Mór [ənˠ ˈɡɔɾˠt̪ˠə ˈmˠoːɾˠ]), also known as the Great Hunger, the Famine (mostly within Ireland) or the Irish Potato Famine (mostly outside Ireland),[1][2] was a period of mass starvation and disease in Ireland from 1845 to 1852.[3] With the most severely affected areas in the west and south of Ireland, where the Irish language was dominant, the period was contemporaneously known in Irish as an Drochshaol,[4] loosely translated as "the hard times" (or literally "the bad life"). The worst year of the period was 1847, known as "Black '47".[5][6] During the Great Hunger, about 1 million people died and more than a million fled the country,[7] causing the country's population to fall by 20–25%, in some towns falling as much as 67% between 1841 and 1851.[8][9][10] Between 1845 and 1855, no fewer than 2.1 million people left Ireland, primarily on packet ships but also steamboats and barks—one of the greatest mass exoduses from a single island in history.[11][12]

 
potato infected with late blight, showing typical rot symptoms

The proximate cause of the famine was a potato blight[13] which infected potato crops throughout Europe during the 1840s, causing an additional 100,000 deaths outside Ireland and influencing much of the unrest in the widespread European Revolutions of 1848.[14] From 1846, the impact of the blight was exacerbated by the British Whig government's economic policy of laissez-faire capitalism.[15][16] Longer-term causes include the system of absentee landlordism[17][18] and single-crop dependence.[19][20]

The famine was a watershed moment in the history of Ireland,[3] which was part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, whose capital was London, from 1801 to 1922. The famine and its effects permanently changed the island's demographic, political, and cultural landscape, producing an estimated 2 million refugees and spurring a century-long population decline.[21][22][23][24] For both the native Irish and those in the resulting diaspora, the famine entered folk memory.[25] The strained relations between many Irish and their ruling British government worsened further because of the famine, heightening ethnic and sectarian tensions and boosting nationalism and republicanism both in Ireland and among Irish emigrants around the world. English documentary maker John Percival said that the famine "became part of the long story of betrayal and exploitation which led to the growing movement in Ireland for independence." Scholar Kirby Miller makes the same point.[26][27] Debate exists regarding nomenclature for the event, whether to use the term "Famine", "Potato Famine" or "Great Hunger", the last of which some believe most accurately captures the complicated history of the period.[28]

The potato blight returned to Europe in 1879 but, by this time, the Land War (one of the largest agrarian movements to take place in 19th-century Europe) had begun in Ireland.[29] The movement, organized by the Land League, continued the political campaign for the Three Fs which was issued in 1850 by the Tenant Right League during the Great Famine. When the potato blight returned to Ireland in the 1879 famine, the League boycotted "notorious landlords" and its members physically blocked the evictions of farmers; the consequent reduction in homelessness and house demolition resulted in a drastic reduction in the number of deaths.[30]

Causes and contributing factors[edit]

Since the Acts of Union in January 1801, Ireland had been part of the United Kingdom. Executive power lay in the hands of the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland and Chief Secretary for Ireland, who were appointed by the British government. Ireland sent 105 members of parliament to the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, and Irish representative peers elected 28 of their own number to sit for life in the House of Lords. Between 1832 and 1859, 70% of Irish representatives were landowners or the sons of landowners.[31]

In the 40 years that followed the union, successive British governments grappled with the problems of governing a country which had, as Benjamin Disraeli stated in 1844, "a starving population, an absentee aristocracy, an alien established Protestant church, and in addition, the weakest executive in the world".[32] One historian calculated that, between 1801 and 1845, there had been 114 commissions and 61 special committees inquiring into the state of Ireland, and that "without exception their findings prophesied disaster; Ireland was on the verge of starvation, her population rapidly increasing, three-quarters of her labourers unemployed, housing conditions appalling and the standard of living unbelievably low".[33]

Lectures printed in 1847 by John HughesBishop of New York, are a contemporary exploration into the antecedent causes, particularly the political climate, in which the Irish famine occurred.[34][35]

Landlords and tenants[edit]

During the 18th century, the "middleman system" for managing landed property was introduced. Rent collection was left in the hands of the landlords' agents, or middlemen. This assured the landlord of a regular income, and relieved them of direct responsibility while leaving tenants open to exploitation by the middlemen.[36]

Catholics, the majority of whom lived in conditions of poverty and insecurity, made up 80% of the population. At the top of the "social pyramid" was the "ascendancy class", the English and Anglo-Irish families who owned most of the land and held more or less unchecked power over their tenants. Some of their estates were vast; for example, the Earl of Lucan owned more than 60,000 acres (240 km2). Many of these absentee landlords lived in England. The rent revenue—collected from "impoverished tenants" who were paid minimal wages to raise crops and livestock for export[17]—was mostly sent to England.[18]

In 1843, the British Government considered that the land question in Ireland was the root or foundational cause of disaffection in the country. They established a Royal Commission, chaired by the Earl of Devon, to enquire into the laws regarding the occupation of land. Daniel O'Connell described this commission as "perfectly one-sided", being composed of landlords, with no tenant representation.[37]

In February 1845, Devon reported:

It would be impossible adequately to describe the privations which they [the Irish labourer and his family] habitually and silently endure ... in many districts their only food is the potato, their only beverage water ... their cabins are seldom a protection against the weather ... a bed or a blanket is a rare luxury ... and nearly in all their pig and a manure heap constitute their only property.[38]

The Commissioners concluded they could not "forbear expressing our strong sense of the patient endurance which the labouring classes have exhibited under sufferings greater, we believe, than the people of any other country in Europe have to sustain".[38] The Commission stated that bad relations between landlord and tenant were principally responsible. There was no hereditary loyalty, feudal tie, or mitigating tradition of paternalism as existed in Britain, as the Anglo-Irish aristocracy that supplanted the Gaelic aristocracy in the 17th century was of a different religion and newer. In 1800, the 1st Earl of Clare observed of landlords that "confiscation is their common title".[39][40] According to the historian Cecil Woodham-Smith, landlords regarded the land as a source of income, from which as much as possible was to be extracted. With the peasantry "brooding over their discontent in sullen indignation" (in the words of the Earl of Clare), the landlords largely viewed the countryside as a hostile place in which to live. Some landlords visited their property only once or twice in a lifetime, if ever.[39] The rents from Ireland were generally spent elsewhere; an estimated £6,000,000 was remitted out of Ireland in 1842.[39][a]

The ability of middlemen was measured by the rent income they could contrive to extract from tenants.[36] They were described in evidence before the Commission as "land sharks", "bloodsuckers", and "the most oppressive species of tyrant that ever lent assistance to the destruction of a country".[36] The middlemen leased large tracts of land from the landlords on long leases with fixed rents, which they sublet as they saw fit. They would split a holding into smaller and smaller parcels so as to increase the amount of rent they could obtain. Tenants could be evicted for reasons such as non-payment of rents (which were high), or a landlord's decision to raise sheep instead of grain crops. A cottier paid his rent by working for the landlord.[41]

As any improvement made on a holding by a tenant became the property of the landlord when the lease expired or was terminated, the incentive to make improvements was limited. Most tenants had no security of tenure on the land; as tenants "at will", they could be turned out whenever the landlord chose. The only exception to this arrangement was in Ulster where, under a practice known as "tenant right", a tenant was compensated for any improvement they made to their holding. According to Woodham-Smith, the commission stated that "the superior prosperity and tranquillity of Ulster, compared with the rest of Ireland, were due to tenant right".[36]

Landlords in Ireland often used their powers without compunction, and tenants lived in dread of them. Woodham-Smith writes that, in these circumstances, "industry and enterprise were extinguished and a peasantry created which was one of the most destitute in Europe".[38]

Tenants and subdivisions[edit]

In 1845, 24% of all Irish tenant farms were of 0.4–2 hectares (1–5 acres) in size, while 40% were of 2–6 hectares (5–15 acres). Holdings were so small that no crop other than potatoes would suffice to feed a family. Shortly before the famine, the British government reported that poverty was so widespread that one-third of all Irish small holdings could not support the tenant families after rent was paid; the families survived only by earnings as seasonal migrant labour in England and Scotland.[42] Following the famine, reforms were implemented making it illegal to further divide land holdings.[43]

The 1841 census showed a population of just over eight million. Two-thirds of people depended on agriculture for their survival but rarely received a working wage. They had to work for their landlords in return for the patch of land they needed to grow enough food for their own families. This was the system that forced Ireland's peasantry into monoculture since only the potato could be grown in sufficient quantity to meet nutritional needs.[17]

Potato dependency[edit]

 
An Irish Peasant Family Discovering the Blight of their Store by Cork artist Daniel MacDonald, c. 1847

The potato was introduced to Ireland as a garden crop of the gentry. The potato was not popular at first; however, after an unusual promotion campaign that was supported by landowners and members of royalty, who wanted their tenants to plant and eat the crop, it rose in popularity.[44] By the late 17th century, it had become widespread as a supplementary rather than a principal food; the main diet was still based on butter, milk, and grain products. By 1800 to 1820, the potato had become a staple food of the poor, especially in winter.[19] Furthermore, a disproportionate share of the potatoes grown in Ireland were of a single variety, the Irish Lumper.[20]

With the expansion of the economy between 1760 and 1815, the potato was increasingly adopted by the people and became a staple year-round for farmers.[45] The widespread dependency on this single crop, and the lack of genetic variability among the potato plants in Ireland and Europe (a monoculture), were two of the reasons why the emergence of Phytophthora infestans had such devastating effects in Ireland and in similar areas of Europe.[46]

Potatoes were essential to the development of the cottier system; they supported an extremely cheap workforce, but at the cost of lower living standards. For the labourer, "a potato wage" shaped the expanding agrarian economy.[45]

The Celtic grazing lands of ... Ireland had been used to pasture cows for centuries. The British colonised ... the Irish, transforming much of their countryside into an extended grazing land to raise cattle for a hungry consumer market at home ... The British taste for beef had a devastating impact on the impoverished and disenfranchised people of ... Ireland ... pushed off the best pasture land and forced to farm smaller plots of marginal land, the Irish turned to the potato, a crop that could be grown abundantly in less favorable soil. Eventually, cows took over much of Ireland, leaving the native population virtually dependent on the potato for survival.[47]

The potato was also used extensively as a fodder crop for livestock immediately prior to the famine. Approximately 33% of production, amounting to 5,000,000 short tons (4,500,000 t), was normally used in this way.[48]

Blight in Ireland[edit]

 
Suggested paths of migration and diversification of P. infestans lineages HERB-1 and US-1

Prior to the arrival in Ireland of the disease Phytophthora infestans, commonly known as "blight", only two main potato plant diseases had been discovered.[49] One was called "dry rot" or "taint", and the other was a virus known popularly as "curl".[49][50] Phytophthora infestans is an oomycete (a variety of parasitic, non-photosynthetic organisms closely related to brown algae, and not a fungus).[51]

In 1851, the Census of Ireland Commissioners recorded 24 failures of the potato crop going back to 1728, of varying severity. General crop failures, through disease or frost, were recorded in 1739, 1740, 1770, 1800, and 1807. In 1821 and 1822, the potato crop failed in Munster and Connaught. In 1830 and 1831, MayoDonegal, and Galway suffered likewise. In 1832, 1833, 1834, and 1836, dry rot and curl caused serious losses, and in 1835 the potato failed in Ulster. Widespread failures throughout Ireland occurred in 1836, 1837, 1839, 1841, and 1844. According to Woodham-Smith, "the unreliability of the potato was an accepted fact in Ireland".[52]

How and when the blight Phytophthora infestans arrived in Europe is still uncertain; however, it almost certainly was not present prior to 1842, and probably arrived in 1844.[53] The origin of the pathogen has been traced to the Toluca Valley in Mexico,[54][55] whence it spread first within North America and then to Europe.[53] The 1845–46 blight was caused by the HERB-1 strain of the blight.[56][57]

 
Potato production during the Great Famine.[58] Note: years 1844, 1845, 1846, and 1848 are extrapolated.

In 1844, Irish newspapers carried reports concerning a disease that for two years had attacked the potato crops in America.[59] In 1843 and 1844, blight largely destroyed the potato crops in the Eastern United States. Ships from BaltimorePhiladelphia, or New York City could have carried diseased potatoes from these areas to European ports.[60] American plant pathologist William C. Paddock[61] posited that the blight was transported via potatoes being carried to feed passengers on clipper ships sailing from America to Ireland.[51] Once introduced in Ireland and Europe, blight spread rapidly. By mid-August 1845, it had reached much of northern and central Europe; Belgium, The Netherlands, northern France, and southern England had all already been affected.[62]

On 16 August 1845, The Gardeners' Chronicle and Horticultural Gazette reported "a blight of unusual character" on the Isle of Wight. A week later, on 23 August, it reported that "A fearful malady has broken out among the potato crop ... In Belgium the fields are said to be completely desolated. There is hardly a sound sample in Covent Garden market ... As for cure for this distemper, there is none."[63] These reports were extensively covered in Irish newspapers.[64] On 11 September, the Freeman's Journal reported on "the appearance of what is called 'cholera' in potatoes in Ireland, especially in the north".[65] On 13 September,[fn 1] The Gardeners' Chronicle announced: "We stop the Press with very great regret to announce that the potato Murrain has unequivocally declared itself in Ireland."[63]

Nevertheless, the British government remained optimistic over the next few weeks, as it received conflicting reports. Only when the crop was lifted (harvested) in October, did the scale of destruction become apparent.[66] Prime Minister Sir Robert Peel wrote to Sir James Graham in mid-October that he found the reports "very alarming", but reminded him that there was, according to Woodham-Smith, "always a tendency to exaggeration in Irish news".[67]

Crop loss in 1845 has been estimated at anywhere from one third[13] to as high as one half of cultivated acreage.[64] The Mansion House Committee in Dublin, to which hundreds of letters were directed from all over Ireland, claimed on 19 November 1845 to have ascertained beyond the shadow of a doubt that "considerably more than one-third of the entire of the potato crop ... has been already destroyed".[62]

In 1846, three-quarters of the harvest was lost to blight.[68] By December, a third of a million destitute people were employed in public works.[69] According to Cormac Ó Gráda, the first attack of potato blight caused considerable hardship in rural Ireland, from the autumn of 1846, when the first deaths from starvation were recorded.[70] Seed potatoes were scarce in 1847. Few had been sown, so, despite average yields, hunger continued. 1848 yields were only two-thirds of normal. Since over three million Irish people were totally dependent on potatoes for food, hunger and famine were inevitable.[68]

Reaction in Ireland[edit]

The Corporation of Dublin sent a memorial to the Queen, "praying her" to call Parliament together early (Parliament was at this time prorogued), and to recommend the requisition of some public money for public works, especially railways in Ireland. The Town Council of Belfast met and made similar suggestions, but neither body asked for charity, according to John Mitchel, one of the leading Repealers.[citation needed]

In early November 1845, a deputation from the citizens of Dublin, including the Duke of LeinsterLord Cloncurry, Daniel O'Connell and the Lord Mayor, went to the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland, Lord Heytesbury, to offer suggestions, such as opening the ports to foreign corn, stopping distillation from grain, prohibiting the export of foodstuffs, and providing employment through public works.[71] Lord Heytesbury urged them not to be alarmed, that they "were premature", that scientists were enquiring into all those matters,[fn 2] and that the Inspectors of Constabulary and Stipendiary Magistrates were charged with making constant reports from their districts; and there was no "immediate pressure on the market".[73][better source needed]

On 8 December 1845, Daniel O'Connell, head of the Repeal Association, proposed several remedies to the pending disaster. One of the first things he suggested was the introduction of "Tenant-Right" as practised in Ulster, giving the landlord a fair rent for his land, but giving the tenant compensation for any money he might have laid out on the land in permanent improvements.[74][better source needed] O'Connell noted actions taken by the Belgian legislature during the same season, as they had been hit by blight, too: shutting their ports against the export of provisions and opening them to imports. He suggested that, if Ireland had a domestic Parliament, the ports would be thrown open and the abundant crops raised in Ireland would be kept for the people of Ireland, as the Dublin parliament had done during the food shortages of the 1780s. O'Connell maintained that only an Irish parliament would provide both food and employment for the people. He said that repeal of the Act of Union was a necessity and Ireland's only hope.[74][better source needed]

Mitchel later wrote one of the first widely circulated tracts on the famine, The Last Conquest of Ireland (Perhaps), published in 1861. It established the widespread view that British actions during the famine and their treatment of the Irish was a deliberate effort to murder the Irish. It contained a sentence that has since become famous: "The Almighty, indeed, sent the potato blight, but the English created the Famine."[75] Mitchel was charged with sedition because of his writings, but this charge was dropped. He was convicted by a packed jury under the newly enacted Treason Felony Act and sentenced to 14 years transportation to Bermuda.[76]

According to Charles Gavan DuffyThe Nation insisted that the proper remedy, retaining in the country the food raised by her people until the people were fed,[77] was one which the rest of Europe had adopted, and one which even the parliaments of the Pale (i.e. before the union with Great Britain in 1801) had adopted in periods of distress.

Contemporaneously, as found in letters from the period and in particular later oral memory, the name for the event is in IrishAn Drochshaol, though with the earlier spelling standard of the era, which was Gaelic script, it is found written as in Droċ-Ṡaoġal.[78][79] In the modern era, this name, while loosely translated as "the hard-time", is always denoted with a capital letter to express its specific historic meaning.[80][5][81][82][83]

The period of the potato blight in Ireland from 1845 to 1851 was full of political confrontation.[84] A more radical Young Ireland group seceded from the Repeal movement in July 1846, and attempted an armed rebellion in 1848. It was unsuccessful.[85]

In 1847, William Smith O'Brien, leader of the Young Ireland party, became one of the founding members of the Irish Confederation[86] to campaign for a Repeal of the Act of Union, and called for the export of grain to be stopped and the ports closed.[87][better source needed] The following year, he helped organise the short-lived Young Irelander Rebellion of 1848 in County Tipperary.[88]

Government response[edit]

Government responses to previous food shortages[edit]

When Ireland had experienced food shortages in 1782–83, ports were closed to keep Irish-grown food in Ireland to feed the hungry. Irish food prices promptly dropped. Merchants lobbied against the export ban, but the government in the 1780s overrode their protests.[89] No such export ban happened in the 1840s.[90]

Tory government[edit]

Historian F. S. L. Lyons characterised the initial response of the British government to the early, less severe phase of the famine as "prompt and relatively successful".[91] Confronted by widespread crop failure in November 1845, the Prime Minister, Sir Robert Peel, purchased £100,000 worth of maize and cornmeal secretly from America[92] with Baring Brothers initially acting as his agents. The government hoped that they would not "stifle private enterprise" and that their actions would not act as a disincentive to local relief efforts. Due to poor weather conditions, the first shipment did not arrive in Ireland until the beginning of February 1846.[93] The initial shipments were of unground dried kernels, but the few Irish mills in operation were not equipped for milling maize and a long and complicated milling process had to be adopted before the meal could be distributed.[94] In addition, before the cornmeal could be consumed, it had to be "very much" cooked again, or eating it could result in severe bowel complaints.[93] Due to its yellow colour, and initial unpopularity, it became known as "Peel's brimstone".[95]

In October 1845, Peel moved to repeal the Corn Lawstariffs on grain which kept the price of bread high—but the issue split his party and he had insufficient support from his own colleagues to push the measure through. He resigned the premiership in December, but the opposition was unable to form a government and he was re-appointed.[96] In March, Peel set up a programme of public works in Ireland,[97] but the famine situation worsened during 1846, and the repeal of the Corn Laws in that year did little to help the starving Irish; the measure split the Conservative Party, leading to the fall of Peel's ministry.[98] On 25 June, the second reading of the government's Irish Coercion Bill was defeated by 73 votes in the House of Commons by a combination of WhigsRadicals, Irish Repealers, and protectionist Conservatives. Peel was forced to resign as prime minister on 29 June, and the Whig leader, Lord John Russell, became prime minister.[99]

Whig government[edit]

The measures undertaken by Peel's successor, Russell, proved inadequate as the crisis deepened. The new Whig administration, influenced by the doctrine of laissez-faire,[15] believed that the market would provide the food needed. They refused to interfere with the movement of food to England, then halted the previous government's food and relief works, leaving many hundreds of thousands of people without access to work, money, or food.[100] Russell's ministry introduced a new programme of public works that by the end of December 1846 employed some half million but proved impossible to administer.[101]

 
A memorial to the victims of the Doolough Tragedy (30 March 1849). To continue receiving relief, hundreds were instructed to travel many miles in bad weather. A large number died on the journey.

Charles Trevelyan, who was in charge of the administration of government relief, limited the Government's food aid programme because of a firm belief in laissez-faire.[102]

In January 1847, the government abandoned this policy, realising that it had failed, and turned to a mixture of "indoor" and "outdoor" direct relief; the former administered in workhouses through the Irish Poor Laws, the latter through soup kitchens. The costs of the Poor Law fell primarily on the local landlords, some of whom in turn attempted to reduce their liability by evicting their tenants.[101]

In June 1847 the Poor Law Amendment Act was passed which embodied the principle, popular in Britain, that Irish property must support Irish poverty. The landed proprietors in Ireland were held in Britain to have created the conditions that led to the famine.[103][104] However, it was asserted that the British parliament since the Act of Union of 1800 was partly to blame.[103] This point was raised in The Illustrated London News on 13 February 1847: "There was no law it would not pass at their request, and no abuse it would not defend for them." On 24 March, The Times reported that Britain had permitted in Ireland "a mass of poverty, disaffection, and degradation without a parallel in the world. It allowed proprietors to suck the very life-blood of that wretched race".[103]

The "Gregory clause" of the Poor Law, named after William H. Gregory, M.P.[fn 3], prohibited anyone who held at least 14 of an acre (0.1 ha) from receiving relief.[101] In practice, this meant that, if a farmer, having sold all his produce to pay rent and taxes, should be reduced, as many thousands of them were, to applying for public outdoor relief, he would not get it until he had first delivered up all his land to the landlord. Of this Law, Mitchel wrote that "it is the able-bodied idler only who is to be fed—if he attempted to till but one rood of ground, he dies". This simple method of ejectment was called "passing paupers through the workhouse"—a man went in, a pauper came out.[106][better source needed] These factors combined to drive thousands of people off the land: 90,000 in 1849, and 104,000 in 1850.[101]

In 1849 the Encumbered Estates Act allowed landlord estates to be auctioned off upon the petition of creditors. Estates with debts were then auctioned off at low prices. Wealthy British speculators purchased the lands and "took a harsh view" of the tenant farmers who continued renting. The rents were raised and tenants evicted to create large cattle grazing pastures. Between 1849 and 1854, some 50,000 families were evicted.[107][108]

Food exports[edit]

 
Rioters in Dungarvan attempt to break into a bakery; the poor could not afford to buy what food was available. (The Pictorial Times, 1846).

Many Irish people, notably Mitchel, believed that Ireland continued to produce sufficient food to feed its population during the famine, and starvation resulted from exports. According to historian James Donnelly, "the picture of Irish people starving as food was exported was the most powerful image in the nationalist construct of the Famine".[109] However, according to statistics, food imports exceeded exports during the famine. Though grain imports only really became significant after the spring of 1847 and much of the debate "has been conducted within narrow parameters," focusing "almost exclusively on national estimates with little attempt to disaggregate the data by region or by product."[110] The amount of food exported in late 1846 was only one-tenth the amount of potato harvest lost to blight.[109]

The historian Cecil Woodham-Smith wrote in The Great Hunger: Ireland 1845–1849 that no issue has provoked so much anger and embittered relations between England and Ireland "as the indisputable fact that huge quantities of food were exported from Ireland to England throughout the period when the people of Ireland were dying of starvation".[111] While in addition to the maize imports, four times as much wheat was imported into Ireland at the height of the famine as exported, much of the imported wheat was used as livestock feed.[112][113] Woodham-Smith added that provision via the Poor law union workhouses by the Act of 1838 had to be paid by rates levied on the local property owners, and in areas where the famine was worst, the tenants could not pay their rents to enable landlords to fund the rates and therefore the workhouses. Only by selling food, some of which would inevitably be exported, could a "virtuous circle" be created whereby the rents and rates would be paid, and the workhouses funded. Relief through the workhouse system was simply overwhelmed by the enormous scale and duration of the famine.[114] Nicolas McEvoy, parish priest of Kells, wrote in October 1845:

On my most minute personal inspection of the potato crop in this most fertile potato-growing locale is founded my inexpressibly painful conviction that one family in twenty of the people will not have a single potato left on Christmas day next. Many are the fields I have examined and testimony the most solemn can I tender, that in the great bulk of those fields all the potatoes sizable enough to be sent to table are irreparably damaged, while for the remaining comparatively sounder fields very little hopes are entertained in consequence of the daily rapid development of the deplorable disease.

With starvation at our doors, grimly staring us, vessels laden with our sole hopes of existence, our provisions, are hourly wafted from our every port. From one milling establishment I have last night seen not less than fifty dray loads of meal moving on to Drogheda, thence to go to feed the foreigner, leaving starvation and death the sure and certain fate of the toil and sweat that raised this food.

For their respective inhabitants England, Holland, Scotland, Germany, are taking early the necessary precautions—getting provisions from every possible part of the globe; and I ask are Irishmen alone unworthy the sympathies of a paternal gentry or a paternal Government?

Let Irishmen themselves take heed before the provisions are gone. Let those, too, who have sheep, and oxen, and haggards. Self-preservation is the first law of nature. The right of the starving to try and sustain existence is a right far and away paramount to every right that property confers.

Infinitely more precious in the eyes of reason ‑ in the adorable eye of the Omnipotent Creator, is the life of the last and least of human beings than the whole united property of the entire universe. The appalling character of the crisis renders delicacy but criminal and imperatively calls for the timely and explicit notice of principles that will not fail to prove terrible arms in the hands of a neglected, abandoned starving people.[115]

In the 5 May 2020, issue of the Dublin Review of Books, Editor Maurice Earls wrote:

Dr. McEvoy, in his grim forebodings and apocalyptic fear, was closer to the truth than the sanguine rationalists quoted in the newspapers, but McEvoy, like many others, overestimated the likelihood of mass rebellion, and even this great clerical friend of the poor could hardly have contemplated the depth of social, economic and cultural destruction which would persist and deepen over the following century and beyond. It was politics that turned a disease of potatoes and tomatoes into famine, and it was politics which ensured its disastrous aftereffects would disfigure numerous future generations.[116]

Charity[edit]

 
Scene at the gate of the workhouse, c. 1846
 
An 1849 depiction of Bridget O'Donnell and her two children during the famine

William Smith O'Brien—speaking on the subject of charity in a speech to the Repeal Association in February 1845—applauded the fact that the universal sentiment on the subject of charity was that they would accept no English charity. He expressed the view that the resources of Ireland were still abundantly adequate to maintain the population, and that, until those resources had been utterly exhausted, he hoped that there was no one in "Ireland who will so degrade himself as to ask the aid of a subscription from England".[73][better source needed] Similarly, Mitchel wrote in his The Last Conquest of Ireland (Perhaps), on the same subject, that no one from Ireland ever asked for charity during this period, and that it was England who sought charity on Ireland's behalf, and, having received it, was also responsible for administering it. He suggested that it has been carefully inculcated by the British Press "that the moment Ireland fell into distress, she became an abject beggar at England's gate, and that she even craved alms from all mankind". He further suggested that in Ireland no one ever asked alms or favours of any kind from England or any other nation, but that it was England herself that begged for Ireland. He also claimed that it was England that "sent 'round the hat over all the globe, asking a penny for the love of God to relieve the poor Irish", and, constituting herself the agent of all that charity, took all the profit of it.[74][better source needed] Such expressions of national pride coincide with a general notion in Ireland at the time to be entitled to government relief and with some individuals and committees from Ireland going on fundraising missions to England.[citation needed]

Large sums of money were donated by charities; the first foreign campaign in December 1845 included the Boston Repeal Association and the Catholic Church[117] Calcutta is credited with making the first larger donations in 1846, summing up to around £14,000.[b] The money raised included contributions by Irish soldiers serving there and Irish people employed by the East India Company.[118] Russian Tsar Alexander II sent funds and Queen Victoria donated £2,000.[c] According to legend,[119][120][121] Sultan Abdülmecid I of the Ottoman Empire originally offered to send £10,000 but was asked either by British diplomats or his own ministers to reduce it to £1,000 to avoid donating more than the Queen.[122] U.S. President James K. Polk donated $50 and in 1847 Congressman Abraham Lincoln donated $10 ($307 in 2019 value[123]).[124] Pope Pius IX also made a personal contribution of 1,000 Scudi (approximately £213) for famine relief in Ireland and authorized collections in Rome. Most significantly, on 25 March 1847 Pius IX issued the encyclical Praedecessores nostros, which called the whole Catholic world to contribute moneywise and spiritually to Irish relief. Major figures behind international Catholic fundraising for Ireland were the rector of the Pontifical Irish College, Paul Cullen, and the President of the Society of Saint Vincent de Paul, Jules Gossin.[125]

International fundraising activities received donations from locations as diverse as Venezuela, Australia, South Africa, Mexico, Russia and Italy.[126] In addition to the religious, non-religious organisations came to the assistance of famine victims. The British Relief Association was one such group. Founded on 1 January 1847 by Lionel de RothschildAbel Smith, and other prominent bankers and aristocrats, the Association raised money throughout England, America, and Australia; their funding drive was benefited by a "Queen's Letter", a letter from Queen Victoria appealing for money to relieve the distress in Ireland.[127] With this initial letter, the Association raised £171,533.[d] A second, somewhat less successful "Queen's Letter" was issued in late 1847.[127] In total, the Association raised approximately £390,000 for Irish relief.[128][e]

Private initiatives such as the Central Relief Committee of the Society of Friends (Quakers) attempted to fill the gap caused by the end of government relief, and eventually, the government reinstated the relief works, although bureaucracy slowed the release of food supplies.[129] Thousands of dollars were raised in the United States, including $170 ($5,218 in 2019 value[130]) collected from a group of Native American Choctaws in 1847.[131] Judy Allen, editor of the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma's newspaper Biskinik, wrote that "It had been just 16 years since the Choctaw people had experienced the Trail of Tears, and they had faced starvation ... It was an amazing gesture." To mark the 150th anniversary, eight Irish people retraced the Trail of Tears,[132] and the donation was publicly commemorated by President Mary Robinson.[citation needed]

Contributions by the United States during the famine were highlighted by Senator Henry Clay who said; "No imagination can conceive—no tongue express—no brush paint—the horrors of the scenes which are daily exhibited in Ireland." He called upon Americans to remind them that the practice of charity was the greatest act of humanity they could do. In total, 118 vessels sailed from the US to Ireland with relief goods valued at $545,145.[133][f] Specific states which provided aid include South Carolina and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania was the second most important state for famine relief in the US and the second-largest shipping port for aid to Ireland. The state hosted the Philadelphia Irish Famine Relief Committee. Catholics, Methodists, Quakers, Presbyterians, Episcopalians, Lutherans, Moravian and Jewish groups put aside their differences in the name of humanity to help out the Irish.[134] South Carolina rallied around the efforts to help those experiencing the famine. They raised donations of money, food and clothing to help the victims of the famine—Irish immigrants made up 39% of the white population in the southern cities. Historian Harvey Strum claims that "The states ignored all their racial, religious, and political differences to support the cause for relief."[135]

The total sum of voluntary contributions for famine relief in Ireland can be estimated at £1.5 million (the real price equivalent of £135 million in 2018), of which less than £1 million came from abroad.[136]

Eviction[edit]

 
Lord Palmerston, then British Foreign Secretary, evicted some 2,000 of his tenants.
 
George Bingham, 3rd Earl of Lucan

Landlords were responsible for paying the rates of every tenant whose yearly rent was £4 or less. Landlords whose land was crowded with poorer tenants were now faced with large bills. Many began clearing the poor tenants from their small plots and letting the land in larger plots for over £4 which then reduced their debts. In 1846, there had been some clearances, but the great mass of evictions came in 1847.[137] According to James S. Donnelly Jr., it is impossible to be sure how many people were evicted during the years of the famine and its immediate aftermath. It was only in 1849 that the police began to keep a count, and they recorded a total of almost 250,000 persons as officially evicted between 1849 and 1854.[138]

Donnelly considered this to be an underestimate, and if the figures were to include the number pressured into "voluntary" surrenders during the whole period (1846–1854), the figure would almost certainly exceed half a million persons.[139] While Helen Litton says there were also thousands of "voluntary" surrenders, she notes also that there was "precious little voluntary about them". In some cases, tenants were persuaded to accept a small sum of money to leave their homes, "cheated into believing the workhouse would take them in".[137]

West Clare was one of the worst areas for evictions, where landlords turned thousands of families out and demolished their derisory cabins. Captain Kennedy in April 1848 estimated that 1,000 houses, with an average of six people to each, had been levelled since November.[140] The Mahon family of Strokestown House evicted 3,000 people in 1847 and were still able to dine on lobster soup.[141]

After Clare, the worst area for evictions was County Mayo, accounting for 10% of all evictions between 1849 and 1854. George Bingham, 3rd Earl of Lucan, who owned over 60,000 acres (240 km2), was among the worst evicting landlords. He was quoted as saying that "he would not breed paupers to pay priests". Having turned out in the parish of Ballinrobe over 2,000 tenants alone, he then used the cleared land as grazing farms.[142] In 1848, the Marquis of Sligo owed £1,650 to Westport Union; he was also an evicting landlord, though he claimed to be selective, saying that he was only getting rid of the idle and dishonest. Altogether, he cleared about 25% of his tenants.[143]

In 1847, Bishop of MeathThomas Nulty, described his personal recollection of the evictions in a pastoral letter to his clergy:

Seven hundred human beings were driven from their homes in one day and set adrift on the world, to gratify the caprice of one who, before God and man, probably deserved less consideration than the last and least of them ... The horrid scenes I then witnessed, I must remember all my life long. The wailing of women—the screams, the terror, the consternation of children—the speechless agony of honest industrious men—wrung tears of grief from all who saw them. I saw officers and men of a large police force, who were obliged to attend on the occasion, cry like children at beholding the cruel sufferings of the very people whom they would be obliged to butcher had they offered the least resistance. The landed proprietors in a circle all around—and for many miles in every direction—warned their tenantry, with threats of their direct vengeance, against the humanity of extending to any of them the hospitality of a single night's shelter ... and in little more than three years, nearly a fourth of them lay quietly in their graves.[144]

The population in Drumbaragh, a townland in County Meath, plummeted 67 per cent between 1841 and 1851; in neighbouring Springville, it fell 54 per cent. There were fifty houses in Springville in 1841 and only eleven left in 1871.[145][10]

According to Litton, evictions might have taken place earlier but for fear of the secret societies. However, they were now greatly weakened by the Famine. Revenge still occasionally took place, with seven landlords being shot, six fatally, during the autumn and winter of 1847. Ten other occupiers of land, though without tenants, were also murdered, she says.[146]

One such landlord reprisal occurred in West Roscommon. The "notorious" Major Denis Mahon enforced thousands of his tenants into eviction before the end of 1847, with an estimated 60 per cent decline in population in some parishes. He was shot dead in that year.[147] In East Roscommon, "where conditions were more benign", the estimated decline in population was under 10 percent.[147]

Lord Clarendon, alarmed at the number of landlords being shot and that this might mean rebellion, asked for special powers. Lord John Russell was not sympathetic to this appeal. Lord Clarendon believed that the landlords themselves were mostly responsible for the tragedy in the first place, saying that "It is quite true that landlords in England would not like to be shot like hares and partridges ... but neither does any landlord in England turn out fifty persons at once and burn their houses over their heads, giving them no provision for the future." The Crime and Outrage Act was passed in December 1847 as a compromise, and additional troops were sent to Ireland.[148]

The "Gregory clause", described by Donnelly as a "vicious amendment to the Irish poor law", had been a successful Tory amendment to the Whig poor-relief bill which became law in early June 1847, where its potential as an estate-clearing device was widely recognised in parliament, although not in advance.[105] At first, the poor law commissioners and inspectors viewed the clause as a valuable instrument for a more cost-effective administration of public relief, but the drawbacks soon became apparent, even from an administrative perspective. They would soon view them as little more than murderous from a humanitarian perspective. According to Donnelly, it became obvious that the quarter-acre clause was "indirectly a death-dealing instrument".[149]

Emigration[edit]

 
The Emigrants' Farewell, engraving by Henry Doyle (1827–1893), from Mary Frances Cusack's Illustrated History of Ireland, 1868

At least a million people are thought to have emigrated as a result of the famine.[7] There were about 1 million long-distance emigrants between 1846 and 1851, mainly to North America. The total given in the 1851 census is 967,908.[150] Short-distance emigrants, mainly to Britain, may have numbered 200,000 or more.[151]

While the famine was responsible for a significant increase in emigration from Ireland, of anywhere from 45% to nearly 85% depending on the year and the county, it was not the sole cause. The beginning of mass emigration from Ireland can be traced to the mid-18th century, when some 250,000 people left Ireland over a period of 50 years to settle in the New World. Irish economist Cormac Ó Gráda estimates that between 1 million and 1.5 million people emigrated during the 30 years between 1815 (when Napoleon was defeated in Waterloo) and 1845 (when the Great Famine began).[152] However, during the worst of the famine, emigration reached somewhere around 250,000 in one year alone, with western Ireland seeing the most emigrants.[153]

Families did not migrate en masse, but younger members of families did, so much so that emigration almost became a rite of passage, as evidenced by the data that show that, unlike similar emigrations throughout world history, women emigrated just as often, just as early, and in the same numbers as men. The emigrants would send remittances (reaching a total of £1,404,000 by 1851) back to family in Ireland, which, in turn, allowed another member of their family to leave.[154]

Emigration during the famine years of 1845–1850 was primarily to England, Scotland, South Wales, North America, and Australia. Many of those fleeing to the Americas used the McCorkell Line.[155] One city that experienced a particularly strong influx of Irish immigrants was Liverpool, with at least one-quarter of the city's population being Irish-born by 1851.[156] This would heavily influence the city's identity and culture in the coming years, earning it the nickname of "Ireland's second capital".[157] Liverpool became the only place outside of Ireland to elect an Irish nationalist to parliament when it elected T. P. O'Connor in 1885, and continuously re-elected him unopposed until his death in 1929.[158] As of 2020, it is estimated that three quarters of people from the city have Irish ancestry.[159]

 
United States map showing Irish population, 1880

Of the more than 100,000 Irish that sailed to Canada in 1847, an estimated one out of five died from disease and malnutrition, including over 5,000 at Grosse Isle, Quebec, an island in the Saint Lawrence River used to quarantine ships near Quebec City.[160] Overcrowded, poorly maintained, and badly provisioned vessels known as coffin ships sailed from small, unregulated harbours in the West of Ireland in contravention of British safety requirements, and mortality rates were high.[161] The 1851 census reported that more than half the inhabitants of Toronto were Irish, and, in 1847 alone, 38,000 Irish flooded a city with fewer than 20,000 citizens. Other Canadian cities such as Quebec City, MontrealOttawaKingstonHamilton, and Saint John also received large numbers. By 1871, 55% of Saint John residents were Irish natives or children of Irish-born parents.[162] Unlike the United States, Canada could not close its ports to Irish ships because it was part of the British Empire, so emigrants could obtain cheap passage (evicted tenants received free passage) in returning empty lumber holds. However, fearing nationalist insurgencies, the British government placed harsh restrictions on Irish immigration to Canada after 1847, resulting in larger influxes to the United States.[citation needed]

In America, most Irish became city-dwellers; with little money, many had to settle in the cities that the ships they came on landed in.[163] By 1850, the Irish made up a quarter of the population in Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. In addition, Irish populations became prevalent in some American mining communities.[citation needed]

The famine marked the beginning of the depopulation of Ireland in the 19th century. The population had increased by 13–14% in the first three decades of the 19th century; between 1831 and 1841, the population grew by 5%. Application of Thomas Malthus's idea of population expanding geometrically while resources increase arithmetically was popular during the famines of 1817 and 1822. By the 1830s, they were seen as overly simplistic, and Ireland's problems were seen "less as an excess of population than as a lack of capital investment".[164] The population of Ireland was increasing no faster than that of England, which suffered no equivalent catastrophe. By 1854, between 1.5 and 2 million Irish left their country due to evictions, starvation, and harsh living conditions.[165]

Death toll[edit]

Ireland population change 1841 1851.png
 

It is not known exactly how many people died during the period of the famine, although it is believed that more died from disease than from starvation.[166] State registration of births, marriages, or deaths had not yet begun, and records kept by the Catholic Church are incomplete.[fn 4] One possible estimate has been reached by comparing the expected population with the eventual numbers in the 1850s. A census taken in 1841 recorded a population of 8,175,124. A census immediately after the famine in 1851 counted 6,552,385, a drop of over 1.5 million in 10 years. The census commissioners estimated that, at the normal rate of population increase, the population in 1851 should have grown to just over 9 million if the famine had not occurred.[168]

On the in-development Great Irish Famine Online resource, produced by the Geography department of University College Cork, the population of Ireland section states, that together with the census figures being called low, before the famine it reads that "it is now generally believed" that over 8.75 million people populated the island of Ireland prior to it striking.[169]

In 1851, the census commissioners collected information on the number who died in each family since 1841, and the cause, season, and year of death. They recorded 21,770 total deaths from starvation in the previous decade and 400,720 deaths from disease. Listed diseases were feverdiphtheriadysenterycholerasmallpox, and influenza, with the first two being the main killers (222,021 and 93,232). The commissioners acknowledged that their figures were incomplete and that the true number of deaths was probably higher:

The greater the amount of destitution of mortality ... the less will be the amount of recorded deaths derived through any household form;—for not only were whole families swept away by disease ... but whole villages were effaced from off the land.

Later historians agree that the 1851 death tables "were flawed and probably under-estimated the level of mortality".[170][171] The combination of institutional and figures provided by individuals gives "an incomplete and biased count" of fatalities during the famine.[172] Cormac Ó Gráda, referencing the work of W. A. MacArthur,[173] writes that specialists have long known that the Irish death tables were inaccurate,[174] and undercounted the number of deaths.[175]

S. H. Cousens's estimate of 800,000 deaths relied heavily on retrospective information contained in the 1851 census and elsewhere,[176] and is now regarded as too low.[177][178] Modern historian Joseph Lee says "at least 800,000",[179] and R. F. Foster estimates that "at least 775,000 died, mostly through disease, including cholera in the latter stages of the holocaust". He further notes that "a recent sophisticated computation estimates excess deaths from 1846 to 1851 as between 1,000,000 and 1,500,000 ... after a careful critique of this, other statisticians arrive at a figure of 1,000,000".[fn 5]

Joel Mokyr's estimates at an aggregated county level range from 1.1 million to 1.5 million deaths between 1846 and 1851. Mokyr produced two sets of data which contained an upper-bound and lower-bound estimate, which showed not much difference in regional patterns.[181][177] The true figure is likely to lie between the two extremes of half and one and a half million, and the most widely accepted estimate is one million.[182][183]

Decline in population 1841–51 (%)[184]
Leinster Munster Ulster Connacht Ireland
15.3 22.5 15.7 28.8 20

Detailed statistics of the population of Ireland since 1841 are available at Irish population analysis.

 
Political cartoon from the 1880s: "In forty years I have lost, through the operation of no natural law, more than Three Million of my Sons and Daughters, and they, the Young and the Strong, leaving behind the Old and Infirm to weep and to die. Where is this to end?"

Another area of uncertainty lies in the descriptions of disease given by tenants as to the cause of their relatives' deaths.[177] Though the 1851 census has been rightly criticised as underestimating the true extent of mortality, it does provide a framework for the medical history of the Great Famine. The diseases that badly affected the population fell into two categories:[185] famine-induced diseases and diseases of nutritional deficiency. Of the nutritional deficiency diseases, the most commonly experienced were starvation and marasmus, as well as a condition at the time called dropsy. Dropsy (oedema) was a popular name given for the symptoms of several diseases, one of which, kwashiorkor, is associated with starvation.[185]

However, the greatest mortality was not from nutritional deficiency diseases, but from famine-induced ailments.[185][186] The malnourished are very vulnerable to infections; therefore, these were more severe when they occurred. Measlesdiphtheriadiarrhoeatuberculosis, most respiratory infectionswhooping cough, many intestinal parasites, and cholera were all strongly conditioned by nutritional status. Potentially lethal diseases, such as smallpox and influenza, were so virulent that their spread was independent of nutrition. The best example of this phenomenon was fever, which exacted the greatest death toll. In the popular mind, as well as medical opinion, fever and famine were closely related.[187] Social dislocation—the congregation of the hungry at soup kitchens, food depots, and overcrowded work houses—created conditions that were ideal for spreading infectious diseases such as typhustyphoid, and relapsing fever.[186] [185]

Diarrhoeal diseases were the result of poor hygiene, bad sanitation, and dietary changes. The concluding attack on a population incapacitated by famine was delivered by Asiatic cholera, which had visited Ireland briefly in the 1830s. In the following decade, it spread uncontrollably across Asia, through Europe, and into Britain, finally reaching Ireland in 1849.[185] Some scholars estimate that the population of Ireland was reduced by 20–25%.[8]

After the famine[edit]

Ireland's mean age of marriage in 1830 was 23.8 for women and 27.5 for men, where they had once been 21 for women and 25 for men, and those who never married numbered about 10% of the population;[188] in 1840, they had respectively risen to 24.4 and 27.7.[189][190] In the decades after the Famine, the age of marriage had risen to 28–29 for women and 33 for men, and as many as a third of Irishmen and a quarter of Irishwomen never married, due to low wages and chronic economic problems that discouraged early and universal marriage.[191]

One consequence of the increase in the number of orphaned children was that some young women turned to prostitution to provide for themselves.[192] Some of the women who became Wrens of the Curragh were famine orphans.[193]

The potato blight would return to Ireland in 1879, though by then the rural cottier tenant farmers and labourers of Ireland had begun the "Land War", described as one of the largest agrarian movements to take place in nineteenth-century Europe.[29]

By the time the potato blight returned in 1879, The Land League, which was led by Michael Davitt, who was born during the Great Famine and whose family had been evicted when Davitt was only 4 years old, encouraged the mass boycott of "notorious landlords" with some members also physically blocking evictions. The policy, however, would soon be suppressed. Despite close to 1000 interned under the 1881 Coercion Act for suspected membership. With the reduction in the rate of homelessness and the increased physical and political networks eroding the landlordism system, the severity of the following shorter famine would be limited.[30]

According to the linguist Erick Falc'her-Poyroux, surprisingly, for a country renowned for its rich musical heritage, only a small number of folk songs can be traced back to the demographic and cultural catastrophe brought about by the Great Famine, and he infers from this that the subject was generally avoided for decades among poorer people as it brought back too many sorrowful memories. Also, large areas of the country became uninhabited and the folk song collectors of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries did not collect the songs they heard in the Irish language, as the language of the peasantry was often regarded as dead, or "not delicate enough for educated ears". Of the songs that have survived probably the best known is Skibbereen. Emigration has been an important source of inspiration for songs of the Irish during the 20th century.[144]

Analysis of the government's role[edit]

Contemporary analysis[edit]

Contemporary opinion was sharply critical of the Russell government's response to and management of the crisis. From the start, there were accusations that the government failed to grasp the magnitude of the disaster. Sir James Graham, who had served as Home Secretary in Sir Robert Peel's late government, wrote to Peel that, in his opinion, "the real extent and magnitude of the Irish difficulty are underestimated by the Government, and cannot be met by measures within the strict rule of economical science".[194]

This criticism was not confined to outside critics. The Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland, Lord Clarendon, wrote a letter to Russell on 26 April 1849, urging that the government propose additional relief measures: "I don't think there is another legislature in Europe that would disregard such suffering as now exists in the west of Ireland, or coldly persist in a policy of extermination."[195] Also in 1849, the Chief Poor Law Commissioner, Edward Twisleton, resigned in protest over the Rate-in-Aid Act, which provided additional funds for the Poor Law through a 6d in the pound levy on all rateable properties in Ireland.[196] Twisleton testified that "comparatively trifling sums were required for Britain to spare itself the deep disgrace of permitting its miserable fellow-subjects to die of starvation". According to Peter Gray in his book The Irish Famine, the government spent £7 million for relief in Ireland between 1845 and 1850, "representing less than half of one percent of the British gross national product over five years. Contemporaries noted the sharp contrast with the £20 million compensation given to West Indian slave-owners in the 1830s."[164]

Other critics maintained that, even after the government recognised the scope of the crisis, it failed to take sufficient steps to address it. John Mitchel, one of the leaders of the Young Ireland Movement, wrote in 1860:

I have called it an artificial famine: that is to say, it was a famine which desolated a rich and fertile island that produced every year abundance and superabundance to sustain all her people and many more. The English, indeed, call the famine a "dispensation of Providence"; and ascribe it entirely to the blight on potatoes. But potatoes failed in like manner all over Europe; yet there was no famine save in Ireland. The British account of the matter, then, is first, a fraud; second, a blasphemy. The Almighty, indeed, sent the potato blight, but the English created the famine.[197]

Still other critics saw reflected in the government's response its attitude to the so-called "Irish Question". Nassau Senior, an economics professor at Oxford University, wrote that the Famine "would not kill more than one million people, and that would scarcely be enough to do any good".[197] In 1848, Denis Shine Lawlor suggested that Russell was a student of the Elizabethan poet Edmund Spenser, who had calculated "how far English colonisation and English policy might be most effectively carried out by Irish starvation".[198] Charles Trevelyan, the civil servant with most direct responsibility for the government's handling of the famine, described it in 1848 as "a direct stroke of an all-wise and all-merciful Providence", which laid bare "the deep and inveterate root of social evil"; he affirmed that the Famine was "the sharp but effectual remedy by which the cure is likely to be effected. God grant that the generation to which this opportunity has been offered may rightly perform its part..."[199]

Historical analysis[edit]

Christine Kinealy has written that "the major tragedy of the Irish Famine of 1845–52 marked a watershed in modern Irish history. Its occurrence, however, was neither inevitable nor unavoidable".[3] The underlying factors which combined to cause the famine were aggravated by an inadequate government response. Kinealy notes that the "government had to do something to help alleviate the suffering" but that "it became apparent that the government was using its information not merely to help it formulate its relief policies, but also as an opportunity to facilitate various long-desired changes within Ireland".[200]

Some also pointed to the structure of the British Empire as a contributing factor. James Anthony Froude wrote that "England governed Ireland for what she deemed her own interest, making her calculations on the gross balance of her trade ledgers, and leaving moral obligations aside, as if right and wrong had been blotted out of the statute book of the Universe."[201] Dennis Clark, an Irish-American historian and critic of empire, claimed the famine was "the culmination of generations of neglect, misrule and repression. It was an epic of English colonial cruelty and inadequacy. For the landless cabin dwellers it meant emigration or extinction..."[202]

Position of the British government[edit]

The British government has not expressly apologized for its role in the famine. But in 1997, at a commemoration event in County Cork, the actor Gabriel Byrne read out a message by Prime Minister Tony Blair that acknowledged the inadequacy of the government response. It asserted that "those who governed in London at the time failed their people through standing by while a crop failure turned into a massive human tragedy". The message was well-received in Ireland, where it was understood as the long sought-after British apology. Archive documents released in 2021 showed that the message was not in fact written or approved by Blair, who could not be reached by aides at the time. It was therefore approved by Blair's principal private secretary John Holmes on his own initiative.[203]

Genocide question

 

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 27 of 27 comments

Mat Cendana

I didn't know about that great famine in China until around 2008 or so when I read a book about it. Some really shocking incidents during this period that would seem like `fiction' or `propaganda' by enemies. But these were verified by people there.

Although not widespread, there were incidents of fresh graves being dug up at night, with the bodies consumed. Those who did so knew it was wrong, and they were extremely ashamed. But that's what starvation can lead people to do. Traumatic just reading about this and knowing it happened :-(

It's fortunate that we have never faced this kind of situation before. So much so that we take food for granted. As seen by the wastage of leftovers at home and restaurants that are simply thrown away. And how often have we ourselves pushed away food after taking just a bit because "Tak sedap".

It isn't urgent right now but would do well for us to think about food security and do something about this. Particularly at home, of which all of us can do something about. At our own pace, while the going is good.

2022-01-05 13:20

calvintaneng

Correct

I remember my growing early years in Kl

In the 1960s my eldest brother arrived from China xiamen. I was born in Malaysia while he was born in China

One morning during breakfast as usual my father bought a loaf of bread from the bread salesman on bicycle (in those days no Gardenia bread)

It was a huge uncut loaf of white bread with the skin burnt brown/black

My father cut away the burnt skin and we only ate the white part

To my surprise my brother who just arrived from China said , Why waste food. The burnt part also edible. And picked them up and starting to eat them

That was an eye opener as he lived through those horrible famine time in China now all forgotten

2022-01-05 13:41

TheGardener

Post removed.Why?

2022-01-05 14:29

InsiderShark

food shortages? buy QL loh...

2022-01-05 16:24

calvintaneng

food shortages due to flood, drought and lock down hinder harvester and later high fertilizer cost hinder planting more

avoid all poultry which face high feed cost of cornmeal

avoid all biscuit makers due to high flour and cooking oil prices

buy palm oil companies as 50% of supermarket items contain palm oil

2022-01-05 16:38

ahbah

palm oil companies .... the superstars for this yr !!!!

2022-01-05 17:42

calvintaneng

hahaha

ahbah so clever

you going to earn enough from palm oil bull run and get free nasi lemak for yourself and family for the rest of your lives

2022-01-05 17:45

Mat Cendana

Most of the analysts usually quoted by The Edge, The Star Business etc. had gotten it wrong with CPO prices. I remember one guy who said in late 2020 it will undergo a sharp correction back to the lower RM3,000 from June 2021. Instead it continued going up, regaining momentum whenever it did correct. The current price and duration weren't in these analysts' calculations.

These plantation counters aren't exciting like tech. Which is fine for those of us who prefer their prices to just creep up quietly. And I believe the general market will sooner or later realise they are a must-have in investors' portfolios. Right now, any time the prices drop, that's an opportunity to add. And just wait.

2022-01-06 10:46

stockraider

U see why plantation is the best safe value investment leh ?!

Why leh ??

1. It is traded at attractive price with big discount & margin of safety mah!

2. Plantation land are good hedge of inflation loh!

3. Plantation generate good steady cash flow & earned big forex for the country mah!

4. Plantation give food to the people, thus is a very essential economic sector loh!

5. Plantation are not affected by the risk of very fast technology changes that will make the industry obsolete and disrupt the prospect...This plantaion industry & predictable mah!

6. If u believe long term sustainable cash generating business go for plantation loh!

2022-01-06 10:55

ahbah

calvintan ... a mkt pastor sent to i3 from the above, to rescue us from moni famine

n to give us prosperity harvest !

2022-01-06 11:16

镠公公

Are you a scientist or an investor? Keep quiet and leave the science for the experts

2022-01-06 13:52

calvintaneng

Neither scientist nor investor
An Investigator yes!

Posted by NorazmiAR > Jan 6, 2022 1:38 PM | Report Abuse

Why investors cannot see the bumper profit for BPlant at current high CPO price RM5300/tonne at almost all time high? Share price is not reflecting the fundamental of this company potential!!


Why Investors cannot see?

Answer:

Constant harping by Many Dirty IB Bankers (Hong Leong Research excepted as it is speaking the truth. HL Research is for palm oil)

Many Dirty IB Bankers issued too many Palm oil call warrants to BET AGAINST PALM OIL

As such they kept downgrading and downgrading palm oil all throughout 2021

In cahoot with these Dirty IB Bankers the Media published lopsided projections that Cpo prices cannot sustain and will fall back (Which is now found to be A BIG LIE)

And use the fake ESG concern against palm oil

So the Masses are drugged by Dirty Ib Bankers & Dirty Media to avoid palm oil shares

This is why the General Market players always ended up losing money in the Stock market year after year (90% of Punters/Traders confirmed losing money. Blame the Dity IB Bankers & the Dirty Media)

Now you must do independent study if you want to succeed and do well in the Stock market as only the rare 10% will eventually make money

2022-01-06 13:55

ahbah

The bountiful fruit that grows on the oil palm tree produces 11 times more oil than

soybean plants,

ten times more than sunflower and

seven times more than canola, per hectare per year.

In other words, it takes more than ten times more land to produce the same amount

of soybean oil as palm oil.

2022-01-06 16:05

ahbah

When it comes to land use, the oil palm tree stands tall. This “golden crop” is the most efficient oil crop in the world. Sustainably grown in Malaysia, this stately tree feeds billions, brings prosperity to farmers and nurtures its environment. And it accomplishes this on just a tiny sliver of the world’s farmland. Now, that’s smart growth!

The world has four major oil seed crops: oil palm, soybean, sunflower and canola (rapeseed). Together, they use 3.55 percent of the world’s total agricultural land. Oil palm occupies the least land: just 0.23 percent of the world’s farmland. Sunflower uses 0.51 percent, rapeseed 0.67 percent and soybean, the most at 2.14 percent.

Despite using the least amount of land, oil palm provides the highest yield of oil. The bountiful fruit that grows on the oil palm tree produces 11 times more oil than soybean plants, ten times more than sunflower and seven times more than canola, per hectare per year. In other words, it takes more than ten times more land to produce the same amount of soybean oil as palm oil.

And unlike the other oil seed crops, palm oil is a perennial crop with a 25-year life cycle. Instead of having to plant and replant year after year, the tall, leafy oil palm trees produce generous supplies of fresh fruit bunches all year long. This conserves energy and reduces soil erosion. The trees also act as an effective carbon sink. When it comes to sustainable agriculture, Malaysian palm oil is simply the superior crop for its effective land utilization.

SEE ALSO What are tocotrienols?
Why is land use important?
The world’s population is growing rapidly: from four billion in 1974 to seven billion people today, and an estimated nine billion people by 2050. Ensuring that each and every person has access to safe and nutritious food, known as food security, is a growing concern. The Malaysian palm oil industry stands ready to help meet the world’s demand for healthy, non-GMO oils and fats. Oil palm, the world’s most efficient oil crop, can help feed the world while conserving our natural resources.

2022-01-06 16:07

ahbah

Plantation sector to reap the most from the upbeat CPO prices.

CPO price has been elevated in 2021 (avg: RM4,133/MT) and should maintain firm averaging around RM4,000/MT in 2022 on the back of

(i) sustainable demand from India and China, tagging the economic recovery theme and the

(ii) La Nina occurrence.

Source: Mplus Research - 5 Jan 2022

2022-01-06 17:46

Wizman

Bullish on all palm oil related stocks 2022-2023 as commodity CPO most likely will sustain...

2022-01-06 18:08

abang_misai

Ada lagi simpan Kpower?

2022-01-06 20:38

calvintaneng

abang_misai Ada lagi simpan Kpower?
06/01/2022 8:38 PM

Kpower is Ok. Should go up 20% to 30% this year & more next year

Now you got buy these that can give 100% to 200% for palm oil bull run soon?

TAANN
TSH
SOP

BPLANT
THPLANT
BPLANT

Better don't miss ok

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2022-01-06...

2022-01-06 22:51

ahbah

Get in fast while they are chip chip now !!!

Later, we all got to pay high entrance fee lah.

2022-01-07 09:51

calvintaneng

In year 2020 Catalyst for Glove superbull was Coronavirus
Now game over with the rise of China gloves

Now will be palm oil bullrun due to very high canola oil and soyoil pushing up palm oil

The catalysts are all converging for palm oil

2022-01-21 08:35

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