THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
TOP REASONS WHY PALM OIL STOCKS SHOULD DO WELL AND REBOUND FROM CURRENT WEAKNESS, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 23 Jul 2022, 09:23 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,791
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Investors,
Many people erroneously think that Palm oil bull run is game over due to Palm oil being Glove 2 and because of other factors of chart telling them trend is over
We beg to differ. And these are our Reasons to be Still Bullish in Palm oil
1) PALM OIL IS NOT GLOVE
Glove bull run came crashing down because of China Factor, China's glove factories mushroomed when they saw the sudden rise of new glove billionaires and they came to join the party. Leading to TOTAL OVERPRODUCTION, GLUT & FIERCE PRICE WAR
From ASP Premium now Gloves facing ASP Discount & So losses abound.
Palm oil on the other hand cannot be set up in 6 to 9 short months unlike glove
It takes up to 9 or 10 years from buying raw land, landscaping, planting to 1st drop of cooking oil
So there is a HIGH TIME BARRIER
2) INDON SUDDEN EXPORT RESUMPTION IMPACT WILL BE FLEETING
While the Temporary surge of Indon's 7 Million extra surplus Tons in the resumption of export we think it will only take few short weeks to clear. Total Palm oil consumption on world market is 73 Million Tonnes. So about 6 Million Tonnes will be taken up monthly
At the same time war in Ukraine still hampered sunflower oil production, storage & export even if export of grain is on truce.
Canola crop in Canada has shrunk by 7% this year after last year's drought in Canada
3) HIGH OIL PRICES DUE TO CONSTRAINT IN PRODUCTION WILL KEEP OIL ABOVE USD100 RANGE
AND WILL BOOST BIOFUEL USE. AND BY PROXY PALM OIL PRICES WILL BE SUSTAINED
PLUS JOE BIDEN ELECTION MANDATE TO PIVOT INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS SPURRED LOTS OF NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY FACTORIES NEEDING SOYBEAN AS FEED STOCK
4) PALM OIL COST & SALE FACTOR STILL EXCELLENT
YES! THERE WAS A SUDDEN SURGE OF PALM OIL PRICES OVER RM7,000 LEADING TO SPIKE IN PALM OIL STOCK PRICES
But the subsequent fall below Rm4,000 to Rm3,700 now does not warrant Palm oil Stocks to be sold lower than its Pre-Boom price
Many have been recklessly thrown down into OVESOLD in panic which is unwarranted
As such we think this is the best of time to bargain buy before they all rebound up
Think soberly & calmly.
Cost of Cpo production for THPLANT, TSH, INNO & OTHERS WERE RM1,500 PER TON
With higher labour & fertilizer cost has gone up to Rm1,800
Now Cpo is still at Rm3,700 per ton
That is Rm1,900 profit a ton or more than 100%
Some predict CPO will fall below Rm3,000
We think it is just too premature to give such forecast
Unless Crude oil also crash back to USD60 level, rise of Competing Vege oil like Soyoil, Sunflower oil & Canola oil in Unison it is hard for palm oil to sell at too wide a discount to them
Right now in EU Heatwave wiping out crops & more black swan unknown out there.
5) THE GREATEST EARNINGS QUARTER FOR PALM OIL IS AUGUST 2022 (Reporting for April - June 2022)
Most Palm oil companies have witnessed higher FFB this coming Qtr compared to last Qtr like
SWKPLANT (Cpo Production up 26.9%)
JAYA TIASA (Up 26%)
TSH RESOURCES (Up 20.9%)
TAANN (Up 20%)
THPLANT (Up 19%)
SOP (Up 11%)
This period also witnessed the high Cpo price average of Rm6,552 per ton (Highest World record in Palm oil History)
6) PALM OIL CO INSIDERS & FUNDS ARE BUYING
While Market sold down we see Directors of Palm oil Co are buying
TSH RESOURCES
TAANN
SWKPLANT
UMALACCA
SUBUR TIASA
OTHERS
ALL MOSTLY BUYING NO SELLING
ALSO KWAP FUNDS BUYING SIMEDARBY PLANT
EPF BUYING KLK & OTHERS
7) WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN AUGUST 2022 FOR PALM OIL STOCKS?
A BEST STRING OF SPECTACULAR PROFITS & NEW RECORDS!
HIGH DIVIDENDS
SPECIAL DIVIDENDS
POSSIBLE FREE BONUS
POSSIBLE FREE WARRANTS
POSSIBLE TAKEOVER (LIKE KLK TAKING OVER IJMPLANT)
ALL OF THE ABOVE COMBINED
SO STAY INVESTED.
SEE IF THEY WILL COME TRUE.
JUST ONE MONTH AWAY
WARMEST & HEARTIEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 29 of 29 comments
WE R IN AN ENDLESS FIN EXAM
Players capable of spotting the topic or theme.play will be the national top scorers.
There r 2 to 4 cycles p.a. of BIG money on KLSE.
In this 1st half of 2022, there were 3.
all of them, ev.metal, palm oil n oil refinery themes were GG bcos:
their weekly prices, C ;
C < ema18 = purebear
C < ema42 = big purebear = could take long long time to be played by Mr Mkt again.
at best could REBOUND.
PLAY WHAT MR MKT WANTS TO PLAY UP
Nobody knows what Mr Mkt wants to play yet in the 2nd half of 2022.
Am just too early to guess GLOVE as TG is showing high daily vol consistently.
it could not be TECH or what not!
When Mr Mkt shows the THEME, it will be outstanding n majestic,,, always,,
we will follow u, Mr Mkt,,
NB:
Each theme.play enter at right.timing has potential profit of 40 to 80%. tis the way to CAGR.
nobody losses by taking a profit, advised by sir templeton.
2022-07-24 13:16
On many occasions, after she opened her mouth the price drops.
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/07/24/zuraida-c...
2022-07-24 13:37
For theme play just follow where money flows.
1. During 9Mp Pm Badawi implemented huge infrar jobs
Theme play was construction material like Cement and Steel
Cements like Lafarge, Ytl-Cement, Tasek and CIMA (cement industry of Malaysia) surged 300% to 500%
Long steel like annjoo, masteel and southern steel up 200% to 300%
Then got Weak ringgit so furniture export theme like pohuat, latitude, lihen surged due to strong Us dollar
Then Gst theme Myeg up 100%
Then in year 2017 ecommerce theme : Drb highcom and pos office
2019 Petronas gave Rm30 billions for ogse
Dayang, Penergy, Carimin (currymee)
2020 Covid 19
All gloves and healthcare
Now is palm oil Superbull
2022-07-24 14:02
Where earnings are strongest the theme play goes
palm oil bull run still running after bull has rested
Cost of Cpo production was Rm1500 per ton. Rise of wages push it to Rm1,800
Current Cpo price is Rm3700
Profit is more than 100%
No other business or industry can even give 20% to 30% real profit as of now
2022-07-24 14:06
Why Cpo will be above Rm3000 range to Rm5000 range and very hard to fall lower?
Answer :
Brent crude was usd30 in year 2020 now at Usd103
So for Cpo to fall to Rm2000 Brent must crash to usd30
Go see Ron97
See if it will crash back to Rm2.70
If not don't ever think Cpo will go lower
2022-07-24 14:09
Soyoil was below Us 30 sen a lb
Now still near Us60 sen a lb
Above it's all time high
Cpo at Rm3700 is below it's all time high of Rm4,000 past record
So if soyoil remain high Cpo will also remain high
Cpo Already selling at hugh discount to soyoil
2022-07-24 14:12
These people became Billionaires when Cpo only traded between Rm3000 to Rm4000
Robert Kuok
His nephew
Remisier Peter Lim of Spore
Now we see Cpo range Rm3500 to Rm5500
2022-07-24 14:14
Canola oil at past record was Usd 600
Now Usd800
Still up by 50% more in new record while Cpo is below past record
Can expect Cpo to rebound
2022-07-24 14:15
Sunflower oil also up 50% more from past record
Also in Ukraine
Sunflower oil still in storage from last year's harvest
This year crop already impacted by war even if can be harvested will have little space for storage
Impoverished farmers will stop planting next year
Sunflower oil shortfall will last for 3 years
2022-07-24 14:19
Should have sold when price is good
Now everyday write bullish articles no point already
2022-07-24 15:20
TSH RESOURCES (9059) KEEP THESE FIGURES IN MIND IF YOU OWN TSH SHARES (PRINT IT OUT PUT IT ON THE WALL TO REMIND YOURSELVES), Calvin Tan
https://sgx.i3investor.com/blogs/Jbhouseforsale/2022-07-24-story-h49564213-TSH_RESOURCES_9059_KEEP_THESE_FIGURES_IN_MIND_IF_YOU_OWN_TSH_SHARES_PRINT.jsp
2022-07-24 22:24
better sell palm oil stocks now before too late
We all know it is not bottom yet
2022-07-25 05:44
it is near bottom or already bottomed out
Time for rebound and Better don't miss
moneypox won't help gloves much as there are trillions and trillions gloves that China can make to last a hundred years
palm oil is not enough as it is not manmade
2022-07-25 11:48
The lands that belonged to the company matters. Not only investing in the fruits but the lands as well. Take longer years like one has invested in KLK more than 5 years ago.
Apart from the different type of emphasis periodically on the price of the CPO/profits, the Oil palm companies hold plenty of lands which can bring extraordinary profits. One of the examples, KLK does have lands that are nearby the urbanized area and some lands being used for housing development that gave more income to the company. Also, the lands in the Balance Sheet are more valuable when being revaluated as compared to the book value.
2022-07-25 18:01
Uncle, Aunty, grandma and grandpa also know lands are valuable assets and it can only appreciate over time. Even after a forest fire or even if after a bomb dropped onto the land, the land will still remain there.
2022-07-25 21:11
TOP REASONS WHY PALM OIL STOCKS COULD DOWNTURN AND WEAKEN FURTHER
1. High inventory of palm oil stocks. Indonesia will have 10 M tonnes of stocks by end of July. Malaysia took 2 years to reduce inventory from 2 M to 1.5 M tonnes. For a long time, Malaysia has some 10% of its annual production as stocks. Now Indonesia has some 20% as stocks while producing some 4 M tonnes of palm each month. It already happening in Indonesia, when your tanks are full at the mills, the harvesting has to stop. In Malaysia, the inventory stocks are adding some 6% each month. Knowing oil palm, the second half of the year procduces some 60% of the annual crop.
2. There is a significant increase of fertiliser costs in plantations. Plantations use lots of Potash, Nitrates and Phosphates. The costs are already eating into the profits and margins. Most Quarterly results will show increased revenues but net profits remain prosaic.
3. FFB yields per hectare and labour productivity have not increased for the past years in Malaysia. Harvesting, maintenance and transport of produce has remained the same. There is shortage of labour, increased in minimum wages and higher fuel prices. Minimum wage of RM1500 means all maintenance workers cost will rise. Higher palm prices mean harvesters are paid more because they are piece-rated based on palm oil prices.
So, lower palm prices and higher operating costs is the tide you are going to face...
2022-07-26 09:48
Today crude oil and other commodities green green grass of home. Yeah
2022-07-26 11:03
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Cpo going to RM2k soon
2022-07-24 13:06