Time to buy, my paper gain, turned to paper loss for petronm.

Real daring is people who buy stocks near all time high, cause risk is the highest.

But of course, most people don't see it this way.

I'm very conservative and kiamsiap, that's why i only catch falling diamond knives! Ahahaha

stklearner if whole market,include KLCI suddenly drop a lot, big players try to generate follow thru panic sell, will rebound 1-2 days, at least 1/2, good time for the daring, but i do not follow this stk..just my view
04/04/2018 16:33

Ah here lies the difference between us.

I don't view volatility or price movements as any measure of risk. The only risk for me is unexpected permanent and adverse change in fundamentals, causing a permanent loss of capital.

I can do this because i only put super long term money in.

In all the time i've spent investing. I've never taken money out of my trading account. Even dividends all throw in. I look at all my companies as Sdn Bhd.

During the 2008 crisis, they were 3 periods of consolidation all the way down. And at the bottom, no one wanted to buy, except for warren buffet, who bought all the way down.

What you think is low, can go far far far lower. Or it can limit up tmr.

And when its at the very top, people cant wait to buy, but when it hits all time low, no one wants to even touch it.



"The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant."

Arthur C. Pigou

"In economics and investing, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could."

Rudiger Dornbusch




What i know, because i admit i know nothing of the folly of men, and will never be able to predict price movements consistently enough to give me an edge, is that the price will move anywhere it wants.

The only thing i know consistently is my estimate on the range of intrinsic value and its discount to the price. The bigger the discount, the more ill buy. The lower it is, the less ill buy, or the more ill sell.

As always, don't go on margin. Its the only way you'll survive if this turns into a crisis.

This is why i love love love financial institutions so much.

The funny thing about life is, the more money people make, the more they borrow!! And this growth in income and amount being borrowed tend to be very closely linked up to a certain point.

I mean, when you're worth 500mil, you probably wont be borrowing so much on a percentage basis.

While a person worth say 2mil, probably has 1.7mil in debts.

A poor man borrows to buy proton, a middle class man borrows to buy BMW, and the rich man borrows to buy ferrari!

The more govt servants make, the more rcecap will grow. And will government servants make less in the future?

We have 1.6 million govt servants. That is 1.6 mil votes. I cannot think of even one democratic government in the history of the world, that won the next election once they have cut down the size or salary of their civil service.

No matter who wins, the civil service will stay this size. If PH wins, at best, instead of growing it by 10% cagr per annum (total amount of salary paid to civil servants) , they will slow it down to 5%, or freeze it unofficially.

martinam Jon, good news is gov servants are given 2 increments this year which will help to shore-up RCE.
04/04/2018 16:08

This is the funniest thing i find about the stock market.

As prices fall, and the risk of permanent loss of capital gets lower and lower. The more people do not want to buy.

While when price go up, and the risk of permanent loss of capital gets higher and higher, the more excited people are about buying!

Outliar Now is most definitely not the time to buy
04/04/2018 15:45

As always, if anyone here thinks my analysis on the fundamentals of RCECAP is wrong. And results in an intrinsic value of less than RM1.5.

Please let me know. I'd rather cut loss now.

Obviously eko.

Wow, back to pre 2017 price.

My estimated FV is 2.46

I write here how i value financial institutions. Its a long read btw.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

I make predictions on the market and the price because i can't help it, its human nature.

But i don't make my decisions solely on them. I will only lean on it at best.

I used to be 100% invested. Now, im 93% invested, due to spare cash i have not put in. Optimally, id like to be 80-85% invested by the time election results come out. Do note, im not selling any shares, the new money coms from investors or my own income.

But i'm also aware, that the biggest gains is made in the buying during bear markets, so i need to keep this in mind as well, and don't be scared.

Nobody holding more than 5% is selling. You look at the volume, its the tiny retailers selling. And here's the thing about the markets. Prices in the short to mid term is set by the small, illogical and intolerant few.

Only in the long term do we know what its really worth.

No comment on if you should sell or not, if you cannot hold, sell until you can hold. Or if you're unbearably scared and unsure, sell all.

If it goes up to my FV a year, 2 years or 3 years from today. Take it as lesson learnt.

If 3 years from now its down to 30 sen due to fraud etc (Or whatever that fundamental affects the company) in the company. Take it as a lesson in diversification. Because what you don't know that you don't know is the one that will kill you.


TakeProfits Walauyeh, this stock sliding down most days....It's following the whole market drop-down.....Also could be a,major shareholder selling. Wah my average 1.30. Jon what should I do.? Anyone with any comments. ?? Bit worried and concerned.( .puluh keluar lar).
Is the markets actions a harbinger of BN loss and a PH win!!
03/04/2018 19:37

Look at Airasia from RM3 to RM2.1 in 2016. People are not saying about how something is wrong with the P&L now :)

At the current price, the current value of the company is not even factored in. Much less any growth prospect.

I'm holding, and buying more.

===========================================================================

stklearner something not right with this stock, inspite of the apparent rosy P&L, the share has been sliding down slowly since its peak in May 2017.
It could mean the high growth of 23% and 37.5% for 2016 & 2017, cannot be repeated for 2018.Also, some major holder could be selling for reasons unknown.
03/04/2018 15:04

Not a fan of ESOS as well. Id rather they just give cash bonus, but used in moderation (and not abused), it can be good in aligning employees to the well being of the company and shareholders.

On the dropping of price.

I will quote Howard marks on this.

To succeed in investing, you need 3 things.
1) The ability to estimate the intrinsic value of an investment.
2) The ability to hold and buy more as prices fall.
3) And most importantly, to be right.

I don't think im wrong. So ill buy more.

My cost is 1.55. I may buy more. However, i think PH will win this election, which will cause market crash for a few weeks or months depending on the smoothness of the transition. So im also saving up more cash.

Decisions, decisions, decisions.

This looks interesting.

MFRS 9 mainly affects the big banks.

MFRS 9 changes impairment recognition completely. Instead of recognizing impairment as and when they come.

You now have to provide an impairment the moment you make a loan or buy an asset. The impairment % made is based on historical analysis or whatever you have on hand.

And the key thing is that your expected impairment cannot be less than 1% if im not mistaken. this means, banks which own alot of government bonds etc, which they say have zero impairment previously, now need to impair 1%.

While companies like RCE, while they will be affected, should be not that drastic, since they dont have these "zero impairment" assets to begin with.

In addition, the last year quarter and report will also need to be restated under the new standard. So no diff really. Just an accounting standard.

paperplane Will MFRS9 going to impact their book significantly for RCECAP? another concerns also, they would need to allocate some impairments there.
03/04/2018 12:58

Rmbr, when fight bear, cannot turn on margin.

Max also only 50% margin and you better be able to pay back quick.

I don't know what separates their product from say redbull. Taste the same. Marketing wise, maybe im the market their targeting, but it does not seem that good to me.

Look at Monster and how they marketed to the US. Its fantastic.

Could anyone illuminate me on the marketing method they are using in the UAE etc.

Here is a summary if you no time to go through the 257 pages. Quite illuminating really.

http://pages.malaysiakini.com/1mdb/en/

kinuxian,

There is a certain value in helping others see your perspective, as well as seeing their perspective.

Unfortunately, there is a limit to the amount of time and energy we have.

Sorry goodcompanies, really no time to help you.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/973671/download

Here is a copy of the report by the US DOJ.

Before you say people ask their foreign dogs to help, you think anyone in msia got so much power until can influence the US DOJ? Even the PM also cannot influence.

RCECAP is giving me alot of stress now.

Every time it drop, i get more excited and i want to top up. My cost is RM1.55. I keep thinking wont get chance to buy at this price, and always scared it shoots up.

But on the other hand, i know PH is going to win elections, and cause market to drop for a few weeks to months from May onwards. So i better save money to shoot during then. Right now, i'm 92.5% invested with no margin. Id like to be at 80-85% invested when market dives.

Pening man.

If you look at their earnings from 2004 to 2012. Every single year they make more money.

Only after 2012 there was a major impairment as BNM, forced personal loans to be maximum 10 year and cap the loan payments to 60% of salary.

Before this, they were loaning them at 20-25 year tenure. And more than 60% cut. Imagine this, people paying you 20% effective interest rate for 20-25 year. Wow. Just wow.

After that impairment (when BNM forced the tenure short, they had to ask for the money back from all their debtors, making a significant portion of them bankrupt), its back to business. Just less lucrative, but still very lucrative. Personal finance etc is just one of the best business in the world.

They are a few basic factors on why i think their revenues and earnings will generally go up on a longer period. A lot of it is human nature, some of it is due to the nature of their customer base.

On the sukuk issue. That is a money raising method, a way for them to leverage up. Not make money. And the method they use to raise money is just, wow. You pay a little bit more compared to a bond issue or loan. But your risk is so much lower, all of it is apportioned to other people.

Take a look at the report by maybank if you want to understand further.


Posted by paperplane > Apr 3, 2018 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

Rcecap I am rather concern. Their income 8ncreases this few years is mainly due to the sukuk? I doubt also if can last long, not sure about the sukuk things, maybe you can help us understand more as your auditor field so has more insights and understanding on this.

Valuation wise its pretty ok. But given the bad market environment now, there are cheaper.

I'm not sure how long this condition of cheap raw material will last. Current PE of 6.7 is due to record earnings. Normal earnings is more like 12. Not take into account the debt yet as well.

And end of the day, this is a cost based business with very little to zero moat. Pretty good as a 3-6 month trade, maybe a year. But probably a bad idea to hold long term.

I would suggest timecom, guaranteed 20% increase in rev and operating earnings this year.

But PE is 27 hahahaha. So its at FV, and fail at kyy less than 10pe requirement.

As for RCECAP. I'd rather he stay away. That one no need his help to fry. Sooner or later will go up.

Not for sendai and jaks.


Posted by SuperPanda > Apr 3, 2018 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

always rmmbr KYY quote:

"i am not obligue to tell you when i sell"

to play KYY counter, must sell b4 he sells, as simple as that.

I don't think Optimus bought OTB's subscription.

If he did, he would not criticize so loudly, or lose so much money.

For 3-6 month or 1 year based trades. OTB's research is one of the best.

You'll only lose money if you stupid and go max margin. If you size your bets properly. You will be very happy with OTB over the last few years.

PWORTH at 0.175 looks really good imho. But if you look at production volume and revenue.

The increase in revenue and profit is not in line with the increased production. Could be startup problems.

KYY can buy muda and orna i guess. those looks like it fits his requirement.

Masteel, csc etc also looks ok ish.

Thank you SSLEE for replying GoodCompanies.

His answer personally left me so dumbfounded i dont even know how to reply. And im also still working. No time to write essay for him to read haha.

No idea where the price will move.

But the discount to intrinsic value is enormous for me now.

stklearner @Jon Choivo

do you expect this stk to move up soon and you will miss out if you dont topup now ?
02/04/2018 10:08

Really conflicted now.

Should i put money in buy more now. Or wait till may, when i think PH will win, and cause market to crash temporarily.

Koon Yew Yin,

With respect. What did tan sri nathan and his execs say about his long long long overdue receivables?

When the customers want to pay? What is the reason for the long delay.

Can say the same for ekovest lah to be fair. The highways is worth more than the current market cap.

You have a good point.

This one is cleaner. For me at least. Eko is a decent investment though.


Flintstones Why do investors like WCE? The same undervalued situation is happening in Ekovest where the market dismissed the value of Duke 3. Ekovest highway is proven and has secured funding. I think there is much more certainty in Ekovest in terms of traffic as well as construction progress
29/03/2018 15:34

1. AT 53.5 SEN WITH NTA OVER RM1.45
A HUGE 60% DISCOUNT. BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY

Plenitude bigger.

2. P/E ONLY 3.8 SO CAN MAKE BACK CAPITAL BY ONLY 3.8 SHORT YEARS.
CASH IN BANK GIVES ONLY 3% YIELD OR P/E 33.3. SO IT WILL TAKE 33.3 YEARS TO DOUBLE YOUR MONEY.

Most if due to one off investment gain. Remove that, pe turn to more than 10.

3. SO ALL HOLDING TA ENTERPRIZE IS HOLDING A VALUE GROWTH STOCK.

Its an NTA play, not growth stock.

4. PLUS THE ADDED BOOSTER OF GOVT STOCK MARKET STIMULATION BY REMOVING STAMP FEES FOR 2ND AND 3RD LINERS, EASE OF MARGIN AND ALLOWING SHORT SELLING.

TA is not the only broker in malaysia, why not kenanga. Trading volume falls when market is bearish. So this point is actually irrelevent.

5. TA IS THEREFORE A CANDIDATE FOR PRIVATISATION LIKE OSK, HWANG, KAF, BJ CAPITAL AND HL CAPITAL.

So many companies are good candidates for privatization. Does not mean it will happen. If you recommend 100 co for privatization, one of them is bound to come true.

Even without impairment, they lost 180m last quarter.

Malakoff is giving more dividend than its profit.

Its essentially cutting into its future capex for this.

http://www.rce.com.my/docs/news/Maybank%20Research%20Report%20-%20RCE%20Capital%20Berhad%2020.09.2016.pdf

http://www.rce.com.my/docs/news/Kenanga%20Report.pdf

Yeah, not that big of a deal i guess.

They can still do the contracts for iwcity.

Just does not make sense to me. Botak is not making any money buying iwcity, since he is not selling his stake at all.





Posted by paperplane > Mar 29, 2018 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

well, different ppl got different perspective.
Some think not worth to takeover IWCITY at 1.50, some think is cheap based on land values etc.

Anyway, if failed, ekovest still can buy IWCITY at open mkt mah. no harm mah

I have no idea what you see in SAPRNG, but its clear you eat your own cooking.

Good luck.


Posted by hng33 > Mar 29, 2018 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

Now its very clear second opportunity return for those miss to buy on weakness, the decision is yours. bear own risk, enjoy own reward. Cheers

You can get in open market cheaper. But it will take a long time, and its not possible to buy all.

Good luck buying up 40% of a company without affecting the price. 1.5 seemed fair to me.


Posted by weng > Mar 29, 2018 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

Jon, it is indeed a good news.
Iwcity can be bought at much lower price in future.

this means its overvalued to begin with.


Posted by Ekkram > Mar 29, 2018 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

To drop 40 sen easy fast like no tomorrow, to climb back 40sen hell take ages!

Why is it a positive?

I think its a good thing to buy up IWCITY for 1.5

Omighty,

You won't find me contending that goodwill zero valuation! Haha

Not a precise as i would like it, since usually goodwill is done with DCF, and you dont take into account real goodwill, like brands (heim etc). But the essence is right.

Just bought a little to round up my number. Aih, sad. Went up today, had to pay more.

I am somewhat worried for you now, cause it appears that alot of the reason you buy is due to your perception/impression that im a good analyst.

I should raise the point that i messed up on my valuation of WCEBHD, which reduced the margin of safety from 61% to 38%. (in essence, i forgotten that adding funding needed could be from share issuance and not borrowings).

In addition, my public track record only starts from last year. I had a gain of 13% (which as CharlesT very correctly stated, even a donkey can gain 13% in a bull year), while i am down something like 14% this year so far. Which means all i have lost all my paper gains last year and more.

So i may very well be one of those people who only know how to talk about investing, but actually suck at it.

I would highly highly suggest, you do your own reading (again, refer to the post above) and then determine if you would buy this stock if i wasn't here, or better yet, if i was selling.

As always, i would suggest you do not buy too much. Even i don't dare hold more than 25%. And its only 21% in my portfolio now. At the end of the day, it is what you don't know that you don't know that will kill you. All we can do is diversify a bit.

Feel free to find me on fb and we can talk there.



Posted by TakeProfits > Mar 28, 2018 11:21 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks Jon...Very kind of you..Facebook, I bolui lar. I will add more rce cap. Limited funds but looking for stock with biggest upsides!! Help please. Thanks.

:)

Dont buy loh. Rubbish co.

On a more serious note.

You can read this, a bit of research i did for valuation of financial institutions.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

And you can go read the report by kenanga and maybank on rcecap for some further understanding.

Let me know if you think i messed up.


Posted by WaAdaLui > Mar 28, 2018 11:41 PM | Report Abuse

General loan financing services provider RCE Capital Bhd said it "does not compete for market share"
Speaking to reporters after its annual general meeting, its chief executive officer Loh Kam Chuin acknowledged that within the Malaysian personal financing sphere which is worth about RM160 billion, RCE Capital commands only about 1% share of the market.
"We don't compete for market share. We are on the niche side and serve markets that are unserved by the bigger players," Loh said.

No compete, how to expand;
No expand, how to growth;
No growth; Share price how to up!!!!!!!!!

Probably i guess, but sucks for you cause drop 17% over the last 2 days.

Can buy like 1% of portfolio, and every 20% drop top up 1% loh.

Now i know what Warren Buffet mean by being a sex addict in a whorehouse.

So many cheap stuff.

John,

As investors, you must be conservative. Accounting have their own standards of recognition. It over values and undervalues certain things.

Omighty,

Those holes are the ones with trillions of cubic metres of gas etc right?

Its probably a touch to excessive on your end. But i have a problem putting a value on SAPRNG that is not zero anyway. The company is just making money for the banks only. Investors get nothing.

Unrealised forex gain.

Lol.