THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

TOP REASONS WHY PALM OIL STOCKS SHOULD DO WELL AND REBOUND FROM CURRENT WEAKNESS, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 23 Jul 2022, 09:23 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear  Investors,

Many people erroneously think that Palm oil bull run is game over due to Palm oil being Glove 2 and because of other factors of chart telling them trend is over

We beg to differ. And these are our Reasons to be Still Bullish in Palm oil


1) PALM OIL IS NOT GLOVE

Glove bull run came crashing down because of China Factor, China's glove factories mushroomed when they saw the sudden rise of new glove billionaires and they came to join the party. Leading to TOTAL OVERPRODUCTION, GLUT & FIERCE  PRICE WAR

From ASP Premium now Gloves facing ASP Discount & So losses abound.

Palm oil on the other hand cannot be set up in 6 to 9 short months unlike glove

It takes up to 9 or 10 years from buying raw land, landscaping, planting to 1st drop of cooking oil

So there is a HIGH TIME BARRIER


2) INDON SUDDEN EXPORT RESUMPTION IMPACT WILL BE FLEETING

While the Temporary surge of Indon's 7 Million extra surplus Tons in the resumption of export we think it will only take few short weeks to clear. Total Palm oil consumption on world market is 73 Million Tonnes. So about 6 Million Tonnes will be taken up monthly

At the same time war in Ukraine still hampered sunflower oil production, storage & export even if export of grain is on truce.

Canola crop in Canada has shrunk by 7% this year after last year's drought in Canada


3) HIGH OIL PRICES DUE TO CONSTRAINT IN PRODUCTION WILL KEEP OIL ABOVE USD100 RANGE

AND WILL BOOST BIOFUEL USE. AND BY PROXY PALM OIL PRICES WILL BE SUSTAINED

PLUS JOE BIDEN ELECTION MANDATE TO PIVOT INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS SPURRED LOTS OF NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY FACTORIES NEEDING SOYBEAN AS FEED STOCK


4) PALM OIL COST & SALE FACTOR STILL EXCELLENT

YES! THERE WAS A SUDDEN SURGE OF PALM OIL PRICES OVER RM7,000 LEADING TO SPIKE IN PALM OIL STOCK PRICES

But the subsequent fall below Rm4,000 to Rm3,700 now does not warrant Palm oil Stocks to be sold lower than its Pre-Boom price

Many have been recklessly thrown down into OVESOLD in panic which is unwarranted

As such we think this is the best of time to bargain buy before they all rebound up

Think  soberly & calmly.

Cost of Cpo production for THPLANT, TSH, INNO & OTHERS WERE RM1,500 PER TON

With higher labour & fertilizer cost has gone up to Rm1,800

Now Cpo is still at Rm3,700 per ton

That is Rm1,900 profit a ton or more than 100%

Some predict CPO will fall below Rm3,000

We think it is just too premature to give such forecast 

Unless Crude oil also crash back to USD60 level, rise of Competing Vege oil like Soyoil, Sunflower oil & Canola oil in Unison it is hard for palm oil to sell at too wide a discount to them

Right now in EU Heatwave wiping out crops & more black swan unknown out there.


5) THE GREATEST EARNINGS QUARTER FOR PALM OIL IS AUGUST 2022 (Reporting for April - June 2022) 

Most Palm oil companies have witnessed higher FFB this coming Qtr compared to last Qtr like

 SWKPLANT (Cpo Production up 26.9%)

JAYA TIASA (Up 26%)

TSH RESOURCES (Up 20.9%)

TAANN (Up 20%)

THPLANT (Up 19%)

SOP (Up 11%)

This period also witnessed the high Cpo price average of Rm6,552 per ton (Highest World record in Palm oil History)


6) PALM OIL CO INSIDERS & FUNDS ARE BUYING

While Market sold down we see Directors of Palm oil Co are buying

TSH RESOURCES

TAANN

SWKPLANT

UMALACCA

SUBUR TIASA

OTHERS

ALL MOSTLY BUYING NO SELLING


ALSO KWAP FUNDS BUYING SIMEDARBY PLANT

EPF BUYING KLK & OTHERS


7) WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN AUGUST 2022 FOR PALM OIL STOCKS?

A BEST STRING OF SPECTACULAR PROFITS & NEW RECORDS!

HIGH DIVIDENDS

SPECIAL DIVIDENDS

POSSIBLE FREE BONUS

POSSIBLE FREE WARRANTS

POSSIBLE TAKEOVER (LIKE KLK TAKING OVER IJMPLANT)

ALL OF THE ABOVE COMBINED

SO STAY INVESTED.

SEE IF THEY WILL COME TRUE.

JUST ONE MONTH AWAY


WARMEST & HEARTIEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan


Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager.


Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 30 of 30 comments

photon

Cpo going to RM2k soon

2 months ago

PureBULL ...

WE R IN AN ENDLESS FIN EXAM

Players capable of spotting the topic or theme.play will be the national top scorers.

There r 2 to 4 cycles p.a. of BIG money on KLSE.
In this 1st half of 2022, there were 3.
all of them, ev.metal, palm oil n oil refinery themes were GG bcos:
their weekly prices, C ;
C < ema18 = purebear
C < ema42 = big purebear = could take long long time to be played by Mr Mkt again.
at best could REBOUND.

PLAY WHAT MR MKT WANTS TO PLAY UP
Nobody knows what Mr Mkt wants to play yet in the 2nd half of 2022.
Am just too early to guess GLOVE as TG is showing high daily vol consistently.
it could not be TECH or what not!

When Mr Mkt shows the THEME, it will be outstanding n majestic,,, always,,
we will follow u, Mr Mkt,,

NB:
Each theme.play enter at right.timing has potential profit of 40 to 80%. tis the way to CAGR.
nobody losses by taking a profit, advised by sir templeton.

2 months ago

StartOfTheBull

On many occasions, after she opened her mouth the price drops.
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/07/24/zuraida-c...

2 months ago

calvintaneng

For theme play just follow where money flows.

1. During 9Mp Pm Badawi implemented huge infrar jobs

Theme play was construction material like Cement and Steel

Cements like Lafarge, Ytl-Cement, Tasek and CIMA (cement industry of Malaysia) surged 300% to 500%

Long steel like annjoo, masteel and southern steel up 200% to 300%

Then got Weak ringgit so furniture export theme like pohuat, latitude, lihen surged due to strong Us dollar

Then Gst theme Myeg up 100%

Then in year 2017 ecommerce theme : Drb highcom and pos office

2019 Petronas gave Rm30 billions for ogse
Dayang, Penergy, Carimin (currymee)

2020 Covid 19
All gloves and healthcare

Now is palm oil Superbull

2 months ago

photon

RM2k next month

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Where earnings are strongest the theme play goes

palm oil bull run still running after bull has rested

Cost of Cpo production was Rm1500 per ton. Rise of wages push it to Rm1,800

Current Cpo price is Rm3700

Profit is more than 100%

No other business or industry can even give 20% to 30% real profit as of now

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Why Cpo will be above Rm3000 range to Rm5000 range and very hard to fall lower?

Answer :

Brent crude was usd30 in year 2020 now at Usd103

So for Cpo to fall to Rm2000 Brent must crash to usd30

Go see Ron97

See if it will crash back to Rm2.70

If not don't ever think Cpo will go lower

2 months ago

photon

It is over

2 months ago

photon

The cycle is over

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Soyoil was below Us 30 sen a lb
Now still near Us60 sen a lb

Above it's all time high

Cpo at Rm3700 is below it's all time high of Rm4,000 past record

So if soyoil remain high Cpo will also remain high

Cpo Already selling at hugh discount to soyoil

2 months ago

calvintaneng

These people became Billionaires when Cpo only traded between Rm3000 to Rm4000

Robert Kuok
His nephew
Remisier Peter Lim of Spore

Now we see Cpo range Rm3500 to Rm5500

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Canola oil at past record was Usd 600

Now Usd800

Still up by 50% more in new record while Cpo is below past record

Can expect Cpo to rebound

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Sunflower oil also up 50% more from past record

Also in Ukraine

Sunflower oil still in storage from last year's harvest

This year crop already impacted by war even if can be harvested will have little space for storage

Impoverished farmers will stop planting next year

Sunflower oil shortfall will last for 3 years

2 months ago

photon

Next cycle will go up to RM10,000

2 months ago

photon

Next cycle will go up to RM10,000 per tonne

2 months ago

photon

But need to wait for 20 years

2 months ago

photon

wait for Russia to annex Alaska

2 months ago

photon

Should have sold when price is good

Now everyday write bullish articles no point already

2 months ago

photon

The cycle is over

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Palm oil bull lasted 4 years

1997 to 2011
2008 to 2012

Remisier King of Singapore invested $15 millions into Wilmar in year 1996 and 14 years later he cashed out with $1.5 BILLIONS

THIS ROUND DUE TO HIGH OIL PRICES, CLIMATE CHANGE OF DROUGHT, WAR, FLOOD AND POPULATION GROWTH PLUS LIMITED EXPANSION OF PALM OIL LANDS THE CYCLE WILL LAST LONGER THAN 4 YEARS

2 months ago

Hafid

Fertilizer cost up tremendously

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Russia now exporting fertilizer again
Price coming down

2 months ago

calvintaneng

TSH RESOURCES (9059) KEEP THESE FIGURES IN MIND IF YOU OWN TSH SHARES (PRINT IT OUT PUT IT ON THE WALL TO REMIND YOURSELVES), Calvin Tan

https://sgx.i3investor.com/blogs/Jbhouseforsale/2022-07-24-story-h49564213-TSH_RESOURCES_9059_KEEP_THESE_FIGURES_IN_MIND_IF_YOU_OWN_TSH_SHARES_PRINT.jsp

2 months ago

photon

better sell palm oil stocks now before too late

We all know it is not bottom yet

2 months ago

calvintaneng

it is near bottom or already bottomed out

Time for rebound and Better don't miss

moneypox won't help gloves much as there are trillions and trillions gloves that China can make to last a hundred years

palm oil is not enough as it is not manmade

2 months ago

beinvested

The lands that belonged to the company matters. Not only investing in the fruits but the lands as well. Take longer years like one has invested in KLK more than 5 years ago.

Apart from the different type of emphasis periodically on the price of the CPO/profits, the Oil palm companies hold plenty of lands which can bring extraordinary profits. One of the examples, KLK does have lands that are nearby the urbanized area and some lands being used for housing development that gave more income to the company. Also, the lands in the Balance Sheet are more valuable when being revaluated as compared to the book value.

2 months ago

severgazinvest

Jet fuel(JP 54-A1,5),Diesel(Gas Oil)and Fuel Oil D2, D6, EN590 EURO 4 ETC in FOB/Rotterdam only, serious buyer should contact Call/Whatsapp+79167856894
or email:paveleriks@mail.ru
Best Regards

2 months ago

StartOfTheBull

Uncle, Aunty, grandma and grandpa also know lands are valuable assets and it can only appreciate over time. Even after a forest fire or even if after a bomb dropped onto the land, the land will still remain there.

2 months ago

Abidjan

TOP REASONS WHY PALM OIL STOCKS COULD DOWNTURN AND WEAKEN FURTHER

1. High inventory of palm oil stocks. Indonesia will have 10 M tonnes of stocks by end of July. Malaysia took 2 years to reduce inventory from 2 M to 1.5 M tonnes. For a long time, Malaysia has some 10% of its annual production as stocks. Now Indonesia has some 20% as stocks while producing some 4 M tonnes of palm each month. It already happening in Indonesia, when your tanks are full at the mills, the harvesting has to stop. In Malaysia, the inventory stocks are adding some 6% each month. Knowing oil palm, the second half of the year procduces some 60% of the annual crop.
2. There is a significant increase of fertiliser costs in plantations. Plantations use lots of Potash, Nitrates and Phosphates. The costs are already eating into the profits and margins. Most Quarterly results will show increased revenues but net profits remain prosaic.
3. FFB yields per hectare and labour productivity have not increased for the past years in Malaysia. Harvesting, maintenance and transport of produce has remained the same. There is shortage of labour, increased in minimum wages and higher fuel prices. Minimum wage of RM1500 means all maintenance workers cost will rise. Higher palm prices mean harvesters are paid more because they are piece-rated based on palm oil prices.

So, lower palm prices and higher operating costs is the tide you are going to face...

2 months ago

StartOfTheBull

Today crude oil and other commodities green green grass of home. Yeah

2 months ago

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